013-ict-tw-spaces-20220914-CPI-Reflections-and-Falling-For-False-Hope-original
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2022-12-29 08:28
Outline
00:31 - The CIP number released today is not what you think.
05:02 - Why you can’t go back in time and assume for a moment that you would have been successful.
11:49 - How would that have made you feel today? How would you feel?
17:20 - Why you don’t need to endure those things to learn.
22:16 - What an algorithm does in high impact news.
30:13 - Why you have to respect these reports more than your algorithm.
35:10 - It’s not your job to place your entire success on the expectations of navigating entering precisely and exiting precisely on a day like today.
40:42 - What’s the next trade? Where do you see it going? -.
46:11 - What happens if you don’t put any thought behind the trade.
52:00 - When you have no control over your emotions.
58:48 - Every single time I blew a live account, it was with the mentality that it has to all come together today. It has to be today.
01:04:19 - You're trying to do something that is impossible -.
01:09:19 - Success isn’t a one day event, it’s multiple stops continuously.
01:15:12 - Be sober, honest and honest with yourself.
Transcription
| 1 | 00:00:31,650 --> 00:00:42,030 | ICT: Good evening, folks. So I want to talk a little bit about the CPI released today. |
| 2 | 00:00:48,330 --> 00:01:00,960 | Obviously, when you see these things that you get home from work, wake up in your own local timezone and look back and see the chart. It can fool you into |
| 3 | 00:01:00,960 --> 00:01:16,410 | thinking that you could have got filled that real juicy high in the morning you'll see these guys out there that will show you their demo account entries or |
| 4 | 00:01:16,410 --> 00:01:32,490 | market replay and tout that as somehow sniper precision. And in fact, some of them actually may come from my fault. I shared today that that would absolutely |
| 5 | 00:01:32,490 --> 00:01:46,260 | not have happened in real time, would have gotten pulled at all the rate as the CPI number released. It was so quick, I recorded it. I was sitting right next to |
| 6 | 00:01:46,260 --> 00:01:56,850 | Caleb at the time outlining exactly what I was expecting. And it was lightning quick in seconds, it had already moved dozens of handles, and there's no way |
| 7 | 00:01:56,880 --> 00:02:10,290 | anyone would have gotten filled at all. The problem with this is sometimes demo accounts will allow you to get quote unquote, failed, that would not happen in |
| 8 | 00:02:10,290 --> 00:02:23,340 | real life. Anyone that would be telling you that this is a day that you could have killed it, that you could have burned down the house with all these profits |
| 9 | 00:02:23,850 --> 00:02:36,480 | this morning session. No, the only way you could have made money is if you would have been chasing price. And this would have been a textbook example of when not |
| 10 | 00:02:36,480 --> 00:02:55,230 | the chase price, because it could just as well come back 2030 handles on you in breakneck speed. So part of this approach to teaching you it's meant to |
| 11 | 00:02:55,260 --> 00:03:06,090 | obviously steer you away from things that will hurt you. These things have hurt me in the past, when I didn't have someone to guide me warn me that these |
| 12 | 00:03:06,090 --> 00:03:20,220 | potential pitfalls were just in the offing. Next trading session, the next trading day. When are these likely to occur? I thought our model looks for |
| 13 | 00:03:21,570 --> 00:03:32,880 | medium and high tech news events. Well, there are certain events on the economic calendar that are yes, red or orange. And they will be dubbed as a medium or |
| 14 | 00:03:32,880 --> 00:03:45,360 | high impact news driver. But not all high or medium impact news drivers are equal. Some of them, for instance, Non Farm Payroll. That's a high impact news |
| 15 | 00:03:45,360 --> 00:03:59,460 | driver, do we trade that no CPI number. I like to trade that after it hits, like after the market hits. Then if I can find it on an ideal scenario to enter, then |
| 16 | 00:03:59,460 --> 00:04:17,760 | I'll do it today was given me no quarter, no chance whatsoever. And it did an entire month's range or more in minutes. So I mentioned this in multiple times |
| 17 | 00:04:17,760 --> 00:04:31,020 | when I talk about missing moves and such. Now I don't care this me personally. But seeing comments on TradingView because there's a way for people to like send |
| 18 | 00:04:31,020 --> 00:04:39,930 | me direct messages, and I ignore them predominantly. But there's a lot of them saying, you know, did I get this move I was able to capture in this mood today |
| 19 | 00:04:39,930 --> 00:04:48,570 | that I do this that I do that? And I can imagine by me answering them individually. Number one they would feel cool because it's like a direct |
| 20 | 00:04:48,570 --> 00:04:59,010 | response rate from me like I'm a celebrity, which I'm not. And that likely would make them feel like they should have been doing something with a day like this |
| 21 | 00:04:59,010 --> 00:05:09,000 | and it's simply not the case, like you can see on your chart, if you're looking at it now, it looks like it would have been a wonderful opportunity to obviously |
| 22 | 00:05:09,000 --> 00:05:24,120 | be in there going short, near the high. After all traded up into a bearish order block on the daily chart, gave it a real once you clicked on my water bottle, do |
| 23 | 00:05:24,120 --> 00:05:40,140 | not spill it. They gave an ideal entry that would be classic by definition. But you'd be fooling yourself with false hope, because the chart reflects what has |
| 24 | 00:05:40,140 --> 00:05:48,630 | already happened. But you cannot go back in time. And assume for a moment with any bit of |
| 25 | 00:05:49,740 --> 00:06:01,140 | confidence that you would have been filled because there's no way look at the recording I had this morning. I shared it right on Twitter. Like that was me |
| 26 | 00:06:01,140 --> 00:06:07,980 | sitting there, that was me outlining the actual order block, it was me actually taking my cursor showing my son, this is what's gonna do, it's gonna hit the |
| 27 | 00:06:08,040 --> 00:06:16,320 | waterblock man trade down. And I had a small little fair value gap, but I was waiting to see if it would give me a little bit of a pop in there. Give me a |
| 28 | 00:06:16,410 --> 00:06:26,610 | retracement up and then on look for a short I did not want to short it. As it hit the bearish order block, I wanted to see the reaction, trading down to that |
| 29 | 00:06:26,610 --> 00:06:32,970 | fair value gap and in between that fair value gap in the border block, I would have been looking for a fair value gap perform in there and I would have shorted |
| 30 | 00:06:32,970 --> 00:06:47,820 | that should have had presented and didn't obviously too fast. And I knew right away, like it's done a turn to my son his eyes were like bugged out, like what |
| 31 | 00:06:47,850 --> 00:07:00,960 | in the world it happens like that, sometimes you're gonna miss it, there's simply nothing you can do to justify a low risk, high probability entry, it just |
| 32 | 00:07:01,020 --> 00:07:15,330 | simply can't do it, folks. And you can be in one of two camps. One you can be irritated, mad, frustrated, dammit, this system is supposed to give me a setup, |
| 33 | 00:07:15,510 --> 00:07:24,870 | I can see it in the chart. So therefore I should be able to do it. Or we can say you know what, there's gonna be days like this, it's gonna be days like this, |
| 34 | 00:07:24,870 --> 00:07:33,300 | where you just simply can't be a part of it. And it might move a lot. But I want you to take a step back, if that's what you're thinking that you had to be in |
| 35 | 00:07:33,300 --> 00:07:45,120 | this move, or it was a failure, you're never going to amount to anything as a trader. I want you to think about when this day started, you didn't have a trade |
| 36 | 00:07:45,120 --> 00:07:57,000 | on. You were looking to put a trade on. Now the day has passed, we're looking back and looking at it from a hindsight perspective. And if you'd listened to |
| 37 | 00:07:57,000 --> 00:08:09,060 | me, you didn't have a trade on still, you did not take a loss, you did not feel any of the anxiety that anybody would have felt today getting into moves, after |
| 38 | 00:08:09,060 --> 00:08:21,540 | it's already moved a great deal. Anyone selling short after an initial drop of 50 or 60 handles, if you think for a moment that they can sit there and justify |
| 39 | 00:08:21,540 --> 00:08:37,440 | how they felt confident, self assured how it would not likely run back up that drop, at least partially. They'd be lying. They will be lying to you and giving |
| 40 | 00:08:37,440 --> 00:08:48,960 | you false hope. And one of the things I like to do is be blunt, absolutely blunt, and I don't care. If it turns off some of the people that come here with |
| 41 | 00:08:48,960 --> 00:08:57,990 | this hotshot mentality that you're gonna come in here like a cracker jack, and it's all gonna fire for you. Because you sat down and want to learn this. You're |
| 42 | 00:08:57,990 --> 00:09:11,070 | going to be the one they're the exception to all you're not. I knew that it was likely to do what it was doing today, before CPI hit. I sat there with my son, I |
| 43 | 00:09:11,070 --> 00:09:19,560 | sat there and recorded it. Everything in that chart is real time. There's absolutely no market replay, there is no delay. There is absolutely nothing but |
| 44 | 00:09:20,280 --> 00:09:32,400 | real time expectations and just simply too fast. And they I have nothing. I have nothing in my arsenal that could have put me in that trade. Soon as the market |
| 45 | 00:09:32,400 --> 00:09:50,730 | hit the CPI number. Bang, it was gone. It's it. train has left the building without me on it. And that's okay. Because my experience doing this. I can |
