021-ict-tw-spaces-20221110-ICT-CPI-Whisperings-original
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2022-12-29 08:30
Outline
00:32 - Good morning, everyone!
06:04 - Why you have to understand the economic calendar and the effects of liquidity -.
13:17 - What’s on the hourly chart?
20:23 - Playing devil's advocate for a moment.
27:45 - US 500 charts not doing anything for me.
32:25 - If you’re wrong, it ends you.
38:05 - What are you looking for in the US 500?
43:53 - Do we go higher and start working towards a higher close on the day? Or do we work back lower?
49:14 - Why you need to be comfortable with missing moves -.
56:25 - If the fair value gap fails, we will revisit and reprice the candle.
01:01:37 - What is the fair value gap?
01:05:33 - Buy side imbalance vs. sell side inefficiency.
01:11:53 - How do you get past fear of missing out or how do you engage beyond getting something wrong?
01:20:09 - Daily chart of candles.
01:24:14 - What’s the fair value? -.
01:29:37 - What’s a fair value gap? How long does it last?
01:37:22 - The candle at 935 should be an up-close candle.
01:42:07 - What is the technical debt?
01:46:58 - The One Minute Chart -.
01:52:33 - Looking at the high end of the current high.
01:57:23 - Give yourself permission to pay the bills with something.
02:01:49 - The importance of following price action -.
02:08:32 - What’s going to happen if this doesn’t pan out.
02:15:44 - What’s the difference between proof of concept and authorship?
02:21:43 - The six o’clock news.
02:29:04 - How do you know if the daily high or low is going to be this?
Transcription
| 1 | 00:00:32,070 --> 00:00:40,530 | ICT: Good morning. Good morning. So I had a little bit of difficulty here loading up trading view, not sure what was going on, but it was saying something |
| 2 | 00:00:40,530 --> 00:00:50,430 | somewhere, somehow isn't working right. And they said, keep hitting the homepage now doing it, but it wouldn't, it wouldn't change. But it appears to be running, |
| 3 | 00:00:50,430 --> 00:01:00,960 | but it's extremely slow. So if you bear with me, I'm opening up charts. All fresh, I haven't done anything in advance. That way, it's kind of like |
| 4 | 00:01:02,460 --> 00:01:03,270 | on the fly, |
| 5 | 00:01:04,830 --> 00:01:09,870 | he would be so kind as to let me know, you can hear me, I'm going to check my Twitter feed |
| 6 | 00:01:11,220 --> 00:01:13,320 | on my laptop that's sitting in front of me here. |
| 7 | 00:01:16,050 --> 00:01:19,590 | You can give me a five by five. That way I can move on. |
| 8 | 00:01:22,860 --> 00:02:02,190 | Begin my boring, job learning session. Thank you, Patrick. And Peyton. Thank you. Alright, so I'm gonna |
| 9 | 00:02:05,790 --> 00:02:17,100 | talk about what I'm doing. That way you're doing it on your own charts. Now, some of you some is the volume, okay? Because I have it sitting on an ottoman in |
| 10 | 00:02:17,100 --> 00:02:20,550 | front of me, the phone sitting in front of me? Is the volume loud enough for you? |
| 11 | 00:02:26,010 --> 00:02:35,370 | Awesome, thank you, Chris. So they kind of like walk you through what I'm doing here. And you're probably maybe some of your pissing and moaning thing thinking, |
| 12 | 00:02:35,400 --> 00:02:45,300 | why don't you just go on YouTube and do a live stream. I don't want to do that. And my charts are not necessarily going to be in agreement with yours. So what I |
| 13 | 00:02:45,300 --> 00:02:56,910 | mean by that, I don't look at us 500 I don't look at us 30. I don't look at us 100 CFDs. But I know there's a lot of you that look at those markets. And you |
| 14 | 00:02:56,910 --> 00:03:07,830 | may or may not have access to E Mini s&p live data, which in my opinion, is an inexpensive cost. If you're going to be even considering doing it, you should be |
| 15 | 00:03:07,830 --> 00:03:19,140 | doing it. You're paying for it. It's a I guess it's a tuition cost to learn how to do this. And to me, I think that you know, it's a good market. It's really |
| 16 | 00:03:19,200 --> 00:03:32,670 | strong. It's technically sound has lots of volatility and such but I know some of you are looking at the US 500 us one R Us 30 CFDs. And I'm going to try to |
| 17 | 00:03:32,670 --> 00:03:47,700 | kind of give my observations about that in concert with the EMA ES. So what I'm doing is on my trading view, I'm creating a split screen so on the left hand |
| 18 | 00:03:47,700 --> 00:04:01,530 | side is going to be us 500 And the currency Colm ops options, so if you go up to your trading view, this is going to be free real time for anyone that pulls this |
| 19 | 00:04:01,530 --> 00:04:14,760 | up. But on a symbol search window, upper left hand corner trading view you're gonna put in U S 500. And when you pull that up, it's going to give you two |
| 20 | 00:04:14,760 --> 00:04:27,690 | options currency.com and capital CLM. My Chart is going to be on currency.com Okay, so that we were looking at the same thing and it is presently looking at |
| 21 | 00:04:27,690 --> 00:04:28,740 | the hourly chart. |
| 22 | 00:04:29,490 --> 00:04:30,240 | Okay, so |
| 23 | 00:04:33,780 --> 00:04:45,240 | that's done for now. And on the right hand side for those that have the ability to have both es real time and want to watch us 500 CPI numbers hit the market |
| 24 | 00:04:45,240 --> 00:05:02,550 | real time. You're welcome to do that on the right hand side chart on pulling up es letters zipper zipper 2022 That pulls up to the summer contract for ES And |
| 25 | 00:05:02,580 --> 00:05:06,390 | I'm going to, again plot that on an hourly chart. |
| 26 | 00:05:08,250 --> 00:05:25,200 | I'll get into why I'm using that timeframe in a moment. So there's something while you're looking at it. And let's see, to |
| 27 | 00:05:30,360 --> 00:05:39,870 | all my annotations going, naked chart. Skinny Dip and what I see T on CPI. |
| 28 | 00:05:43,770 --> 00:05:44,730 | And |
| 29 | 00:05:46,350 --> 00:05:57,480 | I will not be looking at NASDAQ. And I'm not looking at gold or anything like that, want to note it too, because you only need to watch one market today to |
| 30 | 00:05:57,480 --> 00:06:15,240 | understand the dangers of not knowing what you're doing. And how you can get hurt really bad. Alright, so now if you look at the hour hourly chart on es on |
| 31 | 00:06:15,240 --> 00:06:23,010 | the right hand side, for those that are able to split the screen, you may not have that ability, because I think it's a feature you have to pay for. I don't |
| 32 | 00:06:23,010 --> 00:06:31,830 | hold Don't hold me that I don't know for certain if that's true or not because I can't remember. But the trading view option if you can split your screen, that's |
| 33 | 00:06:31,830 --> 00:06:43,170 | fine. If not, I think maybe you can open up two windows and put them side by side. But either way, on my right hand start I have an hourly ES. And if you |
| 34 | 00:06:43,170 --> 00:07:01,170 | look at where we're at, at the moment, the market price for ES is 3765 and a half. And on the left hand side, my chart for us 500. That's basically tracking |
| 35 | 00:07:02,190 --> 00:07:10,350 | the equivalent through a CFD, which we can't trade in the US legally you get to trade a futures market. And then there's offshore brokers, I don't deal with any |
| 36 | 00:07:10,350 --> 00:07:20,940 | of that stuff. But I know some of you are outside the states and this is what you're you're reduced to you have to do simply this. That price for the hourly, |
| 37 | 00:07:21,180 --> 00:07:36,720 | US 500. Again, using currency Colm bead on TradingView, its price right now is 37 56.4. Point 7.9 so that we can get a feel for where we're at. So the |
| 38 | 00:07:36,720 --> 00:07:49,440 | differences between es live futures markets es 3764 and a half versus 3757. or there abouts, there's a little bit of discrepancy. So they're never really |
| 39 | 00:07:49,440 --> 00:08:02,250 | marked to market live immediately the same for both markets the same time, which, you know, that might be a sticking point. And in the past where I've |
| 40 | 00:08:02,250 --> 00:08:12,600 | talked about markets like this, I made reference to a price level one of the markets when I was referring to earlier, so I got disoriented, doing it. So if |
| 41 | 00:08:12,600 --> 00:08:25,710 | you're going to be doing anything with this in trading the index futures or trading us 500, there really isn't any advantage of having both of them up, |
| 42 | 00:08:25,740 --> 00:08:37,950 | you're going to trade one, pick one and that's the way you deal with it. There is no need for the daily chart today. Because everything we're going to be |
| 43 | 00:08:37,950 --> 00:08:46,560 | utilizing for our study and liquidity and before I get into this, okay, this is the part where you have to be really paying attention because it's easy to think |
| 44 | 00:08:46,560 --> 00:08:56,370 | okay, ICTs given our signals today, no. Okay, this is not what this is. This is really just to illustrate why you have to understand the economic calendar and |
| 45 | 00:08:56,400 --> 00:09:09,390 | the effects of liquidity and how the markets will, abruptly repriced, to a specific liquidity area. If you look at your hourly chart, we're going to do the |
| 46 | 00:09:09,390 --> 00:09:21,120 | US 501st Because I want to get that out of the way. And then my focus is going to be on Yes. Okay. So that way, we can look at the reference points as closely |
| 47 | 00:09:21,120 --> 00:09:31,260 | as we can in terms of agreement. So we know the liquidity points, I'm looking at what I think might unfold today, and I might be wrong. Okay, but here's what I |
| 48 | 00:09:31,260 --> 00:09:44,970 | want you to do. I want you to be in a paper trading account. I want you to push a button. Okay. On a paper trading account, that means it's not a Live account. |
| 49 | 00:09:46,290 --> 00:09:56,460 | I want you to feel what it feels like to be in there trying to push the button and TradingView probably isn't gonna let you enter not even on a demo. Okay, and |
| 50 | 00:09:56,730 --> 00:10:12,420 | your live broker will be equivalent. They always, they always mess with the ability to get in a market move like this. It's so aggressive, and highly |
| 51 | 00:10:12,420 --> 00:10:21,780 | manipulated. If you go into these types of days, thinking, unless you're going in minutes, you know, you're right before the reports released, and you're |
| 52 | 00:10:21,780 --> 00:10:31,500 | gambling, and that is reckless, it's not advised that's really stupid to do that. If you push a button that, in this market move this morning, with a live |
| 53 | 00:10:31,500 --> 00:10:42,510 | account, I'm telling you, you're going to regret it. Don't do it, okay, what we're doing is we're doing an interactive study, looking at how prices right |
| 54 | 00:10:42,510 --> 00:10:51,390 | now, where the liquidity pools are, I'm gonna go over in a moment. And then what they go for and how fast it gets there. And what it does, once it goes to them, |
| 55 | 00:10:51,450 --> 00:11:03,090 | okay, I do not have an interest in pushing a button in my live accounts, I have no interest in doing that I will not be doing. So if I'm not doing it, please, |
| 56 | 00:11:03,630 --> 00:11:14,820 | please listen to me, do not use this as an invitation to go in and push a Live account button and hurt yourself. Okay? If what we outlined today, pans out and |
| 57 | 00:11:14,820 --> 00:11:24,270 | it's, you know, precise or whatever, it's just an experience for you to log in your journal. And you observe that lie that's experienced that you, you want to |
| 58 | 00:11:24,270 --> 00:11:30,810 | be doing this every time there's a high impact or medium pack news driver, you want to do what I'm going to do today, okay. And if you do it every single day, |
| 59 | 00:11:31,140 --> 00:11:40,320 | studying how the market does these types of things, that experience is going to build over time, and you'll start seeing things that my lessons and my videos |
| 60 | 00:11:40,710 --> 00:11:51,870 | won't fully put you into style of trading that you can't really understand yet. And what I mean by that is, you're not going to know what it is you're doing as |
| 61 | 00:11:51,870 --> 00:12:00,030 | a trader until you discover seeing it over and over again in the charts. And you're probably thinking, Well, why don't we all see the same thing. You're all |
| 62 | 00:12:00,030 --> 00:12:12,780 | looking at different timeframes, different markets, and your opinion and your personality is gonna vary across all different cultures and demographics, you're |
| 63 | 00:12:12,780 --> 00:12:19,410 | all going to be wanting to do something different. And that's the wonderful thing about the tools I've given you, you can carve out your own niche and be |
| 64 | 00:12:19,410 --> 00:12:28,290 | unique. And still use my concepts and feel good that it's yours. It's your model, you built it yourself. That way you can feel confident about going |
| 65 | 00:12:28,290 --> 00:12:36,540 | forward and not leaning on me through codependence, you don't want to do that you don't want to deal with any mentor, you don't want to have any chain to |
| 66 | 00:12:36,540 --> 00:12:43,530 | their product. You don't want to have any chain to their signal service, you don't want to have any kind of tethering at all for their advice or their |
| 67 | 00:12:43,530 --> 00:12:53,130 | opinion. You want to be an independent mind going in making your own decisions. And if they're good, you take all the glory for that. If it's bad, you eat that. |
| 68 | 00:12:54,150 --> 00:13:03,210 | That's the way it is okay? If you don't have that mindset, or if you can't cultivate that trading is not going to work out for you. So with all that risk |
| 69 | 00:13:03,210 --> 00:13:11,220 | disclaimer such out of the way, and I apologize if the board does socks off of you. But I have to make sure that the folks that are coming in here aren't going |
| 70 | 00:13:11,220 --> 00:13:22,350 | to think that hey, is casino time. Let's get in there and risk at all. No, please don't do that. Okay. All right. So now, us 500 On the hourly chart. If |
| 71 | 00:13:22,350 --> 00:13:38,400 | you have as much as seen, what's the date on that? You go back and look at the 28th of October. Okay, you'll see about the 1600. Now my time is UTC negative |
| 72 | 00:13:38,400 --> 00:13:53,430 | five. Okay, so that way, you know when I'm looking at timelines, and the candle I'm looking at are us 500 On the hourly chart at the 1600 hour on Friday, |
| 73 | 00:13:53,730 --> 00:14:08,160 | October 2820 22. That high and then just to the right of it a few candles over on November 1 at eight o'clock in the morning. That highest slightly higher than |
| 74 | 00:14:08,160 --> 00:14:21,750 | that one prior to it. Okay, so we have relative equal highs there. We broke down took out the low on the 10 o'clock hour on October 31. Now, if you're |
| 75 | 00:14:21,750 --> 00:14:28,530 | complaining about distance, I wish he would just show a chart. This is how you're going to do it. If you can't navigate based on what I'm talking about, |
| 76 | 00:14:28,770 --> 00:14:37,560 | well to time, the timeframe you're not going to do well trading anyway. So this helps you feel confident that you're doing it with your own charts, your own |
| 77 | 00:14:37,560 --> 00:14:51,930 | scheme of colors, your your layout, everything but it should be a naked chart. I want you to notice how that rally up on Wednesday, November 2 2020 to 1400 |
| 78 | 00:14:52,110 --> 00:15:05,730 | Candle round all the way up to trade into that small little Faraday gap that made the higher high On November 1, we create an optimal trade entry and it |
| 79 | 00:15:05,730 --> 00:15:26,160 | broke down aggressively took out the low, formed on October 22. That Thursday at 1600 hours, we traded down on November 3 made that low and then we failed to go |
| 80 | 00:15:26,160 --> 00:15:39,480 | any lower. And so we tried 123 times to make a lower low. And there's lots of sell side liquidity resting rate below that November 3, low. So I want you to |
| 81 | 00:15:39,480 --> 00:15:45,150 | take a horizontal line and drop that on that low. |
| 82 | 00:15:49,110 --> 00:16:00,270 | So that way we know going forward, what am I expecting this morning, I'm of the opinion that we're going below that low. Now, I'm not pushing a button. I'm not |
| 83 | 00:16:00,270 --> 00:16:09,330 | risking money. I'm not taking a trade. I'm sharing my opinion as to why in a moment, but that's, that's where I usually put that little eyeball icon that |
| 84 | 00:16:09,360 --> 00:16:19,770 | trading View offers. I'm placing it right now returning to my chart. There's lows. Okay, so I believe that we're likely to see a trade down here in the same |
| 85 | 00:16:19,800 --> 00:16:36,660 | hourly chart. From that low that was formed on November 3, we traded up to the high formed on November 8, of 2022 to 10 o'clock in the morning, our made that |
| 86 | 00:16:36,660 --> 00:16:50,430 | Hi there. And then we've had a shift in market structure that took out the low. On November 8, of 2022, at three o'clock in the morning, that low was taken out |
| 87 | 00:16:50,490 --> 00:17:04,770 | on the candle of November 8, at 1400 hour, then we traded back up into that city I talked about yesterday, and we broke down. Now we have a small little bear |
| 88 | 00:17:04,770 --> 00:17:13,680 | flag. Okay, this is what retail seeing right now. There's a bear flag where the market has dropped. And went below the lows I talked about yesterday and the low |
| 89 | 00:17:13,680 --> 00:17:26,910 | specifically is November 7, at three o'clock in the morning, that low. We swept below that and we've consolidated. Now if you look at the 3780 and again, we're |
| 90 | 00:17:26,910 --> 00:17:41,610 | looking at the US 500 hourly chart. If you look at the low when the candle of 1100. On November 9, Wednesday's trading, okay, that low and the high of the |
| 91 | 00:17:41,610 --> 00:17:48,390 | candle. At 1400, you'll see that there's a fair value gap right there. I want you to note that. |
| 92 | 00:17:51,990 --> 00:17:53,370 | Okay, so there's going to be |
| 93 | 00:17:55,140 --> 00:18:07,200 | a small little fair value gap. That's approximately and I'll share my chart after we've done this, this is kind of like a test where you, your charts should |
