ICT YT - 2020-09-17 - ICT Forex Price Action Lesson - Advanced IPDA Insights.srt
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ICT: Okay, folks, welcome back. This is gonna be a lesson on
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institutional order flow and secrets of efficient price
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delivery in forex. Now what I'm going to be showing you is
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the fingerprints of algorithmic signatures. And this is one
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of those higher order price action lessons that I would only
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give to a charter member.
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Okay, institutional order flow and secrets of efficient and
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price delivery in forex. We're gonna be introducing the
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interbank dealing range, external and internal range
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liquidity, weekly power three heirarchy and institutional
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order flow out epta interbank price delivery algorithm
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delivers efficient price and a weekly low delivery. So when
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you look at price action, and I school, all my students with
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the thought process of removing this insatiable need to have
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indicators on your chart, I'm going to show you why
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indicators are not required by actually putting on an
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indicator. So I'm saying this up front. Okay, I guess
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there's people making YouTube videos about me saying that I
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use indicators, despite me saying I don't believe that
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anyone should be using indicators. So there's a context,
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okay, that you have to have. And I'm only going to be
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showing this in contrast. So you'll see that the visibility
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that my concepts and processes, allow me to see everything
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before your indicators will show you overbought, oversold,
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and things of that nature. Alright, so this is kind of
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advanced. So if you're new to my work, it's probably going
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to go over your head and in certain parts. For some of you
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that have been familiar with my YouTube channel for years,
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you're going to see some things that my mentorship group is
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very familiar with. And you're going to see things that
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you've not been exposed to anywhere else. This is the actual
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market. This is how the markets book. This is how the price
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is created and presented on your charts. It's not patterns.
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Okay, it's efficient delivery. And I'll explain that when we
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get to the chart. So let's do that now. Alright, folks, we
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are looking at the euro dollar, this is a 15 minute
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timeframe. And the data that I'm displaying is from the feed
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that's offered on trading view for forex.com. So that way,
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if you want to compare and contrast your own charts, and
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look at what I'm showing you here, that way, everything will
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be on the up and up. Right, so I want you to look at this
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segment of price action. And right away, I already know an
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anticipate. And it's unreasonable for you to understand
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where I'm going to draw your attention to. But I'm going to
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hopefully, pull back the veil a little bit and show you how
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these algorithms operate and where they reach for for their
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data. Okay, which is what I teach is a pdra critical highs
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and lows, areas of inefficiency, where price needs to most
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likely go back to and rebalance. And I'll explain what that
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is when we get into the video. But looking at this price
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action, there are specific things that are important. And
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it's not obvious to traders unless they're schooled to look
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for it. And no one out there has ever revealed this before.
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No one has ever explained how these things occur. They
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always have these little pieces of things. And it feels like
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you've always been in search of that next thing, if I could
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just figure out that one thing that unlocks everything. And
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while this lesson isn't necessarily going to do that, it's
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going to show you again,
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I have a very deep cookie jar, okay. The lessons that I have
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taught publicly and even in my private mentorship. They're
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not done. They're nowhere near done. And there's so much
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more depth to it. So I'm going to kind of bring you into
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this and even my charter members have not been exposed to
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this. So I want you to number one, appreciate the fact that
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my willingness to do this is very cherished. Okay, so I
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don't need to do this, I do this simply because I enjoy it.
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And that's also kind of like a way for me to snub my nose at
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the folks that think they know everything because they got a
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couple videos on the slide. So we're looking at the Euro
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dollars to 15 minute timeframe. And I want to take your
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attention to this area right over here. Now everyone knows,
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because of this YouTube channel, I've made it very public.
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And everyone has it in their analysis. And that's great,
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because that was reason why I shared I want everyone to
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learn from it and grow from it. But these relative equal
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highs, above that there's going to be by side liquidity. And
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below this area here would be self signed liquidity. But if
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you're looking at your chart, and say, This is the chart
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that you have, at the time and say this is mark to market
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right now real time, wherever you are in the world, this is
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what your chart looks like. What do you use to glean any
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kind of information? Well, I'm going to introduce the
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interbank dealing range. And what that is, is a specific
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range, okay. You probably seen even my videos in the past as
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well, where I'll take a Fibonacci and I'll lay it over top
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of a particular price like, or a particular swing low to
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swing high or swing high to swing low. And perhaps you
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looked at that and thought, why is he picking that swing and
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not this swing? And I've had trolls in the past, you know,
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say, you know, he doesn't know what he's doing. It's just
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he's cherry picking. I'm going to show you one of the things
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that I do. And it's based on how the algorithm refers to old
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data. Your indicators don't calculate on the basis of this,
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your school of thought, and retail things that I even
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studied to folks. Okay, I started in 1992. And I was
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actually introduced to technical analysis back when I was
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16, which was years before 1992. My uncle actually was
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trying to teach me technical analysis back in 1988. And
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being a young man, I really wasn't all that interested. But
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I was being exposed to it at that point, overbought,
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oversold trendlines, and that such so. But in 1992, I
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formally sat down and began my learning November 5 1992, on
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a Thursday night at 9pm. So that's one of those moments in
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my career, I can look back and say all that started then
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that was like my birthday as ICT. None of the books I've
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purchased none of the courses I purchased, none of the
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seminars I attended, all those things never really got to
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the heart of what makes price move. Why is it doing what
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it's doing. And this is one of those lessons to show you
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just how much is actually going on behind the scenes that
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you're never really exposed to. I want you to take a look at
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this area here where the bias of liquidity is you see how we
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ran above that with this price run. And now also, can you
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see how this swing low here that starts this price run was
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taken out with this movement here. So we have two reference
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points. One, this is a run on external range, liquidity
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that's over here. And this low here is a run on internal
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range liquidity. Now while I'm not going to go into great
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detail about what exactly is internal range and external
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range liquidity, it's important for you just to understand
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that I'm calling reference points to this low. And these
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highs and we have cleared the board if you will, on both
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side, sell stocks below this low had been taken out and buy
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stops above these Highs over here have been taken out with
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this price run. So that means we have a specific price
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range. And I'm gonna show you that now. We have this new low
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and this high. What that is, is the interbank dealing range
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high and low. What it specifically draws attention to is the
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most recent run on liquidity above the marketplace which is
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buy side liquidity and below the marketplace which is sell
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side liquidity.
