ICT YT - 2022-02-25 - ICT Mentorship 2022 Episode 12.srt
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2022-02-28 11:16
| 1 | 00:00:04,620 --> 00:00:15,540 | ICT: Alright folks, welcome back. I do hope everyone's doing well. So we're looking at episode 12. This lesson in lecture is going to be on the topic of |
| 2 | 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:26,820 | market structure for precision technicians. Now niggly going into this, this is an advanced price action theory, you're going to have a lot of questions, it's |
| 3 | 00:00:26,820 --> 00:00:35,700 | going to cause all kinds of anxiety for those that just feel like you have to mark the first time you watch a video. Trust me, you will not and you cannot |
| 4 | 00:00:35,700 --> 00:00:45,240 | learn this in one video. Okay? This is actually going to be a lesson even my paid mentorship group has yet to see. Okay, so I want to give you something |
| 5 | 00:00:45,240 --> 00:00:58,260 | that's fresh, something that is deep, that will allow you don't your charts and start studying a little bit more well, deeper than the normal higher high higher |
| 6 | 00:00:58,260 --> 00:01:03,060 | low idea that is made up of the retail view of market structure. |
| 7 | 00:01:08,190 --> 00:01:19,350 | Alright, here is the NASDAQ March contract for 2022. Out here so he already hissing and moaning the forex traders in my group, When are you ever going to |
| 8 | 00:01:19,350 --> 00:01:33,750 | talk about euro dollar? Well, let me remind you, what I'm teaching works in forex. Okay? It works in stocks, it works in bonds. It's up to you to decide |
| 9 | 00:01:33,750 --> 00:01:43,230 | what asset class you're gonna work with. Okay, so I'm teaching price. This is the asset class that's moving around nicely. So I'm using it as a medium. Okay, |
| 10 | 00:01:43,530 --> 00:01:55,410 | you could just as easily go into a Aussie dollar or pound yen chart, and you'll see these things happening as well. Okay. Trust me, we'll get into Forex again. |
| 11 | 00:01:55,650 --> 00:02:05,400 | Okay, I haven't abandoned Forex, I just want to mine this beam. And it's available in volatility right now with the index futures. Alright, so obviously, |
| 12 | 00:02:05,400 --> 00:02:14,910 | we can see, with the benefit of hindsight, that the things we were looking for in price action has come to fruition, we're looking for the run below these lows |
| 13 | 00:02:14,910 --> 00:02:28,110 | in here, we got that we were looking for a run and rebalance back up into this period I got it did so handsomely, broke lower, overnight, with all the wartime |
| 14 | 00:02:28,290 --> 00:02:39,300 | things that are going around the globe. And you know, what I'm referring to that cost, a little bit of excitement on the downside. And then we're back above the |
| 15 | 00:02:39,300 --> 00:02:48,210 | short term low. I'm not convinced at this point, that we have made a low, so that way we can put that to bed right now. I'm not in the business of picking |
| 16 | 00:02:48,210 --> 00:02:57,840 | tops and bottoms. So if you feel like you're gonna go out there and do that, just letting you know that I teach my paid group not to do that. And I don't go |
| 17 | 00:02:57,840 --> 00:03:08,910 | out there actively trying to do that either. But we're gonna go into a deep dive of market structure inside this area. Now, before I do this, I want you to |
| 18 | 00:03:08,910 --> 00:03:17,190 | understand this part, this is the part that seems boring. This is the part that gets the most complaints from those individuals that will never ever do well, or |
| 19 | 00:03:17,190 --> 00:03:29,640 | succeed in this, because they want five minute trainers for something that's extremely technical, and you just can't strip it down to very easy ideas. Okay, |
| 20 | 00:03:29,640 --> 00:03:38,280 | so it's going to take a little bit of study thinking and homework of you going through old price data. And you'll start seeing these things that I promise you, |
| 21 | 00:03:39,180 --> 00:03:48,870 | this video will cause a light bulb moment for you. And you'll start to see things that are in the charts all the time, but you are not aware of it. And |
| 22 | 00:03:49,680 --> 00:04:00,660 | it'll also allow you to go back into old moves and see that this is in fact very true. And you can use it to confirm or negate a price move. I get a lot of |
| 23 | 00:04:00,660 --> 00:04:10,230 | questions through TradingView people posting, Hey, yo, can you answer this for me? Can you answer that for me? I don't make it a business of doing that. |
| 24 | 00:04:10,260 --> 00:04:19,500 | Because I don't have a lot of time for it. But I use those questions in these talking points in my lectures, not only in this mentorship, but in my private |
| 25 | 00:04:19,500 --> 00:04:33,480 | group. So the questions I get a lot is how do I know if I'm going to sell above old high? How do I know it's not going to keep going higher? Well, that's the |
| 26 | 00:04:33,480 --> 00:04:45,210 | underlying market structure. And the trust in the factors that I'm going to kind of like Teach you tonight. Me teaching it to you is not going to transpose my |
| 27 | 00:04:45,210 --> 00:04:53,340 | trust that has to be developed in your learning curve. It's going to take time, how long is it going to take I don't know all of you are going to do it |
| 28 | 00:04:53,340 --> 00:05:01,710 | differently. But you're going to arrive right on time. Exactly when you should. That's when you're going to get it all Okay, it's a matter of how much time and |
| 29 | 00:05:01,740 --> 00:05:13,470 | effort you put into studying it. Because these candlesticks, you can make them say anything, you want the beat on them, and they'll submit to anything. But you |
| 30 | 00:05:13,470 --> 00:05:23,760 | want to know what they're likely to be hinting at. And I'm going to give you those clues tonight. But in here, we're going to take a deep dive into that |
| 31 | 00:05:23,760 --> 00:05:36,120 | price action rate there. Alright, so we are looking inside the fair value gap on the daily chart, this was the high end of that period, I got this with the low |
| 32 | 00:05:36,120 --> 00:05:50,760 | and the fair value got the timeframe on this chart, as you can see here, one hour. And I've outlined market structure in the idea of long term high, long |
| 33 | 00:05:50,760 --> 00:06:04,860 | term low, short term high, short term low. And in between those two swing points, there's an intermediate term high and an intermediate term low. When we |
| 34 | 00:06:04,860 --> 00:06:05,790 | look at price, |
| 35 | 00:06:07,260 --> 00:06:16,830 | we're not looking for just the simple, higher high, higher low, therefore it's a bullish market or uptrend. That's not what I'm looking at. I'm looking at does |
| 36 | 00:06:16,830 --> 00:06:30,420 | the market have a reason to go up for buy side liquidity or buy stopped? Or is it likely go up? to rebalance an imbalance? Which is like a feared icon? Or is |
| 37 | 00:06:30,420 --> 00:06:43,230 | it likely to go lower to sweep out short term lows? For sell side liquidity or sell stops? Or is it likely to go down to rebalance an old imbalance? Or a fair |
| 38 | 00:06:43,230 --> 00:06:56,460 | value get below market price? That is the number one question that I have before I sit down in front of my charts. That's what I'm looking for. What is the |
| 39 | 00:06:56,700 --> 00:07:07,950 | current market narrative? What is it likely to be doing right now? I don't care about patterns in price action. I don't care about anything harmonic. I'm not |
| 40 | 00:07:07,950 --> 00:07:18,330 | looking for any kind of Elliot waves. I'm not looking for any kind of ratio idea. I'm not looking for anything that you can attribute to a retail mindset. |
| 41 | 00:07:19,380 --> 00:07:29,310 | Nothing except for those two questions. Is it likely to go up for stops? Or go down for stocks? Of course, you're gonna go higher to rebalance, or lower to |
| 42 | 00:07:29,310 --> 00:07:43,080 | rebalance. Now, how do I arrive? At that idea? Is it gonna go higher as you can go lower? Because that kind of leans on that question I told you many times, if |
| 43 | 00:07:43,080 --> 00:07:51,930 | there's one question I get asked the most it's TTP bias. In other words, you want to know, where's the market going next. And that's good. That's the next |
| 44 | 00:07:51,930 --> 00:08:01,950 | draw on liquidity. But the daily range will not always submit to that bullish or bearish, right from the opening, go higher, or wait for the opening go lower. |
| 45 | 00:08:02,280 --> 00:08:12,750 | Sometimes you'll have consolidation intraday, and you may have been trying to take a trade that was based on an idea that you came to, that will be bullish. |
| 46 | 00:08:13,350 --> 00:08:19,890 | And maybe it did give you an opportunity to be in a trade that was profitable for a period of time, but you held on to it thinking the daily range was going |
| 47 | 00:08:19,890 --> 00:08:30,930 | to keep on going higher. And it turned on you. These ideas I'm going to teach you in this lecture here will help you identify the likelihood that your idea is |
| 48 | 00:08:30,930 --> 00:08:42,330 | probably been proven, inaccurate, but you have to be receptive to the clues that price is giving you. That's the number one reason why I abandoned indicators. |
| 49 | 00:08:42,330 --> 00:08:52,620 | And if you have anything on the charts that cover up candles, or draw your attention to something that you're putting on the chart, and I call that you |
