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2 |1 |00:00:11 ~-~-> 00:00:16 |ICT: Hello folks, Long time, no see, all right, so we're going to look at
3 |2 |00:00:17 ~-~-> 00:00:25 |Bitcoin, okay, before I get into this as a reminder, I have never traded Bitcoin.
4 |3 |00:00:26 ~-~-> 00:00:32 |Never traded Bitcoin outside of, you know, the paper trading venues that you
5 |4 |00:00:32 ~-~-> 00:00:39 |see here on trading view. I practice and dabble in it because there's a lot of
6 |5 |00:00:39 ~-~-> 00:00:43 |interest in it with my students, and I promise I won't give you a real long,
7 |6 |00:00:43 ~-~-> 00:00:49 |boring monolog, but I just want to preface it by saying that the times that
8 |7 |00:00:49 ~-~-> 00:00:57 |I do come out and make public calls with crypto, it takes a lot of time to scroll
9 |8 |00:00:57 ~-~-> 00:01:02 |back through my Community tab on my YouTube channel, but I've made some
10 |9 |00:01:02 ~-~-> 00:01:08 |pretty significant calls on crypto. I have been wrong a few times. I'm not say
11 |10 |00:01:08 ~-~-> 00:01:15 |few. It's like maybe four. I know it's less than five times I was wrong. But
12 |11 |00:01:15 ~-~-> 00:01:20 |the major, significant price moves, the big crash before it got to 20,000 I
13 |12 |00:01:20 ~-~-> 00:01:27 |called that 6000 and then I called six to 3000 didn't get quite down to 3000 I
14 |13 |00:01:27 ~-~-> 00:01:32 |think it was like 3200 don't quote me on that, because I'm not proficient in
15 |14 |00:01:32 ~-~-> 00:01:37 |crypto. I don't really have all the major significant lows. But ended up
16 |15 |00:01:37 ~-~-> 00:01:42 |telling everyone that if it ever went to 20,000 I would tell you publicly before
17 |16 |00:01:42 ~-~-> 00:01:46 |it happened. Before it happened. And I'd said it in 2020 I said we would hit
18 |17 |00:01:46 ~-~-> 00:01:55 |20,000 on Bitcoin by Christmas, and then 30,000 by New Year's. And then I called
19 |18 |00:01:55 ~-~-> 00:02:01 |50,060 1000, and I couldn't see anything beyond 60,000 well, you can look at
20 |19 |00:02:01 ~-~-> 00:02:05 |history, and you can look at the community posts, and there you are. It
21 |20 |00:02:07 ~-~-> 00:02:11 |doesn't mean anything. Okay, I didn't trade it with money, and I know a lot of
22 |21 |00:02:11 ~-~-> 00:02:21 |you like to count pocket change, but I'm actively investigating, if you will,
23 |22 |00:02:21 ~-~-> 00:02:27 |these markets the crypto circuit trading them anytime soon, if at all, really, to
24 |23 |00:02:27 ~-~-> 00:02:32 |be honest with you, but I'm intrigued, because they move around a lot when they
25 |24 |00:02:32 ~-~-> 00:02:39 |do move, but they act very fickle most of the time. And because of that, I am
26 |25 |00:02:39 ~-~-> 00:02:46 |not sold on the idea of putting money into an account to trade them. Okay? So
27 |26 |00:02:46 ~-~-> 00:02:50 |with all that said, just know that I'm not trying to come out and be your
28 |27 |00:02:51 ~-~-> 00:02:57 |friendly neighborhood crypto guru. I'm just sharing something I put on my
29 |28 |00:02:57 ~-~-> 00:03:06 |community tab the other day. Now, when I was looking at Bitcoin, I could sit here
30 |29 |00:03:06 ~-~-> 00:03:11 |and say, when I was watching price trade up to this level here, I was wanting to
31 |30 |00:03:11 ~-~-> 00:03:16 |see it go lower, and to say something like that in this video doesn't really
32 |31 |00:03:16 ~-~-> 00:03:19 |mean anything to anyone. It's going to sound like, Well, anybody can do that,
33 |32 |00:03:20 ~-~-> 00:03:26 |and I'm trying to avoid those types of straw man arguments. But clearly, anyone
34 |33 |00:03:26 ~-~-> 00:03:31 |that's been training on my YouTube channel, you can see this high, the low
35 |34 |00:03:31 ~-~-> 00:03:35 |and the higher high, if it breaks, that comes back up to that. That's what I
36 |35 |00:03:35 ~-~-> 00:03:39 |teach as my breaker. Okay, so it's this down closed candle, right there. That's
37 |36 |00:03:39 ~-~-> 00:03:45 |the breaker. It's not this, it's not that low. It's this candle right here.