| 46 | 00:09:50,730 --> 00:09:59,970 | afford to have these big runs. leave without me. I can afford not to trade the afternoon even though I know that there's a likelihood of me capturing |
| 47 | 00:10:00,000 --> 00:10:12,990 | something, if I come back to you and say here, here's what I did. I don't want that to be seen as Oh, he needs to be able to show he did something else. He |
| 48 | 00:10:12,990 --> 00:10:24,090 | couldn't get the move in the morning. So he had to do something else to justify his ego or his attitude as a teacher, trader, whatever. I thought to myself, I |
| 49 | 00:10:24,090 --> 00:10:37,350 | said, You know what? I'm gonna just simply stay out something with it, and let it do what it wants to do. In fact, it went further than I expect it on the day. |
| 50 | 00:10:39,240 --> 00:10:45,180 | way further than I expected. So yes, |
| 51 | 00:10:45,930 --> 00:10:56,520 | I had the right idea going in. Yes, I had the level to key off of yes, it reacted exactly how I wanted to see it react except for present the entry |
| 52 | 00:10:56,520 --> 00:11:10,950 | technique that I was looking for. So all things up to that point where they had the right ingredients. Bias was correct. Everything was setting up a likelihood |
| 53 | 00:11:11,700 --> 00:11:27,150 | of a wonderful opportunity for me to shine. But admittedly, had I got in. Let's say, I want to put a shortlist. Let's say I would have taken, let's say, half of |
| 54 | 00:11:27,150 --> 00:11:37,410 | the daily range. Okay, maybe I was taken, you know, maybe a little less than half the daily range. If you were to watch me do that. And if I would have came |
| 55 | 00:11:37,410 --> 00:11:48,120 | to you with that example, recording the whole thing, like I do all my examples. How would that have made you feel today? Some of you be like, Oh, I mean, high |
| 56 | 00:11:48,120 --> 00:12:01,050 | five, ICT, you're, you're this and you're that others would feel like, well, I'm going to try to do that same thing, next time. And that's absolutely not what I |
| 57 | 00:12:01,050 --> 00:12:12,060 | want you to be doing certain reports, CPI, Non Farm Payroll, FOMC, you simply just can't stand in front of them. I can't do it, folks, okay, I'm gonna just be |
| 58 | 00:12:12,120 --> 00:12:21,060 | blunt with you. You want to be lied to, there's a lot of other people out there is gonna lie to you. You want to be told that you can do everything all the |
| 59 | 00:12:21,060 --> 00:12:32,490 | time. And just because the markets moving around, you just go on here and do it? Well, you're welcome to go out there and have your face ripped off. But I'm not |
| 60 | 00:12:32,490 --> 00:12:41,820 | trying to create gamblers, I'm not trying to create the idea in your mind that you should be able to think every single trade is something you can be a |
| 61 | 00:12:41,820 --> 00:12:52,950 | participant in because there is not a opportunity in every swing. Sometimes the mark is going to take off, and you'll expect it to be doing the very thing you |
| 62 | 00:12:52,950 --> 00:13:03,210 | see it unfolding on your chart. But you can't get on it. That's okay. No problem. There's many times when I was growing up, I watched folks that would |
| 63 | 00:13:04,140 --> 00:13:15,240 | ride on MTA mass transit. And sometimes they would get to the bus stop a little late, and the buses would just start taking off. Now I know that bus driver saw |
| 64 | 00:13:15,240 --> 00:13:30,300 | these folks. But Human nature being what they are sometimes ignorant, they would just pull off and they'd be chasing after bus waving, hey, they saw on but they |
| 65 | 00:13:30,300 --> 00:13:39,900 | kept going on the market is going to treat you just like that. It doesn't owe you anything. It doesn't owe you your entry just because you want it to be |
| 66 | 00:13:39,900 --> 00:13:50,070 | there. And you certainly don't want to be chasing after it. Because it's not going to get you where you want to go. The folks that would start chasing after |
| 67 | 00:13:50,070 --> 00:14:00,750 | that bus. Eventually, they would relent and say Oh, well, let me go back and sit, catch the next one. That's the mentality for us to have right now. Don't |
| 68 | 00:14:00,750 --> 00:14:12,030 | waste your time chasing, don't worry about it. That opportunity is going to present itself in the form of another bus at a different pickup time. And you |
| 69 | 00:14:12,030 --> 00:14:22,500 | don't have to chase after it'll come right to you. Just sit there and wait at the bus stop and it'll come that fair value gap. After a run on stops, a shift |
| 70 | 00:14:22,500 --> 00:14:35,940 | in market structure creates that little bit of a gap. That's a bus stop. I gotta do a show up and beyond time for the next one. Why are you worrying about it? |
| 71 | 00:14:36,120 --> 00:14:51,690 | See, you see that? Round the World. Big drop from high north way down deep in the south on that big CPI number today. And you all want to look at that chart |
| 72 | 00:14:51,690 --> 00:15:02,610 | and say Man, I wish I would have got in on that. Yeah, I wish I would have got on and say I could have made some money today real good money. But it didn't |
| 73 | 00:15:02,700 --> 00:15:17,040 | happen. It didn't present it to me. Look at your chart, it's not there folks are gonna tweet. Oh, yeah, i CPUs was amazing your ends really showed up in this |
| 74 | 00:15:17,040 --> 00:15:30,480 | morning on the E Mini s&p And it did not. It didn't watch that little vignette of me actually recording real time, when that CPI number hit, there's absolutely |
| 75 | 00:15:30,510 --> 00:15:36,930 | no way on earth, anybody would have gotten filled on that. Now, you could have been filled short |
| 76 | 00:15:38,550 --> 00:15:48,240 | before the CPI number, like a min rate before you could have got failed on that. And you would have had the weather probably what 1011 handles have a heat |
| 77 | 00:15:48,510 --> 00:16:09,060 | initially right away, and then it dropped 3040 handles in seconds, folks, in seconds. That type of movement, stop loss orders do not work. They don't work. |
| 78 | 00:16:10,080 --> 00:16:19,860 | That means if you have these nutters out there that are telling you, this was the greatest day in the world to be trading. This is what we live for. Now, |
| 79 | 00:16:19,860 --> 00:16:37,710 | these are the days you die on. These are the days that your head can be completely taken off, cleanly taken off. Because stop loss does not work and |
| 80 | 00:16:37,710 --> 00:16:56,190 | move like it did today. And if your teacher, your mentor, hero is telling you this is the day that you should be living for as a trader. You have the wrong |
| 81 | 00:16:56,220 --> 00:17:15,000 | educator. Because I showed it real time that there's absolutely no way once 830 happened. No, no, no, no, no. Nobody's getting on board that no broker would |
| 82 | 00:17:15,000 --> 00:17:26,370 | have failed, any of that would not have happened. You would have been filled way down. If you don't feel at all. |
| 83 | 00:17:32,400 --> 00:17:50,190 | And now it doesn't taste good. And that isn't sweet. But this is what you should expect from me. The blunt, bland truth? See, sugarcoating it. That's what people |
| 84 | 00:17:50,190 --> 00:18:00,450 | want you to feel and taste when they have something to sell. I'm just giving you the really real folks. There's nothing on the other side of all this. There's no |
| 85 | 00:18:00,990 --> 00:18:19,320 | sales pitch. I don't have anything to buy, sell. Rent, nothing. Just logic, three decades of it. I warned you yesterday I said don't let the CPI number rip |
| 86 | 00:18:19,320 --> 00:18:39,330 | your face off. Some of you apparently took that as an invitation. Okay, for shave today. You lost your ass. Then my intent is for you not to endure those |
| 87 | 00:18:39,330 --> 00:18:49,020 | types of things. You don't need to endure those things to learn. Is it her to be sitting here and say, You know what? Yeah, the market did move a lot today. And |
| 88 | 00:18:49,020 --> 00:19:00,570 | yeah, it would have been really nice if I would have been a participant of that and profitably closed out something. But I didn't and I did not incur any loss. |
| 89 | 00:19:00,600 --> 00:19:15,690 | I did not incur any kind of anxiety. No worry. I'm not even getting out too early. There's simply nothing to worry about. No entry, no pattern, no fill. So |
| 90 | 00:19:15,690 --> 00:19:28,350 | what's the complaint about? Nothing. There's nothing to complain about. There's no reason for any of you to feel like Ah, man, I missed that big move. Think |
| 91 | 00:19:28,350 --> 00:19:39,510 | about if you're doing that. Think about what you're actually saying. This is the only move that's ever going to happen in the marketplace. And you screwed it up. |
| 92 | 00:19:40,290 --> 00:19:58,560 | You screwed it up. You put all of every bit of your future success into one encapsulated moment. One day the CPI number and you blew it. You miserable |
| 93 | 00:19:58,560 --> 00:20:11,760 | failure Look what you've done to yourself. You've wrecked your entire career, because you couldn't take this one day down. That's what you're doing. That's |
| 94 | 00:20:11,760 --> 00:20:23,700 | the equivalent of what you're doing, if you think like that. But when you hear it expressed in such a manner, it's silly, isn't it? You're turning one day into |
| 95 | 00:20:23,700 --> 00:20:34,740 | a career tragedy. And it's not. It's a missed move. That's all it is. Chalk it up as well, you know, it would have been great to be a part of it. But it didn't |
| 96 | 00:20:34,740 --> 00:20:54,840 | give me anything. So therefore, next. Next, what next trading opportunity. next trading day. In the setup comes, you take it isn't out a lot better? To reflect |
| 97 | 00:20:54,840 --> 00:21:05,460 | on the moves like that, and think to yourself, I don't have any regrets. Because you shouldn't have any. If you regret anything about today, having not |