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So once you have arrived at a particular swing that has done
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both ran buy side and sell side. Now in this instance you
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can see how prices ran by side above these relative equal
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Highs over here. It ran all that buy side liquidity out
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first then it ran for this area here which below that low
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would be sell side liquidity. So in this instance, the macro
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was run by side first then attack sell side where it could
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have started running sell side first and then running by
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side. But you would use whatever those key highs and lows
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are that way runs both sides of the marketplace. So, again,
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it's not important for you to understand this at all, at
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this point, just know that that's the framework I'm using. I
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teach internal range and external range liquidity and
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dealing ranges. But it's beyond the scope and time because
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it takes multiple lessons, but I'm introducing it publicly
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here. Because I just want to show you, I just really want to
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show you something that transcends everything else. Okay,
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and you'll see the logic. And you'll also start to see some
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of the things I've made available for free on this YouTube
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channel, how they plug into this narrative. And it becomes
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like Swiss timepiece, it's perfection. Because if these
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markets are, in fact, rigged, if they're controlled, there's
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going to be signatures that prove that they are and they're
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going to be precise, and they're going to be predictable.
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They won't have any area of randomness, if you will, okay,
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so, this area here in this area here, I have done introduce
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that. So both buy side and sell side equity has been purged,
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now this low and this high, that's your range. Okay. So if
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we scrub over, you can see how we've started to run higher.
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And once you have that dealing range, okay, the interbank
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dealing range means that there's going to be a lot of
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interest in seeing price returned back inside this range to
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a particular price level. Now, as retail traders, we're
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indoctrinated to think in terms of buying when the markets
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are oversold, and selling short the markets when they're
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overbought. And right away, you'd look for things and you
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probably some of you that are really hot guide, you probably
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always seen this, they can say he's using indicators the
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whole time, he's not a liar. He's a lie. You're he's trading
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divergence on percent are. I'll bring this up in a second.
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But we look at price action. In my group in my community, I
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convey the importance of just reading price action, because
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it'll give you overbought, oversold by understanding the
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ranges that you're trading in. A lot of folks don't realize
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when you're looking at overbought oversold indicators or
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momentum indicators, the mathematics behind that they're
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just looking at a predetermined range of bars. Okay, and
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then wherever the highest time we were the lowest lowest,
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then it plots that and it gives you what we understand in
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the retail universe is overbought, oversold, but you don't
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need that. Okay, so the line that you see here, this orange
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line, I'm going to outline what that is, if you take the
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high here that ran the by side liquidity, and then this low
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here taken out there, that low, between this low and this
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high, if you'd find the exact midpoint. And the way you can
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do that is use a Fibonacci to get a 50% level. That's really
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the importance of the Fibonacci To me, the 50 level, because
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at this level, if price goes above it, while inside this
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range between this high and this low, we are at a short term
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overbought scenario. Now, by itself, it doesn't mean
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anything. If we can draw some kind of parallel to something
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in this price leg, when we are above that midpoint, or
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equilibrium, then it's more salient, it's meaningful, it's
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something that we can take action on. Okay. Just because we
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went above that doesn't necessarily mean that there's a
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setup that I as ICT would take. Now, it means that we can
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anticipate some measure of a decline, but that might not
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necessarily equate to a short. Okay, and I'll explain as we
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go along. But as we go further in the price action, we start
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a new week here. So this is all price action from last week.
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And Monday's trading starts here. And then we go deeper
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above this high and deeper, in reference to this high, too
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low, see how much higher we are up here. We aren't going
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back to this high. All we're trying to do is look for
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periods where it trades above this orange line that the
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darker one
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actually can take this line off as a matter of fact, has
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already talked about the liquidity pool. So let's take that
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off. And then we'll probably make it a little easier for you
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to follow along. So this was the initial run above the
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midpoint, okay, and anytime we get above the midpoint of a
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particular range. The algorithm sees that as a premium.
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Okay, and what does that mean? It means that it's too
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expensive, okay, or approaching expensive. Now, much like in
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the same idea that overbought and oversold overbought
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conditions can stay overbought and the market can still go
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higher. So don't don't misunderstand what I'm saying here
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and saying that when whenever we're above the midpoint,
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that's a easy slam dunk, overbought or shorting scenario,
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you have to reference things inside this price leg. Okay, so
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inside this price leg, there are specific things that we
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look for that if they line up with time and price, not price
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in time, time and price, then you'll see a high probability
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scenario unfold. You also bring in day of the week. So day
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of the week is, as I taught even on this YouTube channel,
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and back in 2010, I shared it publicly on baby pips, where
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the algorithm when we are bearish. Now, if this is the first
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time you've watched the video by me, I promise you, if you
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go through other videos, you'll hear me discuss this in
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great detail. It's not being forfeited, it's not cherry
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picked. And also, if you watch the video, I think it was
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five or six days ago, from last week, where I even tell you,
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there's a particular price level 117 40 was my short term
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target, on euro dollar. And if you go and watch that video,
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if I'm not mistaken, I think it's like a 15 or 20 minute
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video. So it's not hard to find, but go back. And if I
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don't, if I try not to forget, I'll add the link to the
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video where you can actually hear me talk about 1740 is my
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short term target. So and prices up here. So while that's a
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target, we have to have something to provide the catalyst
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that send price to that particular price level. So we
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transition from last week into new trading week here. And
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when these price action trades up to this level, and we
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consolidate and then Tuesday, which is what I teach if we
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are bearish on foreign currency. And I have been bearish and
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I mentioned this publicly, in the YouTube videos I've been
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putting out last week, I said that I've have a modest
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bullish stance on dollar and foreign currency lower. And I
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gave you a particular price level last week. Okay, so I
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forecasted a very price level that you see highlighted here
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on this chart 117 40. And I'll even show you why I use that
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level. Okay, I'm going to pull back the curtain and show you
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everything. But I'm on record days in advance, telling you
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that that's where I think it's going to go. Now I'm going to
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pull together the things that I have taught some where in
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this library of YouTube videos I have, I don't know exactly
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where I have everything. Because I've done a lot of videos
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and off top my head, I just don't know where I have them.
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But it's taught. But I teach that when we're bearish, there
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is a 70% likelihood that the high of the week will form on
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Tuesday. If it doesn't form on Tuesday, it will occur on
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Wednesday. But if it does form on Tuesday, you'll still get
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a very strong sell on Wednesday as well. So your focus
266
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should be where is price drawing to where's where's the next
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draw on liquidity? Okay, if we're bearish, and this was the
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range that we've outlined here, and this is what I'm
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teaching you how I interpreted price action going into this
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week for euro dollar, then if we're bearish, we anticipate a
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run below this low, it's going to leave that dealing range.
