ICT YT - 2022-02-02 - ICT Mentorship 2022 Episode 5.srt
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2022-02-02 09:40
| 1 | 00:00:11,580 --> 00:00:21,810 | ICT: Alright folks, welcome back. This is the 2022 ICT mentorship, on YouTube. And this lesson is going to be intraday order flow and understanding the daily |
| 2 | 00:00:21,810 --> 00:00:35,880 | range. Alright folks, we're looking at trading view.com. And you can use this platform for free. There are some benefits to having a membership there. It's |
| 3 | 00:00:35,880 --> 00:00:47,340 | not terribly expensive. But nonetheless, it provides you a means of looking at charts that I show in my mentorship here, and in my private mentorship group. So |
| 4 | 00:00:47,340 --> 00:00:57,000 | it's the same charts that I'm producing for that community that I'm producing for you as well. Everything in this lecture is going to be predominantly around |
| 5 | 00:00:57,120 --> 00:01:09,900 | teaching you the elements of the E Mini setting up your daily range, and your intraday layouts. And I'll talk a little bit about daily profiles. So that will |
| 6 | 00:01:09,900 --> 00:01:19,950 | help you and compare and contrast showing you what it is that you're trying to learn from me here versus what is available out there in the internet. Okay, so |
| 7 | 00:01:19,950 --> 00:01:32,910 | that way you can decide whether or not this is going to be a worthwhile pursuit for you. These things done teaching today are directly linked to index futures, |
| 8 | 00:01:33,180 --> 00:01:46,560 | okay, like s&p, NASDAQ in the Dow, okay, you can use the Russell 2000. Those are the markets that I'm targeting with the lessons, the ideas of trading the Asian |
| 9 | 00:01:46,560 --> 00:01:54,090 | range and things like that. They are not applicable to these markets. I don't teach that to my students, I want you to just focus on the things I'm going to |
| 10 | 00:01:54,090 --> 00:02:02,880 | show you in this mentorship. Alright, first things first, let me get the boring stuff out of the way. Whenever you're looking at futures, especially the index |
| 11 | 00:02:02,880 --> 00:02:17,370 | futures, these contracts trade with expiration dates, and the months that they trade are going to be shown here. S is the symbol for E Mini s&p h in this |
| 12 | 00:02:17,430 --> 00:02:32,550 | example stands for March. So the delivery month codes for the commodity markets H is always representing the month of March. M is June, u is September z is |
| 13 | 00:02:32,550 --> 00:02:47,130 | December these are the only four months that the index futures trade one E Mini s&p E Mini NASDAQ Emini Dow, okay. The year obviously is what it is now, if |
| 14 | 00:02:47,130 --> 00:02:57,390 | you're going to be using like for instance, when I take live trades and the TD Ameritrade they don't take their year symbol like this, it's to to, but in |
| 15 | 00:02:57,390 --> 00:03:08,730 | trading view, if you're pulling up a symbol like I have here, E sh 2022. That represent the E Mini s&p 500 contract for delivery month, March, year 2022. |
| 16 | 00:03:09,420 --> 00:03:22,650 | Okay, since they expire, it's important for you to know that the third Friday of the month of delivery which is obviously in this example here March the third |
| 17 | 00:03:22,650 --> 00:03:31,620 | Friday of that month is expiration, you do not want to be trading after expiration. And the question is going to be is when do I start trading the next |
| 18 | 00:03:31,620 --> 00:03:41,790 | month out? Okay, this is always gonna be the front month or the current month or nearby contract the month after the front month, or current contract month is |
| 19 | 00:03:41,790 --> 00:03:52,410 | always gonna be referred to by me as the next month out. If you ever have a doubt you can go to bar chart COMM And you can go to the Select commodity tab |
| 20 | 00:03:52,410 --> 00:04:05,670 | here. This is all free. You can scrub down into this list here, go to s&p 500 E Mini click on that. It'll open up what I just showed you there. And the first |
| 21 | 00:04:05,670 --> 00:04:15,510 | one that's the cash you don't want to look at that the next contract available is March. See that even gives you did a little cheat. Right now, this is |
| 22 | 00:04:15,510 --> 00:04:28,680 | considered the front month or nearby contract. The open interest is what I'm watching. Okay, so one week before expiration, which is the third Friday of the |
| 23 | 00:04:28,680 --> 00:04:38,790 | delivery contract month. So third Friday of March 3 Frankly of June 3 Friday of September 3 Friday of December. Rollover to new year starts to sequence all over |
| 24 | 00:04:38,790 --> 00:04:49,170 | again March June, September, December real easy pattern real easy means of keeping track of where you're supposed to be at. But usually around the first or |
| 25 | 00:04:49,170 --> 00:04:58,140 | second day of the week prior to expiration. I start monitoring open interest and I want to be in the month that has the larger open interest number. Notice that |
| 26 | 00:04:58,380 --> 00:05:02,880 | the June contract only has 50 7310 contracts of open interest |
| 27 | 00:05:04,530 --> 00:05:16,320 | right now, front month, or nearby contract of March 2022, has opened interest of 2.2 million. So this is the larger liquidity lease contract month. So I'm going |
| 28 | 00:05:16,320 --> 00:05:29,010 | to be trading this month. If it becomes a matter of this month here has larger open interest than this one here, then I'm going to be trading the next month |
| 29 | 00:05:29,010 --> 00:05:38,310 | out, because I want the liquidity that's available in the larger pool of liquidity offered by the most traded contract month. Okay, so hopefully that |
| 30 | 00:05:38,310 --> 00:05:50,760 | answered that question that a lot of questions regarding that. Alright, so now what we're looking for is an opportunity, and I'm going to teach bias and |
| 31 | 00:05:50,760 --> 00:06:00,150 | specific entry techniques. Next week. This week, I'm teaching you the intraday framework, and I want you to start thinking about market profiles. And you're |
| 32 | 00:06:00,150 --> 00:06:11,970 | gonna have homework assignments, obviously, for that at the end of this video, but we're going to assume that you were bullish in here. Okay. I'm going to |