| 94 | 00:18:07,200 --> 00:18:17,550 | look real close to mine. Do not share them. Don't post them. Don't try to be the first one. Just let me say this right now. It's irritating to me when people in |
| 95 | 00:18:17,550 --> 00:18:27,060 | the comment section or they reply first. That's annoying to me. Don't try to be the first to share your charts. Okay, right now it's interactive. We haven't |
| 96 | 00:18:27,060 --> 00:18:35,970 | even completely covered everything yet. But when we're done, and I close the session, share your chart, because I'm going to share mine at noon. That way you |
| 97 | 00:18:35,970 --> 00:18:43,770 | can compare and contrast what you've done listening to me and observing price. That way, if you're wrong, you'll learn from it. If you're right, it just feels |
| 98 | 00:18:43,770 --> 00:18:44,280 | good doing it. |
| 99 | 00:18:45,780 --> 00:18:46,800 | It feels good to do it. |
| 100 | 00:18:47,280 --> 00:19:02,040 | So we have a smaller fair value gap. And look at that low on the ninth of November, at 10 o'clock in the morning, at that low. That's essentially just |
| 101 | 00:19:02,040 --> 00:19:12,780 | about midpoint of that fair value gap. So it might want to revisit that. If it spikes up there. I'm thinking this is what I'm expecting. I'm expecting price to |
| 102 | 00:19:12,990 --> 00:19:32,670 | jump up into that fair value gap, touch the very minimum of 37 75.3. That should be your candle high on November 9 at 1400. And as much as but it could color |
| 103 | 00:19:32,670 --> 00:19:42,510 | outside the lines here. This is why I don't like to trade this before happens but the low of 3786 on the candle at noon, November 9. Okay, so that's your fair |
| 104 | 00:19:42,510 --> 00:19:56,790 | value gap. I'm thinking that we could run up into that. Then it drops down for the sell side liquidity below 3694. Overnight was 36 94.7. Okay. So that's what |
| 105 | 00:19:56,790 --> 00:20:06,600 | I'm expecting. That's what I'm anticipating. I think that is a probable profile for today for the CPI number. The problem with this is, and you probably have |
| 106 | 00:20:06,600 --> 00:20:19,680 | been seeing this, if you've been studying the CPI number, new this year, the CPI number just comes out and it's just like a straight line. It's like, okay, we |
| 107 | 00:20:19,680 --> 00:20:30,330 | were here, and now we're way down here. That's how fast it can happen. That's why it's very, very dangerous. So let's play devil's advocate for a moment. |
| 108 | 00:20:30,510 --> 00:20:38,610 | Okay, let's just say I'm right. And I'm not suggesting I'm going to because I don't believe that anybody should be taking this advice. We're studying this, |
| 109 | 00:20:38,640 --> 00:20:47,970 | okay? If I firmly believed that I was going to make money doing this, and I could enter it. I'd be doing a trade, I'm not, I'm not even pushing a demo. I'm |
| 110 | 00:20:47,970 --> 00:20:58,230 | not doing that, I want you to do that. Okay, I want you to feel what it feels like to be in this in an after you push the button, I want you to think about it |
| 111 | 00:20:58,230 --> 00:21:11,280 | being real. Think about what it would feel like, the anxiety or the exhilaration of whatever happens in the marketplace. Okay? I want you to feel that. But also |
| 112 | 00:21:11,280 --> 00:21:20,160 | soon as the number comes out, and you see your market chart, move around, I want you to try to press a button and see how long it takes for you ever get a |
| 113 | 00:21:20,160 --> 00:21:30,600 | confirmed fill on your paper trading account. Because you see all these folks out there, they'll show you that they got in on the very one minute candle near |
| 114 | 00:21:30,600 --> 00:21:42,600 | the high. Wait for the CPI number drops. That's bullshit. Okay, that's not happening. It ain't happening. Okay, you're not getting filled. So in a perfect |
| 115 | 00:21:42,600 --> 00:21:50,130 | world, say it wasn't a number that comes to market like CPI, I would take this trade on any other medium or high impact news driver, I would wait for it to |
| 116 | 00:21:50,130 --> 00:21:59,460 | trade up in that fair value gap. I'd use that as a shorting opportunity. And then I would look for it to run down to 3694 50. That's what I would look for. |
| 117 | 00:21:59,730 --> 00:22:09,900 | Okay. If I'm wrong, and it completely blows out that fair value gap, then I'm, I'm wrong. And there you go. And you know why I don't want to trade these |
| 118 | 00:22:09,900 --> 00:22:16,980 | markets. But if I'm right, it's not me, patting myself on the back, I'm not going to champion it. I'm not going to be doing any kind of peacocking. But I |
| 119 | 00:22:16,980 --> 00:22:25,440 | want you to understand how fast this market will move. And I only got like six minutes to get the rest of this off. But I'm showing you where I think it's |
| 120 | 00:22:25,440 --> 00:22:34,500 | going to go. I'm cosigned there's there's no side B to this. There's no scribble line, that's going to give me a bullish scenario. I think it only goes up to |
| 121 | 00:22:34,500 --> 00:22:43,890 | skidding that fair baguette if at all. I mean, I didn't do that. But if it does, I would think that it would aggressively reprice down below that 3694 50 level. |
| 122 | 00:22:44,010 --> 00:22:55,710 | Okay. And now, the easy part for ES The only thing you're going to be doing is looking at the US 500 Everything I just outlined your chart, while the prices |
| 123 | 00:22:55,710 --> 00:23:02,370 | don't agree exactly. The relative equal lows that were formed on the third of November and the |
| 124 | 00:23:04,230 --> 00:23:06,030 | what is that? This |
| 125 | 00:23:06,780 --> 00:23:18,630 | fourth of november eight o'clock in the morning, those relative equal lows. So that liquidity pool is the same on ES. And the fair value gap exists the same on |
| 126 | 00:23:18,840 --> 00:23:29,970 | the ES one hour chart. Okay, so I'm thinking slightly higher, if it can run up into the fair value gap and then crash down for the sell side. Once it gets that |
| 127 | 00:23:29,970 --> 00:23:39,420 | sell side? I'm interested in seeing what it does that at that moment. So I'm not suggesting that I knew what it's going to do. Beyond that. The only thing we're |
| 128 | 00:23:39,420 --> 00:23:48,390 | observing, and this is how I frame a trade. I'm not trying to go in and try to do like with my examples, you'll see me do a session where I'll say, Okay, this |
| 129 | 00:23:48,390 --> 00:23:56,520 | is this is where I think the market would go. And I'll point to us and you know, this level, what I'm saying is, that's my bias, because if it's above the market |
| 130 | 00:23:56,520 --> 00:24:05,850 | price, that means I'm bullish for that session. Okay, that New York session or a pm session, whatever it is that I'm referring to the next session that we're in |
| 131 | 00:24:05,850 --> 00:24:12,750 | are about to begin, that's the next one I'm looking for. Right now, I just did it real time with the Italian you where I believe the markets going to draw to, |
| 132 | 00:24:14,040 --> 00:24:24,450 | but also preface it by saying do not push it with a lot of count, because I might be wrong. And these numbers are dangerous, like they will manipulate the |
| 133 | 00:24:24,450 --> 00:24:36,180 | market incredibly, and they can hurt you very, very bad. Quickly. So don't do that. The only thing we're doing is studying how we see a trade setup. Is it |
| 134 | 00:24:36,750 --> 00:24:46,980 | likely to pan out if it's good, just use it as experience if it's wrong, be thankful that you didn't push it in a live account. And I'll tell you, this is |
| 135 | 00:24:46,980 --> 00:25:00,480 | the reason why I don't do it. Okay. Now, later in the afternoon. Well, I really shouldn't say afternoon, let's say 945 That way there's 50 Min. Saturday, |
| 136 | 00:25:00,750 --> 00:25:11,820 | equities open at 930 Let them digest what the open does to then at that point at 945 on CPI number days, then you can go in and trade the normal market |
| 137 | 00:25:11,820 --> 00:25:22,200 | conditions. But until, like 830 to 945 Man, you're in dangerous waters, especially if you don't know I'm talking about or what you're doing in the |
| 138 | 00:25:22,200 --> 00:25:27,210 | marketplace. And there's a lot of you that are like that, and it's who I'm talking to. I know there's a lot of people out here I've experienced and they |
| 139 | 00:25:27,210 --> 00:25:35,700 | take offense to what I'm saying, like I'm talking to them, if you're profitable, and you're, you know, you've been doing you've been around the block for a while |
| 140 | 00:25:35,730 --> 00:25:45,900 | I'm talking to you, making sure people that don't know what they're doing are aren't going to hurt themselves. Okay. So that's what we're looking for, we're |
| 141 | 00:25:45,900 --> 00:25:55,230 | gonna sit here and watch in less than two minutes or so the fireworks will happen. And if it runs out in the fairway get, we're gonna observe if it rolls |
| 142 | 00:25:55,230 --> 00:26:04,560 | right through it and doesn't respect it and goes higher, which, whatever. But if it goes in the fear of a cat and then sells off, then you'll have something to |
| 143 | 00:26:04,590 --> 00:26:17,340 | observe, study, log it. And if you have the ability to record now use TechSmith Camtasia Studio, it costs a little bit of money but for study purposes, man it's |
| 144 | 00:26:17,340 --> 00:26:25,170 | it's it's nice to be able to record live data even if you're not in front of the charts if you have a business or if you're working or if you're in school, and |
| 145 | 00:26:25,170 --> 00:26:33,120 | you can't be in front of the charts real time to set it to record you know, a one to five and 30 minute chart layout and then come back and it's totally |
| 146 | 00:26:33,120 --> 00:26:43,980 | different from watching like a market replay on trading view market replays kind of like stilted it's not as fluid as you would expect to see real time data. So |
| 147 | 00:26:44,010 --> 00:26:48,510 | to me I think it's one of the best resources in addition to a journal |
| 148 | 00:26:50,190 --> 00:27:15,510 | Alright, so I think that is enough talking we're going to see what pans out now all the clicking is mean just adding the things I added |
| 149 | 00:27:16,800 --> 00:27:22,110 | in commentary to my es chart because only thing I marked up really was on us 500 chart. |
| 150 | 00:27:23,520 --> 00:27:35,910 | So now what we have a we have an outline of my opinion what I think the market will likely do and why should it do it. I believe that that imbalance around on |
| 151 | 00:27:35,940 --> 00:27:50,460 | es between 37 8250 or there abouts. If it goes up into there, that's fair value. And if they want to think it lower, they can take it to that point and then down |
| 152 | 00:27:50,460 --> 00:28:03,540 | below 3704 Or just a straight dump rate to 37 and four there's the two outcomes I see. Otherwise I'm dead in the water wrong and it just blows right through the |
| 153 | 00:28:03,540 --> 00:28:04,470 | fair value gap and |
| 154 | 00:28:06,540 --> 00:28:29,550 | that'll be the end of it all right less than 15 seconds Showtime |
| 155 | 00:28:45,630 --> 00:28:53,460 | and that is why you don't want to do it yes is ripped all to 3860 right now and |
| 156 | 00:28:55,980 --> 00:28:57,180 | the US 500 charts |
| 157 | 00:28:57,180 --> 00:28:58,950 | not doing anything for me you're here |
| 158 | 00:29:06,990 --> 00:29:13,050 | check on Twitter real quick. Can you see if do you have anything moving on your US 500 chart |
| 159 | 00:29:21,630 --> 00:29:32,430 | there it is it just finally updated and this is one big jump up there. So us 500 just ripped all the way up into 3040 or above |
| 160 | 00:29:46,380 --> 00:30:02,910 | it's now there's no one. There's no one entering on that candle with any measure of precision or nimbleness. Okay, there's no Anytime you see anybody sharing a |
| 161 | 00:30:02,910 --> 00:30:12,390 | chart, like always after the fact, here's my injury. And here it is, here's why I got in it. That's fake. Okay, because you can't, you can't even do it with the |
| 162 | 00:30:12,390 --> 00:30:23,340 | demo. Like it's not going to fill you. So it's It's nonsensical for these folks to come out here on a day like these news market reports, it's no way absolutely |
| 163 | 00:30:23,340 --> 00:30:36,510 | not going to happen. Now, if you look at the lows, right on the hourly, now I'm specifically looking at es because I'm not concerned about us 500. Now, |
| 164 | 00:30:38,400 --> 00:30:40,560 | I'm not sure why there was such a big delay there, but |
| 165 | 00:30:42,060 --> 00:30:47,250 | as very close movement to the ES |
| 166 | 00:30:47,940 --> 00:30:48,780 | maximize this. |
| 167 | 00:30:52,350 --> 00:31:04,830 | Alright, so now we have relative equal lows. On this morning, by sides resting rate at on your hourly chart, we have not had not changed my timeframe, the high |
| 168 | 00:31:04,860 --> 00:31:18,870 | of 3867, there's buyside, resting just above that. Now, if we can run above that, that will be a candidate to see if they want to take that and then reject |
| 169 | 00:31:18,870 --> 00:31:24,900 | it, and then come back for the sell side resting below 3750. |
| 170 | 00:31:33,690 --> 00:31:42,000 | Don't personally see them coming all the way up to 30 920-520-3928. |
| 171 | 00:31:42,000 --> 00:31:44,610 | If you look at the high on the first of November, |
| 172 | 00:31:46,350 --> 00:31:56,130 | I'm not interested in seeing that. But I would like to see it go above the high at November 8 at 11 o'clock in the morning. They can bump that. And then if he |
| 173 | 00:31:56,130 --> 00:31:59,820 | rejects, then he can come back and clean up the sell side below |
| 174 | 00:32:01,650 --> 00:32:02,670 | 3750. |
| 175 | 00:32:03,720 --> 00:32:15,030 | And if they can salary below that, then back into that 37 No 530 704 area. That's a scenario that I'd like to see pan out after like the 9:45am I was |
| 176 | 00:32:15,060 --> 00:32:29,040 | referring to earlier let the equities market open up. This here is this absolute gambling. And it looks incredible. Like it feels like man if I could have just |
| 177 | 00:32:29,040 --> 00:32:41,850 | been in 100 handle move to happen. Like, like, if you're wrong, folks, I'm telling you if you're wrong, it ends you. So it's not a matter of oh, well, you |
| 178 | 00:32:41,850 --> 00:32:50,100 | should know better. Now I know that this is going to hurt you. It can hurt me. Like I gave you my honest opinion about what I felt is a likely scenario this |
| 179 | 00:32:50,100 --> 00:32:58,110 | morning. Why don't you trade it ICT because this is what can happen. If I pushed it with a live account, this would have crushed it like it would have been bad. |
| 180 | 00:33:00,030 --> 00:33:10,950 | So again, this gets back to I was referring to I think it was last week or the weekend, I'm not sure when I was doing the last stream or space where I was |
| 181 | 00:33:10,950 --> 00:33:23,250 | saying social media equity curves, you know, being popular based on, you know, showing stuff with like a math textbook or whatever. That puts you in a position |
| 182 | 00:33:23,250 --> 00:33:32,310 | where you have to constantly perform like you have to do it. And I'm not trying to teach that in any of my students and I don't I don't do that. I want to be in |
| 183 | 00:33:32,310 --> 00:33:41,610 | a market where it's really easy to see what it's likely to do. Where is it likely to go? Why should it go there. And if I don't have that one sidedness. |
| 184 | 00:33:42,360 --> 00:33:49,380 | Now, I don't have the one sidedness today because CPI numbers, you know, rocket fuel, whatever they're going to do with the marketplace, they're gonna do it |
| 185 | 00:33:49,770 --> 00:33:58,080 | regardless of what my opinion is what your opinion is, whatever is it's going to just take off and you can see it's moved a lot in just a short span of time if |
| 186 | 00:33:58,080 --> 00:34:00,870 | you drop down now go into a 15 minute timeframe. |
| 187 | 00:34:02,550 --> 00:34:04,800 | You can follow along on your US 500 chart Do |
| 188 | 00:34:07,020 --> 00:34:11,820 | you want to have a horizontal line on the high |
| 189 | 00:34:16,380 --> 00:34:17,100 | draw mind as |
| 190 | 00:34:22,020 --> 00:34:37,830 | we just ran through that high of 3067 Now you want to watch what it does here because everyone that was short their stock would be all above those relative |
| 191 | 00:34:37,830 --> 00:34:57,870 | equal highs on your 15 minute timeframe. Yes chart for those that are following along. Make sure it looks like that one. Now |
| 192 | 00:35:04,830 --> 00:35:14,670 | that bear flag idea. Remember I was talking about earlier, retail would fall along with that and go short. What I look for is it has to go up into a at least |
| 193 | 00:35:14,670 --> 00:35:24,720 | a short term premium, which is why the fair value that was even mentioned in the first place, because it has to come up out of that to be even considered. Before |
| 194 | 00:35:24,720 --> 00:35:33,090 | we even began seeing the CPI number come in, I outlined why you shouldn't be pushing it with a live account, don't even don't even try to make with real |
| 195 | 00:35:33,090 --> 00:35:43,080 | money because it's going to hurt you. You wouldn't be able to get filled. That's the characteristic with this market report. Okay, you're not getting filled. If |
| 196 | 00:35:43,080 --> 00:35:52,800 | you're going to get a fill, you're going to be filled so far away. If they even allow it to be filled, it'll be so slipped. And slippage is where you're trying |
| 197 | 00:35:52,800 --> 00:36:04,800 | to get in at and where you're actually filled. On a day like today. You don't want to be slipped 50 handles, okay, that's not that's not fun. Because then |
| 198 | 00:36:04,830 --> 00:36:14,490 | you're going to be stuck trying to decide, is it something you want to hold on to so if you made the mistake of getting in, and I'm anxious to see if any of |
| 199 | 00:36:14,490 --> 00:36:29,220 | you were able to get your demo account or paper trading account to fill you on TradingView? Go down into a five minute chart. Okay, and again, that is over 100 |
| 200 | 00:36:29,220 --> 00:36:29,790 | handles |
