ICT YT - 2021-01-13 - ICT Price Action Lesson - Major Moves With Seasonal Tendencies.srt
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ICT: Alright, folks, welcome back. This is a new year and some new discussions,
we're going to talk about major moves with seasonal tendencies. Now I'm going to
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talk about specifically, commodities in this lecture. Now, it's important to
know that if some of you are hardline crypto traders, or Forex traders, there
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are seasonal tendencies. In forex, there are seasonal tendencies in the dollar
index their seasonal tendencies in stocks. So try not to read so much into this
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lesson. And think of it as only applying to the markets I'm going to refer to in
its delivery. Okay, so understanding understand a seasonal tendency is a
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roadmap, it's a generalization of what has happened in the past. And if there is
some measure of repeating phenomenon, okay, in other words, if we think that the
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market is going to go up at a particular time of the year, to a specific time of
the year, and we measure it over the last five years, over the last 10 years,
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the last 15 years, the last 20 and 25 years, there are services out there. And
I'll turn you on to one in this teaching, that I have a lot of faith in myself
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personally. But it's important to note that I'm not saying this is going to be
the case, every single time you look at the marketplace, there are some certain
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caveats that have to be considered. And I'll briefly discuss those as we go
along. But I'm going to try to keep this video short. Because I know some of you
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have very short attention spans when it comes to my lectures, because if I'm
talking too much, I'm just trying to give you an extra value and insights that
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you would otherwise have to pay for elsewhere. So let's take a look at $1 index
chart to begin with. Alright, so we're looking at the Dollar Index, and I'm
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using tradingview.com. Right, so you can find this information yourself, you can
go pull up your own version of this chart and take a look at the things I'm
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referring to hear. And it should be on par with what I'm showing in my charts.
Now I'm going to refrain from showing any kind of real annotations until we get
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to the very specific market, I want to talk about, but I'm going to talk about a
few of them, and review some of the potential opportunities that make themselves
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available each year in these markets. So I've always begin my analysis with the
dollar index. Okay. And the reason why I do that is because I want to know, if
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we are on a risk on or risk off environment now risk on would be where the
market has the dollar index going lower, as we see here around July of 2020. To
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present and that would allow or permit the likelihood of markets to rally or go
higher, and that being like foreign currency against the dollar, and also
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commodities. Because if the dollar is going lower, that is more or less
inflationary for commodity prices, so they're going to see a an appreciation in
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the cost of producing and or purchasing commodities. So if we can just simply
understand that going forward, everything in this teaching will be very easy to
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follow along. If you're someone that's new to my channel or new to commodities
or trading in general, you're probably going to want to watch other video series
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on this YouTube channel. It'll help fill in some of the gaps I'm certain that
you have watching this. If the dollar index is going higher, that's going to be
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deflationary for commodity prices and also for foreign currencies. They're going
to go lower in relationship to the higher prices in dollar. Now, if we have that
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risk on risk off scenario in mind, when dollars going lower, that's risk on when
dollars going higher. That's risk off. If we have this period of time when the
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market is clearly indicating that the dollar wants to go lower, that means we
are on the watch For big moves on the upside, okay, really big moves. One such
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big move this year was the soybean market. And I've been very vocal about that
my students know about that. And I've also tipped the community off in my
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YouTube channel. And if you look at that, over here, I have a bunch of things
that I've shared publicly here. Now, when I look at this,
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I can see that it doesn't really give me a specific date. And I'm actually
learning something as I do this video with you right now. I'm going to include
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the actual date that I post it, okay, so I wish it would have given me a
specific date. But nonetheless, it is what it is the the thumbs up that's
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highlighted here, just so you guys know, I like to post the comment, and then I
wait for the first thumbs up. And I'm usually the second thumbs up, because it's
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my way of checking to make sure that it's viewable on your end, because I've had
members in the past, say I can't see my posts or the posts I make to the
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community tab. They don't they they're saying they didn't see or they did say
they couldn't see it. So I usually wait for someone to do a thumbs up. That
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means it's visible when you're in as the audience and then I'm typically the
second thumbs up. So it's not me being conceited or loving myself, it's just a
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way for me to know that. Okay, that post has been seen, it's public now. And I
can leave YouTube and go about my business somewhere else. But if you look at
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about a month ago, I mentioned that if you take a look at the grain reports,
soybeans, as I stated, since June of 2020, was poised to continue to rally in
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the 2021. And I stayed here. Corn will be next. Now notice there's no edit here,
like you see here to edit. It means that when I change a typo or something like
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that, here, I'm telling you, specifically a month ago that corn is going to be
the next big rally. Okay, it's going to go up. Why? Well, if you look at here,
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I'm telling you that China's buying everything again. And I gave you the reasons
I'm not going to read it, you can see it here. But I also talked about Bitcoin,
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and I called 20,000, before Christmas. And when I was on Twitter, which I'm not
now I also posted in July of 2020, I stated that I felt that we would see
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Bitcoin 30,000 by the end of the year going into 2021 I was off by one day. So
sorry. The next level I called for Bitcoin and I'll let you scroll through, you