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Because it's already done its work here on by side. And if
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you subscribe to the same view I was holding for weeks now
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that there's a modest not extremely strong but a modest
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bullish stance to dollar. If dollar goes up, there's a more
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likelihood that the foreign currency markets will drop.
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Okay, that's the normal Evan flow. So if we look at the
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relationship of that range from high to low, and now
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incorporate days of the week, here we have Tuesday, Tuesday,
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we started Monday late and then crossed over into Tuesday.
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And then as the market makes its run above this level right
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in here, okay, this level here is an hourly candle
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signature. And it's a rejection block.
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Your teach and mentorship Michael No, I'm demonstrating my
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creations. I have the right to do so. And it still won't
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help you. You have to have me teaching you using it ahead
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00:19:21,270 --> 00:19:27,300
and endzone hot plugs in play. mentorship videos is not the
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same thing as you have my entire mentorship I'm not even
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00:19:31,020 --> 00:19:34,620
we're nearly done. But because you may have this in your
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notes or you see it know what people's charts they don't
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know everything about these things. It's just a new thing.
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It's a new pattern. It's a new harmonic animal. It's a new
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gimmick Okay, it but nobody else but me knows this stuff.
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And it's it's important you understand that? But if we take
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a look at how price runs above, and I'll show you exactly
296
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what this is what makes that a rejection. As we zoom out,
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and I'll show you why the 1740 levels important too, but we
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are now looking at two things. We're trading at a particular
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price level, which is a 16 minute rejection block. And day
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of the week is Tuesday, while price is expected to go lower
301
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in foreign currency, and dollar higher, okay, well, if we
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scroll on over here,
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price goes up on Tuesday traces the rejection block, and
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look how far we are above that orange line. Again, that's
305
00:20:42,119 --> 00:20:45,929
equilibrium. So anything above this line is a premium. So
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that's where your high probability shorts are going to
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00:20:48,479 --> 00:20:51,419
occur. But you have to have it in reference to a specific
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price range. This is the interbank price range, right here.
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This is the dealing range in which the algorithm is going to
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work within it doesn't need to go up above this high here,
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because it's already done. So. So the last time it ran
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liquidity in this range was taking out sellside. So what
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it'll do is it'll create short term highs to do what every
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time it creates a short term high and starts starts to trade
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down, traders will go short. And they'll put what what above
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this level, new buy stops to protect their shorts. So
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willing buyers have orders resting above this high in the
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market trades above that what's what's actually happening.
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They're accumulating short positions, who is the interbank
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traders, you don't see them. They're not on CNBC. They don't
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write books. Okay, but that's what's occurring above this
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high. They're shorting they're selling to those buy stocks
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being activated. These individuals that were selling short,
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they're now neutralized, they're no longer in the market.
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But their order was Counterparty to interbank traders that
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now have a short position. Same thing, the market drops
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down, the algorithm delivers a small little decline. What
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starts to build above here, more buy side liquidity, buy
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stocks, because now this one failed, but this one really is
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the high in the marketplace. So they can go short. The
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market trades down a little bit, give them that little
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cookie, or they chase it down here and they put their stop
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loss above here, what kind of stop by stop. The market runs
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above that on Tuesday, takes that biocide liquidity out. And
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interbank traders sell short to those buy stops. So now they
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have built in a bank of selling in here. And in here. Now
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this is when it gets interesting because now this is the day
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that we got teach and have taught publicly that the high of
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the week when we're bearish, it will form 70% of the time on
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Tuesday. What's the high the week so far? Tuesday. So the
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market trades lower now It leaves all of this price action
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right here by breaking down. So this high, this low. And
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this high here. On Tuesday, I taught you how to look at
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market structure and how to validate those breaks in market
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structure so you can trade with them. When the market trades
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below here, when we start seeing go back above this midpoint
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or equilibrium, this is the Wednesday selling opportunity.
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Remember, the weekly profile is likely to trade lower. Okay,
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so weekly power three is we open make the high of the week
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on Tuesday and then start trading lower into Wednesday,
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Thursday or Friday to attack a low to make the low of the
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week. The low the week, I even told you last week was
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117 40. That's my target. I'm looking for Euro to go to
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117 40. putting all this together when we broke down on
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Tuesday, look at this area who doesn't like a bear flag, it
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goes down a little bit gets everyone thinking it's gonna go
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lower, and then Rams it right back up into the breaker
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trades on Wednesday, again, London session, then it cascades
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00:24:12,869 --> 00:24:17,489
lower. Then every rally from that point one, it's only going
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to rally to a point of inefficiency. And what does that
361
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mean? Let me take this level off because now we've already
362
00:24:24,869 --> 00:24:26,969
used it and it's accomplished the method already so we don't
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need to reference it anymore. And I'm going to zoom in. Now
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on Wednesday when the market starts to really start to take
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off and go lower every time the market creates a little
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small gap in price now think for a moment okay. The ideal
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00:24:45,839 --> 00:24:50,039
scenario is dollars bullish foreign currencies bearish. We
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00:24:50,039 --> 00:24:52,799
have now made a high or potential high of the week on
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00:24:52,799 --> 00:24:57,299
Tuesday and Wednesday it's selling off. So we can trust that
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00:24:57,299 --> 00:25:01,199
this is likely to draw down to our objective which is 117 40
371
00:25:01,619 --> 00:25:04,199
I promise I'm going to show you why 1740 but for now just
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00:25:04,199 --> 00:25:07,559
follow along, every time that the market gets ahead of
373
00:25:07,559 --> 00:25:12,209
itself and trades quick, with large ranges, or in this case,
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00:25:12,209 --> 00:25:16,139
on my chart, I have a down candle as a Black Candle. It
375
00:25:16,139 --> 00:25:21,239
creates a little pocket where one particular candle, okay,
376
00:25:21,299 --> 00:25:28,679
only has the black range on one candle, that one singular
377
00:25:28,679 --> 00:25:32,279
area, okay, that is a fair value got. That's my creation,
378
00:25:32,489 --> 00:25:33,149
that's mine.
