ICT YT - 2020-10-03 - ICT Price Action Lecture - Non-Farm Payroll Trade Conditions and The Coming Volatility Storm.srt

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ICT: Welcome back, folks, this is a short little discussion.

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One, why I stay on the sidelines after Tuesday's New York

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session on the weeks of non farm payroll. And then I'll

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close this video with a short message about why I believe

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all of you should be careful going into the coming weeks.

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This is the euro dollar chart is a 15 minute time frame. And

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you can see basically, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday is

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price action. Now I teach a principle about the week that

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begins every new month that price delivery can be a little

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skewed a little wonky, a little difficult to get a gauge on

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with high degree of probability. And it has a lot to do with

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the expectation of the non farm payroll number, employment

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numbers. And the beginning of the month. There's been many

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instances over the years where I've stated this is my view

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on it. It's been times where I wish I would have

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participated in these particular days. But for over the last

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27 years, I've can look back and say that's a very small

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number of times, that that will be true. And the most part,

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I'm glad I don't participate in the marketplace, after the

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New York session on Tuesday of the week of non farm payroll.

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What does that mean specifically means that there will

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obviously be gyrations in price. I'm not arguing that point.

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And invariably, there will be moves that will be really

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nice. I'm just not going to be participating in them. Now I

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teach this to my students. I've taught it also on this

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YouTube channel in specific trading, series and lessons.

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There are some that come to this YouTube channel with their

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hard and fast preconceived notions about what they believe

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about pricing. And they're entitled to that opinion. But if

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you're going to be a trader, if you're going to be a

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principle oriented, speculator, then you have to have rules,

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you have to have filters, they may be time based, they may

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be calendar based. And I believe that those individuals that

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do not have filters for their trading, a trade frequency

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number of trades that you can take inside of a day or week

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or month. If you don't have those things in your trading

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plan or your trading model, you're really limiting yourself

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and inviting more adversities, then if you just simply build

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them in. In this industry, less is more and filtering out a

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specific time window of the Year in a particular month. And

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which days out of a month will bring the most likely

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scenarios that will result in a losing trade. almost three

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decades, I've looked at all of my information, all of my

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executions, all of my expectations, my journal entries, and

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I came to the conclusion many years ago that there was a

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specific time of every month that I would be wrong more

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times than I was right. And that happens to be the

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Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, leading up to non farm

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payroll. Without fail, I would have some expectation coming

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into the marketplace. And it would be most likely incorrect.

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And then in those instances when I did not have the wisdom

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to stay out of the marketplace, and when in I would go into

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this revenge mode. So if I took a loss on GM going in there,

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I'm gonna get it back. And then if that loss happened, then

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I would go in with revenge part two. And it would just

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parlay a small mistake into a larger mistake and a larger

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draw down and, truth be told. I actually dusted completely

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blown out. Two commodity trading accounts trading in these

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specific days, and I did it trading the s&p. So there's a

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lot of truth to what I'm saying here. It's based on

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factors that I suffered to learn through blowing out

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accounts, losing money. And I just discovered that I don't

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need to do this 500 times more to get the point. So it's

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important for you to know that it's a good thing to build in

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filters, limiting yourself and abstaining from some times

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where the probability really isn't as high as you might want

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it to be. And years ago, we would look at non farm payrolls,

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say, well, it's gonna have a lot of volatility, I want to be

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a part of that. And I have made money trading, non farm

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payroll Fridays, I have, but I have lost more than I did

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when. So you never hear me preach how that's a good thing,

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NFP, non farm payroll. It's been dubbed by others, which I

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think is cute, but it works. Not for professionals. Okay,

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that that's a day where you just simply say, okay, you know,

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there's going to be movements. There's gyrations and such,

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but I'm okay with not being a part of that. Just like I'm

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not trying to press the envelope in the last two weeks of

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the year in December. I'm not trying to push it hard,

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really, after the week prior to leading up to the US

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celebration of the Thanksgiving holiday. That's usually the

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time where I start to wind down my personal participation.