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can find this on your own. I called 40,000 and went to like 42,000 something,
and then it has recently had some difficulties. So I'm making calls here
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publicly because I've had people in the past, make some derogatory comments
about how I don't really put my neck out on the line say, this is what I think
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is going to happen. And I used to do that a lot on Twitter, but I don't have
Twitter anymore. So this has replaced my Twitter. And you can follow along and
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see what I'm suggesting in my expectation now don't do everything. But I toss
out once in a while something for you guys to study. And we're gonna take a look
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at the corn market here in relationship to the soybean market. And we're going
to use that dollar bearishness from July as a context to anticipating higher
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prices on every market I'm going to cover in this teaching. So let's move on
over to soybeans first. Alright, so here's the soybean market. And in June of
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this past year, I was warming all my students up to the idea that we were going
to eventually make a run above these highs here. And that we will have a pretty
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big bull market going into the commodity market because of the dollar index
being bearish. Now, some of you that are in my mentorship are getting really
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nervous right now because you're thinking I'm teaching mentorship, when all I'm
dealing is talking about what you've experienced before it happened. So please
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don't send me emails, okay. And they some of you are highly protected, and I
love you all for that. But I want to kind of teach something broad brush, and
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I'm really not doing harm to what you are participating in. So just give me the
Liberty here to be able to be a teacher outside of mentorship to because it's
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why this channel exists. The there is no mentorship joining now, by the way, so
we have closed the doors. Do not send the emails. And it is what it is. This is
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not a sales pitch. It's not meant for you to Hey, come in and join learn how to
do this. Everyone that's already emailed me if you've email me, and we haven't
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gotten to yet, that's fine. We'll get to you and we'll consider you but anyone
new. We're not taking anybody else in so It's too many people, it is what it is.
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And we're done. But if you look at what has transpired since June of last year,
we've had this extremely handsome price run on soybeans. So if you
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were to use the will say $8.80 a bushel, okay, right in here, you're not getting
the best entry here, not getting the best entry here. But from 880, up to 1080,
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that's $10,000 per contract. Okay, that's $20,000 if it goes to 1280. Now, if it
goes to 1480, that's another $10,000. How many Bitcoin moves? Have you seen in
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your lifetime as a crypto trader, the one we just recently seen, and the big run
up in 2017, right? I called 2017. And I called the top, then I mentioned many
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times that your new traders that got exposed to crypto feels like that's the
only market that traders could have gotten wealthy on. And I kind of taught this
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back in 2017, and 2018, and 2019. Every time I get a new student that the first
question comes to mind is, you know, do you regret missing Bitcoin, because I've
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been very public and state that I don't trade crypto, I didn't trade Bitcoin.
But whenever I make my calls public, obviously, it comes with a great deal of
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kickback if it if it opposes the view of a certain group of my audience members.
I don't do this to upset anyone purposely. But you know, I get more requests for
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me sharing what I think is going to happen, then people coming back and saying,
I really wish you wouldn't have said that. So I try to be as open as I possibly
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can and tell you what I think is going to happen, where I think it's going to go
and for the most part, why I think it's going to go there. And every call that
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I've made publicly, you're welcome to look at and weigh in the balances. But
these are big moves that take place in the commodity market. And you don't need
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a Bitcoin move to define wealth, because what you see here can be the same
thing, if not more than what you saw in Bitcoin. This past, what, seven months,
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or six or seven months to the same amount of money that one could have made in
that Bitcoin run, you could do in this right here. And I stated this very
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market, when I was making the case and argument with the crypto traders that
were saying, I should be regretting not being a part of the largest bull market
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in history. Well, there's always a big bull market, there's always a big mega
trade. Okay, every year, the markets create them. And I tried to state this
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before that I have tools that help me ferret those out. And one of the things
that I look for is a seasonal tendency, if a seasonal tendency indicates that
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the markets likely to go up by itself doesn't mean anything. But if we can find
a time when the market is bullish, and a seasonal tendency, is suggesting that
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historically, it usually goes up, then we have something to work with. And then
it's a matter of just waiting for market structure to get in sync with those two
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underlying premise if the market is bullish, and the market is showing a bullish
seasonal tendency, we wait for the market to give us a bullish market structure.
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So we have multiple things in here. And I've talked about soybeans before. So
I'm not going to try to redo that here and waste time. But we we see markets,
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making runs like this a lot in hindsight, but it's all together something
different when you're able to see it, outline it before it happens and call it
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with you know a large degree of depreciation on the upside. So we're seeing huge
amount of potential price run that would otherwise be either ignored or not
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expected. There's a lot of people on YouTube that are claiming they got the
signals that work they got the calls that make the money they got this and they
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got that and they're pointing to these tiny little add fluctuations in the
marketplace. Tiny little fluctuations. And I outlined for free gave it to you on
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a silver platter. 30,000 points in Bitcoin publicly given to you. If you look at
the soybean market, I showed you that one as well. And a month ago, I tipped you
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off with corn. So let's take a look at corn. All right, I'm going to go to corn.