| 98 | 00:21:05,460 --> 00:21:17,100 | participated at all. You have the wrong mentality. You're thinking about completely the ass backwards. Like you're looking at it from the perspective of |
| 99 | 00:21:17,100 --> 00:21:26,700 | a gambler. See a gambler sees all those tables out there in a casino, Florida, looking around. They got their system, you know, you've heard from your |
| 100 | 00:21:26,700 --> 00:21:35,820 | grandparents, your weight, and your watch to see who's playing that one handed bandits. You want the ones that's been sitting there playing for a long time to |
| 101 | 00:21:35,820 --> 00:21:43,080 | sit there and eat your peanuts and drink your beer. Just sit there and watch them don't put any money in the machine, just watch. And when they get up, |
| 102 | 00:21:43,110 --> 00:21:57,510 | that's the machine you go over to no time. They're telling themselves they're gonna win. They're gonna win. Because they've convinced themselves of it. You |
| 103 | 00:21:57,510 --> 00:22:08,580 | can't do that with trading. Today's perfect example that. Yes, we knew there's a high impact news driver coming out at 830. Today. Yes, is likely to create a lot |
| 104 | 00:22:08,580 --> 00:22:22,530 | of movement. Yes, tools can be utilized to anticipate the likelihood of a move going in a specific direction. And then the report hits the marketplace and then |
| 105 | 00:22:22,800 --> 00:22:31,170 | the algorithm starts doing what an algorithm does in high impact news drivers. The Rip setup |
| 106 | 00:22:33,270 --> 00:22:51,090 | took off like a bat out of hell. Orders pending orders still pending. But your chart Wait, wait, wait. But my chart says I should have got filled your broker |
| 107 | 00:22:51,120 --> 00:23:09,240 | says screw your order. So you think these folks here running these companies to facilitate engagement for your trades to be taken to the marketplace? You think |
| 108 | 00:23:09,240 --> 00:23:25,380 | they owe you something when you need them the most? Trust me folks, they're not going to be there for you. Yeah, but they're not going to be there for you. You |
| 109 | 00:23:25,380 --> 00:23:33,600 | can place those protective stop orders and there's pending orders to get in and want to awesome entry and have all your hopes and dreams tied up on that |
| 110 | 00:23:33,690 --> 00:23:51,690 | particular trade but when the market takes off and the velocity is so violent they're not going to be able to fill you they're not they're not okay there's |
| 111 | 00:23:51,690 --> 00:24:10,050 | simply no way for them to do that moves to quick markets moving at a pace that's so fast and violent your chart is marking to market but their liquidity isn't |
| 112 | 00:24:10,050 --> 00:24:25,860 | matching up isn't allowing that the pair of orders so yes, you can see on your chart how in hindsight Wow, he went right to dollar block opening price on a |
| 113 | 00:24:25,860 --> 00:24:46,920 | daily chart. Wow, it really just reacted nicely. So it's my concept and I still couldn't peel off an entry either. too fast, too fast. Hit nitrous oxide and |
| 114 | 00:24:46,980 --> 00:25:05,640 | Gone Baby Go go go. I don't I don't think any of you should have any kind of soreness ah, I missed out, you should feel glad. Because I can tell you this, if |
| 115 | 00:25:05,640 --> 00:25:17,760 | you would have got filled today, you would have been scared shitless it will be moving so fast for you, you never would have clearly knew where to exit, you |
| 116 | 00:25:17,760 --> 00:25:24,990 | probably would have just bailed. Soon as you started seeing it move you wish you would have bailed, because it's too quick, too fast. None of you have that |
| 117 | 00:25:25,830 --> 00:25:32,460 | experience to see what it feels like to hold on to something in freefall like that. It's exhilarating. |
| 118 | 00:25:38,490 --> 00:25:54,000 | But you were spared. You didn't have that experience today. But you have the safe, hindsight perspective of knowing that you will not have been filled, when |
| 119 | 00:25:54,000 --> 00:26:04,140 | that morning move in never would have happened. And the only entry that you would have maintained will be on the basis of chasing price after his already |
| 120 | 00:26:04,140 --> 00:26:15,030 | dropped 40 some handles that little clip I put on this morning. That's real time sometimes, you know, when you watch my vignettes, I'm actually speeding it up. |
| 121 | 00:26:15,270 --> 00:26:23,010 | And I'm compressing a lot of time down into two minutes, two minutes, 15 seconds, something to that effect. You're watching it real time, there's no |
| 122 | 00:26:23,010 --> 00:26:31,440 | speeding up at all, that it was not edited for time to get compressed. It's literally just like you would have been watching it live. It's not the same as |
| 123 | 00:26:31,440 --> 00:26:42,660 | if you go to trading view and watch it through Market Replay. That's not you can't appreciate it. You cannot see it as it violently shifted. And then |
| 124 | 00:26:43,740 --> 00:26:57,300 | plummeted. There's no way your system or anybody else's systems getting filled on that. And I just wanted to sit down with you and remind you in truthfulness, |
| 125 | 00:26:57,420 --> 00:27:05,490 | that if anybody's telling you that they would have gotten filled on that. Because it's only going to be a demo that filled out on that. That's it. And |
| 126 | 00:27:05,970 --> 00:27:18,120 | perhaps I don't know, because I wasn't using anything paper trading this morning. But perhaps trading view, paper trades maybe didn't allow data entry. I |
| 127 | 00:27:18,120 --> 00:27:29,760 | noticed sometimes on trading view on real big events like that, it seems like their paper trading thing goes down like it won't work. I know I tried in the |
| 128 | 00:27:29,760 --> 00:27:38,340 | past when I was dealing FOMC trying to show things to Caleb, it wouldn't even take the order in. And then all of a sudden, like 10 minutes later, it activates |
| 129 | 00:27:38,340 --> 00:27:49,800 | and fills, but it's like it wouldn't be I wouldn't want to be in where it's put me in, you know what I mean? So I guess in a lot of ways, it's similar to what |
| 130 | 00:27:49,800 --> 00:28:01,710 | you would experience but not to that great length of delay. You're trying to trade these high impact news events, just know that CPI is something that has to |
| 131 | 00:28:01,710 --> 00:28:09,210 | hit the market. And then after it hits the market, we're looking for something that we're not trying to get ahead of it, we treat it just like FOMC or any kind |
| 132 | 00:28:09,210 --> 00:28:18,780 | of rate announcement, you can't stand in front of that. That means you don't want to get in to a move before that number hits. Because it can do wild stuff, |
| 133 | 00:28:18,780 --> 00:28:31,260 | folks, and really hurt you. Imagine if you would have been long this morning, something in the chart that said hey, you know what, this thing's gonna go up a |
| 134 | 00:28:31,260 --> 00:28:49,320 | lot. And you went long at 8:20am, New York local time. And you use a well, an eight handle or 10 handle stop loss. That's a pretty respectable amount of |
| 135 | 00:28:50,820 --> 00:29:04,680 | handles for a stop loss and E Mini s&p ai number hit like it did. your stop loss would have done nothing for you. The market would have been laughing in your |
| 136 | 00:29:04,680 --> 00:29:19,710 | face while you're down 40 Some plus handles and your broker doesn't care. You owe money. And that money will be debited from your account. Or now you have a |
| 137 | 00:29:19,710 --> 00:29:27,060 | margin call. You owe them money. That ain't in your account. Something like that could happen. |
| 138 | 00:29:32,760 --> 00:29:40,980 | So when you're looking at medium and high impact news drivers, just know that Non Farm Payroll FOMC great announcement type things and CPI numbers. They are |
| 139 | 00:29:41,010 --> 00:29:56,280 | generally ferocious. They can be very painful. Regardless of whatever you think you know about the marketplace. Listen, folks. I think I'm the best. Let's be |
| 140 | 00:29:56,280 --> 00:30:11,490 | honest, I believe I'm the best. I don't think I believe it. And I still respect these reports, because I am aware that me the human eye can go into those days |
| 141 | 00:30:11,490 --> 00:30:26,580 | and think I'm smarter than my algorithm. And then it shows me I'm not. So on days like this, when I'm up against my algorithm, I have a tendency to get it |
| 142 | 00:30:26,580 --> 00:30:46,110 | wrong. Other events FOMC CPI, Non Farm Payroll rate announcements that don't have this type of character behind it. That can be a little bit more assertive. |
| 143 | 00:30:46,770 --> 00:30:59,430 | In fact, many times I can be in before the news hits. But these events, CPI FOMC rate announcements and Non Farm Payroll, I do, I do not stand in front of them, |
| 144 | 00:31:00,060 --> 00:31:10,860 | I have to let them do what they're going to do, then look for the seller, and then admit to myself, that I don't know what it's going to do ahead of those |
| 145 | 00:31:10,890 --> 00:31:25,050 | specific reports, because they're highly manipulated that data. It's known to certain individuals before all all the data is really, but these are high impact |
| 146 | 00:31:25,050 --> 00:31:37,920 | drivers where they've really pushed price around. So that means while there's gonna be a lot more manipulation, because that hand behind the marketplace, it's |
| 147 | 00:31:37,920 --> 00:31:52,200 | a greedy hand, it wants it before you can have it. That means you have to respect it more, because it will slap you. It'll slap a taste right out your |
| 148 | 00:31:52,200 --> 00:32:05,940 | mouth. And it has happened to me dozens of times over my career. And I have learned and was humbled on these days. So I respect it like this. And the other |