| 201 | 00:36:32,760 --> 00:36:34,080 | in less than 10 minutes. |
| 202 | 00:36:38,099 --> 00:36:52,229 | Can you afford to be wrong on a day like this? That's what I'm trying to make you understand. Seeing big moves like this. It's intoxicating, after you see |
| 203 | 00:36:52,229 --> 00:37:00,329 | them move, like if you aren't watching it live, or you're so brand new to this industry. And you think that you can actually get in here and push the button |
| 204 | 00:37:00,329 --> 00:37:12,629 | and get in on these moves right as the app and it's not happening. That doesn't happen. Okay. So knowing that that is what this market report does, it's |
| 205 | 00:37:13,439 --> 00:37:25,109 | important for you to know what the economic calendar says. And when these numbers like this coming out FOMC rate announcements and CPI numbers, they are |
| 206 | 00:37:25,619 --> 00:37:41,669 | dangerous. Like you can have your clock cleaned. expediently gone, thanks for playing ICT included. I did not do this to be incorrect. On purpose, I genuinely |
| 207 | 00:37:41,669 --> 00:37:52,439 | gave you what I felt is a likely scenario, what I would like to see pan out. And if I would have done it on a live account, this would have hurt me. So knowing |
| 208 | 00:37:52,469 --> 00:38:00,929 | when not to do something and why you're not doing it. Okay, that gives you peace of mind. It's not, it's never going to bring me a fear of missing out. Like I |
| 209 | 00:38:00,929 --> 00:38:10,319 | don't look at this move and say, Oh, but I wish I would have done. I don't, I don't do that. I don't think that way. We've already swept that 3867 level on es |
| 210 | 00:38:10,679 --> 00:38:24,839 | the relative equal highs. If you're falling on the US 500 We've swept there. So now we want to watch and see does it give us a shorter timeframe. Post 930 Is |
| 211 | 00:38:24,839 --> 00:38:35,399 | what you're looking for. Now, it could just tear off and keep going higher. But we have a really huge imbalance now from the CPI number to where we are right |
| 212 | 00:38:35,399 --> 00:38:46,019 | now. So I think that we have a little bit of range to explore. Note that 3850 On es down into |
| 213 | 00:38:48,840 --> 00:38:50,430 | 3815. |
| 214 | 00:38:51,630 --> 00:38:53,970 | So 3850 to 3015. |
| 215 | 00:38:56,670 --> 00:39:09,840 | That might be something we explore going into the equities open at 930. I'm just highlighting that range because I set it here. I'm gonna make sure it shows up |
| 216 | 00:39:09,840 --> 00:39:10,650 | on my chart later on. |
| 217 | 00:39:34,079 --> 00:39:45,809 | And I didn't see this, but I'm certain if I go through my tweet someone's going to ask you what's the data? And how do you read the data? I don't ever care to |
| 218 | 00:39:45,809 --> 00:39:59,999 | know what the data is. I just anticipate a lot of volatility on certain market events like this and I studied I'm never going in and trading seat I've been |
| 219 | 00:39:59,999 --> 00:40:09,869 | Never, ever, ever told any of my students to go in there and say, Alright, you're gonna treat a CPI number, you're gonna get an arrowhead at the CPI number |
| 220 | 00:40:09,869 --> 00:40:23,069 | and there it is. No, we treat it just like FOMC, we want to see it hit the market, watch and observe what liquidity they take where they aim for. And if |
| 221 | 00:40:23,069 --> 00:40:46,409 | you look at the five minute chart now, looking back as far as yesterday, candles 1545 on November 9, when Wednesday, November 9 of November, look at the 1545 |
| 222 | 00:40:46,409 --> 00:40:58,079 | candle. That low, if you're following along on us 500, it should be basically same thing. So it's walked sideways ahead of this report coming out. I outlined |
| 223 | 00:40:58,079 --> 00:41:10,019 | how retail would see that as a bear flag. And we I wanted to see it go up into some short term premium. It did. So now if I was wrong, then it would go up. And |
| 224 | 00:41:10,409 --> 00:41:21,359 | obviously we're not that previous high. We've done so now it's just hanging around, we have some time, it's only 842. So we're really an hour away before |
| 225 | 00:41:21,419 --> 00:41:37,979 | any trade would be taken by me. I'm not against taking trades on CPI number of days, I just don't want you thinking that it's advised or smart to be taking a |
| 226 | 00:41:37,979 --> 00:41:49,979 | trade of a hit of CPI number. I don't care how long you've been doing it or what you think your tools are doing. I got it wrong right in front of you. And that |
| 227 | 00:41:49,979 --> 00:41:59,879 | was a genuine opinion about what I felt was likely to happen. And that's what these reports will do. They will crush you. And you need to do this a dozen |
| 228 | 00:41:59,879 --> 00:42:09,959 | times in a year to realize, hey, this is probably not something smart or safe for me to do. Let me wait and see what the market does after that explosion of |
| 229 | 00:42:09,959 --> 00:42:17,189 | volatility comes in the marketplace. Because there's trades that will be taken later on in the day. That's fine. But I don't want you feeling like you have to |
| 230 | 00:42:17,189 --> 00:42:27,899 | know what this is going to do. Because I don't know what it's going to do. CPI number is a highly manipulated data release. Just like FOMC you don't know what |
| 231 | 00:42:27,899 --> 00:42:35,129 | the Fed is going to do. You don't know what they're going to do and repricing the currencies because they can come out dovish, or hawkish. And that might mean |
| 232 | 00:42:35,129 --> 00:42:43,589 | something to somebody else in the analysis. But the market repricing starts going in the opposite direction you've been in that situation before it's |
| 233 | 00:42:43,589 --> 00:42:52,109 | supposed to be good for the currency or is it good for the market? But it goes the other way? aggressively? And then they'll say, Well, it was it was the |
| 234 | 00:42:52,109 --> 00:42:55,859 | market discounted that it was already priced in? Why didn't you say that before the news came out. |
| 235 | 00:42:57,360 --> 00:42:58,170 | Because it's all bullshit. |
| 236 | 00:42:59,730 --> 00:43:11,070 | We have to wait for this explosion to happen. And then once the dust settles, then we can go in and pick our shots and see what happens after. Like right now. |
| 237 | 00:43:11,730 --> 00:43:21,810 | Everybody that went in this today, or was short, just got taken out. Imagine you were short yesterday, holding on thinking that bear flag that I outlined was |
| 238 | 00:43:21,810 --> 00:43:34,020 | going to continue going lower, breaking lower and keep going lower. They just got removed from the game quickly. Now what I like to see is I like to see |
| 239 | 00:43:34,020 --> 00:43:48,570 | things like that. And then look to see if that narrative can be utilized later in the day. They use, in my opinion, the CPI number as a vehicle to justify in |
| 240 | 00:43:48,570 --> 00:43:59,880 | the public's eye why the market went up to this level where we're at now above 3867. There was liquidity there. So that liquidity now has been engaged. Do we |
| 241 | 00:43:59,880 --> 00:44:11,820 | go higher and start working towards a higher close on the day? Or do we work back lower in that range that was just created with that big two or three up |
| 242 | 00:44:11,820 --> 00:44:25,140 | candles on a five minute chart. And then work towards that sell side below 3750. That's that's what I'm looking for. I don't have a setup right now. But now |
| 243 | 00:44:25,140 --> 00:44:34,560 | because we were so quick to get up there and take out yesterday's buyside liquidity. They did it on this high impact news driver. They did it where people |
| 244 | 00:44:34,560 --> 00:44:44,820 | are going to see that going into the 930 in the morning equities open. So it's going to create what if you if you sat down on your charts you woke up now, you |
| 245 | 00:44:44,820 --> 00:44:53,130 | look at this. This looks extremely bullish, does it not? I mean, if you just looked at this five minute chart, you don't have anything else considered at |
| 246 | 00:44:53,130 --> 00:45:05,130 | all. This communicates a fevered pitch for markets that want to go higher. That's So that's a basic perception that anybody would come away with looking at |
| 247 | 00:45:05,130 --> 00:45:18,690 | that. The contrary in me is thinking, okay, they use this, they got to that by side, can I use that and turn it on its head, and then look for something that |
| 248 | 00:45:18,690 --> 00:45:29,040 | would justify why we can go back down into that range, what I outlined, which, if you look at the low of the candle, this is on ES. So we're, if you're looking |
| 249 | 00:45:29,040 --> 00:45:38,700 | at a five minute chart, you're gonna go back, not counting the candle we're in right now, you're gonna go back to candles. So that low on ES is that 3033 and a |
| 250 | 00:45:38,700 --> 00:45:59,760 | half. I have that noted down to 3815. So I'm looking for something in that range. Post 930 opening. Now, the worst case scenario would be is it just keeps |
| 251 | 00:45:59,760 --> 00:46:09,810 | on going higher, and I have no setup. Okay, that's the worst, because I'm not trying to get in anything. It can trade down into that range, and then resume |
| 252 | 00:46:09,810 --> 00:46:20,670 | going higher, and then I'm wrong there. But I'll be wrong. And if I can take a trade, so that it's a different kind of being wrong like this, I'm fine with, |
| 253 | 00:46:20,880 --> 00:46:28,920 | because I'm illustrating why I don't trade these market reports. And why it's dangerous for you to to try to do it. Because you don't know no one knows what |
| 254 | 00:46:28,920 --> 00:46:39,510 | they're going to do. Okay. And because there's manual intervention, you're opening yourself up to unlimited damage. Like it's unlimited how how far and |
| 255 | 00:46:39,510 --> 00:46:51,420 | fast they can take these markets and reprice them, look at how much it's moved already. So I'm thinking that range is too exposed, it's all one sided, it |
| 256 | 00:46:51,450 --> 00:47:05,100 | happened too fast, and go down into a one minute chart on ES. Now, if you highlighted the range that I mentioned moments ago, |
| 257 | 00:47:09,540 --> 00:47:11,250 | that range being below |
| 258 | 00:47:14,730 --> 00:47:32,400 | 3853 and a half vs 3853 and a half, down to 3815. Now on a one minute chart, you should see a fair value get rate at one minute chart, you should see a fair |
| 259 | 00:47:32,400 --> 00:47:55,410 | value get rate at one on one minute chart on es at 3050, even and the low 138 53 and a half. So there's a smaller period yet with a down close candle at the 832 |
| 260 | 00:47:55,860 --> 00:48:07,260 | minute marker. Yes. So if we drop down into that, say it drops down to that and then it takes out the high again, whatever I would form prior to it dropping |
| 261 | 00:48:07,260 --> 00:48:18,150 | down there. That to me, I'd had to concede and say okay, this is probably going to go into a firmer close for today. But I'd like to see, here's what is |
| 262 | 00:48:18,180 --> 00:48:30,150 | important, that fair value, get that as outlined if we can get below that. And then it can act as a resistance and a failure to engage prices and higher. If |
| 263 | 00:48:30,150 --> 00:48:38,790 | there is no accumulation that takes place at that down close came on one minute chart with that fair value gap. And it goes below it and comes back up and |
| 264 | 00:48:38,790 --> 00:48:51,570 | starts acting as resistance. I'll take every fair value gap that forms after that, when with the anticipation that we're likely to trade down into that 3015 |
| 265 | 00:48:51,570 --> 00:49:07,920 | level. But as a time filter applied to it, because I want to see the equities open, and we still have 40 minutes before 930 and a safe time for you as a |
| 266 | 00:49:07,920 --> 00:49:18,660 | developing student would be waiting till 945 You're gonna probably miss trades. That's okay. If you're learning how to do something, it's important for you to |
| 267 | 00:49:18,660 --> 00:49:29,490 | be comfortable with missing moves. And not knowing why you missed it. Because it's harmless. versus getting into something not knowing what you're doing. |
| 268 | 00:49:30,000 --> 00:49:40,020 | being harmed by and not understanding why hurt you. It will it'll become toxic to you trading feel toxic, you'll develop fear and anxiety, which is the hardest |
| 269 | 00:49:40,020 --> 00:49:49,350 | thing to get over. Fear Of Missing Out that's easily fixed. Because once you have a model, you don't sweat these types of moves, you know that there's other |
| 270 | 00:49:49,350 --> 00:49:58,260 | moves that you're going to be able to be able to capture and it'll make sense for you to be engaging it but fear and anxiety of losing money. That's a really |
| 271 | 00:49:58,260 --> 00:50:09,720 | hard one to fix because It's easy to talk yourself into thinking, wow, you know, I just had a losing trade or I had a series of losing trades. What happens if I |
| 272 | 00:50:09,720 --> 00:50:21,870 | take the next 10 trades and they're losers too, your mind gets overactive. So all those things come into the equation when you start looking at real time |
| 273 | 00:50:21,870 --> 00:50:27,480 | data. And considering pushing the button, if you've done the exercise this morning |
| 274 | 00:50:33,210 --> 00:50:36,840 | if if you push the button |
| 275 | 00:50:43,949 --> 00:50:45,329 | so many people tweeting to me |
| 276 | 00:50:46,619 --> 00:50:49,649 | not tweeting to me texting, please don't do that, because it's a distraction. |
| 277 | 00:50:51,630 --> 00:50:53,880 | A lot of my students know my cell phone number and they |
| 278 | 00:50:54,989 --> 00:51:08,759 | abuse I don't rarely ever reply to all of them. But if you push the button, and you can show me your execution errors, do that tweet that to me now. If you |
| 279 | 00:51:08,759 --> 00:51:33,479 | couldn't get a fill, or if it rejected your order, say so. Here we go. Armando. Order rejected. Welcome to the real world see that. But you'll never see that. |
| 280 | 00:51:34,889 --> 00:51:36,479 | And that was one demo Armando says. |
| 281 | 00:51:36,630 --> 00:51:37,110 | So |
| 282 | 00:51:40,170 --> 00:51:46,440 | that's what I'm trying to explain to you. There's people out there, they're gonna pretend that they did something stellar. And you'll probably see it, they |
| 283 | 00:51:46,440 --> 00:51:58,350 | probably will show the vault the love. Okay, although use the arrow on a on a candle like that one, it formed at 830. And because it doesn't show you the |
| 284 | 00:51:58,350 --> 00:52:07,260 | actual price, I think it would be better for trading view to actually have the arrow, populate the chart at the price you got filled out, you'd see a whole lot |
| 285 | 00:52:07,260 --> 00:52:16,380 | less tomfoolery in terms of what was being shared by people in line. Because if he showed you the chart, and has the arrow at the low of the candle, at first |
| 286 | 00:52:16,380 --> 00:52:24,300 | glance, it was like wow, you bought the very low, when you could be near the high of the candle as an entry. You know, if the trades are closed, that's why |
| 287 | 00:52:24,300 --> 00:52:30,390 | it's important. That's why I go through and show you my entries show you my execution actual price points. If I'm not recording it live, when I'm getting in |
| 288 | 00:52:30,390 --> 00:52:40,620 | there, I go in I show you where the actual fields were. Alright, so looking at the Yes, right now. And again, we're only seeing one minute timeframe, we have |
| 289 | 00:52:40,620 --> 00:52:55,650 | had one drive, fall short of that 3867 level, should down a little bit. And then we went above that 3867 back down below 3867. And a little bit into a fair value |
| 290 | 00:52:55,650 --> 00:53:10,080 | gap that was formed on the campus of the one minute chart on es at 3859 and a quarter to the low of 3866. And three quarters that fair value gap was engaged |
| 291 | 00:53:10,110 --> 00:53:25,380 | at the 839 candle on es then we were in at the short term high that was formed. The only interest I have, because you don't know if they're gonna keep tearing |
| 292 | 00:53:25,380 --> 00:53:31,650 | off higher. And it can do that. I want to see that fair Vega outlined earlier. |
| 293 | 00:53:35,849 --> 00:53:41,069 | Just below 3053 and a half |
| 294 | 00:53:43,020 --> 00:53:52,290 | and get a one minute chart you should see it trades down into a order a lot of it does that as long as it keeps going higher, there's nothing to do. You don't |
| 295 | 00:53:52,290 --> 00:53:59,220 | want to keep buying it. You don't want to chase it, you don't do anything with this right now. What I'm looking for is I want to see that fair value get there |
| 296 | 00:53:59,220 --> 00:54:06,720 | would otherwise be something that would go long on. If we didn't have this big run up like this. I know words, I'm not looking for that fair value got to go |
| 297 | 00:54:06,720 --> 00:54:14,520 | down into it to buy long, I don't want to do that. What I want to see it do is I want to see a trade down into it. Initially, it might want to give the |
| 298 | 00:54:14,520 --> 00:54:23,400 | impression and wants to go higher. But I want to see that fail. That's the setup I'm looking for I want to see that fail, go below the fair value gap once price |
| 299 | 00:54:23,400 --> 00:54:31,350 | goes below the fit and it may not do this, but if it does, this was this is what I'm looking for, to actually push a button today. I want to see that fail and |
| 300 | 00:54:31,350 --> 00:54:42,150 | why why would I want that? Because the buyside liquidity at 3867 has been taken it's been engaged now. And it was done so on the CPI number when there's nothing |
| 301 | 00:54:42,180 --> 00:54:55,800 | constructive about the consumer right now like it's it's bad. So I don't need to know what the report says. Like all of this here is just I'm utilizing for |
| 302 | 00:54:55,800 --> 00:55:07,620 | liquidity only. I knew and expected and you know now also that there's a lot of volatility on the CPI numbers. We observed and went above PSI from yesterday. |
| 303 | 00:55:08,520 --> 00:55:19,110 | And now is it running higher still? No, it's just hanging around. There is no setup for a long in here that I would take, I would not want to take a long at |