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And I don't pick it back up until February. Now, that may be

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a lot of time, for some of you listening, there's no way I

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would be out of the market. There's all kinds of trades I

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can take. That's you. That's not me. That's, that's you.

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There's nothing wrong with that. I'm not saying that this is

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beneficial to everyone. Or it's a silver bullet that fixes

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everything for everyone else. I'm just saying that this is

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why I don't hold to the idea that I should be participating

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on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday of non farm payroll, I

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just don't see any necessity for it. And typically, even on

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the Mondays and Tuesdays of that week, I can also look back

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and see that that is the time when I lose more than I make

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nothing. What benefit is it? If you don't use the

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information, when you back test? If you ignore the data, and

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only look for the things you want to see in it? Is that an

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honest approach to using data? No, you're cherry picking

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what you want it to say. Because the numbers and the data,

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no matter what you're looking at, if you torture the numbers

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enough, they will submit to anything. But when you look at

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it with a hard critical, objective view, with the intent of

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benefiting you, not harming, not limiting the amount of

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money you can make. But focusing in on the times where you

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as a trader, you as the decision maker, the analyst, the

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trader, The Gambler, because all of us have three people

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inside of us. I found in my own trading the first week of

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every single month, that is the largest period of time,

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where I lose more trades than any other time. Because of

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that, I dial back my expectations, my trade frequencies, and

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I have a very loose opinion about what I think may happen in

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the marketplace. And I allow my opinion, or bias to be

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flexible that first week of every month. Now I go in with an

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expectation. But I'm flexible to allow myself to admit I'm

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wrong there and I have to allow myself to realign with what

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the markets likely to do. If we look at this price action

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here, I'm going to show you what I do personally but not

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using the actual chart I just make annotations and draw them

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by hand with a line chart. idea in my own journal, but this

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is what I do. Okay, just for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday,

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every single month, I put this in here and I look at it. In

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this view, I show

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roughly, what Wednesday, Thursday and Friday going into non

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farm payroll traded like, Okay, so in essence, it would look

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something like this. Okay, and it wouldn't have every single

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little up and down move here. But it would be a rough idea

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depiction of all these turning points in the high price, the

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low price, the high price, the low price, the high price and

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any short term low prior to a lower low, or any short term

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high, lower than a higher short term high. And I'll explain

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why that's important. Now, add annotations here. What I'm

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recording in my journal is these are short term turning

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points where liquidity was taken short term high here,

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whatever that high price would be. That's what I'm recording

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next to the line drawing in my journal. Okay, and then I

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write down the time. And the day in that series of days,

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Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. And what high it went to

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above it. If this high gets ran out, which does here, I

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write down the high point of that candle. And the time it

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took it out. And how much over range it moved above the

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previous high. Same thing with this hot here, how much did

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it go above it? Any short term high over here, I record the

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high, what time it goes above and how much it went above it.

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The low I record the low price. And it annotated next to the

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crude depiction, I draw my journal. Like I said, I'm an I'm

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a dinosaur, I draw things out. And I don't have a lot of

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printed charts. And it can be very expensive. So you don't

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really need to print them out. But you can create a digital

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journal and annotate your charts. And you never have to

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really print them out at all. And you can have the benefit

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of having it, I just grew into the high touch versus the

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high tech long time ago. And I've never wanted to make the

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transition. Now there's been times where I wish I would have

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made a jump from doing it with pen and journal, literally

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writing it out to a digital because a lot of things I could

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go and find, like I have. I have hundreds of journals. And I

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just simply can't go through. Like if you had a digital

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version, saving everything with a Excel spreadsheet, you

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could put keywords into every journal entry. So like if you

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want to look at every non farm payroll, or a specific non

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farm payroll period of a particular month of a particular

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year, you can go right to that, I can't really do that with

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the way I do it. So in a way, it's many degrees less

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efficient. But I just prefer to do it that way. It's a

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matter of preference. Okay. So while I admit readily that

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there's a lot of disadvantages, the way I do it, and you all

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today, as a younger group of traders that are in

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development, you have a lot more advantages than I did

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coming up. And the people before me had, we had to do

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everything with a spiral notebook, and pencil and scratch

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out this and scratch out that it was a it's a harder way of

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doing it. But my view is, that's what makes you really earn

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it. Whereas now you have so many tools at your disposal.