38 |37 |00:03:46 ~-~-> 00:03:53 |Okay, so I want to go into the details of what I meant by sharing this chart. I
39 |38 |00:03:53 ~-~-> 00:04:00 |put the link up in my community tab, and the post is on November 15, 2021 and I
40 |39 |00:04:00 ~-~-> 00:04:06 |keep telling myself to make a note of putting the time and the date on the
41 |40 |00:04:06 ~-~-> 00:04:11 |Community tab for whatever reason, it doesn't do that. So YouTube's listening.
42 |41 |00:04:11 ~-~-> 00:04:15 |That's one thing you can improve on your platform, because I don't remember to do
43 |42 |00:04:15 ~-~-> 00:04:18 |it. But nonetheless, there's a lot of people out there. They they copy my
44 |43 |00:04:18 ~-~-> 00:04:24 |posts and they put them other things and share them. They keep a running log of
45 |44 |00:04:24 ~-~-> 00:04:29 |them, which is great, but if you're just trying to use my own community tab to
46 |45 |00:04:29 ~-~-> 00:04:32 |keep track of what I'm saying when I'm saying it, you're gonna have to rely on
47 |46 |00:04:32 ~-~-> 00:04:37 |the chart itself. And it's good because it gives you the time up here and the
48 |47 |00:04:37 ~-~-> 00:04:43 |date. So this was done at that time, and it's on trading view. It's not
49 |48 |00:04:43 ~-~-> 00:04:49 |manipulated, it's not photoshopped, it's not augmented in any kind of way. The
50 |49 |00:04:49 ~-~-> 00:04:53 |link takes you right into trading view, okay? And I had this little icon down
51 |50 |00:04:53 ~-~-> 00:04:59 |here, that eyeball. And if you're new to me when I used to teach on Twitter,
52 |51 |00:04:59 ~-~-> 00:05:04 |which I'm not on. Twitter anymore. I am not on Facebook anymore. I don't have
53 |52 |00:05:04 ~-~-> 00:05:08 |any social media accounts. So if you see anybody out there claiming to be me or
54 |53 |00:05:08 ~-~-> 00:05:13 |running an organization on my mentorship, it's not it's not me. Okay?
55 |54 |00:05:13 ~-~-> 00:05:18 |I don't do that. I only operate on my own personal form and mentorship. This
56 |55 |00:05:18 ~-~-> 00:05:25 |YouTube channel and I have a telegram channel, which I very rarely even use,
57 |56 |00:05:25 ~-~-> 00:05:32 |but I promise to use it a lot in 2022 so the eyeball icon, I use that as a way of
58 |57 |00:05:32 ~-~-> 00:05:37 |teaching you visually where your focus as my student, should be on any
59 |58 |00:05:37 ~-~-> 00:05:42 |particular market. So basically, what I'm saying is, when I shared this chart,
60 |59 |00:05:42 ~-~-> 00:05:50 |when it was trading right here, without saying it, without saying, Go short,
61 |60 |00:05:50 ~-~-> 00:05:55 |which I'm not licensed to do, without saying, Get into a trade, which is
62 |61 |00:05:55 ~-~-> 00:06:00 |something I'm not licensed to do. I want you as my student is learning my
63 |62 |00:06:00 ~-~-> 00:06:11 |concepts to, I guess, study it long enough to see if it does go down into
64 |63 |00:06:11 ~-~-> 00:06:17 |this level here. Now why would I assume that this level would be important? I'm
65 |64 |00:06:17 ~-~-> 00:06:27 |going to cover that and why right from here it should drop. So here is a more
66 |65 |00:06:27 ~-~-> 00:06:31 |recent daily chart. At the time of this recording, I just grabbed some
67 |66 |00:06:32 ~-~-> 00:06:37 |screenshots and throw them in a PowerPoint, and I want you to take a
68 |67 |00:06:37 ~-~-> 00:06:45 |look at what has happened since April of 2021, we had this high here. Mark came
69 |68 |00:06:45 ~-~-> 00:06:52 |down, failed to go lower, rallied, actually, if you go back into my
70 |69 |00:06:52 ~-~-> 00:06:57 |community tab, also, I mentioned down in here that while it's great, it's been
71 |70 |00:06:58 ~-~-> 00:07:02 |bearish, and we were expecting some bearishness from in here that it's good