| 33 | 00:06:11,970 --> 00:06:20,880 | provide proof in this video that I was bullish. And I did execute with that bias in mind, but but just kind of put that to the side. I know some of you are very |
| 34 | 00:06:20,880 --> 00:06:30,360 | anxious, and you're leaving comments, saying, Can you teach me how to get in, you know, what, what am I looking for? I understand your excitement. But take |
| 35 | 00:06:30,360 --> 00:06:39,360 | the lessons at the pace that I'm giving you because I'm giving you homework assignments and studying. So that way, it helps build and ingrain the |
| 36 | 00:06:39,360 --> 00:06:45,600 | understanding that I'm giving you, because your study time is actually going to be where the majority of your learnings will come from, I'm just giving you |
| 37 | 00:06:45,930 --> 00:07:00,540 | points of reference. So that we can go in and start looking at things and start seeing a reoccurring repeating phenomenon. But I want to take a look at the 15 |
| 38 | 00:07:00,540 --> 00:07:15,810 | minute time frame. Right. And when you're looking at this 15 minute time frame, this is the bellwether timeframe, this is where I'm looking for key highs and |
| 39 | 00:07:15,810 --> 00:07:23,400 | lows. I'm looking for imbalances, like fair value gaps and things of that nature. Yes, I will look for order blocks. But I'm going to try to stay away |
| 40 | 00:07:23,400 --> 00:07:31,770 | from order blocks in this lesson in this mentorship, really, because I have models that don't even rely on order blocks. Obviously, I'm teaching fair value |
| 41 | 00:07:31,770 --> 00:07:44,160 | gap here. And that is the main focus. Because it repeats it's easy pattern. It's there a lot. But I want you to think about how you frame your day. See when |
| 42 | 00:07:44,160 --> 00:07:50,850 | you're in trading view, or you can use in your own platform if you're not using trading view, but I'm recommending least while you're going through mentorship |
| 43 | 00:07:50,910 --> 00:08:02,640 | here on YouTube, to go through the process with trading view. Alright, and then this is what you would classically see annotated in my chart for a Forex setup, |
| 44 | 00:08:03,270 --> 00:08:14,790 | I'm taking you to 830 Gonna put a vertical line there at 830. Click this clone. I know this is very boring for some of you. Because you really want to just get |
| 45 | 00:08:14,790 --> 00:08:24,720 | in here and get the nuts and bolts but I have new people watching the same video. So I have to make this as complete as possible. And try to cover all the |
| 46 | 00:08:24,720 --> 00:08:34,680 | bases. And then hopefully I don't get as many emails because I can't keep up with them. And so if you've emailed me and I'm not responding, I apologize, but |
| 47 | 00:08:34,680 --> 00:08:51,630 | I just I can't keep up with it. All right, so we're looking at Alright, so the equal distance in time in the morning, then an hour lunch, New York lunch, and |
| 48 | 00:08:51,630 --> 00:09:05,010 | then an equal amount of time after that. Okay, so I want to zoom in here. And in your mind, I want you to think about that lunch hour. And this is always New |
| 49 | 00:09:05,010 --> 00:09:14,130 | York local time. Okay, set your trading view chart to this. If you do that, no matter where you are in the world, you'll be able to calibrate your local time |
| 50 | 00:09:14,160 --> 00:09:25,020 | with this. Okay. Everything I'm showing you is directly linked to New York local time. If you do any other timeframe, you're going to mess up, you won't have the |
| 51 | 00:09:25,020 --> 00:09:32,730 | same calibrations as all my students and what I'm looking at in price because eventually I'm going to be showing you charts on my community tab that I want |
| 52 | 00:09:32,730 --> 00:09:40,530 | you to be watching before it happens. But before I even started doing that, I'm not going to create a train wreck by having everybody looking at charts in their |
| 53 | 00:09:40,530 --> 00:09:52,800 | own local time. And not New York time and completely missed the the point in plot. So once we had this I want you to think of this hour here. |
| 54 | 00:09:59,340 --> 00:10:12,150 | Noon to one o'clock in the afternoon, New York time. That is a no trade time period. I don't care who tells you that they can do this and do that. If you're |
| 55 | 00:10:12,150 --> 00:10:21,240 | learning from me, just don't trade during that time. Okay? Not even in demo, because just trust me, don't do it. Okay? As we go through the mentorship, |
| 56 | 00:10:21,360 --> 00:10:29,790 | you'll understand more reasons why I just can't give everything in one video, obviously, I want to, and I want to do four hour long teachings. But I'm trying |
| 57 | 00:10:29,790 --> 00:10:39,120 | to make them palatable, because I know, majority of you don't have the attention span, because you're new. And you're just now discovering, so I'm trying to bear |
| 58 | 00:10:39,120 --> 00:10:49,110 | that in mind when I'm making these presentations. So you have your daily range on an intraday basis. All set up and laid out. So these are your boundaries. |
| 59 | 00:10:49,710 --> 00:10:59,310 | Your morning trade is between 830 in the morning. Why? Because there's news events that come out 830 All the way to noon, preferably around 11 o'clock, I |
| 60 | 00:10:59,670 --> 00:11:09,630 | generally don't like to take trades, after 11 o'clock in the morning. Now, it doesn't mean I haven't or that I won't, I just generally try not to I want to |
| 61 | 00:11:09,630 --> 00:11:19,770 | try to be positioned before 11 o'clock and hopefully be writing something into the New York lunch at noon. And then scoring positions or taking some off, if |
| 62 | 00:11:19,770 --> 00:11:28,830 | I'm going to hope to that lunch and anticipate something going through to the close. And we'll talk about that we get into profiles, not volume profile. Okay. |
| 63 | 00:11:29,610 --> 00:11:42,180 | The idea of the afternoon session, I wasn't going to teach that. But because I see a lot of nonsense on YouTube. I'm going to, it's going to teach it to you. |
| 64 | 00:11:42,330 --> 00:11:56,790 | Okay, so it's going to be a complete daily treatise on the entire daily range of indices. So that way, if your interest is in this asset class, you'll have a far |