| 50 | 00:08:52,620 --> 00:09:03,000 | facetiously lipstick, okay? That's what this chart is shown here. It's this list that gets me communicating how I am internalizing this price structure, this |
| 51 | 00:09:03,000 --> 00:09:11,880 | fractal in price. I'm looking at it with this idea. Now I'm looking at it in a matter of seconds, I come to this conclusion, I'm looking at the highs. And I'm |
| 52 | 00:09:11,880 --> 00:09:20,460 | looking at the relationships between each swing high each swing low. And I'm coming to a conclusion studying one swing at a time. And I'm going to come up |
| 53 | 00:09:20,460 --> 00:09:28,620 | with the idea that it's likely to go lower because that daily chart, I called it in front of all of you I outlined I told you where I was going to go so that way |
| 54 | 00:09:28,620 --> 00:09:36,570 | we understand one another. I'm teaching something directly proved before the fact. So it's not like me coming back to this area here. Because if you haven't |
| 55 | 00:09:36,570 --> 00:09:43,200 | watched the videos prior to that, say you just found this YouTube channel and you're watching this when it sounds like the typical guy that comes on YouTube |
| 56 | 00:09:43,200 --> 00:09:52,500 | says here's something that happened, you know, and I can sit down and look and appear smart, because it's already happened and I have no real risk in being |
| 57 | 00:09:52,530 --> 00:10:03,720 | wrong. I told you it was gonna go lower from here, and it did. Now I'm going to take you inside that price action An outline what it is that I look for what it |
| 58 | 00:10:03,720 --> 00:10:14,070 | is that I looked for at the time. And how I felt confident was going to go lower. Okay. So right away, we know that prices traded up to the high end of |
| 59 | 00:10:14,070 --> 00:10:24,090 | that fair value gap. And again, this level here is that daily chart, let me go back up one chart. That's this level here. Okay, it's on this candle that low. |
| 60 | 00:10:24,570 --> 00:10:32,850 | And the low of the fair value gap is this candles high. Dropping down into the hourly chart, that's the high end of the fair value gap. This is the low in the |
| 61 | 00:10:32,850 --> 00:10:43,350 | fair value gap, again, on an hourly chart, so that we have our bearings. So when the market traded up into and just above that fair value gap high, this red |
| 62 | 00:10:43,350 --> 00:10:56,670 | level here, once it started to break down and go lower, it traded back down into this candlesticks, high. So we're trading back inside this range and range |
| 63 | 00:10:56,670 --> 00:10:57,030 | bound. |
| 64 | 00:10:58,410 --> 00:11:12,870 | Since I am expecting the daily chart to be the parent of this price structure, all minor lower timeframe swings are going to be subordinate to it. And what |
| 65 | 00:11:12,870 --> 00:11:23,910 | does that mean? This now is a long term high, I do not expect this high to be broken to the upside. Should it be broken to the upside, that means that my |
| 66 | 00:11:23,910 --> 00:11:35,250 | daily analysis, expecting this level here to hold price and to be a factor in the algorithm repricing and going lower at a later time. If it goes above that, |
| 67 | 00:11:35,250 --> 00:11:46,290 | then I'm probably wrong in my analysis. So therefore, I demand more information by studying more price action sitting on my hands. Or if I have a trade on, it |
| 68 | 00:11:46,290 --> 00:11:58,470 | means that I have to admit that I'm wrong. And the stock out that may occur is just me, managing risk is a losing transaction. It does not mean your model is |
| 69 | 00:11:58,470 --> 00:12:09,330 | flawed, it does not mean that you're a failed trader, it just means that that transaction was not a profitable, and it's just a cost of doing business. But as |
| 70 | 00:12:09,330 --> 00:12:19,590 | long as price remains the low this high. My idea is this is a long term high, because it's framed on what a higher timeframe resistance level, we're going to |
| 71 | 00:12:19,590 --> 00:12:27,270 | talk in terms of retail ideas, so that way, we can understand something in a simplistic manner. But we'll build on the ideas that will help move you away |
| 72 | 00:12:27,270 --> 00:12:35,970 | from simple support resistant ideas. So this long term high should remain intact. In other words, price should not go higher than that, we trade down to |
| 73 | 00:12:35,970 --> 00:12:46,230 | the discount level of the low end of that fair value get in starts to find support, rallies back up, trades near the high but does not take that out very |
| 74 | 00:12:46,230 --> 00:13:02,460 | important. Once it starts to break down and consolidate in here, retail ideas will see a lot of trust in the idea that's potentially a bull flag. I love |
| 75 | 00:13:02,460 --> 00:13:15,630 | seeing those patterns because I like to fade them. So that's a false bull flag. And then we see price break down like this. And then rally back up every single |
| 76 | 00:13:15,630 --> 00:13:28,830 | time. This is important, this is the part where you start writing down these details. Every single time. Price rebalances an imbalance like we have this |
| 77 | 00:13:28,830 --> 00:13:38,430 | candles low, this candle is high, we have that one single candle passing down like that, once that rebalances by going up here that swing high, from this |
| 78 | 00:13:38,430 --> 00:13:47,220 | high, this high in this high as a swing high right here, I immediately label that in my mind, not on my chart because I don't want anything distracting me. |
| 79 | 00:13:48,090 --> 00:13:57,630 | If I have these things written on my chart at the time, it's gonna be a distraction to me. But the way I'm internalizing it, you'll see what I mean, as |
| 80 | 00:13:57,630 --> 00:14:08,880 | I go through this lecture. Every rebalance of an old imbalance, that swing that's created at that moment, I immediately labeled that in my mind as an |
| 81 | 00:14:08,880 --> 00:14:18,270 | intermediate term high. Or in this case, as we came back down to fielding this by dropping down here. That's an intermediate term low. What does that mean? |
| 82 | 00:14:18,270 --> 00:14:32,520 | What's the significance of that? Typically, what you'll see is an intermediate term low has a higher short term low to the right of it in a higher short term |
| 83 | 00:14:32,520 --> 00:14:45,000 | load to the left of it. This inmate term low forms by rebalancing but it has a higher short term high here. But then the market trades over here off of this |
| 84 | 00:14:45,000 --> 00:15:02,640 | short term, low he rallies up, but it fails. It fails in here. We're going to anticipate that failure. Whereas if you're looking at this low high, higher low, |
| 85 | 00:15:04,020 --> 00:15:19,410 | failed, higher high, higher low. So what's forming here? A pennant or triangle pattern, right? How do you know which side is going to break out? That was one |
| 86 | 00:15:19,410 --> 00:15:28,560 | of the questions I had all the time as a developing student back in the 90s 1992 99. Three, I was buying every book and get my hands on. And I got the |
| 87 | 00:15:28,560 --> 00:15:31,950 | book, The John Murphy, |
| 88 | 00:15:33,390 --> 00:15:41,700 | technical analysis, the financial markets book, which is the retail traders Bible. Okay, that book is so useful in terms of just reading it knowing what not |
| 89 | 00:15:41,700 --> 00:15:52,590 | to do. Because that's what the 90% crowd follows when you look at price action still to this day, because it's always regurgitated in some way, shape or form. |
| 90 | 00:15:53,130 --> 00:16:01,200 | Someone's teaching that same idea uptrending trend lines, which are so subjective, how do you know what swing low to attach for trendline? There's lots |
| 91 | 00:16:01,200 --> 00:16:11,970 | of swing lows in here, how do you draw it? It's all subjective. So you have to have a way to reduce it down to I hate to say it like this, but it really is no |
| 92 | 00:16:11,970 --> 00:16:21,990 | better way to say it, but you have to break it down into a science. We don't do technical analysis, we do technical science, okay, you have to be able to relate |
| 93 | 00:16:21,990 --> 00:16:33,240 | to certain things way out and measure what these factors are within price action, which is not based on hypothetical guesswork, or some kind of a harmonic |
| 94 | 00:16:33,240 --> 00:16:46,290 | animal pattern, which to me makes no sense. You have to look at the relationship to price action, and the relationship of how it behaves. What is it indicating? |
| 95 | 00:16:46,290 --> 00:16:57,330 | What is it showing? The market has traded higher and then consolidated. We failed to go above this important high back here, that's a long term high, then |
| 96 | 00:16:57,330 --> 00:17:06,990 | we have in term high. Why? Why is this intermediate term high, because we have a short term high here, and a short term high here. So between two short term |
| 97 | 00:17:06,990 --> 00:17:19,800 | highs, the highest high between those, that's an area term high. But the main takeaway for your notes so far is anytime a imbalance, like this big candle up |
| 98 | 00:17:19,830 --> 00:17:30,240 | is rebounds, that becomes an enemy term low, just as well, on the opposite end, this down move here, that's a fair value gap. Soon as it rebalances there, |
| 99 | 00:17:30,600 --> 00:17:42,570 | that's what I classify as an intermediate term high. Now, here's where we take a huge step forward. Classically defined by Larry Williams, and you can see where |
| 100 | 00:17:42,570 --> 00:17:53,730 | I made a departure from his works, okay. It was very influential in the beginning of my development. And it was a point of argument internally with me |