72 |71 |00:07:02 ~-~-> 00:07:06 |to take your profits in here, and ended up becoming an important low. I didn't
73 |72 |00:07:06 ~-~-> 00:07:13 |call it higher from there, so that way we're fair. But when price was trading
74 |73 |00:07:13 ~-~-> 00:07:22 |back above this high here, I had a paper trade loan that I was working with, and
75 |74 |00:07:22 ~-~-> 00:07:29 |I was basically working with a run from here and here and again, practicing with
76 |75 |00:07:29 ~-~-> 00:07:34 |this asset class. I don't do a lot of it. I'm not in here every day with it,
77 |76 |00:07:34 ~-~-> 00:07:38 |but when the daily chart and four hour chart kind of like, Give me something to
78 |77 |00:07:38 ~-~-> 00:07:43 |work with that I'm used to seeing usually pan out in other markets, then
79 |78 |00:07:43 ~-~-> 00:07:48 |I'll dabble in it, and I don't make a big deal about it. I don't say, look at
80 |79 |00:07:48 ~-~-> 00:07:53 |this every day in my mentorship, my students are not bombarded with things
81 |80 |00:07:53 ~-~-> 00:07:59 |that are crypto I, in fact, I I loathe this because it doesn't give me the
82 |81 |00:07:59 ~-~-> 00:08:02 |things I'm used to seeing in the markets that I enjoy, which is futures and four
83 |82 |00:08:02 ~-~-> 00:08:12 |and forex. So if I were to trade every single day and try to engage this market
84 |83 |00:08:12 ~-~-> 00:08:19 |like I do with Forex, okay, or index futures or the equivalent, I would have
85 |84 |00:08:19 ~-~-> 00:08:26 |a lot of losses, because the things that I'm looking for in futures and forex,
86 |85 |00:08:27 ~-~-> 00:08:34 |they don't exist to the same degree and efficiency in this asset class. Now I'm
87 |86 |00:08:34 ~-~-> 00:08:39 |not saying that it won't do it in the future. That's what I'm intrigued about.
88 |87 |00:08:39 ~-~-> 00:08:45 |Like I want to see is it growing towards that level of efficiency? If it does,
89 |88 |00:08:46 ~-~-> 00:08:51 |then I will absolutely be going into this asset class and be very vocal about
90 |89 |00:08:51 ~-~-> 00:08:57 |it. But for those enthusiasts that have always tried to convert me into a crypto
91 |90 |00:08:57 ~-~-> 00:09:02 |trader, I do dabble in it, and once in a while, when I see something I'm very
92 |91 |00:09:02 ~-~-> 00:09:10 |confident about, I'll make my views public. I do not have 90% strike rate in
93 |92 |00:09:10 ~-~-> 00:09:16 |this in my case studies, and when I'm practicing the times that I do show,
94 |93 |00:09:17 ~-~-> 00:09:21 |they're pretty consistent, and it's because I'm looking at things that would
95 |94 |00:09:21 ~-~-> 00:09:26 |otherwise line up with sound logic, with price action. I want to cover that now.
96 |95 |00:09:26 ~-~-> 00:09:30 |So we had this high here in April, and we traded back above. And you saw me
97 |96 |00:09:30 ~-~-> 00:09:35 |exit a trade, and I said, sometimes crypto does. We're not expecting it to,
98 |97 |00:09:35 ~-~-> 00:09:41 |like in forex or futures, and then it collapsed trade back down to an order
99 |98 |00:09:41 ~-~-> 00:09:46 |block here, rally a little bit consolidated and then sent it one more
100 |99 |00:09:46 ~-~-> 00:09:51 |time higher than that high. Now think about what's happening here. We have an
101 |100 |00:09:51 ~-~-> 00:09:52 |old high
102 |101 |00:09:53 ~-~-> 00:09:59 |over six months ago, so that's an important high, lot to decline from
103 |102 |00:09:59 ~-~-> 00:10:04 |there. And liquidity was tagged here, and it broke down, and then one more
104 |103 |00:10:04 ~-~-> 00:10:11 |time, sent it higher. This is classic, classic, classic price action. Anyone
105 |104 |00:10:11 ~-~-> 00:10:16 |that was selling short here, they get removed. They're no longer in the game.