| 149 | 00:32:05,940 --> 00:32:16,470 | day, I'm out there, I am worried about our step right in front of it. But these reports, and I, one of the ladies in our group. She tweeted, hey, I thought we |
| 150 | 00:32:16,770 --> 00:32:26,730 | look for these types of events, not all of them are equal. And you learned about it tonight, which ones should you be expecting a little bit more than others, |
| 151 | 00:32:27,270 --> 00:32:37,920 | and why. So it's important for you to look back, soberly, and understand because you're gonna see a lot of folks out there and show their entries or what would |
| 152 | 00:32:37,920 --> 00:32:46,320 | be otherwise viewed as an entry. But many times these entries are trades that they've taken on some general accounting, they got running around, and they just |
| 153 | 00:32:46,320 --> 00:32:58,110 | created another demo account on more phones and more devices. And in sometimes these old entries just happen to line out real good. With something that took |
| 154 | 00:32:58,110 --> 00:33:08,280 | place the very day the market really tanks and they weren't watching that demo account. That's really been the same move for days. Like a ghost ship out in the |
| 155 | 00:33:08,280 --> 00:33:23,970 | sea out there, like an aimless ship with no navigation. But that now they're gonna share that chart with you. Knowing that hey, wow, that looks like you |
| 156 | 00:33:23,970 --> 00:33:36,450 | really got in there. Folks, no one got in there this morning. Not at 830 in the morning, they did. That did not happen. At 831. Elvis left the building. That |
| 157 | 00:33:36,450 --> 00:33:51,750 | thing was already leaving Dixie, it's gone. So nobody's showing you a film at 830 in the morning today did not happen. So don't be fooled into believing that |
| 158 | 00:33:51,750 --> 00:33:56,790 | someone else out there was able to do that. Because they did not. Didn't happen. |
| 159 | 00:34:02,670 --> 00:34:21,240 | Now some of you might look at that and think there's got to be a way well, if you can find a way to find a broker to execute on your orders in the amount of |
| 160 | 00:34:21,240 --> 00:34:34,110 | time that it would require is fast is that market mood this morning. Go back and look I even showed a chart with second candles. One candle represents an entire |
| 161 | 00:34:34,140 --> 00:34:55,080 | one second interval. I shared that this morning on the Twitter nobody was getting filled. period but some of you are new. Some of you have next to no |
| 162 | 00:34:55,080 --> 00:35:12,720 | experience and it's easy to fall victim, the folks that just show you a picture of something or demo entry, because demos can fill. It's just executing based on |
| 163 | 00:35:12,720 --> 00:35:22,050 | what that number of prices shown, there wasn't an actual fill. There's no other counterparty that at trade, there is no trade. It's this. Okay, that demo |
| 164 | 00:35:22,050 --> 00:35:35,070 | account is marking that time as a transaction, that would be considered a pretend trade. So it will fill because it doesn't have any hardship. It doesn't |
| 165 | 00:35:35,070 --> 00:35:47,610 | have a bill liquid state, in the marketplace, like we had this morning. There's a period of time where the broker simply simply this don't do anything. They're |
| 166 | 00:35:47,610 --> 00:36:02,820 | not going to fill anything. Oh, it doesn't make any sense. That's how it works. It's how it works, folks. It saves them all kinds of clerical administrative |
| 167 | 00:36:02,820 --> 00:36:16,260 | work, when complaints come in, say, I was filled here, and this isn't right. To get around all that problem. Just delay, no orders being filled at all. Delay. |
| 168 | 00:36:22,320 --> 00:36:34,800 | 30 seconds, 45 seconds a minute. 90 seconds. is no way it's happening. It happens, folks, it happens. And that's why it's important for you understand |
| 169 | 00:36:34,800 --> 00:36:46,110 | that you're not going to be a surgeon. On days like this, you just simply aren't. Just warm up to the idea that you don't need to be perfect on days like |
| 170 | 00:36:46,110 --> 00:36:58,230 | this. In fact, unless it comes right to you don't do anything. Don't push it don't insist that you get a feel that you have to have something out of the day, |
| 171 | 00:36:58,230 --> 00:37:12,450 | because it's going to be a big move. And I don't want to be without having something just give me a small little piece of it. You don't need it. You don't |
| 172 | 00:37:12,450 --> 00:37:24,810 | need it. You can trade your entire career and never take a trade on CPI and still do well. And that's what I want to leave you with, I want you to remember |
| 173 | 00:37:25,200 --> 00:37:42,060 | that it's not your job to place your entire success on the expectations of navigating, entering precisely and exiting precisely on a day like today. |
| 174 | 00:37:43,050 --> 00:37:55,500 | Because I can assure you that if anyone traded profitably, today, it was a very small class of individuals. And they weren't that precise. And he did not take |
| 175 | 00:37:55,500 --> 00:38:05,070 | that trade in the morning. Now in the afternoon, I saw obviously during the afternoon, there was a nice little move after lunch. But I looked at it |
| 176 | 00:38:05,070 --> 00:38:17,340 | hindsight bias and I didn't feel like I would have engaged that either because it just simply was in shock really to see how much it had dropped. Now I was |
| 177 | 00:38:17,340 --> 00:38:33,570 | actually in Peru impressed really to see how far it traversed from the high the morning to where it was noon or one o'clock. So I'm thinking to myself today I |
| 178 | 00:38:33,570 --> 00:38:43,560 | found my way along. Conversational a phone call. I don't know the person is associated one of my personal friends. And he he called and was basically come |
| 179 | 00:38:43,560 --> 00:38:51,900 | to me about the marketplace. Like I was actually impressed with the way he handled himself. He acted like we knew each other for a long time. I knew he was |
| 180 | 00:38:51,900 --> 00:39:04,050 | recording because every like 30 seconds the phone with like beep. So he was basically like picking my brain asked me, you know, how was it that a trade and |
| 181 | 00:39:04,350 --> 00:39:16,620 | you know, he's done. He's an options trader, and he's been trading a long time and you want to see what our friend, our mutual friend was describing me to him. |
| 182 | 00:39:18,240 --> 00:39:29,730 | So I didn't get a chance to watch the market live. But I can look at this and be honest with you and tell you that I probably would have sat there the entire |
| 183 | 00:39:29,730 --> 00:39:40,770 | day. And done nothing. Just watched it. I can only look at it over my shoulder as I was pacing through the house because the conversation went longer than I |
| 184 | 00:39:41,310 --> 00:39:57,120 | wanted to but I didn't want to be rude to him because he was friends with a mutual friend of mine. But I guess when you see a big move like this, the |
| 185 | 00:39:57,120 --> 00:40:05,790 | natural tendency is to want to ask someone that has been doing it longer? And the questions are like, Okay, did you trade today? Did you take a trade today? |
| 186 | 00:40:06,390 --> 00:40:15,510 | How much did you trade? What was the amount of leverage that you use that you use a stop loss? What would you think's going to happen tomorrow? And where do |
| 187 | 00:40:15,510 --> 00:40:28,770 | you see it going, you know, in a week or two? And I guess it's like, if I was on a question and answer, like, say, I opened this up, and all these people in here |
| 188 | 00:40:28,770 --> 00:40:39,420 | that have been requesting to talk to me, which I never let you do that, by the way, the the questions will be probably similar to that, like, you know, what's |
| 189 | 00:40:39,420 --> 00:40:52,140 | the next trade? Like, what's the next idea? And that kind of tells you where someone's development is? Right now. The folks that aren't interested in |
| 190 | 00:40:52,140 --> 00:41:02,010 | understanding what just took place, why it's important, how it's likely to repeat in the future, the same way, the folks that just simply want to know, |
| 191 | 00:41:02,010 --> 00:41:16,140 | what's the next move? What's the Mars buys? I'm am I buying tomorrow? Am I selling short tomorrow? What's the target? That to me, |
| 192 | 00:41:18,030 --> 00:41:30,000 | is a little disappointing. Because not only have I already proven myself in that regard, but it really what you're doing is you're saying, Okay, I'm not, I'm not |
| 193 | 00:41:30,000 --> 00:41:38,640 | interested in learning how to do this, I'm not interested in going through all your long, boring videos. My time is better served with just simply expecting |
| 194 | 00:41:38,640 --> 00:41:47,100 | you to just pony up a trade idea. Or even worse, you get folks that come in, say, Well, you know, I'm not gonna believe you unless you get on the leaderboard |
| 195 | 00:41:47,100 --> 00:42:00,600 | on F tml. Okay, if you need that, then good luck to yourself, because I'm not interested in doing an HTML, like, I'm not interested in that at all. But for |
| 196 | 00:42:00,600 --> 00:42:11,700 | folks that want to just simply know what the next trade idea is, you're really sounding off in the most obvious manner that you have absolutely. Got to the |
| 197 | 00:42:11,700 --> 00:42:21,540 | point or not willing to leave the initial idea of what it's going to take for you to learn how to do this. You simply want someone to hand deliver you a trade |
| 198 | 00:42:21,540 --> 00:42:30,030 | idea. And I could do that every day. And it still would be somebody else changing their account and saying, Okay, I'm just gonna ask him as someone else, |
| 199 | 00:42:30,240 --> 00:42:39,000 | because I just want to have a signal service. And me act as an Oracle, I don't want to do that. It's not fulfilling to me, and you're not learning anything |