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Nowadays, you should use them, you should take advantage of

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them. But the benefit of doing that is I study the runs on

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liquidity. And then I look for any price swing that makes

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sense with some of the logic that I use in my repertoire.

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And then what would that look like? Well, there is this one

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here, you have relatively equal lows. But we have a break in

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market structure there. So I will record this high to this

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low the total range of pips between both in the low in the

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high price level. And then the optimal trade entry where it

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trades to in here at an owner block. Okay, so why this order

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block because it goes higher than the previous ones, even

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though this candle goes higher, I'm looking at the body of

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the candle. So I want the higher body up close. That to me

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is the order block right there. So you can extend that in

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time. And if you get a reaction there, you can view that

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potentially as a short, which I did not take because as I

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started this video, my students know also I wasn't trading

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the rest of this week. But I'm providing this information so

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that way, I'm answering hundreds of emails that repeat all

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the time if I'm not trading, what do we do with this

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information? What do we glean from if anything This is what

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I do. Now, what it helps me do is it keeps the fact that

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many principles still exist, and they repeat during these

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days, but they don't unfold or develop

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in the degree of precision that I want to see. Okay, so

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there's a lot of signatures that you don't know that I have

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in my toolbox that I'm looking for, that aren't always

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showing up in these particular days. Whereas like next week,

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the signatures that I would expect to see in price will

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probably be there. Because it's not during non farm payroll,

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there's a lot of manipulation, there's a lot of traction and

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holding of a range leading up into non farm payroll. And

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today was kind of like a dud, you can see on Friday, it

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wasn't much price action at all. But this swing here, if we

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add a fib, just to get the idea of overbought, oversold and

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projected low. trades up into the 70.5. Sweet Spot. Once it

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breaks, this low here, trades down into negative point five

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standard deviation, price 116 97 for the low comes in at

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116 958. So it's close. But just that's not as tight as I

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like to see it. Take that off. And then watching non farm

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payroll, I record the high the day, the low of the day, and

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the session highs and lows at London close at New York open

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and London open. So those price points is what I refer to

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and then I'll refer to the same price points in next week's

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trading. And I'll look at how we work with those levels and

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what they leave in place. Like for instance, if this is the

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low of the day, by the time we close, and it's three minutes

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before 3pm and eastern standard time as at the time of this

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recording. Do they leave this low intact? Do they leave as

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high intact, chances are, it's probably going to be the case

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but not always. Sometimes there's a little rush where it

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runs to one of them and blows one of them out. I look at

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that on Saturday morning. And I refer back to all these

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price points. Because everything that's being shown here as

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liquidity pool and being targeted, they will still be

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referenced in the next week or the following week. They're

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important, because this was all pre non farm payroll, and

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the non farm payroll numbers come out. These reference

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points will be utilized at a later time. They'll either act

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as a point of drawing on liquidity, or they will be blown

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out and then potentially retested. And then another price

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leg will continue. And I want you to take my word for I want

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you to go back and look at your own data. And study it works

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on bonds, it works on equities, it works on s&p index,

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futures and forex, any any forex pair. So while I stay out

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of the marketplace these particular days of the month,

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knowing that I'm likely to be wrong these days, I still use

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the information by doing this practice, okay, I go in, I

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find the information I'm looking for. And I record that. And

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then I carry those ideas. And those levels, even though they

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may not particularly show themselves on my charts when I'm

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teaching. They're in my notes. So when price is starting to

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go close to one of these levels, and what levels I'm

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referring to the actual high here, the actual high here, the

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high here, the high here, here, and here and here. So their

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levels I'm watching, because there may be something that

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forms that I teach my students, a specific PD array may key

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off of one of these levels. And if it does, and it matches

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time and price, then I'm probably have a setup, but not

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during these days. Okay. So I just wanted to throw that out

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there because I get a lot of emails and hopefully this

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answers it. But I just want to make a short little

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commentary right now about what we're going to most likely

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see in the coming weeks. At the time of this recording at

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three o'clock, Friday, October 2 2020. Many of you know that

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we have an election on November 3. On November 3, we're

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probably going to see an enormous amount of volatility. If

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you go back and look at the 2016 election, there was some

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wild price action that took place and I think we're gonna

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have more of that this year. We have never been as polarized

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as we have been In recent years, as a nation, I've been

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warning my students, and I would not be able to rest easy.

