001-ict-tw-spaces-20230106-Why-I-do-not-trade-NonFarm-Payroll...
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2023-01-06 16:03
Outline
00:12 - Non-Farm Payrolls -.
01:45 - Why he doesn’t touch non-farm payroll days.
08:03 - The day that everybody loses money -.
13:29 - What’s likely to manifest itself if it happens over and over again.
18:50 - The hardest business to engage in because of the psychology.
23:20 - How do you avoid losing money? Nobody writes books about that.
26:38 - Why you need to show your demos.
32:34 - Why are you trying to push your career into one small micro fluctuation?
38:24 - Some of you don’t want to learn this lesson, some want to ignore it.
43:36 - How do you know if you’re listening to a liar?
49:48 - The fifth book is Everything Not To Do In Trading.
52:42 - If anybody was going to know this stuff, it would be me -.
58:22 - What is low resistance? -.
01:04:42 - Why I put myself in a situation I can’t correct today -.
01:10:43 - What if you were thinking about doing it, but didn’t?
Transcript
| 1 | 00:00:12,090 --> 00:00:22,650 | ICT: Good morning, folks. So, you weren't expecting this now, where are you? Alright, so we're going to talk a little bit about non farm payrolls. I'll try |
| 2 | 00:00:22,650 --> 00:00:34,890 | to get through this as quickly as I can before the market actually reacts to the news at 830. Obviously, if you're new, hopefully this will answer the question |
| 3 | 00:00:34,890 --> 00:00:44,670 | as to why I was commenting the way I was yesterday on Twitter. Also, for those that have watched my videos, like a Netflix series, and just binge watched, and |
| 4 | 00:00:44,670 --> 00:00:57,300 | just never really took notes, you won't really appreciate the level of gems, and insight that I'm laying down and all the videos because it's tucked inside all |
| 5 | 00:00:57,300 --> 00:01:09,870 | the discussion part, you know, the part that usually most people don't like to see. But as I mentioned, rather, a 3814 is a draw on liquidity for for EMS. And |
| 6 | 00:01:10,020 --> 00:01:21,990 | while we're spending a couple minutes together, at nine o'clock, I will be closing this Twitter space. But 3814 is a level that I had mentioned yesterday, |
| 7 | 00:01:21,990 --> 00:01:37,980 | I was looking for that as a draw on liquidity. And if you pull up your ES h 2023, chart on trading view, you'll note that it is the third, January 2, I'm |
| 8 | 00:01:37,980 --> 00:01:51,090 | sorry, January 3, of 2023, daily low. And that's what I believe that they're going to try to reach for. Now, before I go into all this, I want to understand |
| 9 | 00:01:51,090 --> 00:02:05,100 | that I generally do not touch Non Farm Payroll, I only do it in the past to show you that my precision isn't always up to snuff on those days, much like on |
| 10 | 00:02:05,250 --> 00:02:17,310 | Wednesday afternoons, and on Thursday, leading into Non Farm Payroll. So because I know I have hurt myself, and I've actually blown accounts as a young man, when |
| 11 | 00:02:17,580 --> 00:02:27,720 | trading those days, I learned by having a journal looking at where I was repeating issues and things that were problematic. Those were the days that I |
| 12 | 00:02:27,720 --> 00:02:34,410 | predominantly would dust myself because it's the beginning of a new month. Like everything else, like a New Year's resolution, people are gonna get there, I'm |
| 13 | 00:02:34,410 --> 00:02:44,310 | gonna get more muscles, I'm gonna get leaner, I'm gonna exercise more, I'm gonna save money, I'm gonna go on a budget, everybody starts off with a, a mindset, |
| 14 | 00:02:44,910 --> 00:02:54,330 | excuse me a paradigm shift in the way they think about what they're going to set out for as a goal. And strive to do very well, hopefully doing that, well at the |
| 15 | 00:02:54,330 --> 00:03:05,910 | beginning of the month. As young men out have my account funded, saving up money and such. And I would try very hard on the first week, thinking okay, the |
| 16 | 00:03:05,910 --> 00:03:14,460 | weekends come, I gotta make all my money. And then those days going into Non Farm Payroll would ruin me. So I learned my lesson from that. Now, the market |