| 200 | 00:42:39,000 --> 00:42:48,210 | from it. You really aren't learning anything from that. What have you learned so far this year, by me just simply telling you where it's gonna go? |
| 201 | 00:42:53,640 --> 00:43:07,680 | make you a better trader? No. It just gives you little moments in time where this logic is valid. But you still have to find your entry. You still have to |
| 202 | 00:43:07,680 --> 00:43:17,280 | define the risk. And how are you? You the person listening right now? How are you going to determine when you're going to get your first partial, because |
| 203 | 00:43:17,280 --> 00:43:26,220 | we're not going to have the same first partial, none of us are, you're all going to have some reason as to why you're taking off some if you're going to take a |
| 204 | 00:43:26,220 --> 00:43:36,960 | partial. And what's your target going to be at the end, where's terminus for you, where's the last bit of the juice that's going to come out of that lemon |
| 205 | 00:43:36,960 --> 00:43:48,000 | that you're in there, trying to squeeze the life out of? Where's it going to be the end for you? Because it's gonna be different from all of us. So this is why |
| 206 | 00:43:48,000 --> 00:43:59,040 | I don't like to do those types of follow me copy me type trading, teaching. Because the logic that I'm gonna subscribe to, when that specific fractal, |
| 207 | 00:43:59,070 --> 00:44:09,720 | whatever time frame I'm utilizing, you don't have that. And because I'm trading with ultra small timeframes, to decision processes that I'm going through, I |
| 208 | 00:44:09,720 --> 00:44:18,900 | don't have the luxury of completely outlining everything as it's happening because it's fluid. It's like it's happening right then and there. Sometimes I |
| 209 | 00:44:18,900 --> 00:44:29,100 | have the ability to annotate the chart and try to tell you what's going to happen. Other times, it's going to move too quickly. And you're not going to |
| 210 | 00:44:29,100 --> 00:44:42,420 | learn from that. It may be inspiring to you, it may encourage you, but that level of being able to replicate that yourself to the exact degree. I don't ever |
| 211 | 00:44:42,420 --> 00:44:52,410 | promise that. In fact, I'm telling you, that's not going to happen. What you're going to find is what you're comfortable with chicken in terms of a trade and |
| 212 | 00:44:52,410 --> 00:45:01,950 | where your entry is going to be based on the same logic. But how you manage when you're going to move your stop. Are you ever going to move your stop How much of |
| 213 | 00:45:01,950 --> 00:45:11,700 | a partial Are you going to take? You see, all these questions are a unique thing that that would. That's what makes you your independent thinking. Trader, like |
| 214 | 00:45:11,700 --> 00:45:24,720 | you are the person in control that the driver's seat is yours. The steering wheel is in your hands. And the results are yours. Good or bad. Most of you in |
| 215 | 00:45:24,720 --> 00:45:37,830 | here simply want me to give you the easy stuff. So you can feel like you did it yourself. Wow. Yeah. I did awesome. Today. I found everything he did. What does |
| 216 | 00:45:37,830 --> 00:45:47,190 | that mean? You didn't do anything? You didn't put any thought behind the trade? You have no idea. You're just blindly just taking it and hoping I'm right. And |
| 217 | 00:45:47,190 --> 00:45:59,040 | hope ICTs right today. Good grief. What happens if he goes into a 10 losing trade? Tailspin today? And I go in, and I don't see it happening that way. And |
| 218 | 00:45:59,040 --> 00:46:07,890 | then I over leveraged my account, because I want to get it back in one quarter the move he's expecting to have in the next trade setup. And then that goes into |
| 219 | 00:46:07,890 --> 00:46:21,990 | a tailspin. Now You wrecked yourself. And you'd find some way to blame that. It happened on America Online folks. That kind of stuff happened. I learned from |
| 220 | 00:46:21,990 --> 00:46:38,670 | that no matter what I do. If it's me placing a trade in your hands, you will not learn from that. You won't. And you cannot learn from teachers and mentors that |
| 221 | 00:46:38,670 --> 00:46:51,090 | are going to tell you today was an ideal trading day. Because the morning session that was murder. That's what it looks like when you go into the |
| 222 | 00:46:51,090 --> 00:47:12,540 | slaughterhouse you fall victim or you escape it just by the skin of your teeth. That's that bullet by Heiko got really filled poorly. And then how do you manage |
| 223 | 00:47:12,540 --> 00:47:29,280 | that? What happens if you were to put an order in and it filled you 50 handles below the Hi. Are you gonna sit here and tell me that you're going to have the |
| 224 | 00:47:29,280 --> 00:47:37,470 | confidence to think there's no way it's going to retrace any bit of that 50 handles, it's just going to be a steady drop from there. You don't know that. |
| 225 | 00:47:37,470 --> 00:47:46,200 | And I didn't know that. But it's easy. Look at the chart now. Because you're home from school, your home from work, you woke up from your slumber that |
| 226 | 00:47:46,200 --> 00:47:54,480 | normally occurs during the time that that move probably happened. And it looks so easy. It looks so obvious now because hindsight. |
| 227 | 00:47:56,070 --> 00:48:04,830 | You don't have any the adversities of having to put that trade on with real money or with a demo account. And having pride and ego be there as the equity. |
| 228 | 00:48:05,820 --> 00:48:15,480 | You know, the ones that you always reset your demo account paper trade account with. It sucked. That's where you are. And if that's where you are, you have a |
| 229 | 00:48:15,480 --> 00:48:24,750 | lot to learn. But you don't go into learning and developing beyond where you are by looking at things like this and thinking to yourself. Yeah, I could have |
| 230 | 00:48:24,750 --> 00:48:32,370 | been, I could have been a part of that move. No, not this morning. He wouldn't have you would not have been in any of that move this morning, with anything |
| 231 | 00:48:32,370 --> 00:48:48,060 | that I teach. And if you're in here trying to force and form fit something, I'm telling you, you're wasting your time is not there. Trust me, it's not there. So |
| 232 | 00:48:48,060 --> 00:48:56,490 | why are you beating yourself up about it? Why are you depressed, you're depressed. Some of you are literally depressed because you were unable to |
| 233 | 00:48:56,610 --> 00:49:12,240 | participate in that big monster decline today. I promise there's going to be moving around tomorrow. Thursday and Friday, next one day, it's going to be |
| 234 | 00:49:12,240 --> 00:49:24,870 | moving around folks. There'll be new objects one day today is not your entire career compressed into one day. And I used to do that. I used to do that a lot. |
| 235 | 00:49:26,610 --> 00:49:30,570 | 27 years old, coming home from work tired hating life |
| 236 | 00:49:36,510 --> 00:49:51,330 | missing a move. If I wasn't in that stupid truck, I could have got that move. No. That's not a guarantee. Just because I saw it on my chart. Doesn't mean I |
| 237 | 00:49:51,330 --> 00:50:02,700 | could have been a participant in that move. But that's the type of stuff I used to fill my head out with. And it would make it worse and then the next day, what |
| 238 | 00:50:02,700 --> 00:50:19,470 | am I feeling? Regret? Anger, impatience. You know what, yesterday was a lot. So you know what, I'm gonna get my pound of flesh today, because I'm going to make |
| 239 | 00:50:19,470 --> 00:50:28,590 | it move like that I'm going to get in a trade and it's going to do the same thing I did yesterday. No logic behind that just simply me being stupid and 20 |
| 240 | 00:50:28,590 --> 00:50:53,040 | years old going ready to open to the market opened up Fox investments are going to help you each desk one second. Ah desk, can number password, give a handy |
| 241 | 00:50:53,040 --> 00:51:11,730 | free clean 12 bonds at the market, I'll wait for my fill. Where's the logic in that? I just gotta get in there. Because I am mad that I didn't catch that five |
| 242 | 00:51:12,660 --> 00:51:23,070 | point move in the bond market the previous day, a $5,000 move per contract. I missed it. So, damn it, you owe me. So I'm going to go on there and do |
| 243 | 00:51:23,070 --> 00:51:35,490 | something. That's it. This type of thought process creates people that don't have control over themselves. And when I was 20, I had absolutely no control. I |
| 244 | 00:51:35,490 --> 00:51:50,490 | was that little I was that little boat out there in a storm. No rudder. Wherever my emotions would take me that's where I ended up. In these types of days left |
| 245 | 00:51:50,670 --> 00:52:01,650 | to a neophyte will create all of these toxic? What if thinking, what if I would have done this? And what have I done that? And you carry that over into the next |
| 246 | 00:52:01,650 --> 00:52:12,990 | trading session? And it creates what? Chaos? That's why I adopt the rule. When there's a big move like this, whether I'm a participant or not, I cannot take |
| 247 | 00:52:13,020 --> 00:52:23,430 | the morning session trade. Will they have a setup tomorrow morning? It probably will. Will I engage it tomorrow morning? No. But wait a minute, you're ICT Yep. |
| 248 | 00:52:24,060 --> 00:52:35,910 | And that means I have rules. That's why I'm able to say what I think is gonna happen. And it happens most of the time. Plan a Plan B, not buy or sell. And |
| 249 | 00:52:35,910 --> 00:52:44,580 | then here it is it worked out my favor. I'm not showing you charts with a squiggly line, it says an Arrow or Down Arrow and the floor. It's useless. |
| 250 | 00:52:44,880 --> 00:52:55,170 | Anybody can do that. It has to be one sidedness. And I have to know where it's going. Not a general direction, a level, a specific level, I'm looking for |