379
00:25:34,890 --> 00:25:38,970
That little area in price action. It's if you just
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00:25:38,970 --> 00:25:42,990
understand that little piece of the puzzle, within a
381
00:25:42,990 --> 00:25:48,540
narrative. You don't ever need a job again, you do not need
382
00:25:49,080 --> 00:25:54,450
to work for your money. You have to have a bias. Are you
383
00:25:54,450 --> 00:25:58,500
bullish or bearish? Okay, if you're bullish, how high? Is it
384
00:25:58,500 --> 00:26:02,130
going to go up? What's it reaching for? It may not get right
385
00:26:02,130 --> 00:26:04,290
to that level. But if it's as long as it's drawn towards
386
00:26:04,290 --> 00:26:07,500
that level, and wherever the market is, there's range of
387
00:26:07,500 --> 00:26:11,580
potential pips that could be harvested in there. Again, your
388
00:26:11,580 --> 00:26:14,580
setups are not always about getting to the target. It's as
389
00:26:14,580 --> 00:26:17,340
long as it's moving in that direction. You can bank
390
00:26:17,340 --> 00:26:19,710
something along the way, and you can fail to hit your
391
00:26:19,710 --> 00:26:23,220
targets, but you still profit it. So it's about making money
392
00:26:23,220 --> 00:26:27,150
when you're wrong. If you're bearish, same thing you're
393
00:26:27,150 --> 00:26:29,910
looking for, where's the market likely to draw to? I told
394
00:26:29,910 --> 00:26:34,470
you all last week 117 40 on euro dollar. So now, we started
395
00:26:34,470 --> 00:26:38,700
the trading week. Do we throw away everything I've always
396
00:26:39,060 --> 00:26:43,530
said about the weekly range? No. If I'm telling you that I'm
397
00:26:43,560 --> 00:26:46,830
modestly bullish on dollar, and I'm bearish on euro and I
398
00:26:46,830 --> 00:26:50,250
think it's gonna go to 117 40. without really saying it,
399
00:26:50,250 --> 00:26:54,060
what does that really say? That I should be looking at
400
00:26:54,090 --> 00:26:57,870
reasons for the eurodollar to go lower. Okay. So if you've
401
00:26:57,870 --> 00:27:01,200
studied this YouTube channel, that means what makes the
402
00:27:01,200 --> 00:27:03,660
market go lower? And what does it usually look like? Okay,
403
00:27:03,660 --> 00:27:06,570
well, we got to start a new week. It trades up mix the high
404
00:27:06,570 --> 00:27:08,910
the week on Tuesday. Okay, if you missed the high of the
405
00:27:08,910 --> 00:27:11,670
week on Tuesday, forming Wednesday's your next opportunity.
406
00:27:11,670 --> 00:27:13,560
That's what you're seeing here. This is Wednesday's trading.
407
00:27:14,370 --> 00:27:18,000
Now watch what happens. This strong break here below these
408
00:27:18,000 --> 00:27:21,690
lows, that one singular candle right there creates a fair
409
00:27:21,690 --> 00:27:31,080
value gap. What is that she used the blocks this low of this
410
00:27:31,080 --> 00:27:35,220
upclose candle here, and the high of this down closed candle
411
00:27:35,910 --> 00:27:43,470
right there. That's a fair value, got the market trades
412
00:27:43,470 --> 00:27:47,670
right back up and rebalances all the down candle, the Black
413
00:27:47,670 --> 00:27:50,700
Candle, Okay, I'm gonna take this box, because it's going to
414
00:27:50,700 --> 00:27:52,350
get in my way, and it's gonna drive me nuts. It's probably
415
00:27:52,350 --> 00:27:59,430
driving you nuts too. But. And in fact, let's zoom in to
416
00:27:59,430 --> 00:28:01,740
because I really want you to see what I'm showing you here.
417
00:28:02,460 --> 00:28:12,060
So all of this Black Candle from the low and the high of
418
00:28:12,060 --> 00:28:16,800
this candle here. This is the area that needs to rebalance.
419
00:28:17,490 --> 00:28:24,000
Okay, so if you want to know how efficient price action is,
420
00:28:24,960 --> 00:28:28,920
the market trades up into it trades all of this down
421
00:28:28,920 --> 00:28:31,350
movement. In other words, think of it like a paint roller.
422
00:28:31,440 --> 00:28:34,920
Okay, you're going to paint your wall in your home, you get
423
00:28:34,920 --> 00:28:36,870
your paint roll, you put it in the pan, collect a lot of
424
00:28:36,870 --> 00:28:40,170
paint on it, then you apply the roller to your wall, and you
425
00:28:40,170 --> 00:28:43,140
stroke up or you stroke down depending on whatever direction
426
00:28:43,140 --> 00:28:46,470
you go forth first, and it'll roll out evenly real thick,
427
00:28:46,470 --> 00:28:49,770
ample delivery of paint. And if you keep rolling enough,
428
00:28:49,950 --> 00:28:53,460
eventually you'll start seeing little pockets. Well, imagine
429
00:28:53,460 --> 00:28:55,950
that paint roller here starting and it's starting to go
430
00:28:55,950 --> 00:29:00,090
down. Okay? And then this is one of those little pockets. So
431
00:29:00,090 --> 00:29:01,710
if you see that, what are you going to do with the paint
432
00:29:01,710 --> 00:29:05,070
roller, he's gonna leave like that. No, you're gonna roll
433
00:29:05,070 --> 00:29:08,970
back up to fill in that little area. That's what's going on.
434
00:29:09,540 --> 00:29:14,430
Every price range in forex in any other market for real
435
00:29:16,080 --> 00:29:21,450
needs to be efficiently traded to Okay, and if you ever
436
00:29:21,450 --> 00:29:26,040
studied auction theory, this is the real version of that
437
00:29:26,130 --> 00:29:30,240
because auction theory is just part of it. When markets
438
00:29:30,240 --> 00:29:34,170
deliver on a downside, to efficiently deliver that price
439
00:29:34,410 --> 00:29:36,750
between the high this candle and the low this candle,
440
00:29:37,020 --> 00:29:39,540
there's an imbalance from the previous candles low and the
441
00:29:39,540 --> 00:29:42,810
next candle is high. It only went down between this candles
442
00:29:42,810 --> 00:29:46,650
low in this candle is hot it went down. Notice that that's
443
00:29:46,650 --> 00:29:49,650
what I'm highlighting here. So going in the future at some
444
00:29:49,650 --> 00:29:54,600
point. The markets going to go back up and offer buy side
445
00:29:54,600 --> 00:29:57,780
delivery. So this is sell side delivery, where the market is
446
00:29:57,780 --> 00:30:01,530
going down for that range. Between this candle is low and
447
00:30:01,530 --> 00:30:04,680
this candle is high to be efficiently delivered, the
448
00:30:04,680 --> 00:30:07,920
algorithm has to go up between this candle high and this
449
00:30:07,920 --> 00:30:11,100
candles low. And it does. So there. Once that occurs, this
450
00:30:11,100 --> 00:30:14,460
becomes a balanced price range. What does that mean? It's
451
00:30:14,460 --> 00:30:17,490
balanced, it's not imbalanced, it doesn't need to go any
452
00:30:17,490 --> 00:30:19,950
higher than that. It can, as you can see a little bit here.