| 101 | 00:17:53,730 --> 00:18:07,590 | when I was watching him teach it on his VHS course, the futures millionaires, confidential trading course. That idea of his approach to market structure, he |
| 102 | 00:18:07,590 --> 00:18:16,170 | teaches a little bit of it in this book. Okay, so it's long term secrets to short term trading by Larry Williams. There's not a lot of books, I have over |
| 103 | 00:18:16,170 --> 00:18:29,040 | 2000 Some books. And I can tell you literally, there's a handful of books out of all my collection that are useful. And I can't bring myself to throw them away. |
| 104 | 00:18:29,070 --> 00:18:37,980 | Because number one, I paid a lot of money for them. And it's just nostalgia, me chasing all that stuff in books. And it's always the same stuff that never |
| 105 | 00:18:37,980 --> 00:18:50,490 | really works. The ideas that he teaches in this book here, they were taught in a early work by him in regards to market structure, how to internalize price |
| 106 | 00:18:50,490 --> 00:19:01,290 | structure, how to look at price, not just from a higher, high or low because that's too myopic. Okay. It's a pursuit, especially in this generation today. |
| 107 | 00:19:01,500 --> 00:19:12,210 | It's a pursuit of simplicity, for the sake of simplicity alone, not for the sake of getting to the truth or the heart of the matter. And that's what makes me a |
| 108 | 00:19:12,570 --> 00:19:24,870 | stumbling block for many of you that are younger, because you want right now instant gratification, you want instant reward for the menial time that you |
| 109 | 00:19:24,870 --> 00:19:33,630 | invest. When it's surprising, the learn that you're going to take a lot more time than you first thought it was gonna take the learn how to do this |
| 110 | 00:19:33,630 --> 00:19:47,070 | exceptionally well. But for an additional view, on how I built this understanding and price action, it originally came from his idea of market |
| 111 | 00:19:47,070 --> 00:19:54,630 | structure. But if you study what I'm going to show you in this video lecture here, my pay group has never seen this before. And you're seeing it for the |
| 112 | 00:19:54,630 --> 00:20:05,640 | first time. Okay, so when you hear people talk about Arca structure and Looking for a higher high, higher, high, higher high and having successive lower lows |
| 113 | 00:20:05,640 --> 00:20:16,650 | behind them, and then you had a failed higher high, and then it breaks the swing low right before that failed higher high, they look at that as a change in |
| 114 | 00:20:16,650 --> 00:20:25,530 | trend, not all the time. Many times, that's a good buying opportunity for me, because really, that's just coming back down to a deep discount. And I'm going |
| 115 | 00:20:25,530 --> 00:20:26,220 | to buy those |
| 116 | 00:20:27,510 --> 00:20:39,420 | and continue higher. So it's a little tricky, if you don't understand the higher timeframe, which is what these red levels are, that's higher timeframe, the |
| 117 | 00:20:39,420 --> 00:20:53,370 | heirarchy in parent to child price swings, okay? So that we the subordination that the smaller timeframe price swings, adhere to, from the higher Time Frame |
| 118 | 00:20:53,670 --> 00:21:05,040 | is directly linked to the order flow on this higher timeframe charts, synonymous one of my saying, the daily chart has the bulk of the volume that's coming into |
| 119 | 00:21:05,040 --> 00:21:18,150 | that marketplace. There isn't a lot of volume coming in on a one minute chart. That's not to change the importance or reduce the importance rather, of an of a |
| 120 | 00:21:18,180 --> 00:21:28,920 | one minute chart within the proper context and market structure that's underway. So you can use a one minute chart to navigate because as a smaller retail |
| 121 | 00:21:28,920 --> 00:21:42,780 | trader, which is who we all are. But we don't trade with retail logic, is it? There's a separation from what we're trying to do in price versus the collective |
| 122 | 00:21:42,780 --> 00:21:49,650 | out there that learned from books and things like that. Now, that may sound like an oxymoron, cuz I'm pointing to a book right here on the screen. But the idea |
| 123 | 00:21:49,650 --> 00:22:01,530 | is that he teaches early in this book about market structure, I think is the whole Well, the only thing I found useful in that book, I have a lot of respect |
| 124 | 00:22:01,530 --> 00:22:11,400 | for this man. But out of that entire book, his discussions about market structure, that's the only thing I find is useful from that book. So if you're |
| 125 | 00:22:11,400 --> 00:22:24,750 | reading anything else in that book, you know, great, if you'd like it. But my only addition to this for more research for more of a foundational idea where I |
| 126 | 00:22:24,750 --> 00:22:37,560 | got this from, you're gonna hear people say, he teaches Larry Williams market structure? No, I don't. The ideas that came early on in my learning came from |
| 127 | 00:22:37,560 --> 00:22:47,430 | this means and interpretation of market structure. But I want to take you into the chart now and show you what he's not teaching in that book, what he hasn't |
| 128 | 00:22:47,430 --> 00:22:59,250 | taught in any of his works. And it gets a little bit closer to the heart of the matter. And you'll find that it's really interesting. So if we have a imbalance |
| 129 | 00:22:59,250 --> 00:23:10,890 | that's rebalancing we have an enemy term high. Shouldn't an intermediate term high have a lower short term high to the right of it? Any lower short term high? |
| 130 | 00:23:11,160 --> 00:23:24,270 | To the left of it? Yes. Mr. Williams says so in his book, also, what I discovered in my own study, no one taught this to me. Okay, I kind of pioneered |
| 131 | 00:23:24,270 --> 00:23:36,300 | this idea. silanis Instagram guys out there saying they pioneered something in the last two years of trading. The idea of a intermediate term high, not being |
| 132 | 00:23:36,300 --> 00:23:48,030 | higher than the short term high to the left of it, or the short term high to the right of it. In other words, it's going lower. This an ideal scenario should be |
| 133 | 00:23:48,030 --> 00:24:06,510 | this high should be above both short term highs. But it's not. It's not. So what is it doing? It's only rebalancing this. And where is it likely to go? Well, if |
| 134 | 00:24:06,510 --> 00:24:19,620 | you're thinking in terms of a pennant or triangle pattern, it's indicating to me soon as candle starts to go up like this. This candle in this candle, why not |
| 135 | 00:24:19,620 --> 00:24:29,190 | this candle to? Well, this candle only has this low here. This candle is an up close. But this starts the last two up close candles right before this move |
| 136 | 00:24:29,190 --> 00:24:42,600 | down. This is important because we're going to look inside this shaded area and how we can use highly precise ideas within this order block. I'm anticipating |
| 137 | 00:24:42,600 --> 00:24:53,820 | this run up with these candles, forming an order block where everyone else is teaching the idea of the last up close candle before the down move. That is not |
| 138 | 00:24:54,360 --> 00:25:01,920 | my order block. That is not my order block. So you stop teaching that because it's not accurate. call it something else don't call it order block. |
| 139 | 00:25:03,929 --> 00:25:13,499 | This movement here, these two green candles that are going on, I'm watching these as they form live with the expectation because this imbalance has been |
| 140 | 00:25:13,499 --> 00:25:25,349 | rebalanced here, this swing highs and the intermediate term high, I do not. I do not expect this highly taken out. So I'm already forecasting in anticipating a |
| 141 | 00:25:25,349 --> 00:25:36,539 | failed price swing in here. Every time this green candles are forming, I'm looking at that as a bearish order block. So from the beginning of that candles |
| 142 | 00:25:36,539 --> 00:25:51,119 | low, I'm looking in time on lower timeframe charts lower than what? Well, this is a one hour chart. So what's the timeframe below that? I dropped to a 15 |
| 143 | 00:25:51,119 --> 00:26:02,669 | minute timeframe. Now, before I get any further, just know that the range between this long term high and this long term low. That range is going to be |
| 144 | 00:26:02,669 --> 00:26:15,179 | used for targeting purposes. And I'll get into that in a moment. But these up close candles from the hourly perspective, that's the range for my hourly Porter |
| 145 | 00:26:15,179 --> 00:26:35,279 | block. Inside that range, I can be hunting fair value gaps. lightbulb, I don't need to see the market trade down below the last highest up close candle. I |
| 146 | 00:26:35,279 --> 00:26:45,179 | don't need to because I understand what I'm looking for inside market structure, actual market structure, not just higher, high higher low. I'm looking at the |
| 147 | 00:26:45,179 --> 00:26:57,239 | underpinnings of the marketplace and I'm examining what is it doing high to high Low to low within a higher Time Frame premise. Remember the premise was, we were |
| 148 | 00:26:57,239 --> 00:27:07,199 | going to go up to this upper level here rebalance, and then eventually trade lower down below sellside liquidity in this fractal I'm using this one here just |
| 149 | 00:27:07,199 --> 00:27:20,189 | to illustrate the idea silhouettes up here. It's going to make a short pattern, something bearish to get short on then work towards going down to that low. Now |