And we'll use the nearby contract, which is March 2021.
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Okay, so here you go a month ago, right? There, okay, corn. Going to go higher,
it's gonna be the next big move. That's in the community tab on my YouTube
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channel. unedited. Okay, I got a lot of flack from people saying that I've used
rented servers, that I've done fraud, that I cheat people, I lie to people, I
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give them a false impression that I can trade. And nobody's ever seen me call
markets before it happens. And it's just, that still finds its way in
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discussions in certain corners on the internet. And I have been giving you
million dollar maker moves. Okay, I'm giving you the big moves. Because I can,
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I'm sharing them publicly, I'm not selling them, I'm not making you come into my
mentorship to get them. I'm giving you for free, because I can afford to do
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that. I don't need to have people pay me for signals. I'm interested in teaching
you how to find these things. And honestly, everything on this YouTube channel
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shows you how to find these moves. But you don't want to listen to the
discussions and the lecture points that are boring. And it's one thing that you
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see people go out and take my content. And just give me some latitude here. I'm
going to make this point. A lot of people out here taking my stuff and making
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YouTube videos about it. Because times are tough right now. And they want to try
to get a group get over 1000 subscribers since they start making some ad
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revenue, because they need to hustle because either lost their job or they're
paranoid because everything's going on this year and past year rather. And they
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need to make money. I understand that. Okay. But when you are trying to teach
something that you don't know, you're doing more harm to the audience. And if
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you think you know what I can do, and what I teach, then you should be able to
pull out these market moves before they happen to not talk about them in
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hindsight. That's the difference between me. Everybody says, oh, ICT is a
scalper he's an intraday trader. He's mister 10 pips 20 pips? No, but I can do
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more with that type of trading than anybody else that's trading these larger big
position trade swings, because I can parlay that up and have velocity behind the
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equity. But you don't need to trade a lot. If you listen to what I teach, you
can sit back and be very passive and investment and capture these big moves,
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we're going to assume that you were in here around the $4.20 a bushel and above
today $5.20 a bushel, that is a $5,000 price move per contract. Now, it took a
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month to get it. But if you would have had say, I don't know 10 call options,
you wouldn't have had the Full Exposure required for margin to do the trade, you
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could have done some call options. And whatever you paid for the option that
would be the amount of risk total plus commission that you would have looked at
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as incurred risk. five grand for a month. Some of you probably don't make that
in a month. I know when I was working as a younger man. I wasn't making that
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much money. Now we're talking about back in the 80s. But 1980s it's it sounds
funny to say it like that. And I'm laughing because I think about how my son was
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asking me earlier before I made this video. He asked me he just said what cool
cars were there back in the 1900s. And he to hear him say it that way made it
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sound like I'm even older than I really am. The the idea of looking for these
types of price moves and seeing how much is available on one position. Okay, if
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you can find trades like this, and it can present moves like this or like what I
showed in the soybean market.
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Those types of moves if you can find them and ferret them out over time, they
can make you wealthy. Now the problem is this. Like it was for me when I first
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started in 1992. I read a book Ken Roberts His commodity course. And you all
probably heard us enough, I'm not going to beat it up even more. But I felt that
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I was going to be one of those success stories. And I was going to make a
fortune in my first year. And I was going to do everything the book said, and my
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first trade of lost 50% of the account, I've made no bones about it, it is what
it is. And even my students that first come to my YouTube channel, or they
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traded other markets, and they've tasted pain and loss, because they don't
really know what they're doing, then you see what I do in these videos, and it
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opens their eyes to what they did not know. And they can go into the old data
and say, Wow, I can really see this is making perfect sense. That's the
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difference between understanding what the markets really do versus what the
markets did, and then write a book about it, you know that it doesn't work. It
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doesn't help, okay, if all these books were able to help people make money, then
they wouldn't need to make more books. The people that made books 100 years ago,
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would have been enough, there would be no reason to make another book. So it's
this trap that you all follow. And I did it to trust me, I did it. I wasted a
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fortune on buying books and courses when I first started. And honestly, none of
that crap worked. None of it, it caused me to lose more and feel even more
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insecure about myself. And it, it was like an endless circle of always learning
but never coming to the truth. When I got exposed to how the markets really
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book, it changed everything. And I went back in and turned everything else
upside down, and it started working. These ideas here, I'm just gonna make it
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very easy for you. If you go to Amazon, and you buy the book, how I made a
million dollars trading commodities last year by Larry Williams. Okay. Let's go
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over to Amazon, and I'll show you what that looks like. Alright, so here's the
book I'm talking about. And you've heard me mentioned this before. So this is
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where you can go and get it. Notice that I'm not giving you a link, I'm not
doing an affiliate program, I'm not trying to get paid for you making a
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purchase. I'm just freely giving you the information. If you don't want to buy
the book, then don't buy the book. But this book was one of the first books that
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I bought that made sense and made me money. So the things I like about this
book, and let's see if I can pull it up here a table of contents, this chapter
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here, chapter four, where he says my million dollar fundamental system. And
going into this area here, he basically covers all of the most important things
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that make commodity markets move on a large scale. Okay. So all of these things
in your chapter four, that to me, is
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the real shining chapter in it doesn't mean that there's other parts in this
book that isn't interesting or noteworthy. But there are things like he talks
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about the phases of the moon, and the influence of buying and selling on that I
don't subscribe to any of that. But I'm not here to beat him up because he was
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my first mentor. So at night, not trying to say that Ken Roberts wasn't a
mentor, because he was a mentor, because that was the very first book I read.