453
00:30:20,370 --> 00:30:24,840
But that's the, that's the heirarchy of order flow, you have
454
00:30:24,840 --> 00:30:28,530
to understand how if a market has delivered an up candle,
455
00:30:29,790 --> 00:30:33,900
at some point in the future, it needs to come back down to
456
00:30:33,900 --> 00:30:38,160
that same range to offer sell side and vice versa. So this
457
00:30:38,160 --> 00:30:41,130
in itself could be a target or in this case, it could be an
458
00:30:41,130 --> 00:30:45,150
entry strategy. So you could go short here and anticipate
459
00:30:45,150 --> 00:30:51,960
price going lower. Very, very similar thing happening here,
460
00:30:51,990 --> 00:30:55,620
we have a low and a high, and the market goes right back up
461
00:30:55,620 --> 00:30:59,100
into and delivers all this downside, it gives it by side
462
00:30:59,130 --> 00:31:04,800
again. And it rebalances then what happens in price. It
463
00:31:04,800 --> 00:31:14,730
trades lower until we get to what FOMC. So we have FOMC
464
00:31:15,630 --> 00:31:17,760
nonsense at two o'clock in the afternoon, it goes back and
465
00:31:17,760 --> 00:31:21,360
forth whips around. That's normal, because it's clearing
466
00:31:21,360 --> 00:31:23,940
both sides of the marketplace. It's clearing the stops above
467
00:31:23,940 --> 00:31:25,890
the short term high and it's clearing the stuff below the
468
00:31:25,890 --> 00:31:29,910
short term low. So everything has been cleared. So now, no
469
00:31:29,910 --> 00:31:33,090
one on the short term is holding a position, they would have
470
00:31:33,090 --> 00:31:36,030
to have their stock way back here. And then the market
471
00:31:36,030 --> 00:31:39,750
starts to do what it creates its downdraft, again, because
472
00:31:39,750 --> 00:31:45,960
what is in play, lower currencies, higher dollar. So we see
473
00:31:45,960 --> 00:31:51,210
it again, we have a low and a high rate in here. There's an
474
00:31:51,210 --> 00:31:54,150
imbalance, that's a fair value gap. So Southside delivery
475
00:31:54,150 --> 00:31:56,430
has been offered. So in this candle, it goes right back up
476
00:31:56,460 --> 00:32:00,330
inside the pocket of this high in this low. That right there
477
00:32:00,330 --> 00:32:03,000
is another shorting opportunity, you can get short there,
478
00:32:03,960 --> 00:32:07,560
you can place a stop loss above here and walk away, the
479
00:32:07,560 --> 00:32:13,920
market trades back up, trades deeper into this area, not by
480
00:32:13,920 --> 00:32:18,930
much above that. But you can see all the way to the point of
481
00:32:19,200 --> 00:32:23,220
this candle here. And it's gonna appreciate it. But this is
482
00:32:23,250 --> 00:32:29,070
where if you take the trades using this, you can suffer some
483
00:32:29,130 --> 00:32:32,880
time delay, and a little bit of drawdown. Like for instance,
484
00:32:32,880 --> 00:32:35,370
he sold short here, you'd have a little bit of drawdown on
485
00:32:35,370 --> 00:32:38,640
this candle, this candle this candle, this candle might got
486
00:32:38,730 --> 00:32:40,950
excited a little bit, they're thinking it's going to finally
487
00:32:40,950 --> 00:32:44,250
break but it goes all the way up to this level here doesn't
488
00:32:44,250 --> 00:32:47,790
completely fill it in yet. And then finally gives up the
489
00:32:47,790 --> 00:32:52,380
ghost and trades lower. See that. So all of this area here
490
00:32:52,740 --> 00:32:56,520
doesn't quite get filled, but then it breaks this low. When
491
00:32:56,520 --> 00:33:00,480
it does that, that's indicating that this right here is a
492
00:33:00,480 --> 00:33:04,170
really strong indication that we're going lower, and it's
493
00:33:04,170 --> 00:33:06,870
probably not going to come back up to this price level. And
494
00:33:06,870 --> 00:33:10,050
we're gonna probably see much more pronounced delivery on
495
00:33:10,050 --> 00:33:18,990
the downside. And scrunch this up. Market creates another
496
00:33:18,990 --> 00:33:23,490
run below this low here. So we have this low, and this high.