| 150 | 00:27:20,189 --> 00:27:31,259 | clearly you can see it here, though so nicely. But I want to take you into this price action right here. Before I zoom in, look closely, what do you see? Pause |
| 151 | 00:27:31,259 --> 00:27:47,999 | the video. And that balls in the video ICT and you can't make me Alright. Great in here, you can see a small little imbalance this one single candle like that |
| 152 | 00:27:48,089 --> 00:27:58,919 | right there. That's the same thing that was occurring in this move here on the hourly chart that gets rebalanced there. Here we have a smaller version of it. |
| 153 | 00:27:59,249 --> 00:28:08,639 | That is a fractal. That's something that repeats on a smaller or higher timeframe that's similar in its formation. It won't be identical. But it's |
| 154 | 00:28:08,639 --> 00:28:19,649 | closely related to the general idea. If it trades back to this candles, hi, don't worry, I'll zoom in in a moment. That's your entry right there. That's |
| 155 | 00:28:19,709 --> 00:28:27,749 | aggressive. And I don't have a problem being aggressive if I know what I'm looking for. But there's also an imbalance in here. And it rebalances that right |
| 156 | 00:28:27,749 --> 00:28:39,119 | there. See that. Now, once we establish the market structure on an hourly chart, I'm not going down into the lower timeframes below it and marking out all the |
| 157 | 00:28:39,119 --> 00:28:47,729 | swing highs and swing lows, either that that's overkill, I just need to know what I'm looking for on a timeframe I'm trading on. The logic is based on that |
| 158 | 00:28:47,729 --> 00:28:59,729 | daily chart that it's going up into this imbalance to go lower. The hourly chart frames my trade. It gives me what I'm looking for to start hunting entry |
| 159 | 00:28:59,729 --> 00:29:09,749 | techniques. Now the 15 minute timeframe, that's the bellwether, this is where it's going to give me the actual get in get out. But I might not like the risk |
| 160 | 00:29:09,749 --> 00:29:22,559 | parameters that's required on this timeframe. So I can go down into the lower timeframes. Should price go lower, and break lower. I'm looking at that short |
| 161 | 00:29:22,559 --> 00:29:32,849 | term low here. And that enemy term low there. If we have a short term low taken out, and an intermediate term loan taken out or just |
| 162 | 00:29:34,350 --> 00:29:46,230 | in return low taken out, then we can go back to the previous long term high, long term low. Now long term high long term low is generally going to be linked |
| 163 | 00:29:46,230 --> 00:29:59,070 | to a higher timeframe daily chart. That might be a price range. It might be a high to a short term low. In this case I'm framing the idea and logic around |
| 164 | 00:29:59,070 --> 00:30:10,590 | that fair value gap. I outlined in front of all of you saying is likely go up their rebalancing, and go lower, and take out the old daily low. There's lots of |
| 165 | 00:30:10,590 --> 00:30:20,670 | ways you can frame your trade. But you have to have something directly linked to that daily chart because the daily chart, that's exactly what institutions are |
| 166 | 00:30:20,670 --> 00:30:29,490 | working off of. That's exactly what banks are working off of. That's where the money is. That's where your bias is going to be determined. That's going to be |
| 167 | 00:30:29,820 --> 00:30:40,020 | what makes or breaks your Trend continuation, that daily chart. So the majority of your time and study should be one determining where that daily charts going |
| 168 | 00:30:40,080 --> 00:30:51,390 | over the next day or two or a week. But you try not to forecast longer than a week. Not that you can't, I'm not suggesting that anyone can't do that. I'm just |
| 169 | 00:30:51,390 --> 00:31:00,720 | saying if, as a developing student, you want to keep your perspective limited to a five day time horizon. And don't be upset if you don't have the entire weekly |
| 170 | 00:31:00,720 --> 00:31:09,690 | range forecast correctly. That's not important. Right now. You're growing, you're trying to learn how to do this. And it's highly technical. No one gets it |
| 171 | 00:31:09,690 --> 00:31:23,730 | overnight. It took me six years. So but it pays off if you stick with it. So if we have a break below and in return low, then we have what a significant break |
| 172 | 00:31:23,760 --> 00:31:31,920 | in market structure. This is something that's more significant is simply then going into a chart saying okay, well, I took out a short term loan, there it is. |
| 173 | 00:31:32,520 --> 00:31:47,490 | See how much more detailed this is. What this tells me is, then I could start using this range high and low and start getting projections them. I can get a |
| 174 | 00:31:47,490 --> 00:32:00,810 | measurement of measuring this high to this low and start replicating that going down. And it'll give me price targets. They're generic price targets. If you |
| 175 | 00:32:00,810 --> 00:32:11,730 | don't want to use that targeting method, this long term low to intermediate term high. If price breaks below here, as it does here, you can simply take your |
| 176 | 00:32:11,730 --> 00:32:22,170 | Fibonacci anchor to the highest high down to the lowest low. And this is what you would get here. Why am I using that? Why am I not using this here to here? |
| 177 | 00:32:22,410 --> 00:32:33,780 | Because this returned back up. This is where all of this move starts right there. This is just the beginning of the framework. This is where the swing |
| 178 | 00:32:33,780 --> 00:32:45,090 | begins on the decline. Follow what I'm saying? I'll say it again. This high in this low that's your framework. The retracement that fails, that starts to |
| 179 | 00:32:45,090 --> 00:32:55,410 | decline begins here at the intermediate term high. So if you anchor your fib to enter a term high down to that low, which is a long term low, the projection is |
| 180 | 00:32:56,070 --> 00:33:05,010 | negative one and a half standard deviation. And there's your low. How much lower than this? Can it go? That's one way of determining. Now I know what you're |
| 181 | 00:33:05,010 --> 00:33:15,090 | asking, what is your fib, settings ICT? There's my fib settings. Okay. I don't talk about everything, because I don't need all the lines. But I'm looking at |
| 182 | 00:33:15,090 --> 00:33:23,190 | measurements like this, with logic behind it. It's not just me randomly going in there. Because I get a lot of quite when I was on baby pips, I got lots of |
| 183 | 00:33:23,190 --> 00:33:29,550 | emails all the time and people would post in the forum. Why are you anchoring your fib to that swing high, and that's in that swing high and not this swing |
| 184 | 00:33:29,550 --> 00:33:39,210 | high? This is what I never taught. This is what I'm showing you today. This is advanced market structure. This is not something you can find in books. Mr. |
| 185 | 00:33:39,210 --> 00:33:47,970 | Williams, I'm sure it doesn't even know it like this. He's rather simplistic in the way he does things. That's the only thing I've really gleaned from him. He's |
| 186 | 00:33:50,940 --> 00:34:00,450 | He's a legend. And don't get me wrong. But he does things rather simplistic, but because of my background is computer programming, and computer science and I |
| 187 | 00:34:00,450 --> 00:34:10,020 | have obsessive compulsive disorder. I need to know why things do what they do. And I need to know everything. Now, I don't know everything. But my pursuit of |
| 188 | 00:34:10,020 --> 00:34:19,350 | knowing everything led me to look at markets like this and internalize how, what the algorithms are dealing, because there has to be a rhyme and reason right? |
| 189 | 00:34:20,130 --> 00:34:29,850 | Like to suggest the idea that these markets are operating under an algorithm. And they're going up and down based on an AI. Artificial Intelligence is |
| 190 | 00:34:29,850 --> 00:34:40,260 | controlling this. It's not your buying and selling pressure. I've said this many times before. But if that is true, and the suspend your disbelief, if you don't |
| 191 | 00:34:40,260 --> 00:34:50,610 | believe there's an algorithm just for the sake of this conversation, let's just say for a moment that you do subscribe to the idea. If there's an algorithm that |
| 192 | 00:34:50,610 --> 00:35:06,600 | means it must follow some form of logic and how does it reference? How far to go up and how far to go down? It cannot see your stop. It doesn't see Michael star. |
| 193 | 00:35:07,080 --> 00:35:25,260 | It doesn't see Renee stop. It doesn't see one stop. It doesn't see Brian. Larry. That's outside of its capability. But it knows where people will have their |
| 194 | 00:35:25,260 --> 00:35:36,870 | thoughts based on these ideas. Short term high short term, low, intermediate term high in return low, long term, low, long term high. And where the |
| 195 | 00:35:36,870 --> 00:35:46,980 | imbalances are? Now already know right now, at this moment right now, your heads are spinning. You're probably sitting here looking at MIT, this is crazy. How |
| 196 | 00:35:46,980 --> 00:35:58,050 | did he come up with this? And how the hell am I going to use it? Exactly. You're going to take time learning this line upon line, precept upon precept here |
| 197 | 00:35:58,050 --> 00:36:10,980 | little, their little, it takes time to do this, okay. But I got requested to teach market structure. And this is my interpretation of market structure, |
| 198 | 00:36:10,980 --> 00:36:21,240 | because I'm leaning on algorithmic principles that are in the marketplace, that can't be taught to you. But I'm creating a language so that way, you can see it |