106 |105 |00:10:17 ~-~-> 00:10:21 |When you have a old high taken out like this, and it drops down. That is called
107 |106 |00:10:21 ~-~-> 00:10:25 |priming. And what that does is it gets traders thinking that the market's
108 |107 |00:10:25 ~-~-> 00:10:32 |created a long term high or a altogether reversal, and lots of interest starts to
109 |108 |00:10:32 ~-~-> 00:10:36 |pour into that marketplace. Retail will be selling it down here in these lows
110 |109 |00:10:36 ~-~-> 00:10:41 |and place stop losses up here, if they place a stop loss at all, the market
111 |110 |00:10:41 ~-~-> 00:10:46 |runs higher, taking those traders out, but that run right there, is
112 |111 |00:10:47 ~-~-> 00:10:53 |engineering, the perfect opportunity for shorts or bears to come in at a really
113 |112 |00:10:53 ~-~-> 00:10:59 |good price, above an old high. Now, I know some of you expect to see this
114 |113 |00:11:00 ~-~-> 00:11:07 |Bitcoin and such go to 100,000 this year or in the soon to come in months. I'm
115 |114 |00:11:07 ~-~-> 00:11:12 |not of that opinion right now. Okay, I don't, I don't see that now. It's
116 |115 |00:11:12 ~-~-> 00:11:19 |because I don't have any experience with it, and we're at all time highs. I think
117 |116 |00:11:19 ~-~-> 00:11:22 |it's just wishful thinking. You know, some people out there say it's going to
118 |117 |00:11:22 ~-~-> 00:11:25 |go to a million. To a million. Who knows? I don't know. I'm not claiming to
119 |118 |00:11:25 ~-~-> 00:11:28 |know that. I'm just being honest and saying I don't personally subscribe to
120 |119 |00:11:28 ~-~-> 00:11:35 |that now, because it took out this high here and it broke down back below this
121 |120 |00:11:35 ~-~-> 00:11:43 |old high here, this little bit of a rally in there that return up in above
122 |121 |00:11:43 ~-~-> 00:11:49 |the old high. I expect to see that as a failure. And with this high here we're
123 |122 |00:11:49 ~-~-> 00:11:55 |going to go into the lower time frame hourly chart. And here we have again,
124 |123 |00:11:55 ~-~-> 00:12:01 |high, low, higher, high, and this is the hourly chart, but it's a little bit
125 |124 |00:12:01 ~-~-> 00:12:07 |more, I guess details added to it, not by much, but the original chart I
126 |125 |00:12:07 ~-~-> 00:12:10 |shared, which was the first slide in this presentation, didn't have all these
127 |126 |00:12:10 ~-~-> 00:12:16 |little lipstick markers here, but that is a breaker the down close. Can they'll
128 |127 |00:12:16 ~-~-> 00:12:20 |extend it out in time, if the market trades back up into it, that should
129 |128 |00:12:21 ~-~-> 00:12:26 |induce short selling. Short selling comes in the marketplace, and then we
130 |129 |00:12:26 ~-~-> 00:12:34 |have the same pattern here formed here we have a high, a low, higher, high. So
131 |130 |00:12:34 ~-~-> 00:12:40 |this is a bearish breaker also. Now I want you to think about what you see
132 |131 |00:12:40 ~-~-> 00:12:46 |here that wasn't in that original post on my community tab, this low, right
133 |132 |00:12:46 ~-~-> 00:12:51 |here. So we have a low, another low, and I teach this as a relative equal low,
134 |133 |00:12:51 ~-~-> 00:12:55 |lots of liquidity in the form of cell stops would be resting below here, which
135 |134 |00:12:55 ~-~-> 00:13:00 |is what I teach is sell side liquidity. That's going to be a draw on liquidity.
136 |135 |00:13:00 ~-~-> 00:13:06 |That means, think of it like a magnet. And all of these candles are like paper
137 |136 |00:13:06 ~-~-> 00:13:10 |clips, and they're just being released and dropped. Where are they going to go
138 |137 |00:13:10 ~-~-> 00:13:15 |to? Where's the magnet below this level here, I'm anchoring your focus below
139 |138 |00:13:15 ~-~-> 00:13:20 |these lows, but it's over here, where it trades to basically run right down into
140 |139 |00:13:20 ~-~-> 00:13:25 |that so much like a paperclip would jump and cling to where the magnet is. The
141 |140 |00:13:25 ~-~-> 00:13:29 |same phenomenons happen here. So I've teach that principles my students in the
142 |141 |00:13:29 ~-~-> 00:13:35 |form of a draw on liquidity means price is going to make its way to a specific
143 |142 |00:13:35 ~-~-> 00:13:42 |level for the purpose of going into these orders that reside over here. So
144 |143 |00:13:42 ~-~-> 00:13:47 |think about the the framework here. We have a market that created a high here
145 |144 |00:13:47 ~-~-> 00:13:53 |and broke down. Someone sold short up here, the ideal scenario for them to be
146 |145 |00:13:54 ~-~-> 00:14:01 |a seller here and get out below here, where there's resting cell stops or an
147 |146 |00:14:01 ~-~-> 00:14:06 |interest to be a buyer, because it did what, it bounced here. It bounced here.