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Knowing that a lot of you aren't able to hear me talk to my

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mentorship students like I do.

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So I'm going to bring this message to the YouTube channel,

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students as well, because I care about you. I care about

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you, whether you sign up to my mentorship or not, because

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you have given me your time, your trust. And I want no one

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to get hurt, not financially, not emotionally, like not

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psychologically. And I believe that we're entering a period

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where there is going to be an enormous amount of risk,

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enormous amount of risk. I'm personally dialing back my own

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trading, or I am not willing to put myself out there and

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have someone have such a high degree of trust and regard in

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me in my analysis. And even though I teach by way of a demo,

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or paper trading because of legal reasons, and limitations,

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because I'm not certified to get trade advice. We only talk

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about paper trading. And that's not the same as live

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trading. Invariably, my students get excited about some

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things I may say, and they go in with Live account trading.

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And then they send me emails, Hey, I just did this. I know

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you don't like to hear this, but I just want to thank you,

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blah, blah, blah. I don't want anyone to do this. In the

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coming weeks. If you don't listen to this warning, and

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something happens, I would feel terrible, because you didn't

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listen to me. Last year, when I was on Twitter, I told

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everybody in October, I said something really Bad's coming.

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And I said in 2016, before Trump was even elected, that he

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would be elected. And in the last year, we would see what

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you're looking at all around, look around. These are the

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things that I talked about. Now, I'm not trying to claim to

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be some kind of Oracle. Okay. It's this common sense, folks.

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Okay, we have a tinderbox waiting for the right Spark. And

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the markets are going to do something probably that's

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completely unexpected by many of you, especially to new

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folks that are just now entering. If you click on videos,

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mine included, you're probably met with, Hey, are you

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looking for a way to make money sitting home trading off

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your phone, I'm going to turn you into a millionaire, I took

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my hundred thousand dollars and turned into $5 million in

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two years, and I'm going to show you exactly how to do it

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too. We're constantly slammed with that kind of stuff on

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YouTube, I'm just like everything is someone's teaching you

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how to trade. Okay? Nobody is warning them, or you have the

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potential impossibility that is going to be wrapped up as a

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potential opportunity. And I'll say it this way. I learned

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early on. And I can't remember where I got this quote from.

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It's not original to me. But sometimes, opportunity is

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cleverly disguised. But it's an impossibility. So there may

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be something that looks like a wonderful opportunity. But

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you engage, and then you get smoked in a way that you can't

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afford. I want you to think about this for a moment. We have

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a stoploss that we can use in trading. Great, that's

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wonderful. But what happens when the market gaps through

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that the broker is not obligated to give you your stock

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price. It's going to be whatever the next price trades and

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it could be hundreds of pips beyond where your stop was. Are

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you prepared for that? Because we could be going into a

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period where they're going to say there's no liquidity.

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That's what they're going to say. But it's going to be

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luckily a very huge repricing. The banks can make the price

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whatever they want it to be folks. Period. Doesn't matter if

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you'd like me, doesn't matter if you agree with me. That's

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the facts. It's their commodity. They can set the price to

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whatever they want. Carefully, consider What you're doing in

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the coming weeks, I personally have told my own students, I

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said, I'm not going to be putting myself out there. I don't

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want anyone to get hurt. And I'm going to be filling up

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these coming weeks with just mainly teachings. And I am not

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willing to do anything with opinions, or analysis

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forecasting. As we get closer to the election, this week,

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here, the 26th of October, to the sixth of November, I made

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a very blunt statement, I'm not talking about the future, in

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the charts. During those weeks, as we get closer to those

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weeks, I'm gonna be dialing back my opinions also, if I've

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been doing this for almost three decades, and I'm telling

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you, this is how I see it. And while I'm not perfect, while

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I'm not 100% I'm pretty good. And every fiber in my being is

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screaming right now, to warn you not to do anything stupid.