| 251 | 00:52:55,170 --> 00:53:06,210 | liquidity. And that's what it's going to target. And if I don't have that, I'm being still and I don't feel uncomfortable being so when I first did first year |
| 252 | 00:53:06,210 --> 00:53:21,750 | mentorship, and I was doing live sessions every single day seeing seeing 100 people you know, in a chat room that you're in with GoToWebinar. And they're all |
| 253 | 00:53:21,780 --> 00:53:32,010 | expecting you to see their questions. No, I saw they were flying by you real quick. There's no way I could have stopped and read all of them. But they've all |
| 254 | 00:53:32,010 --> 00:53:44,040 | paid. And they're in here expecting to have their question answered, while I'm watching live Forex price action. Now, I'm not sure if you ever had 100 People |
| 255 | 00:53:44,310 --> 00:53:51,870 | come at you with different questions about the same time. And you understand that they have paid you. So there is an obligation on your part. And you feel |
| 256 | 00:53:51,870 --> 00:54:01,590 | that because some of them are very assertive. They're saying I've asked this question now six times or eight times and you keep ignoring me and you can't you |
| 257 | 00:54:01,590 --> 00:54:15,780 | can't focus that same type of individual is the same person is going to look at a day like this and think to themselves I would have been a part of that but I |
| 258 | 00:54:15,780 --> 00:54:28,320 | missed it. And they're gonna carry that anxiety, that depression that rage that they missed that move and they're gonna do something tomorrow or the next |
| 259 | 00:54:28,320 --> 00:54:36,840 | trading day. And when they make that error they're going to think themselves that it's this stuff that they're trying to trade with doesn't work |
| 260 | 00:54:40,710 --> 00:54:53,850 | oh, these fair value gaps don't work. Oh, these order blocks come on. When it's the driver to you're trying to get somewhere like a person with road rage |
| 261 | 00:54:59,219 --> 00:55:09,149 | and I can talk about where Rage cuz I experienced it and go live, you told you that to run over top my Corvette, what is pickup truck, somebody's getting their |
| 262 | 00:55:09,149 --> 00:55:23,879 | ass beat. But that's just me. But you can't have these feelings about missed moves, missed opportunities and big Range Days, folks. It's funny thing that |
| 263 | 00:55:23,879 --> 00:55:34,859 | repeats a lot in these marketplaces, you know, small ranges bring large ranges. And large ranges bring small ranges. And there's a pattern in that that repeats |
| 264 | 00:55:34,889 --> 00:55:46,109 | over and over and over again. And you can predict when there's going to be large ranges based on the economic calendar, medium and high impact news events. So |
| 265 | 00:55:46,139 --> 00:55:56,399 | all this stuff repeats, there's no reason for any of you to have any kind of anxiety or depression or feeling any regret of missing today's move. None. None |
| 266 | 00:55:56,399 --> 00:56:11,099 | whatsoever. The markets have not stopped working, they haven't decided, hey, look, we can't have big moves anymore. And we did it all today. Like this is it |
| 267 | 00:56:11,279 --> 00:56:22,799 | guys listen, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, they sat around the table today, they said, Look, you know, a lot of the lot of smart guys in this crew here came to |
| 268 | 00:56:22,799 --> 00:56:32,519 | the decision that we have to subscribe to, you know, big ranges can't fucking happen no more like this is it, then we can never have another large range day. |
| 269 | 00:56:33,149 --> 00:56:38,969 | And that's just the way it's going to be for now. And, and everybody out there trading to this kind of thing, just gonna have to take it, there's nothing, |
| 270 | 00:56:39,329 --> 00:56:48,449 | there's nothing they can do about it. And you know, we set the rules here. So we're just gonna have small ranges for now. And it doesn't work like that, |
| 271 | 00:56:48,449 --> 00:56:55,979 | folks, we're gonna have big ranges again. And sometimes you'll be a participant in them. And other times you'll miss them too. And guess what, you'll be back to |
| 272 | 00:56:55,979 --> 00:57:08,369 | thinking about this same analogy here. And thinking yourself, man, I'm worried about this for no reason. You're trying to push your entire career into one day? |
| 273 | 00:57:09,839 --> 00:57:17,819 | Like this? Is it like, if you would have if you would have sold the high and tell it to the low of the day? Are you saying that that's it and you'd never |
| 274 | 00:57:17,819 --> 00:57:24,989 | want to take another trade ever again, like that's it, that's you at you your entire career right there. You aced the entire daily range on a big range day |
| 275 | 00:57:24,989 --> 00:57:36,539 | like this 170 Plus handles, you've done it all now. Gone recently and next. That's what you're saying, right? Of course not. So why would you look at it |
| 276 | 00:57:36,539 --> 00:57:46,769 | from the perspective that you missed the move. So therefore, you're a failure. That's not That's not sound logic, it look at that, like that. And you can't |
| 277 | 00:57:46,769 --> 00:58:00,509 | look at any of your trading where it should be encapsulated in one trading day. The only people that do this or do things like that are the people that blow |
| 278 | 00:58:00,509 --> 00:58:21,449 | their accounts take apart this now. When I was 20 years old, every single time every that I blew the live accounts. I did that with that mentality that it has |
| 279 | 00:58:21,449 --> 00:58:35,759 | to all come together today. It has to be today. This trading day has to be it's a be all end all. Like I gotta fucking make money on this day or it's done. I'm |
| 280 | 00:58:35,759 --> 00:58:42,779 | never gonna make money outside of this day. This is going to be it I get to do every bit of the profit I'm ever gonna have in my trading career on this day. |
| 281 | 00:58:43,259 --> 00:58:55,019 | And dammit, as long as that trading hours I'm going to do it I'm going to do every bit of winning trades in this day. Thanks for the front doors locks on |
| 282 | 00:59:01,560 --> 00:59:17,370 | sorry. That's Cameron. So he's running a job. I make these boys work. I make them work. And some of you clowns out there that want to try to give me parental |
| 283 | 00:59:17,370 --> 00:59:29,160 | advice. I save it okay, that your kids go to college. Hopefully I'll get a good career it's fine. My boys want but they have to know what it feels like to be |
| 284 | 00:59:29,190 --> 00:59:45,690 | uncomfortable. That means working jobs that suck and don't mind doing it because it builds character. It lets them appreciate the folks that have to do that but |
| 285 | 00:59:47,430 --> 01:00:06,510 | go down so many rabbit trails remain stay on focus Michael. to Don't miss the point in all this Today, okay, I don't want you to think that you're going to |
| 286 | 01:00:06,510 --> 01:00:22,200 | have the ability to capture every single day, because I don't the human me the person that wants to be better than I was when I was 30. Better than I was when |
| 287 | 01:00:22,200 --> 01:00:36,120 | I was 35 Better than I was when I was 45. That person that competes with my younger self every day, I'd like to believe that I'm at the highest form of |
| 288 | 01:00:36,990 --> 01:00:50,610 | speculators I've ever been. And right now, in my present state, I believe I am. But I am not oblivious to where I made mistakes when I was younger. And when I |
| 289 | 01:00:50,610 --> 01:01:01,890 | was 20, every single time I blew a Live account, it was worth with this mentality of, Okay, I gotta make it all happen today. And usually, it would be |
| 290 | 01:01:01,920 --> 01:01:10,410 | on the heels of something like the morning move where I missed it. And I'm thinking myself, Oh, man, it's gonna, it's gonna really go further. And then I |
| 291 | 01:01:10,410 --> 01:01:25,200 | would get in chasing it. And then a small little move. And I'm talking such an insignificant minor fluctuation. go against me just a little bit. And I would |
| 292 | 01:01:25,200 --> 01:01:37,680 | come unraveled. Like you didn't even come close to a stop loss, didn't come near it. But because I was poorly positioned, my entry sucked because I chased it. |
| 293 | 01:01:38,400 --> 01:01:48,300 | I'm driving around trying to fill up these vending machines, 20 years old, I'm hot, my air conditioner mark in my truck. I have every possible disadvantage |
| 294 | 01:01:48,300 --> 01:01:57,690 | going on. Like, I don't think anybody could have ever done what I was trying to do ever. But in my mind is a 20 year old because that's, I understand you guys |
| 295 | 01:01:57,690 --> 01:02:06,210 | that are 20 You think your shit doesn't think you think you're gonna be the one I'm telling you, you're gonna be just like everybody else. And I was just like |
| 296 | 01:02:06,210 --> 01:02:14,790 | everybody else when I was 20. This is what happens when your parents and your uncles that are older than you and they tell you, you, okay, we listened to your |
| 297 | 01:02:14,790 --> 01:02:22,410 | bullshit, you're gonna do something, you're gonna do that you're gonna do that. We know, just like, we felt that same shit. When we were younger, we t really |
| 298 | 01:02:22,410 --> 01:02:29,610 | tight, try to do that stuff. And you know, you'll learn, then you get wisdom. I'm not saying you're gonna fail, but you think you're going to be different. |
| 299 | 01:02:30,090 --> 01:02:39,900 | And I thought I was gonna be different to I'm different. I'm built different. But it took a long time to get here. And a lot of adversity and a lot of lost |
| 300 | 01:02:39,900 --> 01:02:56,940 | money. A lot of you would have quit way beyond the law, not me. But way before. The things I put myself through. And I tried to lift myself up on the same I |
| 301 | 01:02:56,940 --> 01:03:07,680 | just wasn't gonna quit. I wasn't quitting. And a lot of folks at 20 years old aren't going to put up with adversities that this industry is going to put on |