| 199 | 00:36:21,240 --> 00:36:32,670 | visually in your chart. And you can measure in reference certain things, not exactly like the algorithm does, but very, very close to what it's doing. Which, |
| 200 | 00:36:33,390 --> 00:36:42,300 | in my mind, doesn't really step on anybody's toes now does it. So if we're looking at this little shade of Erin Hallam to zoom in now and get down to the |
| 201 | 00:36:42,300 --> 00:36:52,440 | heart of this teaching, is the same 15 minute time frame to zoom in a little bit more. This is an aggressive entry for going short. Now, that hourly chart was |
| 202 | 00:36:52,440 --> 00:37:07,860 | showing those two candles going up in the 15 minute time frame, it's obviously more candles. So in this upclose candle series of 12345 candles. In that range, |
| 203 | 00:37:07,890 --> 00:37:23,100 | if I get a failure, you get formed with a breakdown like this, notice, I don't need a swing low broken. That is that on the model I'm teaching you, you have to |
| 204 | 00:37:23,100 --> 00:37:33,330 | look for what the short term low been broken at your market structure shift, then you see price go up into that imbalance and then you can go short, or vice |
| 205 | 00:37:33,330 --> 00:37:43,950 | versa when you're going bullish. If you understand market structure with this perception, looking at it from a higher time frame, in anticipating a breakdown, |
| 206 | 00:37:44,100 --> 00:37:55,440 | but then starting to classify each imbalance and swing high and swing low. intermediate term highs and lows are formed at the rebalancing of an imbalance. |
| 207 | 00:37:56,340 --> 00:38:06,720 | Everything he said in the video. Okay, I'm just reiterating. If the intermediate term high is not higher than to short term highs, that is telling you that the |
| 208 | 00:38:06,720 --> 00:38:23,460 | market is very weak. And the algorithm is tipping its hand to those people that are looking at it like this. Who would be looking at like this Smart Money |
| 209 | 00:38:23,520 --> 00:38:33,660 | traders, someone that's not looking at a chart with harmonic ideas. Nothing Elliott Wave didn't even look at Support Resistance. That's not a factor. That's |
| 210 | 00:38:33,660 --> 00:38:42,930 | not a factor at all. When bank traders sit down, they're not looking at Support Resistance, they care less about a trendline. They don't care about moving |
| 211 | 00:38:42,930 --> 00:38:48,720 | averages crossing over. None of that stuff. They're looking at |
| 212 | 00:38:50,160 --> 00:39:05,160 | imbalance rebalance and liquidity. That is it. That's it. That's all they're doing. Now framing that within the context of forex, they will be utilizing the |
| 213 | 00:39:05,520 --> 00:39:14,370 | fundamental idea of interest rate differentials, which I'll talk a little bit about not in this lesson. But I'd said we go into Forex, but right now, we're |
| 214 | 00:39:14,370 --> 00:39:27,240 | teaching price through this medium and index futures. But this stuff works in forex, period. Okay. There's no reason that question whether if it's just only |
| 215 | 00:39:27,240 --> 00:39:40,530 | going to work in this, it works in all markets. This is your aggressive entry. You don't need a swing low been broken. Because you have the idea based on |
| 216 | 00:39:40,530 --> 00:39:49,110 | market structure suggesting that this is extremely weak. If it's exceedingly weak, that means the next short term high. I don't know it's gonna be short term |
| 217 | 00:39:49,110 --> 00:40:00,660 | planning. I don't know because I'm studying the close candles because that's going to be an order block later on. Now everybody else knows had a look at |
| 218 | 00:40:00,660 --> 00:40:10,260 | these candles after it goes below it and comes back up and bumps the bottom of that right there. So the bottom of that rectangle. That's the classic ICT |
| 219 | 00:40:10,530 --> 00:40:22,380 | bearish order block. The advanced interpretation of an order block would be using market structure like this, which is unconventional. But you start seeing |
| 220 | 00:40:22,380 --> 00:40:32,640 | the imbalances inside the order block when you're already expecting it to sell off. See this intermediate term high already know that this rebalance here |
| 221 | 00:40:33,150 --> 00:40:42,270 | classifies this in my mind is an intermediate term high. That means it should not trade above that high. Just like this short term high and this short term |
| 222 | 00:40:42,270 --> 00:40:53,430 | high did not trade above this and return high. Why is this enemy term high when it didn't even rebalance anything? Didn't think I'll get to that question digit, |
| 223 | 00:40:54,150 --> 00:41:07,620 | he's reading my mind. Here's a long term high. Here's a swing high over here and swing over here. See that long term high, right? It'll be term high, short term |
| 224 | 00:41:07,620 --> 00:41:14,340 | high, short term high. Or if you want to use this I'm using this one not classifying this one because this is energetic, it moves lower. You could have |
| 225 | 00:41:14,340 --> 00:41:24,330 | easily had a short term high marker there. But I'm using this one because it has that run lower to rebalance. The image from high has a lower short term high to |
| 226 | 00:41:24,330 --> 00:41:35,880 | the left of it and a lower short term high to the right of it. So intermediate term highs, there's two classifications is a short term high that has a lower |
| 227 | 00:41:35,880 --> 00:41:46,680 | short term Hinds Aletheia and a lower short term high to the right of it. Or, and this is the main one here. It trades back up to rebalance an imbalance that |
| 228 | 00:41:46,710 --> 00:41:59,250 | immediately becomes an area turn hot. Now, the usefulness of that is, if we're bearish and it rebounds is like this. The next short term high should be lower |
| 229 | 00:41:59,640 --> 00:42:10,380 | than that in return high. If it trades higher than that, then your trade ideas probably flawed. Don't force that trade. Again, wait for market structure to get |
| 230 | 00:42:10,380 --> 00:42:21,120 | back in sync with what you're expecting something bearish. That's how you keep from blowing your account or forcing your will in the marketplace. Now let's go |
| 231 | 00:42:21,120 --> 00:42:30,060 | back into the boardwalk. Inside these candles as is going up, I'm looking at lower timeframe charts and this is a 15 minute timeframe. We see it break down. |
| 232 | 00:42:30,360 --> 00:42:43,560 | It doesn't take any short term low out but it's inside these up close candles which is an hourly order block of two candles. Each. The imbalance trades up |
| 233 | 00:42:43,560 --> 00:42:55,620 | into that's your Aggressive Sell. Your stock could be worried about the High Classic low risk, high confirmation short entry is the classic return back to an |
| 234 | 00:42:55,620 --> 00:43:06,900 | order block after trade down below it. Usually little gap here, trade into it. There's your short where's your stop? Above this candle is high. |
| 235 | 00:43:10,320 --> 00:43:29,220 | There you go. Now you can go down into the charts deeper with your 54321. Narrowing down to a smallest timeframe. You can see that the last two candles |
| 236 | 00:43:29,220 --> 00:43:44,610 | here. Wait for the turn inside the order block. The order block is the shaded pink box that these last two candles here with the gap. That low is exactly to |
| 237 | 00:43:44,610 --> 00:43:56,100 | the quarter point. Is that candles high right there. Don't take my word for it go into your charts. And you'll see that is exactly the perfect delivery to that |
| 238 | 00:43:56,100 --> 00:44:07,200 | candles low. What so why am I pointing that candle? Because the order block is one consecutive series of up close candles. It's not the last candle before the |
| 239 | 00:44:07,200 --> 00:44:20,640 | down move. You can tell where these folks learned what lessons are taught from and where the parroted from. But border block theory is much more than just |
| 240 | 00:44:20,640 --> 00:44:32,700 | simply the last closed candle for down move or the last down closed candle before the ultimate. That's not it. This is it. You have the close candles |
| 241 | 00:44:32,700 --> 00:44:40,890 | together here with the unbalance inside of a larger quarter block within a bearish market structure because we have an intermediate term high here in this |
| 242 | 00:44:40,890 --> 00:44:51,000 | run up is going to fail to go back above this high. Now I know some of you're like this is too much that there's no How am I going to go on to the chart and |
| 243 | 00:44:51,000 --> 00:44:59,760 | be able to do this. You're not going to right away. But you need to go back to your data and your charts and start breaking them down and classifying them like |
| 244 | 00:44:59,760 --> 00:45:10,200 | this You had the benefit of hindsight. That's how I began to trust it. Because I would go through old data and start breaking them down and looking for these |
| 245 | 00:45:10,200 --> 00:45:20,670 | things right here. That's how I bridged what I learned about how the algorithm prices and books price. And then I made a language within price charts, that |
| 246 | 00:45:20,670 --> 00:45:33,450 | communicates very closely what it's doing. This is the language that created for all of you to understand what it is I'm trying to interpret to you that have |
| 247 | 00:45:33,450 --> 00:45:48,270 | never seen this before. The imbalance here, it goes over a little bit, that's okay. But inside this range in here, more specifically, the order block, the |