| 17 | 00:03:14,460 --> 00:03:26,850 | obviously will gyrate around and I generally get some Non Farm Payroll, analysis ideas, right, but not most of them. Okay, if I am honest with you, I'm telling |
| 18 | 00:03:26,850 --> 00:03:37,710 | you the upfront and I tell my students this all the time. Why would I? Why would I try to get out there and arm wrestle the market when I know that that is where |
| 19 | 00:03:37,710 --> 00:03:47,760 | my kryptonite is. If I'm if I can identify where my weaknesses are, and I am mature enough to know that that's where my weaknesses reside? Why would I go in |
| 20 | 00:03:47,790 --> 00:04:01,650 | do that very thing, challenging whether or not that still exists as a truth. It would be ridiculous right for anyone. So also real quick. While I do believe |
| 21 | 00:04:01,650 --> 00:04:16,260 | 3014 is a likely draw on non farm payrolls, 38 04 and a half. Also note that as well, that would also be December 28, Wednesday of 2022. There's a daily low |
| 22 | 00:04:16,260 --> 00:04:25,350 | there. And let's just say for instance, the market really unravels today. And I'm not saying I'm alright. Okay, but I want you to see these are where I am |
| 23 | 00:04:25,590 --> 00:04:32,310 | expecting the market to go to today. And if it doesn't go there, then you're going to clearly see that this is the reason why I don't want to engage this is |
| 24 | 00:04:32,310 --> 00:04:41,010 | exactly why I tell my students don't trade those days. Because it's a it's a carnival ride is a whole lot of volatility generally coming in, in the first 15 |
| 25 | 00:04:41,010 --> 00:04:52,770 | or 20 minutes or so after the news release in about eight or seven minutes from now. Right now it's 822 Eastern time in the US. And if you watch this this |
| 26 | 00:04:52,770 --> 00:05:00,330 | morning and say it completely goes the opposite direction. I'm gonna feel vindicated because I'm gonna say that this is the reason why I don't do it. Now, |
| 27 | 00:05:00,360 --> 00:05:07,560 | worst case scenario, some of you are in here listening to this and you're going to be looking to do something and you're going to try to trade it and look for a |
| 28 | 00:05:07,560 --> 00:05:16,860 | move to go to 3814 and or a move to 38 04 and a half. Okay? And it's going to go the other way, tear your face off, and you're going to hate me because you did |
| 29 | 00:05:16,860 --> 00:05:24,120 | something I told you not to do. So that's why I'm telling you don't do that. Just observe it. I have no problem seeing out here in front of you like |
| 30 | 00:05:24,120 --> 00:05:36,960 | yesterday walking you through why I don't trade those days. Because yes, you saw me pick one good move. During the move, or the market hours after 930 to your |
| 31 | 00:05:36,960 --> 00:05:48,810 | lunchtime or whatever. One good move. That was it. Everything else wasn't doing anything for me. So it's stuck in the mud. So if I know the market is likely to |
| 32 | 00:05:48,840 --> 00:05:59,550 | consolidate, gyrate around in a small meaningless, aimless range, like a sailboat without a rudder, why would you want to go out there and, and try to |
| 33 | 00:05:59,850 --> 00:06:07,470 | show yourself exactly what you already knew in your heart of hearts, you're not gonna be able to make money in that particular environment or that market |
| 34 | 00:06:07,470 --> 00:06:18,870 | climate. Because it's waiting for what? The news to drop in less than seven minutes from now. And then it creates this excitement this carnival ride. And |
| 35 | 00:06:18,870 --> 00:06:28,200 | traders will be out here waiting to do something, because there's movement on the charts. So like a hungry leopard out there. In the plains, they're gonna be |
| 36 | 00:06:28,200 --> 00:06:37,950 | sitting waiting for movement, and I catch his movement. And then boom, they pounce on it. Well, that's what this event does Non Farm Payroll, NFP, in short, |
| 37 | 00:06:38,580 --> 00:06:47,550 | we call it and I call it not for professionals. Okay. And I wish I could remember who I got that from, because it's not original to me. But it stuck with |
| 38 | 00:06:47,550 --> 00:06:57,030 | me, you know, not for professionals was a wonderful analogy for non farm payrolls. Because while there generally is a lot of excitement that comes out, |