| 304 | 00:55:19,110 --> 00:55:32,160 | that fair value got that outlined, framed on the only down close candle that you see right at a 32. That down close candle and a woman it's wrong. Yes. That's a |
| 305 | 00:55:32,160 --> 00:55:42,240 | bullish order block. And it's coupled with a fair value gap that's formed immediately after that damn close candle. If that does not send price higher, if |
| 306 | 00:55:42,240 --> 00:55:52,830 | it trades down to it, that's my broken, little wing. That's like, hey, you know, this should have sent price higher. If it goes down and starts to rally, that's |
| 307 | 00:55:52,830 --> 00:56:02,670 | good. Because then if it does go below that fair value gap, I'll feel confident that I can take a trade down into 3015. And maybe even retest that 3795. |
| 308 | 00:56:04,170 --> 00:56:06,930 | Price, nine to 3792. |
| 309 | 00:56:07,739 --> 00:56:16,709 | But that's the only thing I would do, like I would let this market do if it just tears off and goes all the way up to 3900. I don't care. I don't fear missing |
| 310 | 00:56:16,709 --> 00:56:26,729 | it. I don't have any anxiety about you know, not having been in it. Because I know what I'm looking for. You might have something else in mind that you want |
| 311 | 00:56:26,729 --> 00:56:36,089 | to do. What I just outlined is something that I would be willing to engage. And if that fair value gap fails, that to me would indicate that we're likely to |
| 312 | 00:56:36,089 --> 00:56:47,819 | revisit and reprice to at the very minimum, that 3015 level now you're probably asking yourself, why that 3015 low 3015 Let's go back up to the hourly chart. |
| 313 | 00:57:10,320 --> 00:57:17,190 | realize his loud folks in here falling on us 500 chart and probably get very frustrating for you. I apologize. |
| 314 | 00:57:20,850 --> 00:57:30,810 | Alright, so 3015, if you look at all the the wicks on an hourly chart for ES, the candle at nine o'clock on Wednesday, |
| 315 | 00:57:32,400 --> 00:57:36,930 | at 10 o'clock, and at 11 o'clock, |
| 316 | 00:57:38,070 --> 00:57:48,510 | there was multiple times it traded up into that area and moved away. Big because it has done that what was actually occurring on those three hours, the market |
| 317 | 00:57:48,510 --> 00:57:59,400 | has traded up, and then back down, traded up, then back down, traded back up, and then back down. That creates a balanced price range. So it can trade down |
| 318 | 00:57:59,430 --> 00:58:10,200 | into that area. Now you start at 15 because it's about the near the low end, because of a big report day like this. There's a lot of animation in price. It |
| 319 | 00:58:10,200 --> 00:58:20,220 | can color outside the lines basically and do a little bit more than you would reasonably expect. That's why I chose the 3015. Do you use 3015 for yourself, if |
| 320 | 00:58:20,220 --> 00:58:28,980 | it starts to outline when I mentioned earlier, that's up for you to determine. You can use 3020 That's a nice number as well for it to want to trade back down |
| 321 | 00:58:29,010 --> 00:58:38,550 | in if it's going to do any of that at all. But that all stems on the willingness or likelihood that that fair pay gap that I outlined earlier is even ever |
| 322 | 00:58:38,550 --> 00:58:49,020 | engaged because this could just keep grinding higher in that trade never forms Do I regret not buying it? Does that know? Because buying it right now after |
| 323 | 00:58:49,020 --> 00:59:01,860 | it's done what it's done here makes absolutely no sense to me. I'm buying in an extremely huge premium with a correction that will take us into even a small |
| 324 | 00:59:01,920 --> 00:59:11,370 | move to like 3040 or 3036 |
| 325 | 00:59:12,060 --> 00:59:21,960 | and that's too much of arrange for me to to concede with being wrong. I need to know what I'm looking for. I need to know what shots I'm trying to go after. And |
| 326 | 00:59:21,960 --> 00:59:31,770 | right now we got relatively speaking with three drives high power three drives hire pattern |
| 327 | 00:59:34,290 --> 00:59:37,830 | I just don't like how smooth the one we're in that right now is over like to see the candle we |
| 328 | 00:59:37,829 --> 00:59:51,479 | just closed actually come lower. Pop up one more time. If you look at your one minute chart, yes, we just dropped down into that Faraday gap that was formed on |
| 329 | 00:59:51,479 --> 01:00:03,689 | the a 56 candle to the 858 candle. So there's three candles that Faraday got we dropped down into it I'd like to see that one failed to send price higher, I'd |
| 330 | 01:00:03,689 --> 01:00:13,589 | like to see that and see if we can get below the low formed at the 850 minute marker. That would be interesting to see that happen, then we can start to see |
| 331 | 01:00:13,589 --> 01:00:21,419 | if it wants to gravitate towards that fair value gap I mentioned earlier around that 3050 level. But there's no buttons being pushed right now, this is tape |
| 332 | 01:00:21,419 --> 01:00:29,759 | reading. This is tape reading, as I teach it, you see other people say, Oh, this isn't tape reading, you need to dammed up the market needle. You don't need |
| 333 | 01:00:29,759 --> 01:00:40,379 | that. You need to know what you're looking for. And then once you understand what it is you're looking for, you wait. If it doesn't form, what does that |
| 334 | 01:00:40,379 --> 01:00:56,129 | mean? Nothing. You didn't push a button, you didn't risk anything. And yes, you placed time in front of a chart. And it was an investment, it's experience. Most |
| 335 | 01:00:56,129 --> 01:01:06,119 | of your time is going to be doing nothing between trades. That that's the part that wears people down. And that's the time when you discover what it is you're |
| 336 | 01:01:06,119 --> 01:01:14,789 | trying to do as a trader, because if you don't have a model, if you don't have a method, or an approach to, to want to push a button, you're just in here trying |
| 337 | 01:01:14,789 --> 01:01:22,199 | to impulsively react to oh, it looks like it's gonna keep moving up or it's gonna keep moving down. That's gambling. And then you shouldn't be surprised |
| 338 | 01:01:22,199 --> 01:01:23,219 | when you record yourself. |
| 339 | 01:01:29,040 --> 01:01:32,370 | I'm sure there's about 50 people out there right now saying ICT got it wrong. |
| 340 | 01:01:33,659 --> 01:01:51,599 | But they didn't buy it. That's the difference. Okay, there's a difference here. Alright, so we're at the low under the Fair Pay Gap, it would have to go up here |
| 341 | 01:01:51,599 --> 01:01:52,889 | or it fails. |
| 342 | 01:01:58,889 --> 01:02:01,469 | I just hit a train back down below that 3867. |
| 343 | 01:02:08,099 --> 01:02:10,229 | If my son Caleb was here, he could |
| 344 | 01:02:12,780 --> 01:02:14,250 | provide me a means of |
| 345 | 01:02:17,310 --> 01:02:25,320 | a sounding board, I can bounce some things off of him asking you what do you see here? What do you what would you anticipate here? So I'm right now I'm at a |
| 346 | 01:02:26,400 --> 01:02:34,080 | point where I'm trying to anticipate what some of you are thinking. Which you're probably asking, like, why didn't you talk about this morning talk about that. |
| 347 | 01:02:34,500 --> 01:02:45,480 | And I didn't talk about it's not important to me. Which gets back to your model is going to be your model. And the things that I'm trading off of, you may not |
| 348 | 01:02:45,480 --> 01:02:51,930 | be considering may not even be a factor at all for your trade. Maybe a market you're not going to touch our timeframe |
| 349 | 01:02:59,790 --> 01:03:11,760 | Okay, so now notice how we have moved up into the range between 3860 to 3080. After taking out the high from yesterday at 3867 Has there been a lot of |
| 350 | 01:03:11,760 --> 01:03:27,210 | animation to the upside after taking it we had one shallow run above it dropped down below it, made a higher high again, consolidated made a higher high and now |
| 351 | 01:03:27,210 --> 01:03:33,660 | we're about to trade below 3867 Looks like it's relatively equal lows sitting right around. |
| 352 | 01:03:36,030 --> 01:03:37,560 | You look at your one minute chart, the |
| 353 | 01:03:37,560 --> 01:03:40,380 | 850 to 853 |
| 354 | 01:03:41,880 --> 01:04:00,930 | small little poll liquidity in there we're here to show his charts. |
| 355 | 01:04:02,910 --> 01:04:08,130 | You can't trade off my charts you got to trade off your charts. Alright, so we're trading back into that fair value gap. |
| 356 | 01:04:08,160 --> 01:04:09,780 | The gap is |
| 357 | 01:04:11,699 --> 01:04:24,449 | formed from the high on candle 856. I'm talking about time to the low on candle 858. So we went below it. Now we're trading back up into it. We're seeing does |
| 358 | 01:04:24,449 --> 01:04:29,309 | it have reasons to repel price and keep it from going any higher? |
| 359 | 01:05:07,139 --> 01:05:26,699 | So if you're looking at from a one minute chart, if you have the will say 3836 level, from 3836. Drop the horizontal line there and drop one at the high of |
| 360 | 01:05:29,609 --> 01:05:47,879 | 37 70.75. Okay, that range that is a buy side imbalance, sell side inefficiency. That means that the imbalance is to the buy side, it's all delivery on the |
| 361 | 01:05:47,879 --> 01:05:58,139 | upside, it is not buying pressure. Okay, because you saw how fast that candle traded all those prices between those two levels, I was told you did not get |
| 362 | 01:05:58,139 --> 01:06:12,719 | traded. So there's a buy side imbalance. And it's inefficient. In sell side, no one had an opportunity to sell as counterparty to anybody that would see this |
| 363 | 01:06:12,719 --> 01:06:19,199 | candle, it was like, oh, all these prices in here were trading. No, they weren't. That is a huge gap. |
| 364 | 01:06:21,480 --> 01:06:28,170 | And I know most of you don't have the way of seeing it. But if you have a five second chart |
| 365 | 01:06:36,270 --> 01:06:51,390 | on a five second chart, now you want to put this in your chart with a different kind of color. You want to note the low one, the 830. Candle, okay, but at 15 |
| 366 | 01:06:51,390 --> 01:06:57,030 | seconds after a 30. Below is at 3815 and a quarter. |
| 367 | 01:06:59,310 --> 01:07:20,790 | So you know why I'm talking about 3030. Now the for makeup, bigger color when use arch. And then you want to have another horizontal line at the high |
| 368 | 01:07:22,590 --> 01:07:36,180 | of 3770 and three quarters. So what I just gave you was a real honest to God, liquidity void, that is a liquidity board. It is not what you think of as an |
| 369 | 01:07:36,180 --> 01:07:45,600 | imbalance that's not liquidity. Liquidity void was where there's absolutely no trading taking place at all that gap where it moved from 3770 and three |
| 370 | 01:07:45,600 --> 01:07:58,890 | quarters, up to 3815 and a quarter. That was two transaction times. One, two, that's it. What What about the trading took place between 3015 and a quarter to |
| 371 | 01:07:58,920 --> 01:08:11,790 | 3770 and three quarters, there was no trading there. So we have a big ol open chasm with price action, where neither buy side or sell side was offered. Now I |
| 372 | 01:08:11,790 --> 01:08:21,690 | just recently taught this about a month ago. Or at least in the last month, I told you what a real liquidity void is. That's what we're going to study going |
| 373 | 01:08:21,690 --> 01:08:34,680 | forward that area down there. That will be revisited. And what I'm trying to see is do we have reason to expect that in today's trading session today, it might |
| 374 | 01:08:34,680 --> 01:08:35,550 | not provide it |
| 375 | 01:08:37,110 --> 01:08:38,970 | to an insurance. |
| 376 | 01:08:54,000 --> 01:09:05,970 | So it's a matter of looking for something to justify why the market should move. More to a draw on liquidity. I like the idea of trading back down into that |
| 377 | 01:09:05,970 --> 01:09:17,850 | range I gave you earlier. But the one that has my most interest is the one identified at 3770 and three quarters to 3015 and a quarter because that is a |
| 378 | 01:09:17,880 --> 01:09:28,410 | absolute liquidity void there, the market will want to go down here. Now, will it go down air to just about halfway and then create some kind of buying |
| 379 | 01:09:28,410 --> 01:09:38,280 | opportunity. It could. But gravitating towards that. That's what I'm looking for. For the rest of today. I'm not interested in going long. I do not would not |
| 380 | 01:09:38,640 --> 01:09:47,880 | consider buying this at all. I don't care even in the pm session I would not buy would not be trying to buy it because we've already built in a huge premium. |
| 381 | 01:09:48,450 --> 01:10:03,240 | It's one sided. And it might take until next week before that 3770 level is repriced, to it doesn't have to happen today. But I'm going in looking for that |
| 382 | 01:10:03,240 --> 01:10:11,130 | today. So now if I have that expectation, and that's my trade model, I'm going to be implementing, implementing and employing for this market for this |
| 383 | 01:10:11,130 --> 01:10:21,210 | particular trading day, if I don't have the setup pan out, or if I have no framework that would logically provide a movement to trade down into those |
| 384 | 01:10:21,210 --> 01:10:33,870 | areas. I'm not going to feel anxious about missing anything. I'm not going to be impatient about pushing the buttons. Because I need to have things in proper |
| 385 | 01:10:33,870 --> 01:10:48,960 | context before I go in and do anything. So hopefully, you're understanding what it is that I look for, not mapped it out. You saw firsthand experience, why I do |
| 386 | 01:10:48,960 --> 01:10:58,800 | not trade ahead of CPI, because I can get it wrong. And if you're wrong on these types of days, it is like a tractor trailer running you over need the first set |
| 387 | 01:10:58,800 --> 01:11:07,290 | of wheels hit you. Yeah, that hurts. But you got 16 More just gonna run right back over top, you still it just keeps running over top of you running over |
| 388 | 01:11:07,290 --> 01:11:15,780 | target. So you don't want to be wrong on a day like this. So just giving yourself the opportunity to observe, study, see what's likely to do and then |
| 389 | 01:11:15,810 --> 01:11:27,240 | revisit it at 945? Does it give us any reason to anticipate market wanting to trade down into those levels I outlined. If it doesn't, then do nothing. Don't |
| 390 | 01:11:27,240 --> 01:11:38,220 | buy it and chase it don't do that. There's plenty other days out there where you can be a buyer and it makes sense. Whereas right now, it's so overly built in as |
| 391 | 01:11:38,220 --> 01:11:48,300 | a premium. The public's going to want to buy this at 930, they're going to want to buy it. And that's also going to build in I'm sorry, building more premium. |
| 392 | 01:11:49,260 --> 01:12:01,290 | And in my opinion, more likely to trade down until it ranges outlined. There's no reason to chase it. But to hopefully demystify the whole, how do you get past |
| 393 | 01:12:01,680 --> 01:12:12,480 | fear of missing out? Or how do you engage? Beyond getting something wrong? How do you know when to avoid the trade? I did all that today with you. Number one, |
| 394 | 01:12:12,510 --> 01:12:25,410 | I'm respecting the risk. Because these types of moves are unforgiving. Like you don't get a second chance to fix it. Like you can't look into it say, Oh, I took |
| 395 | 01:12:25,410 --> 01:12:37,560 | a small loss, let me reverse and go the other way. No, you don't have that luxury. It moves add 100 handles and real quick. So it provides no opportunity |
| 396 | 01:12:37,560 --> 01:12:49,890 | for nimbleness at all, either you're dead right? Before the report comes out. Or you're dead wrong. Okay. And since it's so 5050, like that, and there's no room |
| 397 | 01:12:49,890 --> 01:13:03,930 | for me to mitigate a loss. Like if I if I see that 100 100 handle pan out over the course of the am and pm session, I could get one or two trades wrong |
| 398 | 01:13:04,020 --> 01:13:13,680 | legitimately and navigate and fix that mitigated in a move like that in the morning on a CPI number or FOMC in the afternoon, when they used to come out two |
| 399 | 01:13:13,680 --> 01:13:26,640 | o'clock 230. Doing those types of trades, like you have to be absolutely perfect. You have to know exactly how far it would move against you. To know |
| 400 | 01:13:26,880 --> 01:13:38,250 | that it's something you can weather by entering before the report comes out, which is stupid. Like that's the epitome of gambling. And I don't teach that I |
| 401 | 01:13:38,250 --> 01:13:49,920 | don't do that. I don't teach it. But by having the understanding of what it is that I'm looking for. And understand that elevates the risk involved. I don't |
| 402 | 01:13:49,920 --> 01:13:57,660 | fear of missing these moves. I don't feel like I missed anything. And I don't feel like I'm bleeding out in front of you. Because I already explained to you |
| 403 | 01:13:57,660 --> 01:14:10,470 | that this is a market move that I'm prone to be incorrect about. So I feel I fear nothing. I don't feel like I've missed something. I don't feel like I've |
| 404 | 01:14:10,800 --> 01:14:22,500 | failed. I don't feel like I've hurt myself. I didn't take a losing trade. I didn't lose any money. I had no negative engagement whatsoever. None. That's how |
| 405 | 01:14:22,500 --> 01:14:33,900 | you have to study. You have to keep your trading, studying like that no emotion. I've outlined what I would like to see for the rest of today and or going |
| 406 | 01:14:33,900 --> 01:14:44,130 | forward. I want to see that liquidity void. That's a draw now, and we have to look for the market to indicate that it's done. So no words. Done. So I didn't |
| 407 | 01:14:44,130 --> 01:14:53,700 | say when I was supposed to say right. It's got to have a shift in market structure where it looks like okay, we've done enough pressing hire. So wait for |
| 408 | 01:14:53,700 --> 01:15:07,140 | a shift in market structure. But time first, will Adam is that it's going to be the 930 opening They're holding this into a premium. So at 930, average Joe, and |
| 409 | 01:15:07,140 --> 01:15:16,800 | gi Jane, new cheese has got her trading terminal opened up. So you ready to go out there and start shooting things. They're going to see this as a premium. Not |