| 248 | 00:45:48,270 --> 00:45:57,630 | hourly right here, that's where your fill would be or aiming with your limit order. And the heat on the trade would be on this candles movement there. Which |
| 249 | 00:45:57,630 --> 00:46:12,000 | is talk will be love here. But you're aiming for a very large downside objective. So the risk from entering here at the bottom of the hourly bearish |
| 250 | 00:46:12,000 --> 00:46:22,200 | order block, which is again represented on the bottom of that rectangle here. You're entering there, the heat or the drawdown in the trade is limited to just |
| 251 | 00:46:22,200 --> 00:46:36,900 | that candle. But your stop has to be here, and you're expanding lower for a target that's many times over what your risk is. Dropping down to a four minute |
| 252 | 00:46:36,900 --> 00:46:45,930 | chart. Here's that same waterblock from the five minute perspective, it's a little skewed. Now because we're looking at four minutes, each Kim's four |
| 253 | 00:46:45,930 --> 00:46:53,640 | minutes in duration. market trades up into that hits it perfectly, not this linked to anything on the four minute chart, but it's linked against that five |
| 254 | 00:46:53,640 --> 00:47:09,900 | minute chart. It's right there beautifully, trades lower, comes right back up trades into the top end that fear of a gap on the higher timeframe before we |
| 255 | 00:47:09,900 --> 00:47:21,030 | started dropping down, we have a little bit of movement above it. And that's okay. Because this market is very volatile right now, you can't demand the |
| 256 | 00:47:21,030 --> 00:47:28,530 | markets to always deliver with this level of precision. Sometimes you get this little coloring outside the lines and that's okay. That's a matter of experience |
| 257 | 00:47:29,040 --> 00:47:41,760 | and time studying it and doing it you anticipate a certain measure of imperfection and still submitting yourself to the idea that just because it went |
| 258 | 00:47:41,760 --> 00:47:51,000 | above that level doesn't mean he broke it, and he's gonna keep going higher, it's likely to do that. And if it does, don't freak out. Then the market trades |
| 259 | 00:47:51,000 --> 00:48:01,890 | lower and reached those targets. Now, what I want you to think about is when you see these patterns for entry, that's an I taught you how to look at market |
| 260 | 00:48:01,890 --> 00:48:03,420 | structure from an advanced perspective. |
| 261 | 00:48:04,830 --> 00:48:15,870 | I already know some of you are going to be very confused by this lesson. And I understand your confusion. But that confusion is reduced by you going in and |
| 262 | 00:48:15,870 --> 00:48:32,730 | looking at price data and start studying and looking at it. The idea is this when you see an imbalance get rebalanced, the high formed as it rebalances that |
| 263 | 00:48:32,730 --> 00:48:42,810 | high should not be violated by price going higher than that if you're bearish if you blend that with institutional order flow, what is institutional order flow |
| 264 | 00:48:43,710 --> 00:48:58,110 | when you're bearish? All of your upclose candles should keep price from going higher than them what does that mean? They have an imbalance here market trades |
| 265 | 00:48:58,110 --> 00:49:05,580 | up into the bourse candles that are on the five minute chart we're in a four minute chart that's that red level here and we go back up to say Do you know |
| 266 | 00:49:07,080 --> 00:49:14,940 | that's this one here? This is a down close candle right here these are the last two close candles before the displacement here and imbalance market trades back |
| 267 | 00:49:14,940 --> 00:49:24,360 | up into that right there there's your bearish order block yes aggressive but if you know you're looking for that's very very fun to do that on the four minute |
| 268 | 00:49:24,360 --> 00:49:35,940 | chart there's that same return back to that five minute bearish order block. Watch what happens. market breaks lower. So we have a closed candle and up close |
| 269 | 00:49:35,940 --> 00:49:45,030 | candles. The market trades higher Yes, but does it overtake this up close candle? No just trades back up into it a little bit but doesn't go above it. |
| 270 | 00:49:46,230 --> 00:49:55,050 | Wow. That's important. Because if it doesn't overtake these up close candles here or here, it doesn't even need to get to these because it hasn't even |
| 271 | 00:49:55,080 --> 00:50:09,240 | overcome this one. So it acts as real resistance. That's institutional order flow. Your market when it breaks, again from the consolidation in here, all of |
| 272 | 00:50:09,240 --> 00:50:19,440 | these up close candles never get reached into again here at all. But notice we've got over here, we have up close candles, the market leaves it, then it |
| 273 | 00:50:19,440 --> 00:50:32,190 | comes right back up. Does it overtake these upclose candles? No. So it's going to remain heavy. So in short, I've taught you tonight to look at the markets |
| 274 | 00:50:32,220 --> 00:50:46,170 | from a market structure perspective, by breaking down the price swings, labeling them, specifically, an imbalance that's rebalanced. That intermediate term high |
| 275 | 00:50:46,170 --> 00:50:59,850 | or low, should not be violated. That's a key high or a key low. That sets the stage for a market move that should unfold and deliver to a higher timeframe |
| 276 | 00:50:59,850 --> 00:51:08,430 | objective. In this case, as we outline the beginning, I showed you last week and the week before that, that we were looking for weakness and NASDAQ to take out |
| 277 | 00:51:08,430 --> 00:51:20,700 | its daily low. If you combine that logic with market structure, and the imbalance rebounds becomes intermediate term highs and lows, those key highs and |
| 278 | 00:51:20,700 --> 00:51:29,310 | lows with them not being violated. If they are violated that means your ideas wrong. And you cancel the idea and you don't try to go in and force it again and |
| 279 | 00:51:29,310 --> 00:51:40,470 | overtrading and blow your account. While the market is moving in your favor, you're going to continue to trust that move and hold on to your trade. Because |
| 280 | 00:51:40,470 --> 00:51:53,850 | if you're bearish up close candles should keep price below it. For them, if it's multiple close candles, their speed bumps, they may come back up and touch them |
| 281 | 00:51:54,060 --> 00:52:05,640 | and act as a what bearish order block, but you do not want to see them trading above if you're bearish. And vice versa. If you're bullish when prices moving |
| 282 | 00:52:05,640 --> 00:52:14,550 | higher, generally the candles will be predominantly green. In my case, because I'm looking green candles when it's going higher. Whatever your candle color is |
| 283 | 00:52:14,550 --> 00:52:26,190 | on your platform. Predominantly, there's going to be more up close candles when it's bullish. But down close candles should support price. If it trades back |
| 284 | 00:52:26,190 --> 00:52:37,680 | down to them, it's going to act as a support structure for an order block. So I've given you two main components to market structure and institutional order |
| 285 | 00:52:37,680 --> 00:52:48,150 | flow. How to know when the move is still good, and not be afraid? And how do you know when the move is likely to be dynamic? And how do you know when the idea is |
| 286 | 00:52:48,150 --> 00:52:58,350 | probably flawed in your interpretation or your analysis is wrong. If that intermediate term high or low is broken, that's your trade idea becomes |
| 287 | 00:52:58,740 --> 00:52:59,520 | possible. |
| 288 | 00:53:01,110 --> 00:53:09,990 | If that in return high is broken, then you're bearish, then you got to move to the sidelines and don't go in again. Wait for more setups in the future. They |
| 289 | 00:53:09,990 --> 00:53:19,380 | may be in the same trading session or maybe in the same trading day. Or it may require you to trade in the following week. You can't force it. I taught you |
| 290 | 00:53:19,650 --> 00:53:28,530 | institutional order flow, which is again, I've already mentioned this in previous lessons where we're bullish and we're expecting a price swing higher. |
| 291 | 00:53:29,400 --> 00:53:37,620 | Generally there is not a lot of down close candles in that price swing higher. But those down close candles should support price should it trade back down into |
| 292 | 00:53:37,620 --> 00:53:50,760 | them and not see them over lapped and always going down below it. If it does, it's only permissible if there's a short term low in close proximity to it. And |
| 293 | 00:53:50,760 --> 00:53:59,550 | it's then looked like this go down and take out some sell stops that it's bullish, and then re accumulate and go higher. If there is no swing low, there |
| 294 | 00:53:59,550 --> 00:54:09,540 | would be no swing low with sellside below it. So there's nothing to concern yourself with. Just look for down close candles support price higher. Similar |
| 295 | 00:54:09,570 --> 00:54:23,790 | price swings that are bullish down close candles are your support. In price swings that are bearish. Up close candles are your resistance. Now, if you blend |
| 296 | 00:54:23,790 --> 00:54:39,780 | these ideas together, you get a perspective on price that cannot be gleaned from other teachers, educators, traders, authors, gurus or whatever. But these are my |
| 297 | 00:54:39,780 --> 00:54:52,710 | responses to folks that asked me how do I know what swing high and what swing low to use? As you can see, it's not a question and I can go in and say in one |