| 302 | 01:03:07,680 --> 01:03:22,800 | them unless they're taught to view things correctly. And one of the things that always is the case, with blowing accounts, your four forcing your hand, in such |
| 303 | 01:03:22,800 --> 01:03:33,180 | a small little interval of time, it might not be just that one day, it might be in a series of two days, or three days, or that trading week. Because you're not |
| 304 | 01:03:33,480 --> 01:03:43,710 | fucking closing this week with a loss. You're gonna come back. Because you all love Rocky, you got the Rocky theme going on? You're down 65% Because you didn't |
| 305 | 01:03:43,710 --> 01:03:50,070 | fucking listen, you didn't use a stop loss. You're trying to do everything in the world, add more indicators, changing the settings checking YouTube, who's |
| 306 | 01:03:50,070 --> 01:03:57,270 | doing what right now? Oh, shit, he's doing that in the Eurodollar. Let me go ahead and do that. You're all trying to do something like it's going to be the |
| 307 | 01:03:57,270 --> 01:04:00,900 | magic, you know, ingredients to everything. |
| 308 | 01:04:03,690 --> 01:04:20,880 | Can you blow your account? Because you're pushing all of your career. Your whole career now is in the next few decisions. And guess what? You're actually shocked |
| 309 | 01:04:21,750 --> 01:04:35,430 | when the result of those decisions. amounts to yes, your career is dusted. You blew another account. Because you're trying to do something that is impossible. |
| 310 | 01:04:36,360 --> 01:04:48,060 | You're putting something on yourself as a trader as a speculator. And you're trying to insist upon you being perfect. In all circumstances that you're in |
| 311 | 01:04:48,060 --> 01:04:55,920 | right now. The markets gonna be perfectly in sync with you and you're gonna be in sync with it. It's not going to have zero drawdown. You're not gonna have any |
| 312 | 01:04:56,310 --> 01:05:14,970 | anxiety and you get the maximum out of the move. After you've missed the initial move, or after you have taken trades that have caused drawdown, some of these |
| 313 | 01:05:14,970 --> 01:05:26,820 | things are painfully recognizable. These are the things you'd like to ignore never happened, but you have to endure them. Embrace them, and learn from them. |
| 314 | 01:05:27,840 --> 01:05:37,980 | Tell I got where I am today. I didn't run from that stuff. I journaled it, I read it, I lived it. And I said, Okay, what am I doing every time I blow an |
| 315 | 01:05:37,980 --> 01:05:48,240 | account and 20? What the fuck do I got to do to fix this? And I found that it was me doing like today, you're probably thinking about the marketplace. And for |
| 316 | 01:05:48,240 --> 01:06:02,850 | those who have maybe went in and chased price and got hurt. This means something to you. It resonates with you. Or maybe today you didn't do something, but maybe |
| 317 | 01:06:02,850 --> 01:06:10,920 | because I told you, I wasn't doing anything. And I'm done. That was an encouragement for you to say, you know, what if ICTs not doing it? Sure, it's |
| 318 | 01:06:10,920 --> 01:06:23,340 | fucking touching. And it was good. I'm glad you listened. If I'm not doing something, that's one of the best things for you to copycat. But you're gonna |
| 319 | 01:06:23,340 --> 01:06:32,250 | see folks come up behind the scenes. They weren't there calling the move. They weren't there saying, I'm doing this. Here's my entry. Here's my stop, here's my |
| 320 | 01:06:32,250 --> 01:06:43,080 | target. They're gonna come back after the fact and say, Oh, you didn't do anything? Oh, you're silly. ICT isn't that a trade. But we were nowhere to be |
| 321 | 01:06:43,080 --> 01:06:48,360 | found when it was hot and heavy. And we could have done something to prove we knew what the fuck you're doing. See, there's all kinds of armchair |
| 322 | 01:06:48,360 --> 01:06:57,660 | quarterbacks. They're all going to come in after the fact. And don't let that stuff bother you. Because again, these are the same people, they're always going |
| 323 | 01:06:57,660 --> 01:07:06,570 | to come after the fact they're always going to show you screenshots of something that they had 15 examples up running. But they're going to share it after the |
| 324 | 01:07:06,570 --> 01:07:16,920 | fact. So here's the trade I was in. Why didn't you call it out? In the Twitter when I said I wasn't touching it anymore. That's what's lacking all the time. |
| 325 | 01:07:18,000 --> 01:07:30,360 | But some of you are so new, it's easily. Taking your attention away from the obvious, you're distracted easily, because you're trying to find a person right |
| 326 | 01:07:30,360 --> 01:07:43,170 | now with the hot hand. I don't have a hot hand, I have a steady hand. My hand is steady. I know my stuff repeats, I don't need to have my things unfold in one |
| 327 | 01:07:43,170 --> 01:07:53,820 | particular day. For me to establish dominance. I don't have to be here every single day doing something. I can pick and choose what calendar events that I'm |
| 328 | 01:07:53,820 --> 01:08:06,480 | going to participate in. And navigate the entire month like that. And be okay with it. And be okay with people thinking. It should have been better or I |
| 329 | 01:08:06,480 --> 01:08:19,140 | should have done more. Or why did I do this? Am I do that. I'm not here to be criticized, I'm not here to be scored. I'm not here for that. And neither should |
| 330 | 01:08:19,140 --> 01:08:36,060 | you be. But you as the driver, you're in the captain's chair, and you're sailing that ship. Your destination is success. But success isn't a one port |
| 331 | 01:08:36,060 --> 01:08:55,770 | destination. It's multiple stops continuously. So you got to stop thinking about your trading day, or your next trade. That's the final destination. So you have |
| 332 | 01:08:55,770 --> 01:09:03,870 | to look past that you have to look past the results of the next trade. Because if that next trade doesn't arrive at success |
| 333 | 01:09:08,400 --> 01:09:19,890 | you're not surprised. You're not taken aback by it. You're not affected by it. It doesn't sink your ship. But days like this, even when you didn't participate, |
| 334 | 01:09:20,220 --> 01:09:31,800 | these are the fertile grounds for chaos. And folks, let me tell you something, go to bed with a fertile mind. Like these like this would create and think about |
| 335 | 01:09:31,800 --> 01:09:41,640 | how I'm gonna go on here and I gotta I gotta fix this feeling. I've missed something. Well, how do you run out there tomorrow and press a button too fast |
| 336 | 01:09:41,640 --> 01:09:54,300 | without thinking about it. And then soon as you lose, you know, damn well, while you did to what I talked about here tonight. And when you do it tomorrow, and |
| 337 | 01:09:54,300 --> 01:10:04,620 | some of you still will kind of hurt even more now because I told you and you Still can't control yourself. It's not the method that's failing. It's you |
| 338 | 01:10:05,460 --> 01:10:17,940 | you're a captain that has no navigation skills. That's all I'm lending you my experience behind the wheel I've been through these waters before and then when |
| 339 | 01:10:17,940 --> 01:10:23,190 | the tide gets a little rough and I know when Derek's |
| 340 | 01:10:30,750 --> 01:10:41,010 | just don't go out there tomorrow trying to prove yourself just relax and go slow. You have plenty of opportunities ahead of you. We have plenty of week left |
| 341 | 01:10:41,280 --> 01:10:50,700 | we have plenty a month left the fall is just about to start like these are the these are the times when the market gets really nice. And don't let this one day |
| 342 | 01:10:50,910 --> 01:11:01,200 | trick you into thinking this is the entire move there's nothing else after this. That's not true. She just got to relax when they took off this more not turn he |
| 343 | 01:11:01,200 --> 01:11:15,330 | had like bug eyes just to sit near like really big eyes that's it Look how fast that thing moved. Like a deer in headlights just staring at the chart. He was |
| 344 | 01:11:16,320 --> 01:11:28,050 | just smiling. I was like yeah, really quick because it didn't get a chance to do anything dad I was like oh no. But I'm glad I recorded it and glad you got a |
| 345 | 01:11:28,050 --> 01:11:39,540 | chance to see it in real time because again Market Replay that's not the same you will not see it the same way that it was done live and there's absolutely no |
| 346 | 01:11:39,540 --> 01:11:51,000 | way these Cracker Jacks out there that pretend to do sniper entries here and sniper entries there and they're getting in always at the high tax on these high |
| 347 | 01:11:51,000 --> 01:12:04,650 | impact news events. I'm calling bullshit. Okay, because believe me if it was possible I wouldn't did it and you can see how fast it was today just simply |
| 348 | 01:12:04,650 --> 01:12:17,820 | would have never never given you a ticket. You would have been sitting there watching the runway like I did. So the moral of story is this. Your trading |
| 349 | 01:12:17,820 --> 01:12:33,330 | career is not a one day event. It's not a one week event. So don't treat it like that. Missed moves is a profitable trade every time. Every single time is zero |
| 350 | 01:12:33,330 --> 01:12:50,280 | drawdown. That's the best fill a missed move is a perfect trade because you have no drawdown you have no negative impact psychologically because it didn't take |
| 351 | 01:12:50,310 --> 01:12:59,640 | anything from you you don't pay any Commission's on that you don't pay any spreads on that. It is a learning experience. It's all upside but think about |
| 352 | 01:12:59,640 --> 01:13:14,640 | how you view this day before I said what I just said how do you look at this day? Man I missed this the ACA down a lot that day. I just want to hit part of |