| 410 | 01:15:16,800 --> 01:15:27,480 | in the sense that we see it, they see it as you know, that right actually, they see this as a indication that wants to go higher. Whereas we see as a premium, |
| 411 | 01:15:27,810 --> 01:15:40,860 | it's too expensive right now. So it's better for us to anticipate a correction lower into a discount. Versus Buying at these elevated prices, when it's likely |
| 412 | 01:15:40,920 --> 01:15:51,450 | to reprice to a discount, and then anybody that would be going in and buying it right on the opening at 930. They suffer, you know, drawdown or maybe you can |
| 413 | 01:15:51,450 --> 01:15:58,830 | get stopped out or call off site. Try to hang around here |
| 414 | 01:15:59,730 --> 01:16:00,810 | until 945. |
| 415 | 01:16:02,910 --> 01:16:18,270 | We'll see what we get if I can find a way to push a button though. So I'm going to do it ICTs, gambling, high roller but I took you through the process of no I |
| 416 | 01:16:18,630 --> 01:16:31,230 | don't trade on these days he's study them. And hopefully it's convinced you that it's a day that you you really can't trade it. I mean, it's to be honest, you |
| 417 | 01:16:31,230 --> 01:16:41,430 | can't, this is not a trading day, you can observe it. I mean, it's it's really good study. And it gives you a lot of feedback in terms of what you think the |
| 418 | 01:16:41,430 --> 01:16:52,110 | markets likely to do and where it's gonna go. And I'm only interested in seeing it, trade into these areas that I've mentioned thus far. So I'm gonna take that |
| 419 | 01:16:52,140 --> 01:17:06,450 | first Fair Pay Gap off my charts. And I'm gonna take the survey get not the pay rate, get the range I gave you from 3853 |
| 420 | 01:17:06,450 --> 01:17:06,840 | and a half, |
| 421 | 01:17:07,920 --> 01:17:22,200 | to 313. I'm gonna take that off. So the only levels I have now is yesterday's Basa liquidity pool high at 3867. Even. And I have now 3815 and a quarter, and |
| 422 | 01:17:22,200 --> 01:17:33,780 | 37 70.75. Okay, those, those three levels, that's the only levels I have on my chart, there's nothing else on it at all. And I'm watching to see what we get in |
| 423 | 01:17:33,780 --> 01:17:48,780 | regards to the opening at 930. Just think just keep grinding, like a little higher each time inside we small little correction grind slowly higher. That's |
| 424 | 01:17:48,810 --> 01:18:00,840 | that's the worst case scenario. And when I was a younger man, I got hurt a lot trying to do that with bonds. I had less than six months experience. And I |
| 425 | 01:18:00,840 --> 01:18:10,740 | always sold like bearish divergences on this stochastic and I was using an hourly chart to do it. And every time I saw a bearish divergence, I was trying |
| 426 | 01:18:10,740 --> 01:18:20,190 | to sell short cuz I was like, okay, it went up to give me a bearish divergence. That's, that's what I was viewing as not realizing that the profile could |
| 427 | 01:18:20,310 --> 01:18:30,210 | potentially just keep grinding higher and you buying it didn't make any sense. And trying to short it made better sense. But I ended up getting smashed, |
| 428 | 01:18:30,480 --> 01:18:39,930 | because I would do you 1520 different trades going short and each one being worse than the previous one. So that's always a problem on a day like this. So |
| 429 | 01:18:39,930 --> 01:18:46,080 | that's why I outlined that liquidity void and outline it mapped it out for you so that you know what you're looking for. Even if you don't have the 15 second |
| 430 | 01:18:46,080 --> 01:19:00,840 | chart, I can tweak that when we're done. You can actually see the liquidity what I'm referring to. But those pockets in price action, there's porous weeks, okay, |
| 431 | 01:19:00,900 --> 01:19:12,510 | where there's no trading at all. They are some of the best draws on liquidity. But you unfortunately have to sit in you have to wait for the market to keep |
| 432 | 01:19:12,510 --> 01:19:24,210 | putting enough people in as counterparty like every single one of these highs on your one minute chart. Someone has tried to fade that and go short. Now, I'm |
| 433 | 01:19:24,210 --> 01:19:35,130 | telling you, I'm interested in being short. But there's been no setup. Every framework that I've given to say, Okay, let's see if it does this. It just keeps |
| 434 | 01:19:35,130 --> 01:19:45,330 | grinding higher, but it's not grinding a lot higher. Notice that it's just a nuisance, you're going higher. So there's nothing that excites me about buying |
| 435 | 01:19:45,330 --> 01:19:59,550 | it. And as much as I want to see something that gravitate towards that 3015 and quarter level. Nothing is in play yet. There's no setup. So I can see how when I |
| 436 | 01:19:59,550 --> 01:20:08,970 | was 20 rolled, how I would have really hurt myself multiple times in here trying to do something with an indicator versus just waiting for price to show its |
| 437 | 01:20:08,970 --> 01:20:23,280 | hand. It's not done that yet. So we're above 3867 Still, we've had 1234 times we've moved into a higher high but very shallow it hasn't even been 20 handles |
| 438 | 01:20:23,310 --> 01:20:30,630 | above yesterday's 3867 by some liquidity pool. That's it can't go higher on the scene it hasn't done so yet. |
| 439 | 01:20:40,350 --> 01:20:41,160 | Dangerous |
| 440 | 01:20:42,450 --> 01:21:28,740 | daily travel All right, so let's take a look at the deal that was drawn to |
| 441 | 01:21:34,860 --> 01:21:37,710 | Alright, so if you go up to your daily chart on es, |
| 442 | 01:21:39,210 --> 01:21:41,340 | if you're falling on us 500. |
| 443 | 01:21:44,100 --> 01:22:00,000 | I'm not sure if it's going to line up the same way. The candle on September 15 2022 is a Thursday, the closing price at 3919 and a quarter to the opening |
| 444 | 01:22:00,000 --> 01:22:20,070 | price of candle. September 16 2020, as of Friday, the opening price at 39 04. So again, the closing price on candle, September 15 2022. That is 3919 and a |
| 445 | 01:22:20,070 --> 01:22:35,460 | quarter and the opening price at 39 04. On candle September 16. That is a fair Vega. And while I don't subscribe to the idea that going above 3928 PI on |
| 446 | 01:22:35,970 --> 01:22:47,970 | November 1, they could still push this into that retest the fair value gap that I just outlined. So you want to have that on your chart too. So that might be |
| 447 | 01:22:47,970 --> 01:22:55,080 | just a little bit more reflects going into the open and maybe you can see some kind of an attempt to get down into |
| 448 | 01:22:57,900 --> 01:23:01,800 | yesterday's highs 30 For the three quarters. |
| 449 | 01:23:12,900 --> 01:23:24,990 | If you look at the candle, so on a daily timeframe, by the way, if you look at the November 1 high and compare that with the high on October 28. November 1 is |
| 450 | 01:23:24,990 --> 01:23:34,680 | slightly higher. That's the reason why I'm not a fan even though if you go all the way back over to the 20th of September, you could argue and say that's |
| 451 | 01:23:34,680 --> 01:23:45,150 | relatively equal highs in it, you Yeah, I guess you could, I mean, it can do that. And I'd be wrong. But I don't, I don't subscribe to that at this moment. |
| 452 | 01:23:45,180 --> 01:23:54,120 | Actually, if we go above that, I don't see that as going above those relative equal highs and then fading going lower, I would think there was if it was gonna |
| 453 | 01:23:54,120 --> 01:24:06,900 | go there, it's going to go above 3981. So that that's why I'm saying I don't like the idea or subscribe to the idea that the first of November is high is the |
| 454 | 01:24:06,900 --> 01:24:21,600 | draw I could be wrong. I'm dropping back down to a 15 minute timeframe. Now with that fair value got on chart and you can see how it looks like it wants to reach |
| 455 | 01:24:21,600 --> 01:24:22,800 | up and below that one |
| 456 | 01:24:29,160 --> 01:24:33,600 | just above 30 939 02 |
| 457 | 01:24:43,920 --> 01:24:52,980 | If I was booking and making market for ETS, I would I would hit 3902 and then sync it below 3867 |
| 458 | 01:24:54,690 --> 01:25:01,800 | Right at the opening 930 Like I would right there and then collapse it to go back below 3867 So |
| 459 | 01:25:03,330 --> 01:25:13,830 | 39 to hit it maybe 35 Flex into that favor I got one more time and then reject that sent down the 3067 that's how I would make the market for ES I was dealing |
| 460 | 01:25:15,990 --> 01:25:18,210 | because everybody's gonna look on one side of the street |
| 461 | 01:26:15,900 --> 01:26:17,190 | can you guys hear me still? |
| 462 | 01:26:18,210 --> 01:26:22,890 | I'm not sure if it disconnected me because I close the second my texture my wife |
| 463 | 01:26:26,700 --> 01:26:32,400 | put my phone screen asleep. I'm not sure if you can still hear me. Can you hear me? |
| 464 | 01:26:35,760 --> 01:26:37,050 | Can you hear me I'm waiting for a tweet. |
| 465 | 01:26:39,120 --> 01:26:40,680 | Dreaming of electric thank you |
| 466 | 01:26:48,930 --> 01:26:53,730 | you may hear the painters upstairs stomping around. Apologize if that's the case. |
| 467 | 01:26:54,329 --> 01:27:04,919 | I promise you I'm not conducting long dancing instructions. I don't know where it comes from folks. |
| 468 | 01:27:05,789 --> 01:27:22,289 | Right off the cuff. All right, a minute and a half the open at 930. I promise in 2023 We'll have days where you'll see me calling the markets and moving right |
| 469 | 01:27:22,289 --> 01:27:31,619 | now today is an opportunity for you see why we do not do CPI number. And treat this the same way. I don't need to do this again for FOMC. I've already done |
| 470 | 01:27:31,619 --> 01:27:39,899 | that in the past too. But these two types of reports, hands off, wait until they hit the market wait for the market to open up and then let that opening range |
| 471 | 01:27:39,899 --> 01:27:50,129 | happen that first 15 or 30 minutes, let that happen. Then, then you can trust your technicals right now. It's all about making it attractive, they're putting |
| 472 | 01:27:50,129 --> 01:27:51,059 | lipstick on a pig |
| 473 | 01:27:53,280 --> 01:27:54,510 | nothing against pigs |
| 474 | 01:28:19,410 --> 01:28:30,450 | every time they dropped something upstairs, or if I'm in another room, I'm freaking out. We had Canadian hardwood floors. In this house, it was purchased |
| 475 | 01:28:30,480 --> 01:28:41,370 | the builders, they had it done custom here. And it's a really really nice hardwood floor and not so long to mess it up. Alright, 930 opening here we go. |
| 476 | 01:28:41,430 --> 01:28:51,630 | What's the fair value gap? Run at 392 395 level. See if we get any kind of reaction off of that. I'm on a five minute chart right now. |
| 477 | 01:28:58,590 --> 01:29:06,840 | All one sided disc pushed right from the CPI number 833 to 100 |
| 478 | 01:29:07,650 --> 01:29:10,200 | and psychological level. |
| 479 | 01:29:11,910 --> 01:29:22,920 | That's a level there's a lot of liquidity, sitting there live large funds and such and have their stops above that thinking it's safe. That's the only reason |
| 480 | 01:29:22,920 --> 01:29:34,200 | why I put your attention on that fair value gap again, but we've already traded their ICT. Yeah. And I don't teach to find the man where it's one and done or we |
| 481 | 01:29:34,200 --> 01:29:42,780 | demand fresh zones. We don't trade zones. There's always going to be three levels. If it's a range of like a fair value gap. It's gonna be below the |
| 482 | 01:29:42,780 --> 01:29:51,780 | midpoint or the high okay and based on where you are in the grand scheme of market structure and your market profile, not market profile in the sense that |
| 483 | 01:29:51,780 --> 01:30:03,870 | like the use of those horizontal vertical, sorry, horizontal volume bars. I don't have any faith in that But profiles like a like a roadmap if you will of |
| 484 | 01:30:03,870 --> 01:30:18,690 | the day or week see like that that crashing sound like that it makes me to go up here and start spraying like like don't mess my half that mean |
| 485 | 01:30:32,340 --> 01:30:41,820 | okay so on the five minute chart we have near term sellside liquidity resting at around 3870 3869 |
| 486 | 01:30:48,090 --> 01:30:51,450 | You can really see the three drives higher on the five minute chart nice |
| 487 | 01:30:53,460 --> 01:31:04,200 | if we can get a lower high on the next five minute candle in that clean and that candle closes, then we would have essentially three swing highs break now we |
| 488 | 01:31:04,200 --> 01:31:12,060 | don't have it but it's likely to pan out I would like to have seen it trade up into that fair value gap then create that swing high on the five minute chart |
| 489 | 01:31:12,630 --> 01:31:20,340 | that would be a good context to see if we start seeing a move lower into that 3869 level where sell signs resting |
| 490 | 01:31:34,800 --> 01:31:36,000 | storm warrior |
| 491 | 01:31:36,930 --> 01:31:49,200 | I always record these Twitter spaces but I don't put them on my YouTube because sometimes I lose control of my tongue and talking language I don't really want |
| 492 | 01:31:49,200 --> 01:31:57,840 | to have on the YouTube channel but the playback is available on Twitter just find that link and click on I'm not sure if they expired that I know there's a |
| 493 | 01:31:57,840 --> 01:32:03,030 | couple guys that are taking my stuff and put them on other places I don't know what they're doing with it but |
| 494 | 01:32:16,530 --> 01:32:38,670 | so let's go down to a four minute chart not three minutes after their 211 minute |
| 495 | 01:32:38,670 --> 01:32:51,330 | chart you have a fair value gap on the 930 candle to 930 to candle see that this will be an aggressive really really aggressive one |
| 496 | 01:32:53,340 --> 01:32:57,960 | that's relatively small in terms of risk |
| 497 | 01:33:02,370 --> 01:33:05,400 | only a range not in the race that they wouldn't go higher |
| 498 | 01:33:26,160 --> 01:33:29,250 | yeah just a couple of people tweeting where you can get my |
| 499 | 01:33:30,840 --> 01:33:33,630 | archives of the Twitter spaces I have |
| 500 | 01:33:33,630 --> 01:33:38,430 | no interest in managing that that's okay I don't care to was the one who said I said |
| 501 | 01:33:39,270 --> 01:33:40,020 | it just rains |
| 502 | 01:33:44,340 --> 01:33:51,090 | Alright, so on a one minute chart. You want to have your chart kind of like stretched out vertically. |
| 503 | 01:33:52,740 --> 01:33:53,730 | Really really good |
| 504 | 01:33:57,990 --> 01:34:22,290 | they've been loud the last few days but today they're really being loud. Look at your candle at 932 Okay, so it should be a up close candle draw draw a either a |
| 505 | 01:34:22,290 --> 01:34:37,170 | trendline or a rectangle if you will, from that candles high and the low of candle 930. Okay, this small little gap in their small little short term shift |
| 506 | 01:34:37,170 --> 01:34:50,820 | and structure at the 927 low the only thing stands in its way is it didn't hit that area you got I thought it hit that fair value gap and traded up into that |
| 507 | 01:34:50,820 --> 01:35:03,120 | nine I'm sorry 3902 level or 39 A one and three quarters. If it were to hit that if it trades to me line 32 I will be short that I'm just putting it out there |
| 508 | 01:35:03,120 --> 01:35:11,760 | right now. It's just a study for right now. I'm not pushing a button on it. So if you were comparing contrasting like, what would make me want to take a trade, |
| 509 | 01:35:12,210 --> 01:35:18,360 | you know, why would I be hesitant about taking a trade? So I get questions all the time. How do you know when to pick this and when to pick that I liked that |
| 510 | 01:35:18,360 --> 01:35:29,340 | fair value gap up there comes I'm sorry, I was saying for you to get the volume imbalance at 39. Two I liked that level. If it would have hit that first. We |
| 511 | 01:35:29,340 --> 01:35:30,030 | haven't seen that |
| 512 | 01:35:51,420 --> 01:35:53,850 | looks like it wants to take out that 3867. |
| 513 | 01:36:15,510 --> 01:36:28,200 | On your one minute chart, you should be able to see how there's relative equal lows on the candle at 850 and the candle at 853. |
| 514 | 01:36:31,590 --> 01:36:32,880 | So sell Cibolo there |
| 515 | 01:36:34,590 --> 01:36:35,940 | and he had the gap down |
| 516 | 01:36:41,490 --> 01:36:55,380 | 3052 Not 3032 3850. And those are prices 3050 even to a low of 3853 and a half |
| 517 | 01:36:56,640 --> 01:37:01,950 | so that fair value cap that's a discount |
| 518 | 01:37:02,190 --> 01:37:15,390 | array I know there's gonna be complaints about this this would have been so much better if you would just let us see your charts but this is to me much more |
| 519 | 01:37:15,390 --> 01:37:20,520 | engaging because it's allowing you to do the work on your part. |
| 520 | 01:37:22,020 --> 01:37:26,940 | But it's harder Yes. It's supposed to be supposed to be |
| 521 | 01:37:28,230 --> 01:37:29,010 | it was easy everybody |
| 522 | 01:37:46,410 --> 01:38:02,640 | the candle at 935 should be an up close candle. I don't want to see it go above the midpoint of that body I want to see it's near stay heavy like man alive I'm |
| 523 | 01:38:02,640 --> 01:38:16,050 | here to go up here and start swinging shit I've had to leave you several times in the last week or so because it's just too much for me to take like I |
| 524 | 01:38:16,050 --> 01:38:17,970 | understand they're working on that but good grief |
| 525 | 01:38:45,870 --> 01:39:02,640 | Okay, so if you take that candle, I mentioned at the 935 Good grief. The 935 If you put a Fibonacci on that one. And you you're measuring what you're doing is |
| 526 | 01:39:02,640 --> 01:39:15,900 | you're measuring that candles high to low in that 50% level, that's midpoint. Okay. That's called mean threshold. That's the halfway point of that candle. We |
| 527 | 01:39:15,900 --> 01:39:25,170 | don't want to see it go above that. Now. It's just momentarily went just like a half a point or something about that. And now we're we're reacting nicely off |
| 528 | 01:39:25,170 --> 01:39:33,990 | that that's what we want to see. Now. We want to see that continuing and heaviness remain into 3867. Maybe accelerate down in 3050 to |