| 65 | 00:11:56,790 --> 00:12:05,370 | better chance of being successful, in my opinion, using the information I'm going to give you Okay, and I'm proving it with actual executions, as you'll see |
| 66 | 00:12:05,370 --> 00:12:14,190 | later in the video. Alright, so we're looking at prior to 830, what are you looking for? Okay, I got a lot of questions in the comment section. I'm reading |
| 67 | 00:12:14,190 --> 00:12:20,790 | all the comments, folks. I love it. Because it's real short, little snippets. I know a lot of my students, they like to send me these really long winded |
| 68 | 00:12:20,790 --> 00:12:29,520 | appreciative emails, and then they give me one chart. That doesn't really explain much to me, and I can't really answer it. So the comments section that |
| 69 | 00:12:30,120 --> 00:12:37,200 | I'm opening up on every one of these videos, if you haven't noticed, I'm allowing one comment that to kind of like honor, there's individuals that are |
| 70 | 00:12:37,200 --> 00:12:47,820 | showing appreciation, and they're not gratuitously looking to praise me, I don't like that, okay. I like the appreciation for my time and energy in sacrifice, |
| 71 | 00:12:47,820 --> 00:12:55,410 | give it to you for free. But I don't want to be worshipped that kind of want all that kind of stuff. Don't call me to go Don't call me the greatest of all time. |
| 72 | 00:12:55,440 --> 00:13:07,110 | I don't like that kind of stuff. But if you have something that you want me to touch on, and improve a delivery or explanation of a specific thing I mentioned |
| 73 | 00:13:07,140 --> 00:13:17,310 | in a video, I may already have something in a future lesson planned. But if it's something that I don't have, in my outline, that's going to be in future videos, |
| 74 | 00:13:17,880 --> 00:13:27,210 | I'll utilize the feedback I get. Okay, so that way, I understand some of you don't want everything all at one time. Initially, we can do all that in one |
| 75 | 00:13:27,210 --> 00:13:37,020 | time. But I am taking the feedback I'm getting from you all. And I'm using that okay. But one of the questions I got was, what highs and loads are we looking |
| 76 | 00:13:37,020 --> 00:13:52,050 | for that, you know, a stop run would be framed on or what would be the catalyst for a stop on well prior to 830. If you look at that, okay, well just grab a |
| 77 | 00:13:52,080 --> 00:14:01,620 | horizontal Ray. And we see this high here. And I'm utilizing this with the benefit of hindsight, because this is how you're going to go back and back test |
| 78 | 00:14:01,620 --> 00:14:07,020 | everything I want you to take a look at the high here |
| 79 | 00:14:14,370 --> 00:14:29,880 | in the low right here so prior to 830 hours to the left of that on a 15 minute timeframe, what's the most significant or obvious swing high and swing low swing |
| 80 | 00:14:29,880 --> 00:14:37,920 | high is this is a candle with a lower high to the left of it and a lower high to the right of it three candle pattern. Okay, it does not matter if the candles |
| 81 | 00:14:37,920 --> 00:14:48,900 | are up or down closes you just looking for a swing high because above that's going to be by sign liquidity or by stopped and a swing low prior to 830. That's |
| 82 | 00:14:48,900 --> 00:14:58,470 | a candle that has a higher load to the left and a higher load to the right of this three candles again. It does not matter what the close of the candles are. |
| 83 | 00:14:58,500 --> 00:15:06,900 | It has absolutely no bearing on it. What I'm showing you here because the swing points are where liquidity is when we placed, okay. So once you have these |
| 84 | 00:15:06,900 --> 00:15:18,540 | levels on your chart on a 15 minute timeframe, then you can drop down into your first lower timeframe for entry. That's your five minute chart. So let's do |
| 85 | 00:15:18,540 --> 00:15:26,970 | that. Now. All these things will be transposed right to the five minute chart, you won't lose anything. In case you're wondering, a lot of new people are |
| 86 | 00:15:26,970 --> 00:15:35,850 | afraid if they do something with a timeframe, they'll lose their annotations. Alright, so now we have this old high back here, look at look at this price |
| 87 | 00:15:35,850 --> 00:15:46,620 | right there. Okay, that's going to be the high price on that particular candle right there. It's 4514 and a half. This candle trades to 4514 and a half, |
| 88 | 00:15:47,220 --> 00:15:57,600 | exactly the same high. When we have that, but look closer, we have relative equal high, but we have it in multiple short term highs, they keep going higher. |
| 89 | 00:15:57,840 --> 00:16:07,440 | If there's three highs, they go out like that. That's a classic three drives pattern. There's a book I really enjoy when I was in the 90s, Linda Raschke and |
| 90 | 00:16:07,440 --> 00:16:15,600 | Larry Connors, street smarts book, really nice little book. I don't like everything in the book. But I liked a few of the things that they talked about. |
| 91 | 00:16:16,200 --> 00:16:32,580 | And it helps me understand stop hunts, because I couldn't understand it as a developing student that why would the price want to go for those stops, it |
| 92 | 00:16:32,580 --> 00:16:40,230 | didn't make any sense, because the books that I bought never really explained all that in, in detail, they just said trust this pattern of continuation or |
| 93 | 00:16:40,230 --> 00:16:53,370 | reversal pattern. And the idea of stop hunts or raids on liquidity never really came up. So it was an alien topic to me. So when I started delving into the |
| 94 | 00:16:53,370 --> 00:17:03,270 | charts and started looking at it, it helped me and the pattern that she and Larry mentioned in there was the three little endings pattern, it sounds quirky, |
| 95 | 00:17:03,270 --> 00:17:11,250 | sounds a little silly, but it's basically the three drives pattern. Okay, that means it's a swing high, the higher swing high and a higher swing high. So it's |
| 96 | 00:17:11,250 --> 00:17:20,340 | three times the market kept pressing up, I like to see this pattern forming, when there's an old high back here, okay, on any timeframe, it's universal, |