497
00:33:23,670 --> 00:33:26,730
So what's actually happening here, same thing prices going
498
00:33:26,730 --> 00:33:34,890
back up into this candle. Now here's a real gem, okay, this
499
00:33:34,890 --> 00:33:35,490
low
500
00:33:41,010 --> 00:33:50,070
and this high price has went down, gone up. And then down to
501
00:33:50,070 --> 00:33:54,060
this price point right there, you see that. So all of this
502
00:33:54,390 --> 00:33:57,510
is a balanced price range market has been delivered on the
503
00:33:57,510 --> 00:34:01,650
downside, then it's delivered on the upside, and it's down
504
00:34:01,650 --> 00:34:05,760
again. So when the market trades back up here, it's not
505
00:34:05,970 --> 00:34:11,370
listen, folks, this is really important. It is not support
506
00:34:11,370 --> 00:34:13,770
broken term resistance. That's what's going on here. That's
507
00:34:13,770 --> 00:34:17,250
not what that's not what happens. If you're looking for key
508
00:34:17,250 --> 00:34:21,210
support resistance levels. If you have this signature here,
509
00:34:21,390 --> 00:34:25,710
where it breaks through it then comes back that point where
510
00:34:25,710 --> 00:34:29,010
it does that then yes, your support resistance theories will
511
00:34:29,010 --> 00:34:31,950
work there. But whenever it doesn't have this and you're
512
00:34:31,950 --> 00:34:34,740
trying to find a old low and you're looking for it to be
513
00:34:34,740 --> 00:34:39,270
broken and you're looking for resistance. It's not going to
514
00:34:39,270 --> 00:34:43,080
work unless it has this. Okay, it's not going to happen. So
515
00:34:43,080 --> 00:34:45,120
no words What I mean by that if it starts to go a little bit
516
00:34:45,120 --> 00:34:47,760
lower stop say here and it starts another little candle here
517
00:34:47,760 --> 00:34:51,360
and goes a little bit lower and go lower. I would go back in
518
00:34:51,510 --> 00:34:54,360
the 90s and I would say okay, this is a support broken turn
519
00:34:54,360 --> 00:34:57,720
resistance and I would try to sell short and either it never
520
00:34:57,720 --> 00:35:00,210
went back up there or if it did, it went right on back. up
521
00:35:00,210 --> 00:35:02,580
inside the range, and I would lose. And I would walk away
522
00:35:02,580 --> 00:35:05,820
thinking this support resistance stuff doesn't work. For
523
00:35:05,820 --> 00:35:08,250
support resistance to work, it needs to have this little
524
00:35:08,250 --> 00:35:11,640
signature right there. Okay? It's an overshoot through that
525
00:35:11,670 --> 00:35:16,200
old low after it has shown a balanced price range. And
526
00:35:16,200 --> 00:35:18,270
again, a balanced price range is where price delivers on the
527
00:35:18,270 --> 00:35:23,160
downside, and the upside. So what do I mean by that? The
528
00:35:23,160 --> 00:35:30,000
market has offered time and delivery on the downside. So
529
00:35:30,000 --> 00:35:32,250
anyone that wants to sell with that movement, they had an
530
00:35:32,280 --> 00:35:35,340
opportunity to do so. But what about the buyers didn't
531
00:35:35,340 --> 00:35:38,550
really get a real good chance to buy at their at their price
532
00:35:38,550 --> 00:35:43,050
levels. So the market goes up, and allows that to take
533
00:35:43,050 --> 00:35:46,080
effect. Okay, but what's going on there, as this markets
534
00:35:46,080 --> 00:35:49,290
been going higher, anyone who wants to sell below these lows
535
00:35:49,380 --> 00:35:51,240
on a break, they haven't had the opportunity to do so
536
00:35:51,240 --> 00:35:53,850
because the market keeps going up? Well, they've been now
537
00:35:53,880 --> 00:35:59,640
given that opportunity here. See, that delivery of price is
538
00:35:59,640 --> 00:36:02,610
balanced back and forth. It's not buying and selling
539
00:36:02,610 --> 00:36:05,880
pressure, folks, it's not it's absolutely not. All of this
540
00:36:05,880 --> 00:36:08,730
is a narrative within the context of the market trading at
541
00:36:08,730 --> 00:36:12,840
117 40 level that I told you last week about on YouTube,
542
00:36:13,410 --> 00:36:16,140
it's public. I can't edit the video once it goes on your
543
00:36:16,140 --> 00:36:20,340
server. So right here, we have an opportunity sell off and
544
00:36:20,340 --> 00:36:25,560
now the market starts to cascade again lower. Here you have
545
00:36:25,560 --> 00:36:28,500
a Bear Flag. Look at that classic chart pattern and right
546
00:36:28,500 --> 00:36:34,740
into what price level is that 117 40. Now to get 117 40 it's
547
00:36:34,740 --> 00:36:38,010
got to go a little bit below that right? What's the low
548
00:36:40,200 --> 00:36:48,120
117 37. There's your spread. So what happened after it
549
00:36:48,120 --> 00:36:52,710
traded there? Did it rocket through that did dilly dally
550
00:36:52,710 --> 00:36:53,130
around.
551
00:36:59,070 --> 00:37:04,410
off to the races. Now, you know about this level last week,
552
00:37:05,520 --> 00:37:08,970
you knew about the weekly highs and the lows forming on
553
00:37:08,970 --> 00:37:10,950
Tuesday. So some of the time if it's bearish, it's going to
554
00:37:10,950 --> 00:37:18,600
create the high of the week on Tuesday. If you look at this
555
00:37:19,230 --> 00:37:25,830
chart here, and really take in what this outlined it's
556
00:37:25,830 --> 00:37:29,160
really hard to argue against these markets being
557
00:37:29,160 --> 00:37:33,960
manipulated. 100% controlled, absolutely predictable.
558
00:37:33,990 --> 00:37:39,360
Certainly. Rejection black, let's go to the hourly chart.
559
00:37:45,750 --> 00:37:49,800
Highest up close. That's what I'm highlighting there. It
560
00:37:49,800 --> 00:37:54,840
trades to that. And then rejects breaks this swing low. This
561
00:37:54,840 --> 00:37:58,140
is a breaker. Okay, rating here. And it's also your point of
562
00:37:58,140 --> 00:38:03,540
reference for market structure being broken. Bam. And then
563
00:38:03,540 --> 00:38:06,000
the narrative starts goes right to the level I told you it's
564
00:38:06,000 --> 00:38:14,220
gonna go to now Why 117 40? Let's go back over here. All the
565
00:38:14,220 --> 00:38:17,070
way back here. See all these lows? What's resting below
566
00:38:17,070 --> 00:38:24,840
that? Let me go back. See these lows, these lows, the lows,
567
00:38:26,340 --> 00:38:30,480
these lows. All of them have been reference points for
568
00:38:30,480 --> 00:38:35,460
trailed stop losses, what kind of stops, sell stops. Right
569
00:38:35,460 --> 00:38:41,100
in here. You see a series of down close candles that starts
570
00:38:41,670 --> 00:38:45,210
your bowl shorter block. There's a small little price action
571
00:38:45,240 --> 00:38:48,330
segment right in here. That's a gap. That's that fair value
572
00:38:48,330 --> 00:38:52,620
gap? You're trying to tell me? No, I'm telling you. I told
573
00:38:52,620 --> 00:38:58,020
you last week 117 40. That's the basis. So if we go to a
574
00:39:00,420 --> 00:39:07,230
four hour chart, what's this candle here as the last down
575
00:39:07,230 --> 00:39:10,500
close candle before this move up. This last down close
576
00:39:10,500 --> 00:39:15,900
candles high comes in at 117 41 and three pets. So if it's
577
00:39:15,900 --> 00:39:18,480
going to reach down in here, I'm going to round it to the
578
00:39:18,480 --> 00:39:25,050
nearest round 10 level 117 40. We have liquidity below here.