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But it lost money. Everything I did with it was completely abandon everything I
learned from him. And the next mentor I had was Larry Williams. And this book
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was highly influential. Now, if you go through this book, you will see the
effects and the impression that Larry had on me. And you can also see I amped
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up, especially if you're in the mentorship level stuff. Again, I hate to say it
that way, because it sounds like I'm dying. I don't want anyone asking to join
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because I'm not taking anyone new. I have to keep putting that in there. I'm
sorry. But if the students that, like we're all in a big room, okay, we were all
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like a live seminar. And I said, Okay, who's here that's in mentorship. Raise
your hand and you'd see whatever number of people would be there to raise their
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hand and say, okay, who has gone through this book I'm talking about here. And
they would raise their hand and I'd say okay, now raise your hand if you seen me
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amplify and fill in a lot of the things for precision based rules. With this
information because this was the foundation I started with. I started with this
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and I built on it and I built on it and built on it and it just Further
solidifies the importance of having a solid foundation. If you're going into
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this with like Elliott Wave, okay, or harmonic patterns, that is a niche, it's a
gimmick. It's a stylized perception. It's not objective. It's not. It's
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subjective. This chapter for that is objective. Okay. And if you read it, you'll
you'll know exactly what I'm referring to what makes it objective, it's rooted
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in real market truths that are either present in the marketplace, or they're
not. It's binary. Whereas if we had a collection of people that traded harmonic
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patterns, or if we had a collection of people that traded Elliott Wave, they
would have a difference of opinion, I'm certain of it, if we were given them the
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same market. And that is, what highlights the, in my mind the lunacy in
following that kind of stuff. And don't get me wrong, I wasted years doing both
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of those things. Okay. I know about both of them. It isn't like I read a book.
And, you know, I never dabbled in it, I did all that stuff. I've done point and
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figure charts. I've done everything. I've done everything out there. And for as
far as trading goes. And honestly, all of it is flawed. Because it doesn't start
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on the basis of having real logic behind it, it's based on a pattern by itself,
they go in and looking for patterns or wave counts, versus understanding what it
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is that sets the market up for a move higher or lower, and where it should draw
to. Now, Larry doesn't do that. But Larry gives you the three primary rules and
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tools that he looks for that sets up these big million dollar maker. Well, I
shouldn't say million dollar maker, but fortune makers. Okay. What's a fortune
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to me, you know, if it makes $50,000, you know, that's a small fortune. You
know, I don't look at $50,000, the same way I did when I was in 1992. But if I
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lost $50,000, I'd, you know, I want it back. You know, it's it's a meaningful
amount of money to me. And to most of you listening, that's probably a
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significant amount of money as well, especially if you're a new student and or
never traded profitably, you would love to have that type of windfall victory in
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trading.
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If you're looking for a book, to give you a real solid foundation to understand
why a market should go up, or go down this chapter right here in this very book,
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I think that you should subscribe to what's been shown in that chapter. I don't
get anything for this. I don't get a kickback. Larry doesn't know I'm even doing
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it. And I mean, I've said this book many times over the last 10 years or 11
years now, talking about things from, you know, books that were influential, or
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books that were worth your time reading this the 1970s book 1970s, I was a child
at the time when this was published, and put in print. And it's still effective
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today. Why? Because it's rooted on things that work. And the man made money with
it, not a little bit of money, he made a million dollars. And then he did it
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again in 1987, for people that doubted and didn't believe he really made money
with it. And he won the World Cup Robbins contest for futures trading in 1987,
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and still holds 11,000% as the highest percentage gain in that contest history.
So if you take this information, and go back into market like this, you'll see a
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lot of those things that he's teaching exists in this market here. Okay. And
before we had this big extrapolated price move here. I told you in my community
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tab on my YouTube channel, right here a month ago, corn will be next. And I gave
you two fundamental reasons why okay. So, when it comes to fundamental data, I
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do consider it when it comes to livestock, like feeder cattle, live cattle, lean
hogs, they're all commodity markets. I look at it in regards to the grain
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reports. Apart from that, I do not consider fundamental data at all. But if I'm
trading agriculture, markets, which are commodity markets, as I just mentioned,
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then I'm going to consider it. And other markets like the food groups like
coffee, cocoa and sugar. If we go into if we look at coffee, this is kind of
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like the, the heart of the teaching here today. If you look at this price
fractal, it is something that I have taught many times with the medium of forex.