| 97 | 00:17:20,430 --> 00:17:29,970 | okay. But if you ever start seeing these three dries up into an old high, you don't have to see that third high, take out the old high, because what it's |
| 98 | 00:17:29,970 --> 00:17:39,780 | doing is it's already pressing into running out liquidity every time it creates a swing high, and it starts to go down. Bears are trying to sell that. And |
| 99 | 00:17:39,780 --> 00:17:49,260 | they're putting buy stock trading above the previous high, and they keep getting taken. So it's already building in liquidity. And informed investors or quote |
| 100 | 00:17:49,260 --> 00:18:00,240 | unquote, smart money will be already establishing short positions. Then the market breaks. In one of the previous videos, I talked about the pattern or the |
| 101 | 00:18:00,240 --> 00:18:13,890 | setup. And I suggested not using a particular swing low that looks like it's been violated. And why didn't that trade workout would not be a losing trade. I |
| 102 | 00:18:13,890 --> 00:18:26,790 | want you to think about this idea that I teach, which is displacement. Okay? If you have a children's swimming pool, okay, if you have a children's swimming |
| 103 | 00:18:26,790 --> 00:18:35,430 | pool in your backyard, and you fill it up, and then you have an elephant just fall down inside of it, what's going to happen, the water is going to be |
| 104 | 00:18:35,430 --> 00:18:45,480 | displaced. Okay, it's gonna be an obvious displacement of that water. rather simplistic analogy, but that's what you're looking for in price. When price goes |
| 105 | 00:18:45,480 --> 00:18:53,730 | above an old high. And it trades down below it, you want to see an obvious displacement, you don't want to see it just do like oh, well, you know, a little |
| 106 | 00:18:53,730 --> 00:19:03,930 | lethargic run here. That's not enough. This is like that elephant falling into that children's swimming pool. It's no doubt about it, it really had a |
| 107 | 00:19:03,930 --> 00:19:09,030 | displacement. When that occurs, then you go in, you start looking for the fair guy, you got |
| 108 | 00:19:10,530 --> 00:19:23,700 | the low, the high. And if it trades back up into that, then you can look for a short. Okay? There's a process that you go through learning it. And it's good |
| 109 | 00:19:23,700 --> 00:19:33,420 | that three of you were very critical about it, but but trust me, there's rules for a reason. And I'm not trying to hide failure because these patents sometimes |
| 110 | 00:19:33,420 --> 00:19:42,060 | will fail you. Okay? You'll read them wrong or they just won't work. Okay, sometimes the market will have some kind of a news event that comes out or just |
| 111 | 00:19:42,060 --> 00:19:49,410 | simply just rolls over top of it and goes higher goes lower. That's a losing trade. That's why you have to have a stop loss. That's why you have to have good |
| 112 | 00:19:49,410 --> 00:19:58,080 | sound money management because if you don't have those things Murphy's Law is going to creep in and whatever can go wrong will and if you leave it open to the |
| 113 | 00:19:58,080 --> 00:20:09,240 | markets determination how bad the paint He's going to be, trust me, you don't want that. You want to limit that. So now we have this previous high, previous |
| 114 | 00:20:09,240 --> 00:20:15,450 | low. Now if we did not, it is really important that you understand this part here. If we don't start seeing these higher highs forming, and it's just one |
| 115 | 00:20:15,450 --> 00:20:23,670 | steady run up, then you anticipate a highlight this to be taken out. And it doesn't need to be taken out by much. Just trade above it. And then you want to |
| 116 | 00:20:23,670 --> 00:20:31,170 | look for this energetic movement lower that's displacement, where it's really animated. So in other words, it would look like when you're looking at your |
| 117 | 00:20:31,170 --> 00:20:42,330 | chart that's a little bit more pronounced because it went above this previous high here. You're looking at this one, but as it's starting to move towards that |
| 118 | 00:20:42,330 --> 00:20:52,890 | Oh, hi. mean, we're 830 prior to that you're looking for what's this? It does swing high. Yes. So it's triggered above it here? Does it have an energetic |
| 119 | 00:20:52,920 --> 00:21:03,960 | break below that? No, it's just a very weak, anemic, move lower, then you have another run higher here. And then you had this wick or tail come down, and it |
| 120 | 00:21:03,960 --> 00:21:13,680 | quickly snaps back? Does that create a fair value gap in that? No, it's not there yet. Then it goes higher here doesn't go above it matches that high. But |
| 121 | 00:21:13,680 --> 00:21:22,530 | then now this high? Watch, does it go below that? Yes, a little bit here, but it's a little anemic still. But then look what we have here. It trades up and |
| 122 | 00:21:22,530 --> 00:21:34,740 | then smashes down. And the next candle here closes? What do we have? There's your fair value gap. That's your short. And you could reach for the liquidity |
| 123 | 00:21:34,740 --> 00:21:45,540 | resting below that low that you would be identifying prior to 830. So sell side liquidity, matching up with your short you sell, you want to buy it back that |
| 124 | 00:21:45,540 --> 00:22:00,060 | cover that short? Well, here's waiting sellers right down here in the form of sell stops. Bam, hits it, okay? Putting aside that, you may not have seen this |
| 125 | 00:22:00,060 --> 00:22:12,330 | as a long entry. Okay, maybe you didn't see this as a potential continuation of bullishness. But look at these highs here. What's resting above that now, by |
| 126 | 00:22:12,330 --> 00:22:21,990 | stops by sound liquidity. And then what do we have here right before lunch hour, it goes slightly above it, and then trades down and then more in that time of |
| 127 | 00:22:21,990 --> 00:22:31,620 | the day, you don't trade it New York lunch hour noon to one, don't trade it. Okay, do not trade it, you can do a lot of weird things in that hour word simply |
| 128 | 00:22:31,620 --> 00:22:41,040 | do nothing and go sideways. But either way, you don't want to be a participant in that because it's just it's not usually a clean time of day for price action. |