579
00:39:25,980 --> 00:39:29,670
And here. And I'm BAM we tagged through it and there's your
580
00:39:29,670 --> 00:39:30,000
run.
581
00:39:31,980 --> 00:39:33,570
They're predictable.
582
00:39:34,590 --> 00:39:37,020
I'm on record even with my mentorship group that I was
583
00:39:37,020 --> 00:39:39,570
looking for that run. We were looking for that last week as
584
00:39:39,570 --> 00:39:44,160
well. So but you have to have the market provide all those
585
00:39:44,160 --> 00:39:51,570
things with time. First. That's day of week time of day and
586
00:39:51,600 --> 00:39:54,720
within a narrative, which is what bearish foreign currency
587
00:39:55,200 --> 00:39:59,340
bullish dollar in the market will give you what you're
588
00:39:59,340 --> 00:40:04,200
looking for. But you can't just simply say, every upclose
589
00:40:04,200 --> 00:40:06,600
gallon, put it down, move every down, close count up move.
590
00:40:06,660 --> 00:40:08,790
And that's all you got to do. Now, there's internal rings
591
00:40:08,790 --> 00:40:10,920
liquidity, and there's external range liquidity that helps
592
00:40:10,920 --> 00:40:14,490
you frame a narrative. And that's what mentorship is with
593
00:40:14,490 --> 00:40:17,790
me. It's me guiding you through almost three decades of
594
00:40:17,790 --> 00:40:20,580
experience, and things that I haven't even put out in video
595
00:40:20,940 --> 00:40:24,270
lessons yet, because they have to be introduced gradually,
596
00:40:24,360 --> 00:40:27,330
not because I'm dangling a carrot, not because I'm teasing,
597
00:40:27,510 --> 00:40:30,030
not because I'm making it impossible for anyone to ever
598
00:40:30,030 --> 00:40:34,140
learn it. There's so many things, there's so many things
599
00:40:34,140 --> 00:40:36,750
that you need to know, because these algorithms, they're
600
00:40:36,750 --> 00:40:41,490
highly, highly technical. And there's many macros that they
601
00:40:41,490 --> 00:40:44,670
go into. And you have to know specific things to see what
602
00:40:44,670 --> 00:40:50,400
they will do at certain conditions in the marketplace. So
603
00:40:53,250 --> 00:40:57,930
I'm not sure what you took from this, but it is absolutely
604
00:40:57,960 --> 00:41:02,160
what I teach. And I want to go back into that 15 minute
605
00:41:02,160 --> 00:41:07,320
timeframe. And we'll scrub up here a little bit like that.
606
00:41:07,740 --> 00:41:09,090
add annotations back.
607
00:41:15,060 --> 00:41:18,540
Okay, and now I'm going to pull up the overbought oversold
608
00:41:18,570 --> 00:41:21,600
indicator. Now when I was trading in back in the 90s, Larry
609
00:41:21,600 --> 00:41:25,470
Williams was my hero. And in fact, he really still is. He
610
00:41:25,470 --> 00:41:27,690
was my original mentor, even though I was really introduced
611
00:41:27,690 --> 00:41:31,770
to trading by my uncle didn't really learn anything really
612
00:41:31,770 --> 00:41:35,340
from him, obviously, not to be disrespectful. But he, he put
613
00:41:35,340 --> 00:41:37,440
it in my ear, but I really wasn't interested back when I was
614
00:41:37,440 --> 00:41:42,900
16. But in 1992, the first mentor I had was Ken Roberts, and
615
00:41:42,900 --> 00:41:48,750
I lost money. So I have to give credit, because that course
616
00:41:48,750 --> 00:41:51,000
that I purchased put me on a mailing list for Larry Williams
617
00:41:52,230 --> 00:41:55,710
material. And then that was my real mentor. Because the
618
00:41:55,710 --> 00:41:58,890
things I learned from Larry actually made money. It went
619
00:41:58,890 --> 00:42:01,590
into my account, whereas the first trade I took with the
620
00:42:01,590 --> 00:42:04,590
things I learned from Ken Roberts, 50% of my money was taken
621
00:42:04,590 --> 00:42:08,970
in the first trade overnight with an orange juice option. So
622
00:42:09,180 --> 00:42:13,680
you all heard the story before. Anyway, I like the idea of a
623
00:42:13,680 --> 00:42:17,100
percent are still if I had to talk about a overbought
624
00:42:17,100 --> 00:42:19,920
oversold indicator if I was going to do that, this would be
625
00:42:19,920 --> 00:42:23,370
the one I would use because it's it makes sense to me. But
626
00:42:23,400 --> 00:42:27,870
if you look at the percent are we're overbought, because
627
00:42:27,870 --> 00:42:30,930
we're above the midpoint of this area here. This should be
628
00:42:30,930 --> 00:42:34,440
overbought reading and percent are it is this should be a
629
00:42:34,440 --> 00:42:40,020
robot. It is this should be overbought, it is this should be
630
00:42:40,020 --> 00:42:43,290
overbought, it is I don't need an indicator to tell me we're
631
00:42:43,290 --> 00:42:46,110
overbought, because I'm looking at the range that matters
632
00:42:46,110 --> 00:42:50,460
most. And then clearly, within that context and a narrative
633
00:42:50,460 --> 00:42:53,940
that I'm bearish, Euro bullish dollar, I have a target,
634
00:42:53,940 --> 00:42:57,690
where's it going to draw to 117 40? You knew it last week.
635
00:42:59,760 --> 00:43:03,750
On Thursday's video, of last week, I talked about it. I said
636
00:43:03,750 --> 00:43:06,420
that's beyond the scope of this discussion, because I was
637
00:43:06,420 --> 00:43:10,320
teaching you this price run here and down into the market
638
00:43:10,320 --> 00:43:13,770
maker sell model. But that's not a short term trade, that's
639
00:43:13,800 --> 00:43:18,300
a day trade, a short term trade, we have to use this high
640
00:43:18,510 --> 00:43:21,990
and this low because now we have a new dealing range. So the
641
00:43:21,990 --> 00:43:24,690
market trades up into that range here not taking the high
642
00:43:24,690 --> 00:43:27,900
out. It's just moving into a deeper premium. And then what
643
00:43:27,900 --> 00:43:33,240
happens the algorithm on Tuesday, sets too high the week pan
644
00:43:33,900 --> 00:43:37,530
seeks to lower the week that I gave you last week. That was
645
00:43:37,530 --> 00:43:40,560
my target. We've been looking for that. Okay, traded to it.