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And I'll give you a minute, pause the video before I put the annotations up. But
try to look at what you think you see in this price action. And then when you're
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ready, unpause the video and you'll see my annotations and discussion going
forward. Okay, we're going to add annotations now. Alright, so we're looking at
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coffee, okay, and there is a seasonal tendency for coffee to rally about the
second week or third week of July, I want you to consider the likelihood of mid
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July being a seasonal tendency for coffee to go higher. Now, think about what I
showed you on the dollar index. In July, it was going lower, it created an
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important high and it just fell out of bed went lower. That again sets the stage
for markets to go higher in the commodity market, just like it does in forex. So
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from having a macro perspective, and looking at things seasonally blending those
things together. It gives us framework to find really big moves, you don't have
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to be an intraday trader, you don't have to worry about the power three on a
daily candle. If you don't have time to do that. If you don't have the life
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framework that promotes that type of trading, you don't need to do it. Don't
feel like you have to be an intraday trader, don't feel that you have to be a
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short term trader. If you look at these types of price moves, and you think,
wow, you know, I could be a participant in something like that. That makes
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sense. I don't want to have to be relying on making a decision each day buying
and selling, buying and selling, because that takes a certain type of
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personality that isn't really everyone's cup of tea. Now. I started with this
type of trading, swing trade position trading, I started that way. And it was
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like pulling teeth. I just couldn't endure it. I didn't want to deal with it, it
was too slow. Doesn't mean I can't do it. Technically, it just
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means I can't submit to it from a personality standpoint. But the analysis
concepts that I use, this helps me frame every type of trade that I'm
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comfortable with, which is day trading intraday and short term. That's my forte,
that's where I Excel. And I can find lots of those types of day trades, short
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term trades or swing trades intraday in the overall price model that's being
shown here. Now, what am I actually shown here? Well, if you look at the
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relative equal Highs over here, you know, this is a buy side liquidity pool and
the market will likely want to go back to that point, we also have a
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consolidation that leaves the consolidation comes back up to the consolidation
in here and drops lower. And another level of decline hits a important level 110
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rallies breaks the short term high here. So we have a shift in market structure.
So when the market comes back down into a bullish order block, which is this
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down close candle right there, we have an optimal trade entry. So we're using
the lowest low to the highest high, projecting that up, that gives us two and a
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half standard deviations. And above the buy sell liquidity pool. So that means
about $1.34 per pound for coffee as an upside objective back here in July, mid
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July. When the seasonal tendency for coffee is bullish, the market rallies up it
touches these relative equal highs sells off a little bit goes back into a
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bullish order block here. And we have an optimal trade entry that sends it up
again to a target above the buy sell liquidity pool resting at relative equal
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highs. So if you look at the total range, I'm gonna take this off here. If you
look at the total range from this run here to hear, you can't say that you would
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be a buyer here but you can assume that you're close to this area here not at
this very low at 101. Which is the best case area for a low and the best case
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area for an extra high is the 135 point 65. So inside this range, the best case
which is impossible, would be 34.65 handles, okay or $375 times 34.6, because
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the point value for coffee is $3.75 per point, and every handle, and what's the
handle from like, for instance, 134 to 135. That's one full handle that would be
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represented by $375. That's 100 points, or one handle price move. In this case,
the price moved $12,993.75 per contract. From here, to here. All of this is a
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market maker by model with a seasonal tendency, mid July, with the dollar index,
selling off in July, which we were looking for ourselves as my group was falling
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along. In this type of price move here is what I teach, I teach these types of
moves. I don't say buy here sell there, but I guide you, in every year, I take
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my students back in and say, Okay, this is the seasonal tendency, this is what
we were looking for. This is what he called in dollar index, it sets the tone
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for all these other markets, I point to the markets to have these potential
extrapolated price moves. And we've looked at corn, there's $5,000, we looked at
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soybeans, 20 $30,000. There, we have Bitcoin 30,000 points, I'm not sure what
that will equate to you in terms of dollars. But the these are moves that are
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not small, they're very significant, their major moves. And if your tools can
help you ferret out these types of price action moves every single year, this is
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where the majority of your focus should be. But you will not find them. If
you're just lazy going through the charts looking for any old pattern. For the
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pattern sake, you have to have the logic behind it. So notice what I've combined
here, I've combined a market maker by model, which is what I teach even on this
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YouTube channel for free. Big round number $1 per pound, for coffee, and I'll
let you go out to the higher timeframe charts, you can do that on your own, and
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see what $1 Mark looks like in hindsight. And so you can see a big support level
around there. And also, if you use the KC, let's just do it.
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Okay, see, and then use the front current month, uses my tacy number one
exclamation, you click on that. And you'll see that we have this down close
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candle. Prior to this run up, there's your order block, all it's done, was
worked off of that went right into here and created your optimal trade entry.
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And then in rally, now, you have to use the trading months contract when you're
looking at commodities, whereas this is just a cumulative chart of all of the
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nearby current front month contracts. Right now the current contract month for
coffee is March 2021. prior to March 21, it was December 2020. And then prior to
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that it was September 2020. So these contracts expire in the commodity market.
forex you don't have that issue, okay. But in futures or if you're trading
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commodity markets, you have to be aware of that. So if you're looking at over
here, we don't have those pretty easy to see relative equal highs, like we see
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in the March contract.