| 129 | 00:22:41,850 --> 00:22:50,340 | So now here we have the high of the day. And all the liquidity resting out here that would not have been tagged by this the Lord's stop stressing a little bit |
| 130 | 00:22:50,640 --> 00:22:57,930 | above that, because there's a lot of people trying to sell short, they want to they want to see this thing go lower. But we created a very important low last |
| 131 | 00:22:57,930 --> 00:23:09,510 | week and the market has already tanked a lot. So it's pulling back up in the run that it created going lower on a daily chart. So all these buy side liquidity |
| 132 | 00:23:09,660 --> 00:23:20,400 | pools here are going to be a reason for the market to want to reach up to that because you don't have to be a participant down here as a buyer, you just need |
| 133 | 00:23:20,400 --> 00:23:27,840 | to know on the other side of lunch at one o'clock start watching and see is there an indication that this thing wants to go higher |
| 134 | 00:23:34,140 --> 00:23:53,070 | as you can see all the buy side liquidity here was ran aggressively here. But then the market trades right into the close aggressively bullish small little |
| 135 | 00:23:53,070 --> 00:24:02,100 | retracement here small little retracement here and then immediate run right into the close. Now obviously the market trades a little bit beyond that. But this |
| 136 | 00:24:02,100 --> 00:24:12,690 | time of day, expect whatever algorithms that you would expect to be driving price in price runs to pretty much cap the the majority of the volume that's |
| 137 | 00:24:12,690 --> 00:24:26,220 | going to be in that day. So what I want you to think about is how the days designed to have a morning, move a lunch hour where you don't want to be |
| 138 | 00:24:26,220 --> 00:24:36,690 | trading. And then the afternoon move. Go back through your charts and you can go back as far as you want. The more you do this, the better you'll get. But I want |
| 139 | 00:24:36,690 --> 00:24:48,690 | you to think about creating your charts like this. And then describing what the morning trend was. Was it a bullish move? Was it a bearish move? Was it |
| 140 | 00:24:48,690 --> 00:24:58,410 | consolidation? If it was consolidation prior to that part of the day, in other words the previous day or the previous days? Was it bullish or bearish then |
| 141 | 00:24:59,430 --> 00:25:07,380 | because if it was bullish this is probably setting up Miller continuation higher, especially if you start seeing these relative equal highs forming where |
| 142 | 00:25:07,380 --> 00:25:16,500 | it paints the idea that this is retail resistance. So traders are going to think that this is going to go lower. And that starts to build up a lot more interest |
| 143 | 00:25:16,530 --> 00:25:24,870 | in the form of buy side liquidity, or buying interest at a high price, even though that those traders may be framing the context of their trades as a short |
| 144 | 00:25:24,870 --> 00:25:34,230 | entry, trying to make money going lower their protective stop, if they choose to use one, it's going to be in the form of a buy stop in this is where it's going |
| 145 | 00:25:34,230 --> 00:25:43,410 | to be at. So the markets going to want to gravitate towards that, especially if you start seeing the swing lows, not the one in lunchtime, ignore that one, you |
| 146 | 00:25:43,410 --> 00:25:51,180 | start seeing the swing lows that are forming every candle has a higher low to the left and higher low to the right. If they start building up, and every time |
| 147 | 00:25:51,180 --> 00:26:03,450 | they create a new one, it's going higher. That's a under painting on the marketplace that showing accumulation, it wants to go up. Because it wants to |
| 148 | 00:26:03,450 --> 00:26:14,100 | clean out all this here. Plus, we've been going up for a few days on the daily chart. Plus the sentiment is everybody thinks it's been going down. So they all |
| 149 | 00:26:14,100 --> 00:26:21,720 | want to sell short, because they want to see a stock market crash. But what they are failing to realize is we've already went down below an old low on the daily |
| 150 | 00:26:21,720 --> 00:26:31,680 | chart. So now we're running back the other direction. In anyone that's trying to sell short unless it's a real quick, intraday scalp. They're having their clocks |
| 151 | 00:26:31,680 --> 00:26:44,820 | cleaned. So in the afternoon, there's a trend. And one of the built in characteristics of the afternoon is there's mechanisms that are built in that |
| 152 | 00:26:44,820 --> 00:26:54,210 | help this market really accelerate into the clothes. And if you studied the price action in your lower timeframe charts, you'll see that there's a repeating |
| 153 | 00:26:54,240 --> 00:27:07,410 | phenomenon, it's typically around 20 minutes to four and 10 minutes before and four o'clock. And it's all based on market on close orders. That's really what |
| 154 | 00:27:07,410 --> 00:27:17,310 | it is okay, and the algorithms will start spitting out really, really aggressive pricing, and forcing traders to either cover or |
| 155 | 00:27:18,690 --> 00:27:29,280 | get out of the trades. And usually, if it's going up, it really just ramps up and accelerates in that direction. So while I really enjoy trading the morning |
| 156 | 00:27:29,280 --> 00:27:38,760 | session, because there's a lot of volatility and excitement, if you're looking for if you know what your daily biases, and we'll talk about that next week, if |
| 157 | 00:27:38,760 --> 00:27:46,200 | you know your daily biases, and if you know what you're looking for in terms of range expansion on the daily chart note, what do I mean by that? The daily |
| 158 | 00:27:46,200 --> 00:27:55,980 | candle? Do you expect it to trade higher or lower? You're not trying to predict, you know, every single daily candles close, but you're trying to determine Do |
| 159 | 00:27:55,980 --> 00:28:05,190 | you think that the daily candle you're looking at forming today, or what would be forming tomorrow? Is it more likely to be expanding higher or lower? If it's |
| 160 | 00:28:05,190 --> 00:28:15,000 | expanding higher in your analysis, that means you want to try to trade with the expectation of find a trade in the afternoon, based on the logic that was used |