646
00:43:40,740 --> 00:43:45,240
Now, what can happen from here? Well, let's take this off
647
00:43:45,240 --> 00:43:50,340
real quick. It could very easily trade on higher and take
648
00:43:50,340 --> 00:43:53,790
these highs out and maybe even go up above this. It could do
649
00:43:53,790 --> 00:43:58,290
that. I don't care. When I say I'm looking for the weekly
650
00:43:58,290 --> 00:44:02,340
high in the low. Sometimes it is the actual highest highs or
651
00:44:02,340 --> 00:44:05,340
lows low of the week. But look at the reaction. If you're
652
00:44:05,340 --> 00:44:09,270
short. Okay, say you short here. Do you feel comfortable
653
00:44:09,270 --> 00:44:14,550
riding all the back that far? If you do, God bless you.
654
00:44:14,940 --> 00:44:18,120
That's that's real conviction. I'm not interested in
655
00:44:18,120 --> 00:44:22,020
something like that. So if I'm trying to get short here or
656
00:44:22,020 --> 00:44:25,470
up in here, I'm aiming for this and once it hits that I'm
657
00:44:25,470 --> 00:44:30,720
done, why? Why not hope for more ICT? I thought you were
658
00:44:31,740 --> 00:44:36,030
real guru. Well, this is the target I'm looking for. And
659
00:44:36,030 --> 00:44:38,970
this is likely to occur once it gets to that level. That's
660
00:44:38,970 --> 00:44:43,530
why I want 117 40 because I don't want to ride this out.
661
00:44:43,560 --> 00:44:46,950
Because the more it keeps going higher, the more likely it
662
00:44:46,950 --> 00:44:50,190
is to trade against the liquidity above here and now these
663
00:44:50,220 --> 00:44:54,000
equal highs. And then if it goes above here then unwinds the
664
00:44:54,000 --> 00:44:56,430
whole narrative that I used to build the context around that
665
00:44:56,430 --> 00:45:00,330
117 40 level. So let's get this off because this is Last
666
00:45:00,330 --> 00:45:05,490
week, and looking at, again, price action like this naked,
667
00:45:05,520 --> 00:45:11,190
it feels like it's it's noise, it's chaos. But everything in
668
00:45:11,190 --> 00:45:14,910
here has a reason for it occurring. And I teach this. This
669
00:45:14,910 --> 00:45:17,550
is not this is not a new introduction, nothing new I gave
670
00:45:17,550 --> 00:45:21,570
was defining the interbank feeling range, and what makes it
671
00:45:21,570 --> 00:45:25,950
such. And in summary, you want to look at where the most
672
00:45:25,950 --> 00:45:28,560
recent dealing range has traded? Did it take out by side
673
00:45:28,560 --> 00:45:31,620
liquidity, their take out sell side liquidity, it need, you
674
00:45:31,620 --> 00:45:36,570
need to find those two most recent day markers. And once you
675
00:45:36,570 --> 00:45:39,600
know that, that's your current dealing range on the
676
00:45:39,600 --> 00:45:44,190
interbank level. For any timeframe, any timeframe. Okay,
677
00:45:44,580 --> 00:45:47,550
using a 15 minute timeframe. That's like my bellwether, I
678
00:45:47,550 --> 00:45:51,180
can find a lot of setups with a 15 minute chart. And
679
00:45:52,530 --> 00:45:55,500
if you use an hourly chart, you'll come up with a different
680
00:45:55,500 --> 00:45:58,680
dealing range. So don't think well what happens if I look at
681
00:45:58,680 --> 00:46:00,690
the four hour chart, and then that doesn't look like it does
682
00:46:00,690 --> 00:46:03,510
this and you trade, the timeframe that you're looking at?
683
00:46:04,560 --> 00:46:08,010
This is the timeframe I used. The narrative was already in
684
00:46:08,010 --> 00:46:12,630
motion, modest higher prices and dollar, lower foreign
685
00:46:12,630 --> 00:46:17,670
currency prices. And this is her dealing range. Okay, so you
686
00:46:17,670 --> 00:46:20,580
use last week's information to tell you what this week's got
687
00:46:20,580 --> 00:46:24,600
to do. And this weekly profile, I even shared that publicly.
688
00:46:25,590 --> 00:46:28,560
bearish week, okay, Tuesday's high of The Week, 7% of time,
689
00:46:29,340 --> 00:46:31,770
and you can get a really good cell signal on Wednesday.
690
00:46:32,460 --> 00:46:39,000
There you go. Folks, listen. I hate to sound like I'm
691
00:46:39,030 --> 00:46:43,170
twisting everyone's arm. Okay, but I get a plethora of
692
00:46:43,200 --> 00:46:46,680
emails from people that say the markets are not manipulated,
693
00:46:46,980 --> 00:46:49,620
you're talking lies, there is no algorithm, there's this
694
00:46:49,620 --> 00:46:53,640
than this, this? Listen, I'm only going to provide the
695
00:46:53,640 --> 00:46:56,160
evidence. you wrestle with that, because you're not going to
696
00:46:56,160 --> 00:46:58,620
convince me because this is what I used to call the markets.
697
00:46:59,130 --> 00:47:02,190
This is what I do to engage price. This is how I call the
698
00:47:02,190 --> 00:47:05,790
targets. Find the logic of anything I'm showing you here and
699
00:47:05,790 --> 00:47:11,310
anywhere else. It doesn't exist. It does not exist. Because
700
00:47:11,310 --> 00:47:18,090
this is self reliant. It's stands on its own. I don't need
701
00:47:18,090 --> 00:47:20,220
to defend. That's why I tell everybody go through my videos,
702
00:47:20,760 --> 00:47:24,390
and then wrestle with it. Because you're either gonna walk
703
00:47:24,390 --> 00:47:27,330
away thinking this is too much work. Okay, great. You didn't
704
00:47:28,020 --> 00:47:33,150
debunk it. Or you're gonna say, Oh, my goodness. This is
705
00:47:33,150 --> 00:47:37,620
exactly what's going on. Hello, conversion. And that's all
706
00:47:37,620 --> 00:47:41,190
it takes to stick your foot in this web, and you'll never
707
00:47:41,190 --> 00:47:46,710
get out of it alive. Period. Once you see it, you cannot
708
00:47:46,710 --> 00:47:54,150
unsee it and every week, every day, and it won't stop. Until
709
00:47:54,150 --> 00:47:56,190
next time. I wish you good luck and good trading.