| 529 | 01:39:36,780 --> 01:39:37,980 | nothing so it makes sense. |
| 530 | 01:39:40,620 --> 01:39:47,010 | Going back above the mean threshold, we'll just call it 3885. Anything above 3085 is a no touch. |
| 531 | 01:39:47,040 --> 01:40:44,640 | It would be no interest at all for me. And I'd have to wait until probably 1030 actually feels weird without him not being here. Usually I'm talking to him |
| 532 | 01:40:46,770 --> 01:40:56,730 | he's asking what do you what about this? What about that and then I'm usually asking him don't say nothing right now I'm thinking growing up under ICT it's |
| 533 | 01:40:56,730 --> 01:40:57,180 | naive to |
| 534 | 01:41:05,880 --> 01:41:10,020 | think these painters or pistol throw up or stomp it around again pay good money they just calm down |
| 535 | 01:41:22,170 --> 01:41:33,870 | Okay, same thing this outlined moments ago with the candle on 935 on one minute candle, we want to see the candle at 939 we don't want to see the half of that |
| 536 | 01:41:33,870 --> 01:41:39,900 | candle give up its ghost either we don't want we don't want to see it just roll your topic because then it would mean that we're going to go up into that fair |
| 537 | 01:41:39,900 --> 01:41:44,340 | value gap at 3091 ish or thereabouts. |
| 538 | 01:42:07,170 --> 01:42:15,660 | This is not a good technical debt. So if you're looking at Technically, there isn't a lot of cleanness to it, it's a lot of just pushing higher pushing higher |
| 539 | 01:42:15,660 --> 01:42:20,910 | pushing higher and just really sloppy static price delivery. |
| 540 | 01:43:19,560 --> 01:43:37,710 | Now look at the range between the high formed at. Again, everything's one on one and chart now. Look at your high on 930 to the low formed at 942. The only |
| 541 | 01:43:37,710 --> 01:43:51,240 | imbalance that exists in that range is between the high on 932 scandal and the low at 930. Scandal. So that little tiny little Faraday gap right there. It's |
| 542 | 01:43:51,270 --> 01:44:03,180 | relatively smooth, if you look at the candles at 932 to 936. To that might be beat really just traded up to that's all saying if we go through the midpoint of |
| 543 | 01:44:03,180 --> 01:44:11,670 | the candle at nine or nine that would send the algorithm up into that area there and revisit that now do we trade to that level, you roll over top of it make a |
| 544 | 01:44:11,670 --> 01:44:21,150 | higher high good because that fair value can get on the call to fair value get the volume imbalance up at that 39 Or two. I would have favored that being hit |
| 545 | 01:44:21,150 --> 01:44:30,540 | first at the 930 opening but we dropped down so that may have been what we've done. They dropped it down getting people on chase it put your stop above the |
| 546 | 01:44:30,540 --> 01:44:40,380 | high at 930 and then you run into that volume imbalance at 930 highs take out three nine or two three no three maybe 395 |
| 547 | 01:44:46,770 --> 01:44:58,950 | Look at your candle right now in one minute how it's coming back down into the candle at 944 That right there. I like to see that and now like to see it move |
| 548 | 01:44:58,950 --> 01:45:03,030 | continuously higher up into that fear Vega and maybe even into that 3902. |
| 549 | 01:45:55,560 --> 01:46:13,800 | Thank you smooth highs at the 932 level I'm sorry not 32 Candle rather they have been repriced, to There you go. Back up here Vega between the 930 candle and the |
| 550 | 01:46:13,800 --> 01:46:23,100 | 930 to candidate very vague as well referring to there that was the we got through the candles midpoint on that 939 One that candle graphic back there for |
| 551 | 01:46:23,100 --> 01:46:23,760 | your breakout, which |
| 552 | 01:46:23,850 --> 01:46:24,570 | we've seen here |
| 553 | 01:46:28,380 --> 01:46:41,310 | because we did not trade it and then events if they're new injury, a 1.5 ahead of the 930 opening or right after 930 I'm suspecting that that will likely try |
| 554 | 01:46:41,310 --> 01:46:51,360 | to gravitate towards it can respect this fair value gap here. But because we didn't trade to the volume and balance it during the 101 3902 area, I would be |
| 555 | 01:46:51,390 --> 01:47:01,770 | leery taking that short here if I didn't have the volume imbalance to contend with. I would sell short here, but I'm not doing it because I want to give it a |
| 556 | 01:47:01,770 --> 01:47:13,890 | chance to see if it means anything today. And nothing in this price action so far is terribly exciting, like I like it's nothing. It's nothing to be worrying |
| 557 | 01:47:13,890 --> 01:47:14,520 | about missing. |
| 558 | 01:47:17,460 --> 01:47:28,200 | It's small little movements so far, with really just nothing terribly exciting. All right. |
| 559 | 01:47:28,410 --> 01:47:38,370 | Finally, fair pay gap. Now they have been talking about for the one minute chart that has now been repriced to not rebalanced. It's been completely repriced, to |
| 560 | 01:47:38,370 --> 01:47:48,870 | the low of the candle at 930. And we want to see if it wants to run for the buy side, it's resting on anyone that went short today at 930. Trading up into that |
| 561 | 01:47:48,870 --> 01:47:53,160 | volume and bounce it you know 39 to 35 in that vicinity. |
| 562 | 01:47:58,350 --> 01:48:08,400 | Earlier when I was talking to how you see that Mickey and the treatment names of the high of the candle at 944. That is my immediate rebounds. So it trades down |
| 563 | 01:48:08,460 --> 01:48:18,540 | and overlaps the previous candle when you're bullish. That's a buy. So it acts like a fair value gap. So you can go long in there and use the stop loss will be |
| 564 | 01:48:18,540 --> 01:48:29,280 | great below the candle that you're looking to overlap on that it's a really nice high frequency entry. It happens a lot every time frame multiple times. When you |
| 565 | 01:48:29,280 --> 01:48:32,280 | watch me run off the couch real quick many times I'm using that |
| 566 | 01:48:37,050 --> 01:48:43,650 | in his day, opening range high that comes in at |
| 567 | 01:48:46,290 --> 01:48:59,460 | 3899 and a half. So we're gonna be looking for 3900 to be traded To and Through. Same thing here, candidate for immediate rebounding that's on the one minute |
| 568 | 01:48:59,460 --> 01:49:12,840 | candle look at your candle at 948 The high you're gonna see it like doesn't have to be the fact that we've been trained to get into the range of the 949 candle. |
| 569 | 01:49:13,320 --> 01:49:21,300 | I like that because it's ahead of myself recording being likely being taken. This is like an ultra ultra short term scalping. |
| 570 | 01:49:23,970 --> 01:49:25,530 | It should be priced at 3900 |
| 571 | 01:49:27,120 --> 01:49:38,670 | There you go and give it to us give it to us you go. Goodness Look at that. In three days, trust me bringing in a lot of fun. |
| 572 | 01:49:40,320 --> 01:49:46,020 | Let me see if we get a chance to get up into that |
| 573 | 01:49:49,620 --> 01:49:57,510 | or not Nana to maybe because my obsessive compulsive is flaring. |
| 574 | 01:50:10,740 --> 01:50:35,100 | JD say my volume. It's nothing wrong with the volume. You guys not hear me well. You hear me Hello. Can you hear me okay, cool. Thank you. Alright, so we've |
| 575 | 01:50:35,100 --> 01:50:50,670 | taken by side on the opening range high at 930 We hit the volume imbalance, look at the reaction so far and that nice now it's not trade it's not give me an |
| 576 | 01:50:50,670 --> 01:51:01,770 | entry it's observing why price is going to go where it's gonna go and what it should do want to get to there it gives us something to frame where should |
| 577 | 01:51:01,980 --> 01:51:15,120 | formations or reactions occur. Okay, I've done lessons on that and it's important to understand Okay, now we're gonna reverse that immediate rebalance |
| 578 | 01:51:15,180 --> 01:51:25,740 | Okay, we have not had a shift in market structure but now look at the candles low on 951 at one minute candle we traded back up inside the range of the 951 |
| 579 | 01:51:25,740 --> 01:51:34,110 | Candle went up to it immediate rebalance we want to see if it wants to deliver down towards the sell side at 3870. |
| 580 | 01:52:25,050 --> 01:52:37,290 | Hire hire this point it like kind of two or higher not not interesting to me at all. So I wouldn't want to see that at all. If it does that it's probably going |
| 581 | 01:52:37,290 --> 01:52:41,820 | to keep on pressing up into and I'll be wrong in regards to that |
| 582 | 01:52:44,700 --> 01:52:49,080 | old high which I said it wasn't interested in and call it price |
| 583 | 01:52:58,080 --> 01:53:11,340 | 39 The highs at November 1. If we go into 39 threes, then I would expect it to try to at least run the high on |
| 584 | 01:53:12,930 --> 01:53:13,890 | November 2. |
| 585 | 01:53:16,500 --> 01:53:17,820 | Right now I'm giving it the |
| 586 | 01:53:24,720 --> 01:53:30,180 | opportunity to see if he wants to keep the high end place it just took out for nine days high |
| 587 | 01:53:36,540 --> 01:53:42,720 | it looks like it wants a 100 and 3900s dig in here |
| 588 | 01:53:51,870 --> 01:54:00,780 | so now revisiting that volume imbalance because we mentioned that that was a likely drop on the upside. We would now look for the midpoint of that. That will |
| 589 | 01:54:00,780 --> 01:54:08,970 | be the next objective on the upside and or its high end that would be barking. Like |
| 590 | 01:54:10,470 --> 01:54:56,880 | say 3910 Three 911 ish thereabouts. Hold on a minute and 3920. Hold on a second. |
| 591 | 01:55:21,030 --> 01:55:32,640 | Alright, so had an opportunity to reject because we've taken out 930 is high now twice so I would favor midpoint 3910 to 3919 |
| 592 | 01:55:56,970 --> 01:55:58,920 | Okay down close candle at |
| 593 | 01:56:00,750 --> 01:56:17,400 | 951 potential bullish order block fair value gap that would be repriced on candle 955 So if it starts to rally up here look for 3911 and 3919 failure to go |
| 594 | 01:56:17,400 --> 01:56:26,760 | higher and going below 3897 and a quarter I'm sorry three quarters would nullify that idea |
| 595 | 01:56:44,340 --> 01:56:54,060 | whole lot more involved when the markets not clean which is the reason why I teach low resistance liquidity runs if it isn't obvious isn't one sided you're |
| 596 | 01:56:54,060 --> 01:56:57,750 | gonna have to contend with this back and forth constant reading constant reading |
| 597 | 01:57:04,470 --> 01:57:11,730 | if you don't have the experience obviously you can see how quickly you could hurt yourself because so many people are in a hurry to get to that live account |
| 598 | 01:57:11,760 --> 01:57:19,200 | give me a funded account so I can get real money and then when you find out that you can't do it well because you're impulsive or you don't really understand the |
| 599 | 01:57:19,200 --> 01:57:25,110 | concepts it's because you watch the videos it's very frustrating. So you had to give yourself permission |
| 600 | 01:57:42,060 --> 01:57:54,960 | here we go something to pay the bills with |
| 601 | 01:58:20,580 --> 01:58:32,910 | alright so if you pay for treated that fair value gap as outlined in using the order blocks, you should already be parceled out leaving something to see if you |
| 602 | 01:58:32,910 --> 01:58:33,210 | can get |
| 603 | 01:58:33,300 --> 01:58:34,890 | 3018. |
| 604 | 01:58:57,360 --> 01:59:04,830 | If you don't have that volume imbalance that had on the chart I mentioned at the beginning of the lesson that really wasn't at the beginning that it was near the |
| 605 | 01:59:04,830 --> 01:59:12,690 | beginning of you won't fully appreciate where you're at right now in the context of where prices and why it's gravitating. |
| 606 | 01:59:37,140 --> 01:59:47,760 | Thank you Mike the destroyer is a super helpful if you do YouTube, I think I'd prefer no chart much more engaging. That's that was my thought process. Come |
| 607 | 01:59:47,760 --> 02:00:00,180 | with a Squawk Box it makes you think and see it fine on your chart. Holding your hand and walking you through a chart. It's not the same as really learning It |
| 608 | 02:00:00,180 --> 02:00:08,700 | forces you to understand what I'm saying in the chart. I'm saying it like I can't edit this you're all making copies of it so it either pans out or it |
| 609 | 02:00:08,700 --> 02:00:09,060 | doesn't |
| 610 | 02:00:18,300 --> 02:00:24,420 | and then he's mad one more off here |
| 611 | 02:00:48,690 --> 02:00:50,730 | here's your 97 get the 20 print |
| 612 | 02:01:10,830 --> 02:01:13,260 | you should be parceled here |
| 613 | 02:01:37,590 --> 02:01:46,320 | now see that in supply and demand Elliot still looking for a week. |
| 614 | 02:01:49,350 --> 02:01:52,140 | So I think that's going to be it for this morning |
| 615 | 02:01:57,450 --> 02:01:58,890 | we've done enough for government work. |
| 616 | 02:02:03,210 --> 02:02:14,760 | So, let me recap this and make a little bit of sense out of it. Some of you are gonna be lost. Everyone here live, that you are here live, you heard me outline |
| 617 | 02:02:14,760 --> 02:02:27,570 | everything. Everything in proper context, everything you point to before the fact that explaining why in the best way I can and still follow price action. |
| 618 | 02:02:27,570 --> 02:02:39,750 | Now obviously, the idea of knowing when to avoid a trade, what market drivers to avoid, and then wait for the market to give you clues as to what it wants to do. |
| 619 | 02:02:40,440 --> 02:02:47,550 | Using higher timeframe, PV arrays, nothing that's in retail. Okay, I've seen a couple guys I've already blocked on and I'm telling you a reason why I blocked |
| 620 | 02:02:47,580 --> 02:02:53,610 | because they're gonna tell you I blocked them because they're calling me for on them hiding from the No, I'm tired of seeing people say the stuff that I teach |
| 621 | 02:02:53,640 --> 02:03:04,470 | is renamed retail logic. They're liars. Okay, and I have a $500,000 bounty out there for someone to break down in detail where I started before 1996 and |
| 622 | 02:03:04,470 --> 02:03:20,220 | writing in video anywhere it's not. So walking you through life price action like this. Okay. Essentially, this is the best way of mentoring. Because if the |
| 623 | 02:03:20,220 --> 02:03:35,820 | person you're learning from can identify where there's problems where precision will be muddled, muddled. Less likely to be obtained. That means that they have |
| 624 | 02:03:36,300 --> 02:03:47,040 | clarity, you have the vision to see, okay, there's potential for problems, okay, for things to be obvious. So as a developing student, you want to have a |
| 625 | 02:03:47,040 --> 02:03:56,100 | educator and mentor someone that's going to be able to know what that's like. And you have to be around the block for a long time, lose lots of money, and |
| 626 | 02:03:56,100 --> 02:04:05,280 | make lots of money. Knowing this is what I did when I lost money. And this is what I did when I made money. And this is where I found the greatest increases |
| 627 | 02:04:05,280 --> 02:04:20,160 | and my understanding. Having that that prowess, that experience that is such a short commodity in this industry, because there are people out there that are |
| 628 | 02:04:20,880 --> 02:04:28,350 | extremely profitable, but they're not in the business of giving you their time like this. They're not interested, they don't care. It's not that doesn't make |
| 629 | 02:04:28,350 --> 02:04:36,960 | them a bad person. It just means that they just don't care enough to sit down and give their time because their time is too valuable. They don't have that |
| 630 | 02:04:36,960 --> 02:04:44,220 | mindset to want to be able to share. They go in here to kill it. And they do their thing. They run your life and there it is. Does that make them a bad |
| 631 | 02:04:44,220 --> 02:04:56,070 | person because they will share it with you. Okay. I am a person that I have a promise I gotta keep. So I do this. I love doing it. But it's important for you |
| 632 | 02:04:56,070 --> 02:05:07,350 | to contrast what it is that I do versus what everybody says I do or don't do. If I can't see it, if I can't outline it, before it happens real time, then these |
| 633 | 02:05:07,350 --> 02:05:20,550 | concepts work. I think everybody can agree with that, right? If I can outline where it's going to go, and why it's likely to go there, when it should happen, |
| 634 | 02:05:20,880 --> 02:05:32,190 | then that means what that means there's an algorithm, that means I've had my fingerprints all over it. Okay, knowing why price should go to these levels, |
| 635 | 02:05:32,520 --> 02:05:45,630 | that are not in retail books, is an advantage. It's an unfair advantage against retail traders. And yes, the Goldman Sachs alumni, they have no idea about this |
| 636 | 02:05:45,630 --> 02:05:56,220 | stuff. They have no idea that there's things that I've shown in previous discussions and lectures and live sessions. You know, you're not looking at my |
| 637 | 02:05:56,220 --> 02:06:11,250 | chart. But I walked you through this morning showed you where the problem areas or where the difficulties would be, what it should do what it shouldn't do. And, |
| 638 | 02:06:11,310 --> 02:06:24,090 | honestly, this is a difficult, difficult trading day today. So if you had a hard time looking at it, and understanding number one, it's, it's good, that means |
| 639 | 02:06:24,090 --> 02:06:33,360 | you're going to dig into your chart, you're going to listen to this recording again, and look and observe. But only the people that were here live, that were |
| 640 | 02:06:33,360 --> 02:06:40,440 | hearing me talk about the one minute candles before they painted, why it should do this, where it should go, why should it draw to this level, why it shouldn't |
| 641 | 02:06:40,440 --> 02:06:51,870 | be doing this? If it does, this is problematic, and then it's gonna go here, all those facets, they string together to give you a reason to not fear missing a |
| 642 | 02:06:51,870 --> 02:07:02,340 | move, because new moves are gonna. And I don't feel regret if I don't take something because I knew I have other opportunities and other tools that allow |
| 643 | 02:07:02,340 --> 02:07:14,070 | me to participate and build a bridge. The bridge was this morning, once we went through the 930, high we traded down, we wanted to see it want to go towards |