| 161 | 00:28:15,000 --> 00:28:25,950 | in the morning. So in other words, think about what I taught in forex. The daily range, okay, green, a initial high of the day and the low of the day here. Now, |
| 162 | 00:28:25,950 --> 00:28:37,680 | this is not the time of London. But this would be like what I teach as a London low in a buy day for forex, this would be the low the day, then we consolidate. |
| 163 | 00:28:38,010 --> 00:28:46,980 | And then we get to New York continuation. And it runs in the same direction that the london session formed. But this is not London, this is all New York Time |
| 164 | 00:28:47,010 --> 00:28:56,820 | says a little bit of adjusting that needs to be taken into consideration. Which is why I made sure the beginning of video I said make sure your charts are set |
| 165 | 00:28:56,820 --> 00:29:07,950 | to New York time over here. It needs to be that okay. And if you don't have it like that, everything you're learning here, if it's at your local time, in your |
| 166 | 00:29:07,950 --> 00:29:16,410 | local timezone, it's going to be a mess. So you need to calibrate your charts on trading view to that and everything I'm showing you here. Is this the same thing |
| 167 | 00:29:16,410 --> 00:29:27,870 | every day, every single day, same thing. So back to the homework assignment. I want you to think about outlining what the session was in the morning. And then |
| 168 | 00:29:27,870 --> 00:29:36,390 | what did the session do in the afternoon. Sometimes what you'll see is it'll be bullish in the morning, and then reverse in the afternoon, or it'll be bullish |
| 169 | 00:29:36,390 --> 00:29:44,490 | in the morning and continuation higher in the afternoon. And you'll get like a measured move, what's a measured move, whatever the morning move was it'll |
| 170 | 00:29:44,520 --> 00:29:56,160 | duplicate that twice. So if it moves up 200 points in the morning, the afternoon could see another 200 points in addition to that and have a four point range or |
| 171 | 00:29:56,160 --> 00:30:04,140 | we can have consolidation in the morning session. And then it trends In the afternoon, higher or lower, okay, and I want you to go through your charts and |
| 172 | 00:30:04,140 --> 00:30:11,850 | look at that, on an intraday basis, do your charts like this, and I know it's a lot of work, but you want to learn how to do it, right? This is how you do it. |
| 173 | 00:30:13,290 --> 00:30:26,700 | Then study what the daily chart was showing days before, when it had these, they had these nice runs like this, and yesterday and previous Friday. So it allows |
| 174 | 00:30:26,700 --> 00:30:36,930 | you to help find these big moves. Where if you're looking at other, like, I'm not going to say this to try to be mean spirited, because that's not my intent |
| 175 | 00:30:36,930 --> 00:30:47,850 | here. But I want you to compare and contrast. Like if you look around at all the folks on YouTube. And again, this isn't, this is not me trying to be arrogant, I |
| 176 | 00:30:47,850 --> 00:31:00,120 | just want you to understand there's a stark contrast to what I'm teaching you here. And what is predominantly shown in this area of trading, okay, index |
| 177 | 00:31:00,120 --> 00:31:18,600 | futures, you'll see traders that all get in here. And they get a price like that. And then they're going to make a big attempt to worry about a move |
| 178 | 00:31:24,450 --> 00:31:34,500 | like that. And they'll put lots of contracts on and trade this and have a whole lot of hype and anxiety about whether or not it's going to move in their favor, |
| 179 | 00:31:34,740 --> 00:31:43,020 | and worry about their stock getting hit and all this stuff. And I don't want you thinking like that. Okay, I don't want you thinking like that at all, I want you |
| 180 | 00:31:43,020 --> 00:31:52,050 | to think about how if this day was bullish for you, say you had the benefit of knowing that through analysis, you felt that this is going to go higher. Okay, |
| 181 | 00:31:52,050 --> 00:32:05,850 | if that's the case, this swing low here. First, swing low of any importance after 130 is really important. 130 I'm looking for swing highs and swing lows |
| 182 | 00:32:05,850 --> 00:32:14,580 | for the afternoon session. That's what I'm looking for. It's the same context that I use for the morning session. I'm looking for swing highs and swing lows |
| 183 | 00:32:14,580 --> 00:32:23,610 | prior to 830. I'm looking for the first one. Okay, I'm not needing to go back days and days and days. I'm just looking for the first one. It's not a |
| 184 | 00:32:23,610 --> 00:32:34,830 | complicated thing. But at 130, that's usually when I'm wanting to start trading the afternoon. That's the earliest, but I'm preferably looking for a swing high |
| 185 | 00:32:34,830 --> 00:32:44,490 | and swing low to form at 130. Why 130 Because there's an algorithm macro that starts running at 130. That's beyond the scope of this mentorship. But just |
| 186 | 00:32:44,490 --> 00:32:57,270 | trust me, there is something going on, that creates movement at 130. In the New York session, okay in equity market. So when that occurs, all we're looking for, |
| 187 | 00:32:57,300 --> 00:33:06,480 | or what I'm looking for, is a swing high and swing low. And then that same basis of looking for a stoplight in the morning, like we described here, I'm looking |
| 188 | 00:33:06,480 --> 00:33:16,050 | for the same thing here. It's it, same thing. So now think about this, I'm I'm thinking that these thoughts are in jeopardy, because it's to clean the levels |
| 189 | 00:33:16,050 --> 00:33:26,040 | to clean, straight line edges in the market. They don't tend to stay like that. There's going to be disruption. The markets been going higher, hasn't it? Yes. |
| 190 | 00:33:27,570 --> 00:33:40,500 | There's just pent up aggression, that this market wants to go higher. But it seems short term resistance here, here it tried a little bit here and then |
| 191 | 00:33:40,530 --> 00:33:53,190 | retraced inside the lunch hour, the algorithm reserved the price run until later in the day. And watch what happens. This swing low here gets violated right |