| 353 | 01:13:14,640 --> 01:13:24,900 | that today I would have been great. You're filling up your head with all this toxicity instead of looking at it like you should you didn't weather anything |
| 354 | 01:13:25,260 --> 01:13:34,650 | that was painful. You didn't pay any Commission's you didn't suffer a loss. You didn't have the anxiety of being in the market for real and not knowing where to |
| 355 | 01:13:34,650 --> 01:13:50,580 | delegate out at. And you know, damn well you wouldn't have had a stop where would you have put it? Hello. What logic would you have used to place a stop |
| 356 | 01:13:50,580 --> 01:13:51,720 | loss in this morning's move |
| 357 | 01:13:57,600 --> 01:14:09,750 | it was gone. So wherever you would have lost, it would have been wrong. There is no reason to put it wherever you would have tried to put it because it's a move |
| 358 | 01:14:09,750 --> 01:14:21,330 | that's been chased. So you never would have put a stop loss on. And that's the reality of it all. You have to be sober and honest with yourself. That's what |
| 359 | 01:14:21,330 --> 01:14:32,640 | journals are for. So on a journal entry like today, you should be thinking to yourself, hey, you know what? This was an amazing move a lot of volatility, |
| 360 | 01:14:32,880 --> 01:14:49,770 | speed, dealers amounts of speed. But I'm so thankful that I did not get in there today and find harm or suffer a loss. Because of the velocity this market was |
| 361 | 01:14:49,800 --> 01:15:04,260 | presented and in there was no way for me to engage it. So I'm happy that my model did not put me in a position where I was suffering a loss, drawdown? |
| 362 | 01:15:06,240 --> 01:15:18,180 | Anxiety. And that's how you treat it. And on Saturday or Sunday, when you reflect on it when the markets not trading, you come back to that entry and look |
| 363 | 01:15:18,180 --> 01:15:27,930 | at it and look at how the week the market closed. And you reflect on how it makes you feel. What are you going to be reading on the day like today? Your |
| 364 | 01:15:27,930 --> 01:15:38,100 | your positive? I'm glad I did not suffer a loss. I'm glad that my model didn't put me in a trade that that was a losing trade. I didn't have any anxiety |
| 365 | 01:15:38,100 --> 01:15:50,730 | because I didn't get a valid setup. Yeah, the market moved. Didn't give me a valid setup. So I didn't have anything to regret. See how disarming that is? |
| 366 | 01:15:52,800 --> 01:16:07,680 | That's self talk. That's positive self talk. Some of you simply just want to troll yourself, Oh, I'm never gonna get this. I'm so stupid. When am I ever |
| 367 | 01:16:07,680 --> 01:16:19,950 | going to learn how to do this? For fuck sake, I've watched 50 videos of this guy and I still can't get the work. I knew how it feels sometimes man, I know. It's |
| 368 | 01:16:19,950 --> 01:16:29,010 | hard to stay positive. And the key self talk, you do it in your journal, because you're gonna refer back to that at the end of the week. And you'll also refer |
| 369 | 01:16:29,010 --> 01:16:38,250 | back to it when you have periods of drawdown. When you're going through periods of drawdown, one of the things in your journal like maybe on the inside cover of |
| 370 | 01:16:38,250 --> 01:16:46,980 | it, when you had a really good week, and just the upbeat positive week, you want to write down those dates down and just keep a running tally of that. And when |
| 371 | 01:16:46,980 --> 01:16:54,660 | you have a period of drawdown, where you're taking losses, or just you're in a rut, you just can't find your groove. Because that's gonna happen to not |
| 372 | 01:16:54,660 --> 01:17:05,280 | necessarily moving into the market and taking losses. But just simply not being able to engage, just moves constantly happening, you're not in it, you're gonna |
| 373 | 01:17:05,280 --> 01:17:14,460 | want to find periods where you can go back and say, this was a high point, let me read how I was entering my journal entries at that time. And you'll relive |
| 374 | 01:17:14,460 --> 01:17:24,360 | that moment again, because it's in your own words. And that is what helps you get carried through these rough patches. Don't listen to me in let your only |
| 375 | 01:17:24,360 --> 01:17:31,950 | source of encouragement, you got to find that in yourself. And you do that to your journaling. No one's gonna be able to empower you and inspire you better |
| 376 | 01:17:32,220 --> 01:17:41,730 | than your own experiences where you walk that walk. Nobody can take that from you, nobody can minimize it. And if I can strip it away from you, those |
| 377 | 01:17:41,730 --> 01:17:53,700 | experiences are real, you log them, you lived it, you were there in a moment. And when you capture that, in your own words, using self talk, ever putting |
| 378 | 01:17:53,700 --> 01:18:00,960 | negative things in there, like Oh, I'm never going to learn how to do this, I'm stupid. This is too hard. They're negative reinforcements that your subconscious |
| 379 | 01:18:00,960 --> 01:18:12,840 | is going to repeat. So if you're feeding yourself positive feedback, that positive feedback loop that continuously delivers that same effect when you go |
| 380 | 01:18:12,840 --> 01:18:23,730 | back and refer to these positive entries on an event that wasn't really profitable by monetary terms, but you're coming out of that experience, with a |
| 381 | 01:18:23,730 --> 01:18:37,200 | positive outlook, you weren't derailed by it, you didn't take a losing trade, you didn't even engage because your model didn't give you a setup. Hey, you're |
| 382 | 01:18:37,200 --> 01:18:49,170 | gonna complain about that. But some of you still try to do it. And all I'm trying to do is just get your bearings back and set your compass the right way. |
| 383 | 01:18:51,360 --> 01:19:00,030 | Success is in front of you. But sometimes you get distracted, you want to look off to the starboard or port side. And you spend too much time looking over |
| 384 | 01:19:00,030 --> 01:19:15,900 | there, you'll get off course. And your journey becomes longer than it needs to be. So please was in a little bit of incitement to stay focused and not beat |
| 385 | 01:19:15,900 --> 01:19:28,290 | yourself up too much. And if that was, you know, what you encouraged yourself through with doing what I'm telling you to do with your journal entry. That's |
| 386 | 01:19:28,290 --> 01:19:40,830 | good. But if it doesn't inspire you, and you find things like this, or these discussions, not helpful to you. I don't know how to fix it for you. I don't |
| 387 | 01:19:40,830 --> 01:19:54,240 | know what else to do for you. Like I have no other magic wand. I have no other recipe. I don't have another silver bullet. It's a hard task to overcome |
| 388 | 01:19:54,240 --> 01:20:02,040 | yourself because you're the person that's stopping you from being successful in this. I've already given you a model that works, I've already given you tools |
| 389 | 01:20:02,040 --> 01:20:20,040 | and a roadmap. But if you choose not to follow up and you choose to make your own course, your own pathway, the duration is going to be longer. And the |
| 390 | 01:20:20,040 --> 01:20:30,300 | adversities are going to be harder. And you're going to probably be a whole lot more anxious, doing it differently. Because you're trying to reinvent the wheel, |
| 391 | 01:20:30,690 --> 01:20:43,350 | instead of just submitting to the process, which, admittedly is hard. It's hard. But everybody that gets there goes through it. Sometimes folks come in, they |
| 392 | 01:20:43,350 --> 01:20:51,990 | want to do it a little bit different. They want to do it their way. I'll take a little bit of this, I'll take a little bit of that, and then I'll call it mine. |
| 393 | 01:20:52,320 --> 01:21:01,320 | This is my approach. I took a little bit of this approach to what ICT does, I talk a little bit about what this guy you're here talks about. And then I have a |
| 394 | 01:21:01,320 --> 01:21:12,090 | Frankenstein kitchen sink approach to it. And you'll see here, the hit and miss times where it works. But it just won't be consistent, because you're not doing |
| 395 | 01:21:12,120 --> 01:21:24,330 | what I've taught you. And that's not to say that there aren't other profitable traders or teachers out there. I'm sure there are okay. But I don't want you |
| 396 | 01:21:24,360 --> 01:21:35,040 | trying to mix other things here. Because the things I'm teaching you that is the market. That's the market. It might not be flashy, it might not be extravagant, |
| 397 | 01:21:35,940 --> 01:21:48,540 | but it is the market. And if you warm up to the idea that boring is the best. Let your results be that spice. But doing the whole process of learning how to |
| 398 | 01:21:49,080 --> 01:21:59,460 | be a profitable speculator, that has to be boring, man. That has to be boring, because if it's any kind of emotion whatsoever, that sends you to a state of |
| 399 | 01:21:59,460 --> 01:22:07,710 | euphoria. Now, I'm not saying feel good when you are learning and it pans out in your favor. That's a natural thing. You'll feel good, you'll feel encouraged. |
| 400 | 01:22:08,130 --> 01:22:17,730 | But coming into this thinking that you're learning every single day, every aspect of learning how to do this has to be a sugar high. They're the |
| 401 | 01:22:17,730 --> 01:22:26,670 | individuals that don't stick with it. I'm honest with you, I'm telling you everybody that ever dropped out of mentorship. They are the ones that we're |
| 402 | 01:22:26,670 --> 01:22:39,840 | always chasing Instagram level type stuff, and Pop Sugar in entertain me. Go watch a movie, okay. Go go read a book or something if you want to be |
| 403 | 01:22:39,840 --> 01:22:48,060 | entertained. If you want to learn how to make a lot of fucking money keeps pull up a chair show up every day, and the rest will take care of itself. Until I'll |
| 404 | 01:22:48,060 --> 01:22:49,800 | talk to you next time. Be safe |