148 |147 |00:14:06 ~-~-> 00:14:12 |So retail logic is it's going to do that down here again support, right? So if
149 |148 |00:14:12 ~-~-> 00:14:16 |that market trades that level, and traders come in thinking with retail
150 |149 |00:14:16 ~-~-> 00:14:20 |logic, they want to be a buyer, right? So how are they going to protect their
151 |150 |00:14:20 ~-~-> 00:14:25 |position? They're going to put a stop loss in the form of a cell stop on their
152 |151 |00:14:25 ~-~-> 00:14:28 |long position. They intend to take when it trades back down these old lows,
153 |152 |00:14:28 ~-~-> 00:14:35 |because they trust every book out there that says this is support. And when it
154 |153 |00:14:35 ~-~-> 00:14:40 |trades down there, they enter longs and they put cell stops below these lows
155 |154 |00:14:40 ~-~-> 00:14:43 |over here, thinking it's going to protect them, and they get wiped out
156 |155 |00:14:43 ~-~-> 00:14:51 |immediately. So that's the general idea of what I was framing that post on. But
157 |156 |00:14:51 ~-~-> 00:14:56 |in this area, in here, you can go in even deeper. This candle was the candle
158 |157 |00:14:56 ~-~-> 00:15:01 |the last one formed when I posted this chart. The. The very first slide in this
159 |158 |00:15:01 ~-~-> 00:15:05 |presentation, I want you to go into this area, which is this breaker here. We're
160 |159 |00:15:05 ~-~-> 00:15:10 |gonna look at an optimal trade entry there. So here's a 15 minute time frame
161 |160 |00:15:10 ~-~-> 00:15:18 |inside that bearish breaker. And we have optimal trade entry there, and we also
162 |161 |00:15:18 ~-~-> 00:15:24 |have one here, and then we have a bearish order block there, and then we
163 |162 |00:15:24 ~-~-> 00:15:28 |have that run down into that liquidity. So there's a few other trades in this,
164 |163 |00:15:28 ~-~-> 00:15:32 |if you're familiar with my concepts on the YouTube channel, and mentorship, but
165 |164 |00:15:32 ~-~-> 00:15:39 |nonetheless, I gave up extensive lecture to my students in mentorship over the
166 |165 |00:15:39 ~-~-> 00:15:48 |weekend. The main focus was reminding them that a lot of folks come to me
167 |166 |00:15:48 ~-~-> 00:15:52 |because they watch my examples, and they see where I get in at and they see where
168 |167 |00:15:52 ~-~-> 00:15:57 |my stop loss is, and they see how precise those entries and exits are. And
169 |168 |00:15:57 ~-~-> 00:16:04 |that's the purpose of me doing it is to inspire you and encourage you. But those
170 |169 |00:16:04 ~-~-> 00:16:09 |entry points and those exit points, if you're a new student, whether under me
171 |170 |00:16:09 ~-~-> 00:16:15 |or anyone else, your number one goal should be understanding where the market
172 |171 |00:16:15 ~-~-> 00:16:19 |should be going to Okay, which is what I teach, is withdrawal and liquidity. So
173 |172 |00:16:19 ~-~-> 00:16:23 |that draw on liquidity is, where's the market going, and why should it get
174 |173 |00:16:23 ~-~-> 00:16:31 |there? Those are the two questions that every trader should wrestle with every
175 |174 |00:16:31 ~-~-> 00:16:34 |time they sit down in front of their charts. If you can't come to the
176 |175 |00:16:34 ~-~-> 00:16:39 |conclusion as to why it should do those two things go to a particular level and
177 |176 |00:16:39 ~-~-> 00:16:43 |why it should get there. And what do I mean by that? What I just explained in
178 |177 |00:16:43 ~-~-> 00:16:48 |terms of who's in control of marketplace right now and who's profiting, where
179 |178 |00:16:48 ~-~-> 00:16:53 |would the ideal exit point be? Okay, so where is it going? Where's it likely