| 644 | 02:07:14,070 --> 02:07:23,400 | sell side, it failed, it wouldn't have been able to do that. Once we ran out the high again, to do that, again, indicated what we would be pressing into that |
| 645 | 02:07:23,850 --> 02:07:33,090 | volume imbalance from the daily chart that 3902 through nine to five Aries, I was saying there's gonna likely go up into that we traded up into it, and then |
| 646 | 02:07:33,090 --> 02:07:40,080 | came back down into a bullish order block, which I outlined, go back and listen to the recording, and there's a small little bit of a gap. It trades down into |
| 647 | 02:07:40,080 --> 02:07:51,750 | that. And the opportunity is to reach into the constant encouragement of that volume imbalance. And what that means is constant encouragement is the midpoint |
| 648 | 02:07:52,440 --> 02:08:07,350 | of any kind of gap. A candle? The midpoint of that is mean threshold. It's always basically 50%. Okay, it's a it's a halfway point. But those levels with |
| 649 | 02:08:07,350 --> 02:08:15,900 | the low of the gap. And the high the gap. It's three levels very specific. I'm not trading and supply demand zones where it's ambiguous. Hope you find the |
| 650 | 02:08:15,900 --> 02:08:27,630 | right price. No, I teach my students and I showcase where these levels are specifically. And I walked you through it this morning. Highly distracted with |
| 651 | 02:08:27,630 --> 02:08:36,630 | these people have in my first floor stomping and banging dropping shows. I'm flipping out right now. I'm kind of proud of myself that I didn't lose my shit |
| 652 | 02:08:36,630 --> 02:08:47,610 | earlier. But I'm focusing on these candles. So I'm trying to keep that that focus there. But the run from the low of volume imbalance in that fair value gap |
| 653 | 02:08:47,640 --> 02:08:58,440 | to the high daily volume imbalance. And I'll show you a chart. And you can see my executions too. You'll see where I got in based on what I explained to you. |
| 654 | 02:08:59,370 --> 02:09:10,860 | And you'll see where I took parcels. And it'll make sense to you. But if you watch this on me that watch isn't the best choice of words here. Listening to it |
| 655 | 02:09:12,510 --> 02:09:23,250 | isn't going to be the same as the experience for those of you that were here live. So you had the opportunity to listen to me. Squawk, talk about where there |
| 656 | 02:09:23,250 --> 02:09:32,700 | is likely this scenario to unfold, pan out. If it doesn't do this, this is what's going to draw to next. There's no setup here. There's nothing here. We're |
| 657 | 02:09:32,700 --> 02:09:39,900 | looking for this we're looking for that it's just meandering around. It's an ugly day so far. And then finally, what does it do? It gives us the clue we're |
| 658 | 02:09:39,900 --> 02:09:48,300 | looking for I wanted to see a trade off and that daily volume imbalance if it wasn't going to give me the setup that I wanted to see for a short into that |
| 659 | 02:09:48,510 --> 02:09:59,370 | liquidity void, which will be used at a later time now. There's no there was no short for me. But the fair value got long, going into that daily volume and |
| 660 | 02:09:59,370 --> 02:10:10,650 | balance That was the one that we had to basically submit to, because he was not willing to give us a selling opportunity didn't give us a breakdown. He didn't |
| 661 | 02:10:10,650 --> 02:10:19,920 | give us a fair value got to sell short into. And I mentioned the fair value gap earlier, after the 930 opening. While it was drawing liquidity, I said that |
| 662 | 02:10:19,920 --> 02:10:30,420 | that's not something that I see as a shorting opportunity. Go back and listen, you can't edit it, I can't edit it, it's all live. Okay. I'm suggesting that |
| 663 | 02:10:30,420 --> 02:10:40,410 | that would be something that's not a short for me. If we didn't have the daily volume, imbalance, I would have shorted it. That was my words, were very close |
| 664 | 02:10:40,410 --> 02:10:48,870 | to it. But because we had that daily volume imbalance, and it didn't trade to it at 930. That's where market profiling and narrative comes in market making. |
| 665 | 02:10:49,140 --> 02:11:00,900 | Okay. So because it didn't trade up into that daily volume imbalance. I can't feel confident to sell at the fair value gap. But I mentioned if it did, I |
| 666 | 02:11:00,900 --> 02:11:12,000 | wouldn't care about it. I can't take that trade deal. Why? Because the narrative I outlined just now and then that it didn't take out the 930 high into that |
| 667 | 02:11:12,030 --> 02:11:25,320 | daily volume imbalance at 3901 and three quarters to 3920. Because that was unfinished business. That was the reason why I was unwilling to sell short at |
| 668 | 02:11:25,320 --> 02:11:32,130 | that fair date. Yeah. How do you know when the sell short, a fair value gap or by fear of a gap and when to ignore them? I've walked you through it live today. |
| 669 | 02:11:34,350 --> 02:11:42,000 | There's a lot to it, folks. That's why I'm saying like my private mentorship flipped out. When I told him I was gonna put the core content lessons on |
| 670 | 02:11:42,360 --> 02:11:46,020 | YouTube. You gave it away? No, I didn't, I gave away my language. |
| 671 | 02:11:47,580 --> 02:11:56,730 | But you have to study your ass off. And you gotta be under my wing like this. This is what they had. They had this. The first year, me sitting down and |
| 672 | 02:11:56,730 --> 02:12:05,040 | explaining but I had 865 people trying to text me and talk to me and ask me a question while I'm doing it. And you can hear how distracted I am because I have |
| 673 | 02:12:05,040 --> 02:12:15,720 | painters in the house. And believe me, my concentration has been broken multiple times. So it's hard to articulate this on live charts, I don't care how good you |
| 674 | 02:12:15,720 --> 02:12:26,100 | are. It's hard to keep your focus. But then have your focus be this precise. To see that that's that's the deciding factor, I want you to compare and contrast. |
| 675 | 02:12:26,610 --> 02:12:33,210 | These folks you see out there that are trying to tell you that you can trade like banks, and they they knew my concepts, but they call it by different names. |
| 676 | 02:12:33,570 --> 02:12:39,840 | If they really know how to do it, they'll they'll walk you through it, they'll gladly do it, they'll enjoy doing it. And they'll do it for free just to make |
| 677 | 02:12:39,840 --> 02:12:49,020 | sure you understand that you can trust them. That's all I'm doing here. I've shown you how not to hurt yourself today. I believe I have, if I've been |
| 678 | 02:12:49,020 --> 02:12:58,290 | successful, at least in that give me a number one tweet to me. And number one, that means that at least you understand how painful this can be for you. If you |
| 679 | 02:12:58,290 --> 02:13:13,710 | don't listen, if you go in there and gamble on a CPI number, he it'll beat the brakes off of you. But if you've learned how I personally and how you can |
| 680 | 02:13:13,740 --> 02:13:21,660 | eventually grow into this understanding to over time, how I pick and choose my patterns of what I want to take and what would keep me from taking an entry |
| 681 | 02:13:21,660 --> 02:13:32,490 | pattern. What process do I go through my head says okay, I see that there. And in other circumstances where if we didn't have that daily volume imbalance, I |
| 682 | 02:13:32,490 --> 02:13:41,970 | would have taken a short fairway gas was formed right after 930 opening on a one minute chart. But because we had unfinished business, and just look at your one |
| 683 | 02:13:41,970 --> 02:13:50,700 | minute chart now in that beautiful in that beautiful how it went right to the top of that volume imbalance from the daily chart I outlined gave it to you for |
| 684 | 02:13:50,700 --> 02:14:03,030 | free real time before it happened. And now here we are, we trade to the top of it. And we're now 94% of it to the low. That alone folks that by itself teaches |
| 685 | 02:14:03,030 --> 02:14:13,650 | that there's an algorithm, because that principle is not taught by anybody else. They are teaching it now. Thanks to go ICT. But the point is this, teaching it |
| 686 | 02:14:13,650 --> 02:14:25,830 | in a hindsight chart is not the same thing as watching the algorithm book price before it happens. Okay? If they know the algorithm, if they handled the |
| 687 | 02:14:25,830 --> 02:14:35,310 | algorithm, they would know this. But because I'm the only person out here doing it, and the only one that's gonna do it because I had to create a language that |
| 688 | 02:14:35,310 --> 02:14:43,710 | you're not supposed to know about. I know that gets under people's skin and you don't like it because you want to be able to turn that around and say it's |
| 689 | 02:14:43,710 --> 02:14:52,470 | something else you've learned or that you found that out. And I see people say that they I figured this out on my own. And this is confirming what I thought I |
| 690 | 02:14:52,470 --> 02:15:00,180 | saw in the marketplace. No, you didn't stop lying. Okay, you didn't see this because you'd be doing it. You'd have example after example or you can start |
| 691 | 02:15:00,180 --> 02:15:09,360 | doing it right now. So I need people when I see that, that kind of stuff, I don't take that as complimentary. I take that as great a bullshit, period. |
| 692 | 02:15:11,400 --> 02:15:22,740 | Folks, I made this, whether you'd like to believe it or not, it's mine. And if you don't like it, if it gets under your skin, you move along, you can conduct |
| 693 | 02:15:22,740 --> 02:15:30,240 | your business and sell all your horseshit. Get all your subscribers buying and all your stuff. And you never have to cross paths with me. But if you cross |
| 694 | 02:15:30,240 --> 02:15:39,330 | paths with me, I'm gonna call everything you're doing horseshit. And by compare and contrast, show you that it's Mickey Mouse. There's nothing like what you're |
| 695 | 02:15:39,330 --> 02:15:47,160 | seeing here, nothing like this. You know when to do something, when not to do something, you know when to avoid it. You know why it should reverse? If it does |
| 696 | 02:15:47,160 --> 02:15:59,490 | this, it's going to go somewhere else. That's not plan a plan B. That's depth of understanding. That's proof of concept and its authorship. Think about it. I've |
| 697 | 02:15:59,490 --> 02:16:08,640 | used this analogy before. Simple game like Pac Man. Okay, I got a Pac Man game in my house America that I'm looking at right now. My wife wanted to miss Pac |
| 698 | 02:16:08,640 --> 02:16:23,850 | Man, but we couldn't get it because all the supply chain crap. I wanted. Killer combat. Right. Killer. Found again, you get the right name for it. Right. Mortal |
| 699 | 02:16:23,850 --> 02:16:33,000 | Kombat killer comic, what the hell am I talking about? I wanted Mortal Kombat. And I couldn't get my hands on that one either. But those games when they make |
| 700 | 02:16:33,000 --> 02:16:43,050 | them and design them, the board that the Pac Man, little thing that goes around eating up the dots? How does it stay inside of its border? Why doesn't it just |
| 701 | 02:16:43,050 --> 02:16:53,280 | go off screen and do whatever it wants to do? Why can't it move diagonally? You can only go up down sideways. That's it. They can stand still ignore left and |
| 702 | 02:16:53,310 --> 02:17:07,560 | right and go up and down. But it can't go diagonal. Why? Because it's never been coded to be allowed to do that. Your market price that the last price right now, |
| 703 | 02:17:07,860 --> 02:17:21,690 | wherever it's trading right now. Okay, that's Pac Man. It's going to go up, it's going to go down. It can consolidate and states sideways and go nowhere. Okay? |
| 704 | 02:17:22,500 --> 02:17:38,430 | It can't go backwards. It can only go forward. Because it's all it's allowed to do, it's coded to do that. So when a designer makes a game like Pac Man, okay, a |
| 705 | 02:17:38,430 --> 02:17:49,770 | coder that knows all the logic that goes into that machine, that program, they can sit down and play the Pac Man game better than anybody else. Because they |
| 706 | 02:17:49,770 --> 02:18:00,270 | know what profile that the ghosts of chasing the Pac Man are going to do. If they do this, then it's going to do that. And all I'm doing is illustrating |
| 707 | 02:18:00,300 --> 02:18:10,200 | proof of that here. And I know some of you get mad, like you're punching the air right now. Because dammit, he just proved it again. And why am I gonna have that |
| 708 | 02:18:10,200 --> 02:18:21,780 | I can cancel this out, man. Well, how about just stopping that. And just warming up to the idea. I love doing this. And if you're already profitable, I can make |
| 709 | 02:18:21,780 --> 02:18:33,450 | you wildly more profitable. If you just put down your bullshit. I'm not trying to work against anybody. I'm 50 years old. I'm set in my ways. And I like doing |
| 710 | 02:18:33,450 --> 02:18:44,310 | what I'm doing. Take advantage of that. I want you to just pull up a chair, show up every day. And take notes. I promise you'll leave better than you arrived. |
| 711 | 02:18:45,630 --> 02:18:53,700 | It's always going to be that way. But if you're lazy, and you're just trying to get in here and give me an easy this and easy that I've already done that for |
| 712 | 02:18:53,700 --> 02:19:02,700 | you. It's already on the YouTube channel. But if you want to know why these markets do what they do, why they book the way they book, you're not going to |
| 713 | 02:19:02,700 --> 02:19:13,020 | learn it from somebody else. You're not and these five minute new condensing of you want to learn ICT is built on bias in five minutes made it easy. This one it |
| 714 | 02:19:13,020 --> 02:19:19,650 | doesn't work, go watch them. And you'll see that you didn't learn anything more. You didn't learn faster, you didn't learn it better, because you have to go |
| 715 | 02:19:19,650 --> 02:19:30,780 | through what I just walked you through today. Every day for months. You will not get this type of understanding just reading a book or watching my videos. You |
| 716 | 02:19:30,780 --> 02:19:41,820 | have to sit with me. It has to be something like over the shoulder. And then you get it. But you don't need this level of understanding to be profitable. You can |
| 717 | 02:19:41,820 --> 02:19:50,880 | use everything I have on that YouTube channel and it's just fine. There's nothing missing. There's nothing needed beyond that. It's perfect for someone |
| 718 | 02:19:50,880 --> 02:20:01,710 | that wants to hit the ground running. Go. But for freaks of nature, people that just simply want to know that they know or be in Inside the clique, the inner |
| 719 | 02:20:01,710 --> 02:20:13,890 | circle, if you will, I do things like this, because I know the intrigue with it all that I saw, you don't really want to believe there's an algorithm that does |
| 720 | 02:20:13,890 --> 02:20:23,730 | all this stuff. And it's all buying and selling pressure. And you just give me the latitude, the talk the stuff I talk and you cherry pick what you want to |
| 721 | 02:20:23,730 --> 02:20:31,770 | take from when I say, so. Okay, I had a lot of them in my mentorship, there's still some of them, that will still tell you. I don't really believe there's an |
| 722 | 02:20:31,770 --> 02:20:39,870 | algorithm, but it knows some stuff about pricing. Okay, cool. Whatever. There's no argument, that's all I'm trying to do is I've cancelled all the arguments. |
| 723 | 02:20:40,980 --> 02:20:48,360 | There's no reason to argue about it. If you're already profitable, who cares if there's an algorithm that you believe or don't believe, if I'm shown proof of |
| 724 | 02:20:48,360 --> 02:20:58,020 | it. And there's nothing lean on in terms of other retail logic. And it repeats every week, every week, every day, and it's highly precise. And I'm pushing a |
| 725 | 02:20:58,020 --> 02:21:08,850 | button, you're seeing executions? You're hearing the thought process, the internal dialogue? Why is Pac Man, why is price going? where it's going? And why |
| 726 | 02:21:08,850 --> 02:21:18,450 | should it stop there? Why should it react and go the other way? Why is Pac Man hitting the wall and have a choice, he can only go left? He can go up? Or he can |
| 727 | 02:21:18,450 --> 02:21:30,060 | go down? There's choices. Because there's a ghost behind them chasing as as that that's logic, and you don't get that in a book. You don't get that experience |
| 728 | 02:21:30,060 --> 02:21:37,770 | this watching my videos or anybody's videos. Like you have to have someone that literally knows how to see these things before they happen. Why should they even |
| 729 | 02:21:37,770 --> 02:21:38,400 | exist? |
| 730 | 02:21:40,110 --> 02:21:51,210 | Because Wycoff doesn't make sense. Okay, it that stuff is always explaining hindsight. That's, that's the six o'clock news. Okay, that's what you're seeing |
| 731 | 02:21:51,210 --> 02:22:06,420 | you're that's explaining something in very simple terms, so the public can digest it and imbibe that narrative I'm giving you by the second of what price |
| 732 | 02:22:06,420 --> 02:22:16,650 | should be going, where it should go watch it happen. The same folks that are in these investment banks, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, these people, they don't know |
| 733 | 02:22:16,650 --> 02:22:26,550 | what you're learning. I'm telling you, they don't. They've tapped me on the shoulder. There's your proof. You want to call bullshit bullshit, we'll call it |
| 734 | 02:22:26,580 --> 02:22:42,030 | okay. Those individuals don't know this stuff. But you're learning it. We would like to see you come nope, not interested. Go watch my YouTube channel. But we |
| 735 | 02:22:42,180 --> 02:22:50,460 | but but shit, I don't need your money. I'm not interested in that kind of stuff. I don't want partnerships. I don't want to be obligated to nobody. I don't want |
| 736 | 02:22:50,460 --> 02:23:01,620 | none of that stuff. It makes it a job, which felt like the last six years it's draining man. It's so draining. I love teaching. But I don't want to do it in a |
| 737 | 02:23:02,760 --> 02:23:15,180 | in a formal setting because it takes all the excitement. I mean, isn't isn't something like today, hearing it talk about what price should do and then you're |