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Here, see that. So you have to look at what's available in the price action. But
you all know, the market maker by model, you understand the optimal trade entry,
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because that's the flagship pattern here in this channel. And you understand
order blocks have introduced them publicly here. And we know that a run on
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relatively equal highs is the draw on liquidity. That's a standard procedure
that I've taught very publicly here on this channel. And it's caught fire and
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everybody's talking about it now. That's wonderful. I just wished it the folks
that were doing that would just make a reference and say, hey, look, you know, I
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picked this up from ICT and you'll get more respect for me by doing that. It
doesn't mean go and take everything I have and teach it all over again. But I
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know that this was going to be popular when I gave it out. And it's unfortunate
a lot of people trying to glory hound and take credit for something they didn't
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earn or work for. So these are pretty big moves. And every single year we have
these types of moves. So you don't need one of these types of moves. Okay? I
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mean, people waited around for years for this to occur in here, I call it
6002 20. And then change gears before 20 and said, No, it's not going to go. So
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at 19 seven, it says gonna go to 6000. And then from when we got to 6600 3000,
and failed to be accurate there and went to like 3400, or 32, I can't recall
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exactly where it was. But the point is, is eventually dropped down to something
in here. I'm not sure exactly what the low was. Yeah, 32 something or 3131 22 in
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there. And then we had this little run here in 2019. And everybody thought that
was gonna run about here. I was like, No, I don't think it's gonna happen. And
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we tanked here during the pandemic. And then that extreme, set the stage for the
low. And then from that point, all the way up to where we went to 42 something,
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or is it that 40 42,000? And that was it. And then we fell out of bed. So it
dropped 10,000 points in short order. And here doesn't want to go lower. I don't
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know. To me, it doesn't have a seasonal tendency yet. So it doesn't fit this
discussion. But I'm trying to draw a contrast. And please don't take this as me
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kicking sand in the face of crypto traders. Okay, I'm not doing that I've done
in the past. Like, I'm not, I'm not trying to say I didn't do that in the past,
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because I did. But all I'm trying to remind you is that big market moves did
weren't invented by crypto, okay, there are fortune Making Moves occurring every
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single year for those individuals that know how to find them. And that's why
people like myself, used to have a lot of fun reading people saying that
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everybody else that isn't trading crypto can't catch big, huge windfall price
moves like it created in 2017, and 2019. And now obviously, what we're seeing in
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2020, going into 2021. There's a way to find these big moves. And I gave you the
foundation that I started with. Now, that's not all that I do. I've put a lot of
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structure on top of that foundation, that's unique to me. It's not like off,
okay, it's not supply and demand. It's not all those things that people like to
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say it is because they want to use those those name tags when they're teaching
my content. And you hear him saying order block, you hear him say breaker, these
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are terms I invented, I invented those terms. They're coined by me. So when I
hear them, and if my students hear them right away, you know, you just know that
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this is a derivative of what I have been teaching. And it just it's offensive to
see people do that, and not give credit where it's due. Because you didn't
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endure all the hardships, all the pain, the loss monetarily, family, friends,
everything and sanity in many instances to get this. So hopefully, you can now
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think about how seasonal tendencies and I gave you one in this lesson here.
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Coffee is one that if you go back and look at your data, now here's what's going
to happen, I'm only going to predict this, okay. You're going to hear in certain
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circles, if you are part of one that has the conversation of ICT coming up once
in a while, they're going to go into the charts and they're gonna look for times
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where in July mid July, coffee didn't go up, it's going to go down. Well, you
got to look at what the markets been doing ahead of July. If it's bullish going
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into July, that's your indication that this is a good strong seasonal tendency
for coffee. And there are times where if you look at coffee and some of you're
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like I ain't never trading coffee, why is this guy keep talking about this, this
market? If you look at coffee on a weekly chart, okay, and you can see we've had
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some spikes and such, okay, but you want to study go back as far as the data
will permit it. But looking at all this right here. Is this market bullish or
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bearish? It's obviously bearish. So are you going to be likely to anticipate a
mid July run higher in coffee in this instance, here's the thing it can happen,
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but it's most likely not going to happen. Okay, is that very clear for you? If
the markets bullish, like it's been here, then in July There you go, there's
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July right there is going to run higher then. Now if you look at something
that's bearish, it's fine. July in mid July. Now we get we have a little bit of
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a run, but look how fast it gives up the ghost and goes lower, you see that
there's a difference between knowing what you're talking about and just trying
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to look for something to say it doesn't work. That's what trolls do. That's what
critics do. Here's another area bearish July right here mid July. There. Okay.
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Ahead of that, is it bullish or bearish? It's been going lower. So as a seasonal
tendency, likely to send coffee higher on that year? No. And look what happened.
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It fell out of bed even more. So if you look at a time when we had a break in
market structure here, we have mid July, right there. Right there. It dropped a
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little bit and then dropped again. So it was a break in market structure. But it
has it really made a bullish move. Not yet. It's still in transition in here.