180 |179 |00:16:53 ~-~-> 00:17:01 |reaching for an old low, old high, and what directional bias, does that
181 |180 |00:17:01 ~-~-> 00:17:06 |support? So by having those two questions answered, it gives you a
182 |181 |00:17:07 ~-~-> 00:17:12 |framework in which to work with a bias. I'm not trying to go long in something
183 |182 |00:17:12 ~-~-> 00:17:17 |like this. I would never try to buy this market, because the underpinnings and
184 |183 |00:17:17 ~-~-> 00:17:22 |the existing market structure at that time here was exceedingly bearish. So if
185 |184 |00:17:22 ~-~-> 00:17:28 |it's bearish, I filter out any idea of looking for a long and I focus primarily
186 |185 |00:17:28 ~-~-> 00:17:34 |on what would constitute a low risk cell using optimal trade entry and bearish
187 |186 |00:17:34 ~-~-> 00:17:38 |order blocks, which is taught freely on this YouTube channel. There's the setups
188 |187 |00:17:38 ~-~-> 00:17:45 |in here that would have offered that. But if you go into training and studying
189 |188 |00:17:45 ~-~-> 00:17:50 |my YouTube channel and you're just trying to find the entry techniques,
190 |189 |00:17:50 ~-~-> 00:17:53 |because it seems like that's the secret, that's the secret sauce, is where to get
191 |190 |00:17:53 ~-~-> 00:17:58 |in with ultra small stops, and that's the precision. That's the precision
192 |191 |00:17:58 ~-~-> 00:18:02 |this. You don't need to have precision if you understand the element of the
193 |192 |00:18:02 ~-~-> 00:18:08 |draw on liquidity, because it gives you multiple points of entry, and you need
194 |193 |00:18:08 ~-~-> 00:18:15 |to disconnect yourself from trying to have the maximum profit with the least
195 |194 |00:18:15 ~-~-> 00:18:18 |amount of risk in the beginning, and where it feels counterintuitive in the
196 |195 |00:18:18 ~-~-> 00:18:21 |beginning, because that's what you think you're going To be learning as a trader,
197 |196 |00:18:21 ~-~-> 00:18:29 |not just playing a student of my content, but anyone they like the idea
198 |197 |00:18:29 ~-~-> 00:18:34 |of getting in with a little bit and coming out with a lot and not having any
199 |198 |00:18:34 ~-~-> 00:18:41 |adverse drawdown. And that's unrealistic as a trader when you first start. So the
200 |199 |00:18:41 ~-~-> 00:18:45 |way I teach my students to overcome that and to focus on what is the most
201 |200 |00:18:45 ~-~-> 00:18:52 |significant and salient point at the very beginning of their career and
202 |201 |00:18:52 ~-~-> 00:18:57 |development is to understand where that market is likely to go in a higher time
203 |202 |00:18:57 ~-~-> 00:19:03 |frame. So if a higher Time Frame drawing liquidity is easily seen and framed out.
204 |203 |00:19:03 ~-~-> 00:19:12 |Well, let's take it back up to that original slide here, if it's trading
205 |204 |00:19:12 ~-~-> 00:19:18 |here, the backdrop behind all that is we already have market trading off of what
206 |205 |00:19:18 ~-~-> 00:19:21 |I teach is something there, which is a breaker over here, and we already had
207 |206 |00:19:21 ~-~-> 00:19:27 |stops ran here, and we had stops ran here, and then one more time here. So
208 |207 |00:19:27 ~-~-> 00:19:34 |it's primed to go lower. It's already taken several stages of buy stops out of
209 |208 |00:19:34 ~-~-> 00:19:39 |the marketplace. So where does the market likely go to after it takes buy
210 |209 |00:19:39 ~-~-> 00:19:45 |stops, sell stops, where they reside. Well, we're here now, so we've taken out
211 |210 |00:19:45 ~-~-> 00:19:52 |that low. So you have to now think of that low, that low and below the lows
212 |211 |00:19:52 ~-~-> 00:19:52 |over here.