| 39 | 00:06:57,330 --> 00:07:06,990 | during that time at 830, on the first Friday of each month, it's not advised for you as a developing trader, and or someone that's profitable. Why would you |
| 40 | 00:07:06,990 --> 00:07:17,010 | gamble, because that's exactly what this is, it's a gamble. You're asking the market, you're daring the market to take money from you. That's what you're |
| 41 | 00:07:17,010 --> 00:07:26,760 | doing. You're saying, here's, here's the likelihood of me likely losing because it's while it's volatile. And sometimes it's not volatile. Sometimes it's a |
| 42 | 00:07:26,760 --> 00:07:36,930 | lackluster event. And still, you can end up losing money, because it doesn't go where you want to go and just drift sideways or doesn't do anything. And you get |
| 43 | 00:07:36,930 --> 00:07:52,230 | squeezed out of it. And there it is. So there's not what it used to be in the 90s and 80s. It used to be a pretty consistent outcome to non farm payrolls. And |
| 44 | 00:07:52,230 --> 00:08:01,440 | that's why it was a steady draw for people to want to do it. And then as electronic trading became a thing, a lot more volatility came in, which brought |
| 45 | 00:08:01,440 --> 00:08:10,530 | in more what retail interest. This is the day that everybody makes money. No, that's the day everybody loses money. And talking collectively as a retail |
| 46 | 00:08:10,530 --> 00:08:18,150 | trader, new startup, someone with less experience. Now I know you're probably gonna list 10 people that you see on Instagram, or Facebook that show you after |
| 47 | 00:08:18,150 --> 00:08:25,470 | the fact this is what they made with their empty four accounts at that. That's Forget all that. Okay. We're in the really real world here. I'm ICT. And I'm |
| 48 | 00:08:25,470 --> 00:08:36,510 | telling you, I don't know what NFP is going to do. I don't know. So if I don't know, and I don't have a statistical probability that would consistently deliver |
| 49 | 00:08:36,510 --> 00:08:46,440 | an edge. Why on earth would I trade it? That goes against the whole reason why we are doing anything in these marketplaces, right? We're trying to trade in an |
| 50 | 00:08:46,440 --> 00:08:55,980 | environment that is controlling risk, and has the the opportunity and probabilities for us to succeed, not a guarantee because none of this is |
| 51 | 00:08:55,980 --> 00:09:06,360 | guaranteed. So in the event that the market was to really unravel, okay, because we're in that daily range, consolidation, trading range, or whatever I've |
| 52 | 00:09:06,360 --> 00:09:16,710 | mentioned the last time you're on YouTube, until we leave that we're gonna see really just choppy aimless market price action, it's not going to do very much |
| 53 | 00:09:16,710 --> 00:09:26,880 | at all. So again, this is the reason why I don't like trading in January. I wait to the first Tuesday of February let the first month get priced in by everybody |
| 54 | 00:09:26,880 --> 00:09:32,670 | else out there trying to do something you know what their New Year's resolution they're going to make money they're gonna quit their job in 90 days. You know, |
| 55 | 00:09:32,670 --> 00:09:44,790 | all these things, these unrealistic goals and resolutions as a trader and they're all gone to do what converge on a day like today because they have been |
| 56 | 00:09:44,790 --> 00:09:52,140 | trained to see social media influencers tell them I made this much money on I caught the bag on NFP. |
| 57 | 00:09:53,850 --> 00:10:02,040 | And you don't know if those trades are real. You don't know if that's a fake MT four server. You don't know if that is a account that's even the owners. You |
| 58 | 00:10:02,040 --> 00:10:11,700 | didn't see them execute. You didn't see them, show you beforehand why it should do what it should be doing. I've co signed, I've said that I believe that 3014 |
| 59 | 00:10:11,700 --> 00:10:24,780 | will be tagged, I believe also it gets animated for the downside 38 04 and a half, which is Wednesday, December 28 of 2022 is low. Why would I go into that |