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Same thing, we're going to go to a July. And that's last year. And there you go.
So I'll counsel you to go back and look at all the times when coffee was
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bullish. And when it was bearish. Okay, here's a nice area where it's been
bullish right. July, mid July, right there. Bam. Higher. Now, we had reached a
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level of inherent and I'll let you look at the higher timeframe charts, and
study it, but here's July that year. And it rallies doesn't take up the high but
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that's a nice rally, but then it falls out of bed, because we hit an important
level here. And I'll let you go back and look at what that is historically,
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using a monthly chart. And I'm really doing you a disservice by trying to go
through some of them. I'm just giving you the argument that some of my critics,
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you know, the thumbs down crew, they like to thumbs down the video, the which I
love. I love that because it makes me smile. Who can look at videos like this,
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where I'm literally giving you lottery ticket winning numbers that work over and
over and over again. Okay, for free. I'm doing this for free. There's no sales
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pitch, you can join my mentorship now. I just love doing this. And if you like
these kinds of lessons, and you find it useful to you, or inspiring, you just
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give it a thumbs up. It doesn't cost you anything, just click the thumbs up. And
there it is, it's done. Why do I want that to happen? Because I want this
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channel to be bigger than it is. Because there's a lot of people out here on
YouTube that are misinforming people with things that don't work. And the
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trading community could really use a breath of fresh air. And
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everybody that came into my mentorship, that's it, there's no more sales pitch.
There's no more 2020 to 20 nothing, like I'm done. I'm trying to get all of
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mentorship teaching done. I'm getting all the payment stuff done. And then I'm
going back to being who I was before 2016. In August when I started this
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mentorship doesn't mean I'm not going to continue with my mentorship group and
give them private teachings. Just I don't want to be focusing on I just want to
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go back to doing it relax and have time to do like I'm doing here. If you
couldn't afford the mentorship, just know that I'm still going to present
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lessons here. I'm not going to teach the same level. Obviously for those that
join my mentorship. That would be unfair, and it'd be unreasonable. But there is
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a plethora of wisdom in these videos. And if you've only watched them one time,
you didn't get it all. You have to go through it a few times and take notes and
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then study some charts and then you'll find out that you've seen something that
if you go back and listen to the videos again, it'll mean more to you. And it'll
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feel just like a new video was given to you. And it's the same video I gave you
from the beginning. It's just they're very dense. There's a lot of like this
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video, there's a lot of things and nuggets in it, that if you learn a little bit
more with practice This, you will appreciate the things I've said that would
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otherwise have been glossed over by you by your attention and just not being
dialed in. Because you don't know the importance of the things I'm saying. But
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for those individuals that have been a commodity trader, maybe some of you are
futures traders, and you've traded commodity markets, and maybe you traded
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coffee before, and you never were aware of something like this, this is
something that you can plan and predict months in advance. So when we get to
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July, if the markets been bullish, you can anticipate something like this
unfolding. Now, obviously, it doesn't give you an entry pattern, it doesn't give
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you an exit pattern. It doesn't give you the stop loss. But I'm teaching you a
foundational idea, which is important, you have to have an understanding of why
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a market should even be doing anything at all, just because you think you see
something harmonic, or you think you see something that's an Elliott Wave based
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idea, or even a supply and demand idea doesn't mean anything by itself, just
like an order block by itself means absolutely nothing, you have to have some
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context. And you can't get any better as a context than having a seasonal impact
behind a market move that has happened historically over and over and over
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again. And you can see it, you can visually see it and coupling that when it's
bullish. And there's lots of seasonal tendencies. There's other seasonal
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tendencies for coffee for it to go down specific times of the year. And there's
other times when predisposed to go up to and the same premise, you go into it
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looking for what the market was bullish or bearish going into that specific
seasonal tendency. And by blending that with market structure, and they'll be in
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a risk on or risk off environment that goes back to the dollar index. If you're,
if you're expecting a buy signal in commodities, but you don't see a weaker
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dollar, you're probably looking at a market that isn't gonna pan out for you
doesn't mean it's always like that, it just means that the probability has
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shifted to a very low probability in your favor. versus if you were expecting a
move higher in a commodity market, and the dollar index was bearish. And you can
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see it going lower, then you have a risk on scenario, because dollar is going
lower. And that other market, that would be in a normal perspective, it would be
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an inverse expectation. So dollar lower commodities higher. So there's this
relationship of macro and I talked a little bit about that. And I'll take you to
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the post on my community tab. Now. This is the post I did today. And again,
Today is January 12 2021. And I did a post like this earlier this morning. And I
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talked about the importance of using seasonal tendencies. And it's the the main
thing I think everyone should try to focus on. Because there are specific times
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of the year that you should be focusing on one side of the marketplace, and not
the other, it doesn't mean that you abandon the other side of the marketplace.