213 |212 |00:19:54 ~-~-> 00:20:00 |But because it's on a higher time frame, and this is the largest run up you. This
214 |213 |00:20:00 ~-~-> 00:20:04 |is where the largest pool of liquidity for sell stops resides. So it's the
215 |214 |00:20:04 ~-~-> 00:20:10 |honey pot, basically, of the smart money that entered here, if we're to assume
216 |215 |00:20:10 ~-~-> 00:20:14 |that is the case, if they sold short here, if the things I teach are in
217 |216 |00:20:15 ~-~-> 00:20:20 |operation in these asset classes, or crypto specifically, then it should go
218 |217 |00:20:20 ~-~-> 00:20:27 |right down there, and then you see that does so handsomely. So I don't want to
219 |218 |00:20:27 ~-~-> 00:20:30 |give you too much more than what I've already given you here. It may be an
220 |219 |00:20:30 ~-~-> 00:20:34 |oversimplification for some of you. Oh, I knew that. You know, that's great.
221 |220 |00:20:34 ~-~-> 00:20:38 |That means you've learned and you're developing. But a lot of you have just
222 |221 |00:20:38 ~-~-> 00:20:41 |recently found the channel, and maybe this is the first time you were
223 |222 |00:20:41 ~-~-> 00:20:48 |introduced this idea. But if you were in a seminar held by me, and it will be the
224 |223 |00:20:48 ~-~-> 00:20:53 |very first day, the first thing I'm going to teach or talk on is this topic,
225 |224 |00:20:53 ~-~-> 00:20:56 |because this is paramount in the beginning, because everything else is
226 |225 |00:20:56 ~-~-> 00:21:02 |just going to get you in trouble. How much leverage to use? How big of a stop
227 |226 |00:21:02 ~-~-> 00:21:06 |loss? Where to put a stop loss? Where to get in at? Those are the questions that
228 |227 |00:21:06 ~-~-> 00:21:10 |every single trader wants to know right when they first start learning how to
229 |228 |00:21:10 ~-~-> 00:21:15 |trade, because why they're in a hurry to go lose money. That's what they're in a
230 |229 |00:21:15 ~-~-> 00:21:17 |hurry to do. They don't think they're gonna lose any money. They think they're
231 |230 |00:21:17 ~-~-> 00:21:23 |gonna win the lottery. But I tried to be responsible as the mentor and prevent
232 |231 |00:21:23 ~-~-> 00:21:28 |that from happening, and also give them every advantage to learning, which is
233 |232 |00:21:28 ~-~-> 00:21:31 |putting them in the right mindset, looking for the things that are most
234 |233 |00:21:31 ~-~-> 00:21:37 |important, which is, where is the market going and why should it get there? What
235 |234 |00:21:37 ~-~-> 00:21:41 |that does is it unlocks bias, takes your attention to one side or the other in
236 |235 |00:21:41 ~-~-> 00:21:46 |terms of, are you going to be a buyer or a seller? Are you a bull or a bear? If
237 |236 |00:21:46 ~-~-> 00:21:51 |you are bearish on the marketplace, it gives you context to look at the
238 |237 |00:21:51 ~-~-> 00:21:57 |marketplace with, okay, overnight, there should be a high forming between two
239 |238 |00:21:57 ~-~-> 00:22:02 |o'clock and four o'clock in the morning. That's your london session. And if it's
240 |239 |00:22:02 ~-~-> 00:22:06 |bearish, maybe New York will create a continuation after a small retracement,
241 |240 |00:22:07 ~-~-> 00:22:11 |post 7am New York time. Okay, and reverse that. If you're bullish, if
242 |241 |00:22:11 ~-~-> 00:22:15 |you're bullish, you're expecting a low to form on the daily range between two
243 |242 |00:22:15 ~-~-> 00:22:19 |o'clock and four o'clock in the morning during the London session. And after a
244 |243 |00:22:19 ~-~-> 00:22:25 |retracement, you know, lower after seven o'clock in the morning. That may give
245 |244 |00:22:25 ~-~-> 00:22:32 |you a New York session continuation while being bullish. So the question of
246 |245 |00:22:32 ~-~-> 00:22:37 |bias, when do I, you know, hold a bias that's bullish? When do I hold a bearish
247 |246 |00:22:37 ~-~-> 00:22:41 |bias? That is answered by looking at higher Time Frame charts and
248 |247 |00:22:41 ~-~-> 00:22:47 |understanding where it should be drawing to, but also keeping in mind that even
249 |248 |00:22:47 ~-~-> 00:22:50 |though you may have a bearish or bullish bias, doesn't necessarily mean that