| 298 | 00:54:52,800 --> 00:55:05,160 | simple statement, this is what I'm doing. It takes deeper thought it takes Study, and has the require supportive lessons that you're still going to be |
| 299 | 00:55:05,160 --> 00:55:11,730 | needing for the majority of you that are sitting here and listening to me, you're saying, okay, I can see what you're saying, I can see it, but there's no |
| 300 | 00:55:11,730 --> 00:55:21,060 | way I would have came to that conclusion on my own, nobody would expect you to, you're too new. You haven't been doing enough. In frankly, I've never taught |
| 301 | 00:55:21,060 --> 00:55:35,010 | this before. This is what I've kept close to my best. But I want to give, and I want to share. But you're not going to understand this in one lesson. But |
| 302 | 00:55:35,010 --> 00:55:44,760 | because I am trading, and I'm sharing, and I'm teaching, I will show you more examples. That way, you can see the logic behind it. But I want you to go back |
| 303 | 00:55:44,760 --> 00:55:54,780 | to your charts and look at every time the market rebalances classify that as an in return high, or in return low, if it's you, with a rebalance that's been |
| 304 | 00:55:54,840 --> 00:56:07,950 | moving hiring went down to rebalance that. And then watch how prices stay away from violating it. And if you can frame a context around a price swing that's |
| 305 | 00:56:08,010 --> 00:56:22,110 | linked to a higher Time Frame chart like the daily, then you have a wonderful model that has higher timeframe, order flow behind it, that is paramount for |
| 306 | 00:56:22,110 --> 00:56:33,300 | your trade to work. If you can't see it working or following suit, to what the daily charts likely to do. Or in layman's terms, if you're trading against what |
| 307 | 00:56:33,300 --> 00:56:44,850 | that daily timeframe or daily chart is likely to be doing. You are absolutely asking for failure. You're asking for it, you're begging for it. That's not to |
| 308 | 00:56:44,850 --> 00:56:56,910 | say that you can't go long when the daily charts going lower. But why would you want to? Why would you want to swim against the tide? Why would you want to be |
| 309 | 00:56:57,300 --> 00:57:12,150 | the salmon, the salmon that fights its way up against the current just to get to the top of the river, spawns and then dice you got there but failed me and you |
| 310 | 00:57:12,150 --> 00:57:23,100 | want to be working with the tide, you want to be moving with the ebb and flow of these markets on a higher timeframe. Because that daily chart, if you understand |
| 311 | 00:57:23,100 --> 00:57:25,500 | that daily chart, let's go back up to it. |
| 312 | 00:57:31,110 --> 00:57:44,820 | If you're doing all of your analysis, and linking your trade ideas, based on the logic behind this timeframe here, you're going to avoid a lot of losing trades. |
| 313 | 00:57:44,940 --> 00:57:53,610 | Now you're gonna lose, you're gonna have losing trades, I have losing trades. But you're going to avoid the silly mistakes that the majority of retail traders |
| 314 | 00:57:53,640 --> 00:58:05,640 | make. You're not going to see why on a 15 minute time frame or five minute chart, why it's not turning around and reversing intraday, when it feels like it |
| 315 | 00:58:05,640 --> 00:58:14,820 | might be doing so because you'll have these small little new, quick, dynamic little pops in the direction it's countered with the daily chart suggesting |
| 316 | 00:58:15,840 --> 00:58:23,970 | those are just little traps, or little moves that get people caught up in Oh, it's gonna reverse and we're gonna chase that. And then it just creates another |
| 317 | 00:58:24,180 --> 00:58:32,490 | selling opportunity when the daily chart is likely to continue going lower. So you have to submit yourself to what this daily chart is doing. What's it |
| 318 | 00:58:32,490 --> 00:58:47,400 | reaching for? And when it reaches it, stop. Get a lay of the land again, check your bearings, which is what I'm going to close this video with now. We were up |
| 319 | 00:58:47,400 --> 00:58:57,900 | here. We rebalanced. I said all of this here is just normal. For us to anticipate a run down below here. This is just rebalancing for another leg lower |
| 320 | 00:58:57,900 --> 00:59:10,620 | to go down here. So we have had that in price it's delivered. But now we're back above that low. So what does that mean for us? Well, on the daily chart, it's |
| 321 | 00:59:10,620 --> 00:59:24,510 | been bearish. But we're back above this, although that is in my mind. Do nothing. We're neutral right now. Why? Why would you be neutral? Can you still |
| 322 | 00:59:24,510 --> 00:59:37,860 | be bearish? Yes. Can you be bullish? If you want to go against the trend of the daily timeframe? Well, it just brings with it a greater measure of risk. Now |
| 323 | 00:59:37,890 --> 00:59:47,040 | there's going to be times where you can go back in the charts and say but yeah, look at this time. Anybody can do that. I'm looking at the hard right edge right |
| 324 | 00:59:47,040 --> 00:59:59,130 | now. In my paid mentorship group is hearing this video just like you are. I am neutral right now. I am not taking any trades. There's a lot of things going on |
| 325 | 00:59:59,340 --> 01:00:10,710 | globally. There's a lot of confusion right now. Money is running scared in the marketplace. And I don't see where we're going next with a great deal of |
| 326 | 01:00:10,710 --> 01:00:24,990 | certainty. So what did I just say to you publicly? I don't know. What do you see? I see this and he don't know something. He doesn't know what the markets |
| 327 | 01:00:24,990 --> 01:00:35,160 | gonna do. Right. Right now? I don't know. So, if I don't know, and I can't classify based on things I'm looking for in price, yes, it could possibly go a |
| 328 | 01:00:35,160 --> 01:00:42,150 | bit higher. It could be the low, there could be some kind of reversal, they could you stop doing what you're doing over there in Europe and in Ukraine, and |
| 329 | 01:00:42,150 --> 01:00:55,950 | everything becomes happy and nothing happens. They had again for a couple months, and the markets go higher. I don't see that. Right now. I don't know if |
| 330 | 01:00:55,950 --> 01:01:10,350 | it's going to continue going lower. where it's at right now. Neutral, because I can't justify it. One sidedness case is how to teach money on pay group. The |
| 331 | 01:01:10,350 --> 01:01:22,290 | things I teach them, if you can't go into your charts, and line up an idea that's bullish, and have no way to frame it on a bearish stance. In other words, |
| 332 | 01:01:23,580 --> 01:01:34,470 | if you can very easily communicate in your analysis that it's likely to go higher, but it's a real hard stretch to sell it for a bearish idea. That's high |
| 333 | 01:01:34,470 --> 01:01:44,010 | probability. If you can frame it bearish, but have a hard time defining it in a bullish perspective. That's high probability. |
| 334 | 01:01:45,990 --> 01:01:55,650 | Now, how many trades have you taken in your time as a trader, where it could go either way, but what the hell I got time on the front of the charts, let me just |
| 335 | 01:01:55,650 --> 01:02:04,800 | get here and see what happens and you enter the market, then you lose. What happens after that, you have a lot of regret. And you know, what you're |
| 336 | 01:02:04,800 --> 01:02:14,280 | thinking, I don't even know why I did get I was done, what I get into the marketplace. Everyone's done that. Everyone has done that. And I have blown |
| 337 | 01:02:14,280 --> 01:02:27,060 | accounts, doing that. 1990s, I was reckless, did whatever I wanted to do. And none of it was really hinged on sound logic, it was me discovering risk, because |
| 338 | 01:02:27,060 --> 01:02:39,900 | I didn't respect it when I first went into it. But I found that real hard that it hurts, and you don't want to go through that. So this brings this lesson to |
| 339 | 01:02:40,470 --> 01:02:53,790 | conclusion tonight. And I am absolutely certain that you have a litany of questions and concerns and confusions. All of those things get answered over |
| 340 | 01:02:53,790 --> 01:03:05,670 | time, spending time with me looking at examples, and you'll see it over time. It cannot be understood in one lesson. It absolutely cannot happen. And I know some |
| 341 | 01:03:05,670 --> 01:03:14,490 | of you young guys are gonna want to post in the comment section, I understand exactly what you said, I've seen this 15 times before. Don't I don't look at |
| 342 | 01:03:14,490 --> 01:03:26,190 | those messages and think to myself, wow. And I'm not gonna let that that should be posted to the video comment section. I'm not looking for messages that fluff |
| 343 | 01:03:26,190 --> 01:03:36,510 | me up. I'm just looking for ones that I like. Okay. And if it's something that I think that would be beneficial to the community, I'll use it. But if it's |
| 344 | 01:03:36,510 --> 01:03:44,820 | something I just thought it was funny or useful. That's the one I like that about the comments. It doesn't mean that all the comments that were not |
| 345 | 01:03:44,820 --> 01:03:57,390 | selected, were useless or less important, because some of them are questions. I'm using your questions in the way I'm teaching. So that way, I'm covering a |
| 346 | 01:03:57,390 --> 01:04:04,260 | lot of the bases that you guys are saying, I'm stuck with understanding this, but just know that there's a lot of the questions that you're asking that will |
| 347 | 01:04:04,260 --> 01:04:11,850 | be answered in a normal progression through the lessons I have planned for you. It may not feel like it, it may feel like you're being ignored or that I don't |