| 738 | 02:23:15,180 --> 02:23:23,070 | watching on your chart. You're not distracted by going from screen to screen looking at my chart and find the on your chart. Whereas I'm just explaining it |
| 739 | 02:23:23,070 --> 02:23:31,770 | by the candle, not the time, the price. I'm telling you what timeframe I'm on. And you're marking your own chart up. Now, if you felt that was a little |
| 740 | 02:23:31,770 --> 02:23:40,530 | confusing, that's okay. Don't Don't worry. We'll have more examples of this. But for those who that could navigate you've been doing it for a little while. You |
| 741 | 02:23:40,530 --> 02:23:52,320 | can't deny it's been interesting, isn't it? Like you can see it like wow, like I'm calling your chart. Before it paints. I was explaining how your chart on |
| 742 | 02:23:52,320 --> 02:23:59,130 | your platform through your brokerage firm whatever the hell it is that you're looking at. I know some of you are looking at your life platform. You're not |
| 743 | 02:23:59,130 --> 02:24:15,270 | looking at trading view. And you watched it unfold today. Isn't it fun? Like that's fun? Not here's what I did with my mentorship money. I bought a |
| 744 | 02:24:15,270 --> 02:24:26,460 | Lamborghini and I got a lease payment on an Alfa Mario, you know, like, whatever, Italian cars that people are gonna chase all that stuff dumb. I like |
| 745 | 02:24:26,460 --> 02:24:38,370 | this. This is the fun stuff. For me. It's entertainment. It's educational. And it's interactive. Like it's really interactive. So if you'd like this kind of |
| 746 | 02:24:38,370 --> 02:24:49,140 | stuff, this is kind of like what I wanted to do going into 2023. It's not a signal service. Okay. It helps you map out real time price action. My students |
| 747 | 02:24:49,140 --> 02:25:03,240 | that are doing signal services. Okay. You can't argue that this is not going to step on your toes. guy did not Don't take anybody into any specific setups. This |
| 748 | 02:25:03,240 --> 02:25:08,880 | is what I think this is where I think it's gonna draw to. And there's a fair amount of depth here and you want to see it do this, this, you want to do that. |
| 749 | 02:25:09,360 --> 02:25:18,750 | That's not me say buy, that's not me, here's your stop, that's not me here, take your profits, I did mention because I'm I was in a trade, you'll see that, that |
| 750 | 02:25:18,750 --> 02:25:27,900 | whole process of stepping on your toes and canceling out the necessity for anyone to want to go to you, as a signal provider, you can't be upset with me, |
| 751 | 02:25:28,440 --> 02:25:36,120 | because I'm not doing what you're doing. And if anything, this is actually going to build your market up for you. Because here's what's going to happen. So you |
| 752 | 02:25:36,120 --> 02:25:46,770 | can calm down, if you're worried up, you've worked up and worried about it. People are going to see what it's going to be requiring them to do this. Now a |
| 753 | 02:25:46,770 --> 02:25:56,820 | lot of people know that what I'm doing, other people are doing and they see me do it. So it works. They may not be able to do it, there's your market. And I |
| 754 | 02:25:56,820 --> 02:26:06,210 | have no problem with that. And you should have a means of having another income, if you able to be honest. And you're consistent, you're able to use the |
| 755 | 02:26:06,210 --> 02:26:18,180 | concepts, well, there's a market out there, people will pay for you to sit down and tell them buy here, sell here, all that the risks are yours. But that market |
| 756 | 02:26:18,180 --> 02:26:26,730 | is going to grow. When they see what's involved in this. A lot of people that see watching videos and think okay, well, it's just simply matter looking for |
| 757 | 02:26:26,730 --> 02:26:35,520 | this little thing he talks about it's very idea. And they think every time it does that it's a buy or sell you saw today isn't like that at all. That's |
| 758 | 02:26:35,520 --> 02:26:46,560 | narrative. That's the stuff that mentoring gets, okay, that my private group they were getting those experiences, you're not obligated to I'm not obligated |
| 759 | 02:26:46,560 --> 02:26:55,440 | rather to give that to you. Okay, that was an experience for them. There's a couple chapters in my books that are coming on. I know you guys keep asking |
| 760 | 02:26:55,440 --> 02:27:05,220 | what's gonna, when they're gonna drop, when you're gonna drop. Every time I think I got what I want for the third one done, another topic comes up. So the |
| 761 | 02:27:05,220 --> 02:27:15,690 | third volume is really, really big. Like it's a longer one. And I'll talk a little bit more about narrative and the things I did today. Because that stuff |
| 762 | 02:27:15,690 --> 02:27:20,100 | is what separates me from the rest of the smart money concept clones out there, okay. |
| 763 | 02:27:26,370 --> 02:27:36,930 | There's, there's things that offend me. And there's things that would probably flattered all of you. I'm not flattered by the things that I see when people |
| 764 | 02:27:36,930 --> 02:27:47,520 | take my stuff, okay, and they don't even teach you right. And it gives it a bad name. And this year, you know, I set out to do a lot of things to kind of, like, |
| 765 | 02:27:47,520 --> 02:27:57,780 | cancel the argument for most of these claims. And I think for the for the majority of everything I attempted to do this year, are successful. And I'll |
| 766 | 02:27:57,780 --> 02:28:09,630 | leave that up to public opinion without what there wasn't. But in 2023, like, I want to leave all the bullshit, like all the sizing up, and you can't do this |
| 767 | 02:28:09,660 --> 02:28:18,660 | better than me all that stuff. I just want to, I want to pick a lane. And this is kind of like what I want to do like this, this is what I want to do in the |
| 768 | 02:28:18,660 --> 02:28:25,260 | morning sessions, just a couple times a week, you'll know when I'm going to do it. If there's something that comes up, my wife says, you know, I want to do |
| 769 | 02:28:25,260 --> 02:28:32,790 | this, and it makes me unavailable for that time or that day, I'll just send you a tweet and say, hey, look, you know, I can't make it today, we'll do this, or |
| 770 | 02:28:32,790 --> 02:28:44,400 | we won't have one, you know, until this day. And I think that's fair, I'm not obligated to anything. But I promise you'll see things that you would have never |
| 771 | 02:28:44,400 --> 02:28:53,550 | seen, without me doing it for you. You'll see things in price that you never would have discovered just simply by watching my videos. And you'll see that |
| 772 | 02:28:53,550 --> 02:29:01,560 | there's absolutely 100% control over these marketplaces. And they're not random. They're not just doing whatever they want to do. There are times when you went |
| 773 | 02:29:01,560 --> 02:29:11,310 | the other way because it will be manually intervened. And we saw that today. And I'm always going to be wrong in those instances. That's why I don't trade them. |
| 774 | 02:29:12,000 --> 02:29:22,920 | I know where they're gonna say well, you know, let's do this. And reprice it here. And anything that I have won't work because it's them pricing to a |
| 775 | 02:29:22,920 --> 02:29:33,210 | specific price level immediately. And there's nothing I can do to be nimble to fix it if I do something wrong. So it has to be a binary no black or white, |
| 776 | 02:29:33,390 --> 02:29:46,230 | right or wrong. Do I get in beforehand? No. Because if I'm wrong, it could crushed me. And I regret it knowing that I should have done it. versus waiting, |
| 777 | 02:29:46,740 --> 02:29:58,590 | letting them tip their hand looking see what's premium array or PDA array at once? Or discount array earlier and wait for the clear, easy low resistance the |
| 778 | 02:29:58,590 --> 02:30:10,650 | quantity quantity around A signature that I outlined this morning, and you'll see the volume and balance was the very thing that kind of like made the, the |
| 779 | 02:30:10,650 --> 02:30:20,100 | narrative easy for me today. It may not have been easy to follow. But I needed something I was waiting for a breakdown and a shift in market structure. And I |
| 780 | 02:30:20,100 --> 02:30:30,840 | wanted that fear that you get to act as resistance. The first one, we couldn't get down to it. So what do I what I do? Nothing until something else presents |
| 781 | 02:30:30,840 --> 02:30:38,280 | itself? Well, something else presented itself. I said, Okay, well, it's not likely to go down there. So what is it doing, it's not going to consolidate |
| 782 | 02:30:38,280 --> 02:30:47,820 | here, the public's gonna want to buy it. So we'll watch and see if it wants to drop down, it drops down, and then rallies back up of creating higher highs. So |
| 783 | 02:30:47,820 --> 02:31:01,620 | we broke outside of the 930 high and then created a fair value gap with a bullish order block, go back and listen to the recording. And that February gap |
| 784 | 02:31:01,620 --> 02:31:14,370 | that long to the top of the daily volume imbalance. And that's where your price high is today. At this time of the discussion at the moment. How do you know if |
| 785 | 02:31:14,370 --> 02:31:23,880 | the daily high or low is going to be this? It's a lot of what you just saw me do today? Understanding the narrative, the weekly profile, the daily profile, and |
| 786 | 02:31:23,880 --> 02:31:33,150 | time of day? All those things have to be blended. And yes, it's complicated. Yes, there's going to be always people out there trying to make simplifications |
| 787 | 02:31:33,150 --> 02:31:41,850 | of what I'm doing. You can't simplify any of this. It all has to be incorporated to get those types of results consistently. Once in a while you might get near |
| 788 | 02:31:41,850 --> 02:31:50,490 | high or low. Okay, good. You might be able to call the high but you're not trading it. You might be to see the low likely that you didn't get out there. |
| 789 | 02:31:51,150 --> 02:32:00,150 | Okay, and be content with that's enough. That's enough. That's a trophy. But you don't need to be buying the low and selling high. Just to be profitable. You can |
| 790 | 02:32:00,150 --> 02:32:09,150 | get that meat in the middle of that bone. And just take the easy stuff to grab and run with it. Once you get it stop. Like I have no interest in trading the |
| 791 | 02:32:09,150 --> 02:32:24,750 | afternoon. No, no, I've zero interest, absolutely none. Do you if you feel that impulsiveness in your wanting to get in there and again, resist that. Find ways |
| 792 | 02:32:24,750 --> 02:32:34,740 | say okay, I don't need to do this, and then come back later on. Regardless if it moves good or not get comfortable with saying, I don't need to do that. Because |
| 793 | 02:32:34,770 --> 02:32:45,510 | social media equity curves are plaguing everybody. This guy is better than this one. This method is better than that when this one is copying this guy who gives |
| 794 | 02:32:45,510 --> 02:32:57,570 | us shit. And who cares. There's a lot of other shit going on in the world right now. That's Mickey Mouse topics. That's not even that big of a deal. Pick the |
| 795 | 02:32:57,570 --> 02:33:06,450 | person that you want to follow demand that they can prove they can do it. If they can do it. Hey, that's all you need. If you'd like their personality and |
| 796 | 02:33:06,450 --> 02:33:17,520 | our minds not that great, because personality disorder, I don't hide it from you I've ever tried to hide it. I'm not the best teacher. But what I teach is the |
| 797 | 02:33:17,520 --> 02:33:35,580 | market. And the real, the real market makers. They employ these ideas against everybody else. And you're not supposed to know. So a little bit more proof. |
| 798 | 02:33:36,420 --> 02:33:49,350 | Andy? Oh, all real time. Look at that one minute chart right now. Look where it's hanging in side of those boundaries. But that daily volume imbalance that |
| 799 | 02:33:49,350 --> 02:33:52,650 | does not exist anywhere else. |
| 800 | 02:33:53,700 --> 02:33:55,050 | But it's always been in your charts. |
| 801 | 02:33:56,100 --> 02:34:01,890 | It's always been there. Nobody's ever talked about it. Nobody's ever mentioned it. |
| 802 | 02:34:05,910 --> 02:34:07,470 | But this whippersnapper |
| 803 | 02:34:09,060 --> 02:34:22,290 | back in the 90s thought his shit didn't stink, discovered things like this and felt like he had to |
| 804 | 02:34:23,940 --> 02:34:27,000 | prove in subtle time to validate himself. |
| 805 | 02:34:28,260 --> 02:34:35,580 | I don't need to validate anything anymore. That's why I don't live a fast life in front of everybody. And so I don't do all those things. And I make it all |
| 806 | 02:34:35,580 --> 02:34:44,670 | about the boring stuff like this. And if you're not entertained by this, and reading price, you're in the wrong industry. Like if you don't have a passion |
| 807 | 02:34:44,670 --> 02:34:57,120 | about knowing what these simple little candles are going to do next. I guarantee you, you will not be a trader. It's got to be in you or you're not gonna be a |
| 808 | 02:34:57,120 --> 02:35:08,940 | part of it. Like you have to absolutely love it. If you don't love it, and not loving money, you love the process. You love the engagement of it, the whole art |
| 809 | 02:35:09,120 --> 02:35:20,100 | of it. It's a lifestyle. It's not a hobby. It's not a choice. It's a lifestyle. Business owners, entrepreneurs, they're not doing a hobby. |
| 810 | 02:35:21,660 --> 02:35:22,470 | They're passionate. |
| 811 | 02:35:23,670 --> 02:35:30,720 | They're passionate about what they're doing. And you have to be absolutely passionate about your development as a trader, you have to be passionate about |
| 812 | 02:35:30,750 --> 02:35:41,670 | why, why even do this? You can make lots of money with it. Nobody's arguing that. But are you doing this to compensate for something else? Because if that's |
| 813 | 02:35:41,670 --> 02:35:47,790 | the case, you're not going to do well here. You're going to be impulsively doing things that you shouldn't be doing, hoping that you're gonna get a lottery win. |
| 814 | 02:35:52,050 --> 02:35:54,000 | Don't fight the urge to talk about Powerball. |
| 815 | 02:35:55,470 --> 02:36:05,370 | I gotta get off here. My wife's already gave me the evil. I'm like you said 15 on Yes, yes, I'm closing it and closing it. I promise I'm closing. Give me three |
| 816 | 02:36:05,370 --> 02:36:06,210 | minutes. I'm closing it. |
| 817 | 02:36:08,790 --> 02:36:09,660 | I have a boss folks. |
| 818 | 02:36:11,970 --> 02:36:23,160 | Anyway, my intentions are once we come back from our holiday break, you might not be breaking that I'm breaking the first Tuesday of February, I would very, |
| 819 | 02:36:23,160 --> 02:36:35,070 | very much like to do live streams like this. And yes, my chart will be available. Yes, you'll see it. Okay. But I want you to know that there's going |
| 820 | 02:36:35,070 --> 02:36:43,020 | to be timed charts that I'm going to refer to because I'm only going to have one timeframe on my live stream. Whatever chart that is, that's the one I'm going to |
| 821 | 02:36:43,020 --> 02:36:51,150 | stay with the entire time. I'm not going to transition and go through. But I will refer to like you heard me talk about in today's Twitter space, I'll refer |
| 822 | 02:36:51,180 --> 02:37:04,260 | or cite a specific price or series of candles that my attention is on. And you might say, well, you're holding back ICT, I want to do what I want to do. Okay, |
| 823 | 02:37:04,530 --> 02:37:12,480 | can I do that? I think I earned that. Right? I mean, it's my prerogative, I don't want anybody trying to tell me how to do it. Because it pisses me off. I'm |
| 824 | 02:37:12,480 --> 02:37:18,720 | a control freak, I don't like someone trying to tell me what to do. You can't do better than me. So don't suggest how I'm going to do it. You have no idea what |
| 825 | 02:37:18,720 --> 02:37:26,820 | I'm talking about, you have no idea what price is going to do. So please don't suggest to me how you want to be handheld. I want to do this and entertain |
| 826 | 02:37:26,850 --> 02:37:36,600 | myself. And hopefully along the pathway, bring your understanding about price action up to speed. And if you don't like it, if you don't like that way of |
| 827 | 02:37:36,600 --> 02:37:44,700 | doing it, you don't have to watch the live stream. You don't have to do that. You don't need that. It's already on my YouTube channel how to trade and buff |
| 828 | 02:37:44,730 --> 02:37:53,880 | and profitably and do it with precision and know what you're looking for. I'm not trying to have the biggest live streams, I don't care if only 200 People |
| 829 | 02:37:53,880 --> 02:38:04,170 | show I don't care. Okay, I just know that there's an audience in my group. Both private mentorship, and collectively, you all want to see this type of stuff. |
| 830 | 02:38:04,890 --> 02:38:13,650 | And I have no problem doing it. But I just wanted to make sure that you don't understand it. It has nothing to do with ego has nothing to do with proving that |
| 831 | 02:38:13,650 --> 02:38:25,770 | I'm this on that. I'm just wanting to engage you all as an audience, and I want to have fun together. And I can create a carnival like atmosphere, make it fun. |
| 832 | 02:38:27,030 --> 02:38:36,180 | When there's a better market today, it was kind of like lackluster interest. But even there, I can find something. But why would you want to waste all your day? |
| 833 | 02:38:36,870 --> 02:38:50,070 | In your morning when you could have been out to breakfast with your wife encouraging one I know I know. I'm sorry. I promise I'm closing. I'm going to |
| 834 | 02:38:50,070 --> 02:39:00,270 | close this now books. The boss has given me the final Eli and I will catch up with you when I catch up with you. I'm not going to share the chart right away |
| 835 | 02:39:00,870 --> 02:39:10,530 | simply because I'm getting ran off here now. But obviously you've been here you know what's going on. If you enjoyed today, give me a thumbs up emoji in a |
| 836 | 02:39:10,530 --> 02:39:18,060 | tweet. If you didn't learn anything. You know, keep your pain to yourself because I really don't care. I'll talk to you next time. You say |