250 |249 |00:22:50 ~-~-> 00:22:53 |every single daily candle is going to be an up candle, because your book, your
251 |250 |00:22:53 ~-~-> 00:22:58 |bias is bullish. That's that doesn't work either. So there's a lot of things
252 |251 |00:22:58 ~-~-> 00:23:00 |that go along with building any understanding of daily bias and
253 |252 |00:23:00 ~-~-> 00:23:07 |understanding what you should be doing as a buyer or seller, but it isn't going
254 |253 |00:23:07 ~-~-> 00:23:11 |to ever be answered until you understand this theory, which is, where is the
255 |254 |00:23:11 ~-~-> 00:23:15 |market likely to go, and why should it get there? When I say, why should it get
256 |255 |00:23:15 ~-~-> 00:23:20 |there? That's underlying narrative. Narrative would be smart money sold up
257 |256 |00:23:20 ~-~-> 00:23:25 |here. Stops were taken. It moved quickly away. This is a breaker traded up there,
258 |257 |00:23:25 ~-~-> 00:23:29 |and then it started breaking down aggressively. So it's giving you
259 |258 |00:23:29 ~-~-> 00:23:36 |confirmation that sellers are on the profitable side. So where do they stand
260 |259 |00:23:36 ~-~-> 00:23:40 |to make the most money? The honey pot exit would be down here. That's Candy
261 |260 |00:23:40 ~-~-> 00:23:43 |Land. That's Candy Land. That's where, that's where they want to get to, and
262 |261 |00:23:43 ~-~-> 00:23:47 |they got to submit to holding on to they're short until we get down in
263 |262 |00:23:47 ~-~-> 00:23:51 |there, because once the market trades there, that activates every single one
264 |263 |00:23:51 ~-~-> 00:23:55 |of the sell stops that reside here or will be implemented when the market
265 |264 |00:23:55 ~-~-> 00:23:59 |trades here, and Support Resistance traders come in, and they add more
266 |265 |00:23:59 ~-~-> 00:24:06 |liquidity underneath these lows. So that sell side liquidity in the form of a
267 |266 |00:24:06 ~-~-> 00:24:13 |pool of cell stops, is the perfect counter party to buyers that want to buy
268 |267 |00:24:13 ~-~-> 00:24:16 |back their short that they sold up here because they entered up here, so they
269 |268 |00:24:16 ~-~-> 00:24:20 |sold short. How do you get out of short? You have to buy it back. What's the best
270 |269 |00:24:20 ~-~-> 00:24:24 |scenario to buy it below old lows, and there's willing sellers down here
271 |270 |00:24:24 ~-~-> 00:24:29 |waiting, and then the market trades aggressively and quickly down into that
272 |271 |00:24:29 ~-~-> 00:24:35 |area of liquidity. So I covered basics and introduction to understanding how to
273 |272 |00:24:36 ~-~-> 00:24:41 |build a bias model, how to be a buyer seller, and know how to operate in that,
274 |273 |00:24:42 ~-~-> 00:24:46 |and focus on where the drawing liquidity is, because that's going to help you do
275 |274 |00:24:46 ~-~-> 00:24:50 |that, and then understand the narrative, okay? And I understand that. That
276 |275 |00:24:50 ~-~-> 00:24:56 |probably didn't do it for all of you, but when you look at old data and price
277 |276 |00:24:56 ~-~-> 00:25:00 |moves, and you do your back testing, it's important for you to go in. And try
278 |277 |00:25:00 ~-~-> 00:25:04 |to work out narratives that would have been underway. You may not have
279 |278 |00:25:04 ~-~-> 00:25:09 |understood it or expected it at the time, but use the benefit of hindsight,
280 |279 |00:25:09 ~-~-> 00:25:13 |because that's how I learned. You know, I practiced and practiced and studied
281 |280 |00:25:13 ~-~-> 00:25:20 |old moves. And because of repetition and seeing it so many times, you'll see
282 |281 |00:25:20 ~-~-> 00:25:25 |these things form live, and it's, oh, I expect this, and I expect that, and you
283 |282 |00:25:25 ~-~-> 00:25:29 |won't be perfect. I'm not perfect, but you'll see that. You'll grow in your
284 |283 |00:25:29 ~-~-> 00:25:33 |understanding and your prognostication will improve over time, and you can't
285 |284 |00:25:33 ~-~-> 00:25:37 |rush that either. So hopefully you found this one insightful. Until I'll talk to
286 |285 |00:25:37 ~-~-> 00:25:39 |you next time. Be safe. You.
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