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Don't trade with your normal leverage. If you think that

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you're good at trading. Regardless of what you've made in

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the past, folks, listen, we're going into the perfect storm,

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the perfect storm, we have a perfect fall guy in the White

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House. He can be blamed for everything. We have someone that

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could potentially take over the White House that doesn't

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really have their mental faculties together. There are so

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many things at stake right now. And so many opportunities

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for the sheep to be fleeced. Don't stand with the herd. Stay

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in the brush. don't participate. Don't look at these coming

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weeks as I'm going to get rich, I'm going to get these big

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moves to come. Because that's what a gambler says. The

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Gambler in all of us has to be controlled. That's the one in

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you. That's taking the unnecessary risks, not using a stop

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loss, more trades than they should. Over leveraging. That's

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the gambler. Every one of us has that person in us first to

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conquer. This next is the trader. The trader needs to know

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what he or she is going to do. And when where does that

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information come from? The analyst that's in all of us.

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Sadly, most Instagram celebrities are just the gamblers

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masquerading as traders that aren't even analysts. The

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analyst has the most sober opinion about what likely is

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going to occur and how to manage the expectations and

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executions that the trader in you should follow. So all of

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you have three personalities whether you want to admit it or

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not. That's what's going on, you're wrestling these three

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identities in each of us are always at odds with one

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another. But you have to trust one of them. And that is the

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analyst. The analyst in me is saying we are getting into an

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area where there's an on believable amount of risk that most

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people are just simply not talking about. It's all about

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getting rich. It's all about making money. It's about taking

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trade signals. Join my this and join my that I'm just trying

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to be a voice of reason, folks. I hope I'm wrong. I hope I'm

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wrong. But I wasn't wrong in 2016. Look at the state of the

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world. And in the US. I said the streets would be wild, wild

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west. And it is I say we will be polarized to a degree that

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we've never been before. And we are a try to impeach him.

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Well, they didn't impeach him, but he tried to remove him

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from office and I'm not here to defend Trump. Okay, I'm I'm

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disgusted by both of them. Really, if I want to be honest

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with you, I'm not happy with either one of them. But my

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opinion about that is of no importance. And frankly, you

385
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shouldn't even consider that. All I'm saying is that the

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environment that this entire thing is presenting us try to

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be sober in your thinking and just acknowledge the potential

388
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risks. Take a hiatus if this is the the only time that you

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00:29:47,880 --> 00:29:50,160
go back to a demo account if you're trading with my funds,

390
00:29:50,580 --> 00:29:58,230
do it because the safety in that and the ability to preserve

391
00:29:58,680 --> 00:30:05,340
potential Cosmic losses is far better than going in there

392
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and rolling the dice and getting caught off side on

393
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something that you wish you would have never done.

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Maybe there won't be anything happening, maybe there won't

395
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be any big volatility move. I hope I'm wrong. I absolutely

396
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hope I'm wrong. But I knew something was coming in October

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last year, when I was operating on Twitter, which I don't

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have a Twitter account anymore. And I said that we're gonna

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have some real problems here and Something Wicked is coming.

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And then everybody got sick. And then I said the day before

401
00:30:43,560 --> 00:30:47,520
the stock market crashes, we're going to crash. And we did.

402
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I have a bigger sense of urgency in me screaming this to say

403
00:30:59,550 --> 00:31:02,460
what I'm saying that's all. You don't have to like me,

404
00:31:02,460 --> 00:31:05,280
folks. You could be the guy or gal that's thumbing down my

405
00:31:05,280 --> 00:31:12,150
video. If you are speculating. Just consider the potential

406
00:31:12,150 --> 00:31:21,330
risks. That's all I'm saying. Or choose not to. Until next

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time, wish good luck and good trading.