| 192 | 00:33:53,190 --> 00:34:06,900 | there. That Swing Low gets violated right there. That small little stop Hunt is all that's necessary. That will start what is called a by program a by program |
| 193 | 00:34:06,900 --> 00:34:16,710 | is when the algorithms go into the process of spooling spooling is where it just continuously keeps offering higher prices. If it's a bi program, it just keeps |
| 194 | 00:34:16,740 --> 00:34:24,960 | offering higher prices. It does not matter what the volume is, it does not matter. And I don't care who you know who worked at exchange, I don't care. |
| 195 | 00:34:25,350 --> 00:34:35,910 | Trust me when I tell you, if you go through the charts, you're going to see this. Okay, look at the volume that comes in. Sometimes it'd be good volume and |
| 196 | 00:34:35,910 --> 00:34:46,110 | another like, why is this happening? Right? That's, that's your signature. That's how you know that this is being completely manipulated. So if it's being |
| 197 | 00:34:46,110 --> 00:34:54,060 | manipulated, doesn't it stand profitable for you to know what it's likely to do? You're going to know it all the time. You're not going to know I don't know it |
| 198 | 00:34:54,060 --> 00:35:05,520 | all the time. But these things tend to repeat. And if they repeat a majority Time not every day. But the majority of time, if these things are in alignment, |
| 199 | 00:35:06,300 --> 00:35:18,720 | if they start showing the same fingerprints, it's probably going to pan out. And then you can start doing long entries. And then hold for the clothes. Don't get |
| 200 | 00:35:18,720 --> 00:35:28,590 | in here and try to trade these little Mickey mouse moves and worry about them and over leverage and try to put more contracts on than your account can really |
| 201 | 00:35:28,590 --> 00:35:38,430 | weather because if you don't know what you're doing cheap leverage discount leverage, can murder you can absolutely murder you in especially in these kind |
| 202 | 00:35:38,430 --> 00:35:48,930 | of markets. They're very fast markets right now. I'm loving it. But it's very quick, violent volatility. And if you don't know what you're doing, you can |
| 203 | 00:35:48,960 --> 00:36:03,480 | literally be dismantled. Very quickly expediently. Okay, so, inside this area, the market creates a swing low, runs through this low stop on to the stops below |
| 204 | 00:36:03,480 --> 00:36:14,070 | here what? Sell stops. By those sell stops. I know it feels scary. But go through your chart, you'll see many examples of this happening. The same thing |
| 205 | 00:36:14,070 --> 00:36:21,450 | took place over here by the cell stops that are resting below here and expect this level to be taken |
| 206 | 00:36:21,450 --> 00:36:34,200 | out. Consolidation through lunch, after 130 Afternoon, wait for a swing low to be violated. And in rally, what if you don't get a swing loaded trades below it? |
| 207 | 00:36:34,260 --> 00:36:46,590 | What do you look for? Well, you look for a move higher that sudden, displacement higher, then look for a February gap. If it trades back down to the fair value |
| 208 | 00:36:46,590 --> 00:36:54,750 | gap, you buy that there's your two patterns. That's it. It's the only two patterns you need. You don't need 15 Different gimmicky names, okay, you don't |
| 209 | 00:36:54,750 --> 00:37:05,010 | need breakers, you don't need an order block. So easy. That is very simple strategy. Very, very simple strategy. You have a trade one way or the other. And |
| 210 | 00:37:05,700 --> 00:37:17,760 | the logic has to be there for either one of them to form. Now, I was not in the E Mini s&p Today, I was trading NASDAQ. So let's go over to NASDAQ. And I'm |
| 211 | 00:37:17,760 --> 00:37:31,410 | going to save time and not put all the lipstick on the chart. Hope you can allow me that. But here is 130. We have a swing low there. And it's basically almost |
| 212 | 00:37:31,410 --> 00:37:47,880 | the same low as that one. So what's happening here? What's that? It's trading down below it. See that? Look further to the left? What's that? Fear Vega? Oh, |
| 213 | 00:37:48,510 --> 00:38:00,120 | man, it can't be that easy. It can't be that easy. These relatively equal highs, what's above that bias on liquidity? Okay, watch, I'm gonna drop into a one |
| 214 | 00:38:00,120 --> 00:38:26,520 | minute chart. Scrub back here to 130. And I don't need to do 20 contracts, or 10 contracts to do like a $20,000. Day. That's kind of like the flavor of the month |
| 215 | 00:38:26,520 --> 00:38:39,900 | right now. And if you look at this low and this low here, what are those, they're relatively equal lows. So that's going to be viewed as what support |
| 216 | 00:38:40,380 --> 00:38:52,890 | retail support. And they're going to buy those little runs here, they're basically going to chase that. So if you look at this through the scope of below |
| 217 | 00:38:52,890 --> 00:39:04,020 | this level, they're selling sell stops, and you think it's going to go higher. Like I believed it was going to go higher today. I want to be buying those |
| 218 | 00:39:04,020 --> 00:39:15,330 | thoughts. Alright, so say you're watching price, it's meandering, through, through through, and then all of a sudden, that swing low forms right there. And |
| 219 | 00:39:15,330 --> 00:39:23,820 | we have this low here, and we have the sudden drop down. When you see that. If you're watching it on a like a one minute chart, that's going to look so |
| 220 | 00:39:23,820 --> 00:39:38,160 | dynamic, so aggressive. If you're zoomed in, it's going to feel like the floor has just dropped out. But that's exactly what you're looking for, to buy. Now, |
| 221 | 00:39:38,280 --> 00:39:51,990 | you see fellas out there on YouTube, you're gonna see my contrast. There are folks out there that are trying to trade you know, just a handful of ticks with |
| 222 | 00:39:51,990 --> 00:40:01,290 | a lot of contracts. That to me doesn't make any sense. But if that works for you, then great okay. But I want you to think about In comparison, and by |
| 223 | 00:40:01,290 --> 00:40:15,570 | contrast, what seems more logical for you to feel it's worth more to pursue and study and learn how to do something like that, where it's risk a lot, put a lot |