| 348 | 01:04:11,850 --> 01:04:20,040 | care about your question, or I'm somehow avoiding it because I don't have an answer. I have answers. Okay, I have answers to the questions. You have not had |
| 349 | 01:04:20,070 --> 01:04:28,380 | a rise in your thoughts yet. But you just got to relax and go through the natural progression of it. This is very technical stuff, folks. Very, very |
| 350 | 01:04:28,380 --> 01:04:38,250 | technical. You don't need to be this technical. But I was asked to teach market structure. And there's a lot of folks out there especially on YouTube that |
| 351 | 01:04:38,250 --> 01:04:45,900 | pretend to know about market structure, but they have no real idea what you're doing. The only thing they're explaining is what's already happened in the price |
| 352 | 01:04:45,900 --> 01:04:54,930 | charts. I'm showing you something in greater detail what I outlined to every one of you in this YouTube channel. Everyone in this YouTube channel watched me |
| 353 | 01:04:54,960 --> 01:05:10,950 | outline this market right here, and it moved 14 1500 points based on that logic, that's a lot. That's a very significant price move, and it behaved exactly how |
| 354 | 01:05:10,950 --> 01:05:24,000 | I'm teaching it to you. That should be reassuring, number one, but also it should be intriguing. Because if I'm able to sit down with you, and this was not |
| 355 | 01:05:24,000 --> 01:05:32,940 | a cheat, how many times have I put out suggestions? Either in the comment section of my community tab? For video, how many times have I said something, |
| 356 | 01:05:33,600 --> 01:05:44,220 | and it didn't come to pass? They're not cherry picked. I'm showing you things that are based on the logic that I'm teaching you. Okay? So it removes the |
| 357 | 01:05:44,220 --> 01:05:54,180 | necessity for blind faith. Okay, don't believe me, because I'm ICT believe what I'm teaching you. And that you're seeing in the charts yourself when you're back |
| 358 | 01:05:54,180 --> 01:06:04,230 | testing and watching it live. That's where the proof is discovered. Because I can do this every single day. And there's still going to be people there's going |
| 359 | 01:06:04,230 --> 01:06:11,670 | to doubt. And the folks that are convinced already, they don't need any more assurance. They just want to learn. And that's what I'm doing. I'm teaching you, |
| 360 | 01:06:12,030 --> 01:06:23,670 | I'm teaching you exactly what's going on, on that hard right edge of that chart. And right now, at this moment, I'm teaching you a greater lesson, when not to do |
| 361 | 01:06:23,670 --> 01:06:24,240 | something. |
| 362 | 01:06:26,280 --> 01:06:39,150 | You may have an account open, you may have time to be in front of your charts, you may have an idea, some kind of inkling that you think the markets going to |
| 363 | 01:06:39,150 --> 01:06:51,120 | do this or that. I'm telling you personally, I'm not touching this at all. I'm not trading Forex. I'm not trading futures. I'm not trading crypto, I've never |
| 364 | 01:06:51,120 --> 01:07:03,510 | traded crypto, and I'm not touching stocks. I'm not touching bonds. I'm not trading anything right now. I'm gonna let the rest of February transpire without |
| 365 | 01:07:03,510 --> 01:07:13,980 | me engaging. It's done exactly what I outlined for all of you. It was a nice price move. It was logical. It was precise, it delivered exactly as outlined |
| 366 | 01:07:14,700 --> 01:07:29,310 | beforehand. And tonight, I taught you the internals behind that in a very structured, detailed way. Your infancy as a student under me, is going to be an |
| 367 | 01:07:29,310 --> 01:07:37,980 | impediment to you understanding everything, and even my paid mentorship group are probably scratching their heads tonight, too, because there's gaps in their |
| 368 | 01:07:37,980 --> 01:07:47,250 | understanding because I just literally introduced this for the first time they have they don't have this in any of the lessons they had. None of them no one |
| 369 | 01:07:47,250 --> 01:08:00,000 | has seen me teach this is the first time I'm unveiling what it is when I look at market structure. What is it I'm doing? How am I framing things? I'm using a top |
| 370 | 01:08:00,000 --> 01:08:12,120 | down approach from the daily on the lower timeframes. But the timeframe I'm framing the setup one, which was the hourly chart, using higher timeframe logic |
| 371 | 01:08:13,170 --> 01:08:22,860 | and the order flow, no words. I'm bearish because that daily chart suggests that it's going to go down below here. When it was up here. This went down to quick |
| 372 | 01:08:23,910 --> 01:08:36,450 | in what is the market even create a fair bet you got? Why does the market go up here? Because this market dropped, one sided for here. It just went down. There |
| 373 | 01:08:36,450 --> 01:08:47,670 | wasn't a lot of given take back and forth. It's one candle that went down like that. Because it's one candle, it's one day one interval is going to have the |
| 374 | 01:08:47,670 --> 01:09:00,000 | likelihood not it must always not that it's going to do it immediately. But the expectation is likely to go back up into this area here with an up candle |
| 375 | 01:09:00,870 --> 01:09:11,760 | balancing out the movement lower is going to go back up to offer buyers an opportunity to buy at those prices. It matters not if those buyers are correct |
| 376 | 01:09:11,790 --> 01:09:25,560 | in their assumptions about this marketplace. The algorithm is allowing efficiency for price delivery. In layman's terms, it means a went down too |
| 377 | 01:09:25,560 --> 01:09:36,990 | quick. It wasn't offering enough time for anyone that wants to buy it. So it goes back up. Once it does that it rebalances right there spends a little bit of |
| 378 | 01:09:36,990 --> 01:09:50,040 | time and then displacement again, and then right to where we were outlining. The question I want to leave you with is this. Why does it respect the levels I'm |
| 379 | 01:09:50,040 --> 01:10:04,470 | teaching here and the logic from imbalance to liquidity? If everything is based on trend lines moving versus harmonic patterns. Fibonacci this Elliott Wave that |
| 380 | 01:10:06,990 --> 01:10:18,750 | if those things were real, and they had factors that really made price go higher or lower. Answer this for me this is the riddle you need to figure out. Okay? |
| 381 | 01:10:20,790 --> 01:10:32,040 | How does the market know? Which discipline? It's going to follow? Any given day? Is it going to follow harmonic animal patterns? Or is it going to follow Elliott |
| 382 | 01:10:32,040 --> 01:10:45,030 | Wave? Or is it going to use supply and demand? Or is it going to use volume profile? It's going to use Wycoff. He's going to use the patterns that's found |
| 383 | 01:10:45,030 --> 01:11:04,470 | on range bars. Is it going to use what's in Ichimoku? You get an appointment. All those disciplines do not agree. All of them. They're at odds with one |
| 384 | 01:11:04,470 --> 01:11:18,210 | another. One disciplines gonna say wait for this one disciplines gonna say wait for that. So how is it the market determines which discipline it's going to use |
| 385 | 01:11:18,210 --> 01:11:27,540 | for that given time period or that day. That's nonsense, that you being religious. |
| 386 | 01:11:29,460 --> 01:11:44,940 | Any of you to subscribe to those ideas, and I did. You are under a faith based premise that what you're learning should work. When it's not based on any of |
| 387 | 01:11:44,940 --> 01:12:03,030 | those things. The market's only book and print these candles based on two principles and liquidity, going above old highs for buy stops going below lows |
| 388 | 01:12:03,060 --> 01:12:15,780 | for sell stops or rebalancing or creating imbalance. So it's imbalance rebalance, run for liquidity. That's it. It does not do anything else. The |
| 389 | 01:12:15,780 --> 01:12:24,000 | algorithm is not looking at harmonic patterns. It's not thinking, Well, you know, I haven't used the bat pattern in a while. So it's driving me batty. It's |
| 390 | 01:12:24,000 --> 01:12:36,300 | not thinking, I want to scare the living hell out of them and create a shark pattern. It's silly, it's silly. And I know some of you trade like this, okay, |
| 391 | 01:12:36,300 --> 01:12:47,460 | and I'm not trying to make fun of you. I'm just asking you to be highly critical about a perception of what it is that we as traders do, and how much of a |
| 392 | 01:12:47,460 --> 01:12:58,830 | fallacy it is when you strip all that stuff away and it sounds like I'm biased because this is what I'm teaching you but lose what I'm doing. I gave up |
| 393 | 01:12:58,830 --> 01:13:08,700 | millions of dollars a year to come out here and teach for free I could still be making millions there's many of you are still asking conscious join on your paid |
| 394 | 01:13:08,700 --> 01:13:24,360 | no, you can't join. Be happy I'm teaching I'm teaching mentorship right here. Come on. What's in it for me? I'm already rich. already know how to trade. A lot |
| 395 | 01:13:24,360 --> 01:13:40,530 | of people like what I do. I don't need to be doing this. I just enjoy it. But why is the market doing what I teach so precisely. So consistently? Maybe it's |
| 396 | 01:13:40,530 --> 01:13:57,330 | because this is the market. Maybe it's because this is the algorithm. I'll leave that with you to the side. Enjoy your weekend. Be safe. I'll touch base with you |
| 397 | 01:13:57,330 --> 01:13:57,840 | on Tuesday. |