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Because what's really interesting, and I'm gonna finalize this video with this
point. If there is a time when the market is seasonally bullish, you can look at
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the seasonal tendency as a way of timing
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the other direction because the markets find a way to punish those individuals
that look for these types of patterns and that don't exist. And I'll say it like
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this. If you're bullish on the market, and the seasonal tendencies bullish in
the market structure is bullish, then you have a high probability buy with the
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dollar being bearish. Okay. If you are bearish on a market and the market
structure is bearish, and the dollar index is bullish, then you have high
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probability in your favor. If you see a bullish seasonal tendency, and we'll use
coffee as an example here, if we have this seasonal tendency mid July, and the
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markets been bearish going into that mid July time period, we don't look for a
buy, we would look for a short term rally to sell short into and then probably
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see a better price delivery on the downside as a result, because the seasonal
tendency would not be there. And that gives us many times what I mentioned here,
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the departure from the norm in price action that tends to incite excitement in
price action and opportunities. So it's far more important for you to know this
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then and then pattern, because it gives you the foundation to why a market
should have a big move. Because if you're in trading or trying to get into
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trading just to get 10 pips 20 pips as a forex trader, okay? Or try to make 25
pips as a weekly objective, which is what I kind of like teach people to aim for
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in the beginning, I think that's a reasonable objective. It's not high and
lofty. It's something that I think that it could be easily obtained. And you
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could still make a career off of that, as crazy as it may sound. But I don't
want you thinking that that's all you can do with what I give you here on this
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YouTube channel, you could literally turn this into whatever you want it to be,
you want to be a big swing trader catching mega trades. This is one way of going
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into it. Now, notice, I didn't even talk about Commitment of Traders, you notice
that? Did you also notice that I didn't talk about breakers or mitigation
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blocks, see going on referring to there, I have a lot of moving parts. But
you're able to take what makes sense to you, that resonates with you, and say,
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Okay, I'm going to use these things that make up my model. But if it doesn't
have things that are rooted in market truths, you're not going to see those
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things pan out for you. It doesn't make a difference. The buzzwords the cool
little names, the things that you see me show you in your charts doesn't make a
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difference, unless it's rooted and founded in rooted into market truth. And what
is the market truth. The markets will move based on a higher timeframe premise.
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And when we're referring to agricultural markets, like foods, and grains, they
are fundamentally driven by supply and demand factors. Those markets have real
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supply and demand. Every other market out there is manipulated. commodities are
a real market to has supply and demand factors that govern them. They are the
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world's grocery store. So they have a real value like corn is always going to be
worth something. But your share of Tesla could be worth 02 years from now is
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crazy. That might sound I'm not saying that's what's going to happen. But Tesla
stocks the shares, there's no real reason to think that there's value behind
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that, or that it would be in perpetuity worth something. It doesn't mean that
but it's viewed that it has that value right now. But corn will never go to
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worthlessness. It's a food, it'll always have value. And in times of turmoil,
and what I anticipate going forward, there's going to be a shortage of food. And
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that shortage of food is going to put so much supply and demand pressure on
these grains. And that's why you're seeing these big extrapolated price moves.
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Why? Because it's fundamentally driven. So if you're looking for supply and
demand, and you want to trade supply and demand, you can't find a better way of
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doing it then trading commodities, period. That's real, it's real supply and
demand. There's no real supply and demand with a currency. It's all manipulated,
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and in kryptos manipulated to bottom line is this.
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Don't think that you have to worry about making money in these tiny little
intraday fluctuations. The same tools and premise that I teach with these
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intraday can be applied to the larger daily charts. And if I would have just
told you that this chart here for corn. If I told you that was a an hourly chart
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or a 15 minute chart and didn't tell you what market it was, you wouldn't have
known any different because prices price. But knowing where these big moves come
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from and putting your neck on the line. I do that. And if I don't know what I'm
talking about, I would fall on my face miserably. And you keep seeing me
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pointing to the next big moves, pointing to the next big news. Because I have
almost 30 years of experience doing this. I don't want to steer you wrong. I
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don't want to see you fail. I'm inspired by your excitement and your enthusiasm.
It motivates me. It keeps me going. Because it allows me to relive moments just
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like you're having right now. I went through that when you want to quit I went
through that dozens of times. When you feel like you hit a homerun because you
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got more understanding and you can't sleep and you're excited. I've been there.
I know what that feels like. It's amazing, but no body around us gonna
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understand that excitement. Because they think what you're doing or trying to
learn is nonsense. It's a pipe dream to them. But I know I went through that I
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had all that adversity, and everyone around me saying the same things. It's a
waste of time. Don't believe any of that. Don't listen to that stuff. Stop
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talking about what you're planning on doing, and just do it. Don't share your
dreams with other people, because they're going to tell you don't bother who
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wants to hear that. So dig into your charts, dig into the videos that you find
on this YouTube channel. start studying, make 2021 the year that you've framed
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out a model that makes sense to you doesn't have to have all the moving parts
available. But something that makes sense to you. That's rooted in why a market
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should go up or down and where it should reach for logically, I teach that here
on this YouTube channel. And if you put the time into studying it, I promise you
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will find something that you can't find elsewhere. And at least for free. So
until Talk to you next time, be safe, and good luck and good trading.