| 224 | 00:40:15,570 --> 00:40:25,680 | behind the trade, and try to get just a little bit of a move. or Now, this is a demo account. Okay, but I did trade live today too. But for the purposes of |
| 225 | 00:40:25,680 --> 00:40:45,450 | teaching the content right there, that low is the lowest candle. It rallies all the way up. Okay. And then right here, that was a close, there's a better way to |
| 226 | 00:40:45,450 --> 00:40:59,100 | do this, if you know what you're looking for, you can be very, very precise about it, you can be dialed in, like nobody's business like it is unbelievable, |
| 227 | 00:40:59,400 --> 00:41:06,720 | in terms of the predictable nature of these markets, especially these markets, because they're, they're traded by a lot of institutions, and a lot of |
| 228 | 00:41:06,720 --> 00:41:14,220 | professional traders, the manipulation that takes place in these markets is still there. But it's not as |
| 229 | 00:41:15,750 --> 00:41:30,060 | well, vulgar, or ruthless, as it is sometimes in forex, the interbank markets, and they can really, really dirty quick. And more frequently, the futures |
| 230 | 00:41:30,060 --> 00:41:38,880 | market, they tend to be a little bit more cleaner, a little bit more predictable, much more nicer in their delivery. Now, there are times when |
| 231 | 00:41:38,910 --> 00:41:50,340 | reports come out or something, you know, unannounced comes into the world scene and causes volatility. When that occurs, then you'll get that noisy lock to |
| 232 | 00:41:50,340 --> 00:41:59,520 | price action, just stand on the sidelines, wait for things to smooth out. It may not be that same trading day may require you a day or maybe even a week, let the |
| 233 | 00:41:59,520 --> 00:42:11,700 | markets go back into sync. And then they'll start delivering very nice again. But the main thing I want you to take away is that showing entries like this and |
| 234 | 00:42:11,700 --> 00:42:29,250 | exits and stuff. It's not it's not all that much of a big deal, okay. But it becomes a sticking point, okay, a stumbling block. For people that want to try |
| 235 | 00:42:29,250 --> 00:42:40,350 | to learn how to do this, because if you lay it in front of them, they have to have lots of contracts, to do something to be profitable. In such a small little |
| 236 | 00:42:40,350 --> 00:42:48,540 | move. To me, it communicates that that person that's trying to trade like that, whether it's the person that created the system, or someone that's trying to |
| 237 | 00:42:48,540 --> 00:42:56,670 | learn the system, they really have no idea how price works, and how it books, because if they did, they wouldn't be trying to take these little tiny little |
| 238 | 00:42:56,670 --> 00:43:10,380 | micro moves of the marketplace, they will be traded, like I'm showing you here. So if you were to think to yourself, hey, I want to know what it's like to be in |
| 239 | 00:43:10,380 --> 00:43:21,480 | a move where I can be comfortable knowing that the daily range is going to unfold. And I'm just going to submit to it. Well, these markets offer that Forex |
| 240 | 00:43:21,480 --> 00:43:32,730 | offers it too. But right now, in the last couple months, really, forex has been rather funky. Okay. And because of that, we have transitioned to index futures. |
| 241 | 00:43:33,630 --> 00:43:44,160 | There are times of the year where I teach index futures trading because they're predominantly more liquid. And or if there's no real topic for me to teach them |
| 242 | 00:43:44,160 --> 00:43:52,560 | my pay mentorship group, I'll say I got nothing for you for forex in and I'll point to something in futures, it may be a commodity market, like last year, I |
| 243 | 00:43:52,560 --> 00:44:00,420 | told everybody by the grain markets, they were gonna have a huge bull market, boom, they went up. It's a matter of knowing how to navigate the price action, |
| 244 | 00:44:00,540 --> 00:44:14,070 | okay, but these markets here, except for the summer, summer months, and that being like July and August, those months can be a little hit or miss. But the |
| 245 | 00:44:14,070 --> 00:44:23,460 | rest of the year, they tend to be really nice markets. So if you're looking to have your trading business framed on a asset class that is really nice. It's |
| 246 | 00:44:23,460 --> 00:44:34,680 | professionally delivered, where it's not like a bucket shop, you know, penny stock type market, it's these markets are really nice. They're very systematic |
| 247 | 00:44:34,680 --> 00:44:43,710 | in the way they do things, and they repeat, but if you don't know what you're looking for, or understanding behind these mechanics that I'm outlining here, at |
| 248 | 00:44:43,710 --> 00:44:55,080 | the very basic level, then you can obviously hurt yourself still. So right away, I'm showing you that there are times in the day you want to be looking for |
| 249 | 00:44:55,080 --> 00:45:04,860 | setups, you're not trying to do 25 trades, you're not trying to do 30 trades You know, and you're trying to micro scalp, you're looking for the real moves in the |
| 250 | 00:45:04,860 --> 00:45:12,360 | morning in the real moves in the afternoon. And preferably, if you get one in the morning, you don't trade in the afternoon, go to a demo and practice there. |
| 251 | 00:45:12,840 --> 00:45:20,520 | Don't give the money back to the marketplace, especially while you're, you're new. Don't do that. And I'm actually telling you not to trade with live funds. |
| 252 | 00:45:20,850 --> 00:45:34,950 | But I know a lot of you like to see things that are trading with a live account, like it's a real account that shows entries and, and things of that nature. And |
| 253 | 00:45:34,950 --> 00:45:45,240 | that's the things I'm doing this year. Okay. I'm not going to do it in 2023. I'm not going to do it forever. Okay, I did it so that way my students can feel at |
| 254 | 00:45:45,240 --> 00:45:53,220 | ease about it. Because even in my my MIP mentorship group, I don't trade live funds there. Because for my protection, I'm doing what I'm showing you right |
| 255 | 00:45:53,220 --> 00:46:01,830 | here in a demo, but I've been showing Live account trades to prove that it works. So hopefully you found this insightful and until I talk to you on |
| 256 | 00:46:01,830 --> 00:46:03,390 | Thursday, be safe |