| 60 | 00:10:24,780 --> 00:10:35,490 | expectation? Well, I think that it's going to want to try to low traders into thinking, it's going to go down a lot, go down there, and then get them caught |
| 61 | 00:10:35,700 --> 00:10:43,860 | short, and then they'll probably pull it back up in the middle of the consolidation on a daily range, or that trading range on the daily chart. So |
| 62 | 00:10:43,890 --> 00:10:57,480 | it's a matter of whipsaw price action. And it's not all together, you predictable. So I like to have things that are very, very problematic for a |
| 63 | 00:10:57,480 --> 00:11:07,560 | retail trader, but advantageous for me, I want to see where there's an armwrestling match between retail logic and the concepts that I teach you. And |
| 64 | 00:11:07,590 --> 00:11:21,960 | there is no consistent delivery of that, that I have been able to measure and see in Non Farm Payroll. So if you were to guess, poll, or ask or sit down and |
| 65 | 00:11:21,960 --> 00:11:31,620 | interview the most successful financial traders in the world, if they were honest, they would tell you this, this right here, you don't want to do this, |
| 66 | 00:11:31,890 --> 00:11:48,270 | you don't want to trade in the next minute or so. So you want to put your ES H 2023 chart on a five minute chart. And you're about to see the carnage here in |
| 67 | 00:11:48,270 --> 00:12:00,180 | less than 30 seconds. Now, if I were making the market, I would run it up to about 3838. Clear up all the buy side, and then sync it down to 3014 and maybe |
| 68 | 00:12:00,180 --> 00:12:09,780 | rip it to 38 04 even and then that'd be it. And then the rest of the day, you know, do not think this consolidate. I'm not saying that's what's going to |
| 69 | 00:12:09,780 --> 00:12:23,430 | happen. Okay? It's better for it not to happen so that we can see. Okay, now understand why ICT doesn't do that. Alright, we went above to 3040. And then off |
| 70 | 00:12:23,430 --> 00:12:35,130 | to the races it goes, there you go. That's exactly why I don't trade Non Farm Payroll. That was honest, that was 100% real time with you. And because I can't |
| 71 | 00:12:35,160 --> 00:12:44,880 | see what it's likely to do or what it's likely to do with a measurable precision. I can't touch it. I can't, I can't play in it. I can't do anything |
| 72 | 00:12:44,880 --> 00:12:57,810 | with it. So looking at that, why would you be convinced this is a day where you want to be trading. It's like a CPI number for me. And you watch me do it twice. |
| 73 | 00:12:58,470 --> 00:13:06,600 | Give you my opinion. But what I think it might do because I want to cosign I want to show you, this is my opinion, this is not me trading. This is not me |
| 74 | 00:13:06,600 --> 00:13:16,050 | putting on a trade. This is me sharing the logic as to why I avoid doing certain things. Because if you're trying to learn how to do something, and there is a |
| 75 | 00:13:16,590 --> 00:13:24,480 | outcome that's positive, and there's an outcome this negative. If someone knows what they're doing, they should at least know where the likelihood of quicksand, |
| 76 | 00:13:24,930 --> 00:13:35,250 | okay, or things that's going to cause you harm, loss. Where's that likely to manifest itself? If it's something that reoccurs over and over and over again, |
| 77 | 00:13:35,250 --> 00:13:46,800 | there is merit to understanding how you can avoid that. And I've learned very painfully losing lots of money, lots of accounts, okay. This particular day, and |
| 78 | 00:13:46,800 --> 00:13:56,820 | the day leading into it, were the main culprits for it. So when I teach my students, a lot of casual readers or viewers will come to me, and they'll say, |
| 79 | 00:13:56,850 --> 00:14:04,800 | oh, yeah, ICT doesn't trade online for payroll and look at this, I caught this move. Okay. I'm not impressed by that, and doesn't sway me, but unfortunately, |
| 80 | 00:14:05,190 --> 00:14:12,930 | other new startups see those opinions being shared. And they think, Oh, well, I'll adopt that mindset, because they probably watched the videos I don't want |
| 81 | 00:14:12,930 --> 00:14:20,820 | to watch. So if they came to that conclusion, then therefore it must have merit to it. So I'll just take their opinion and adopt it and not be an independent |
| 82 | 00:14:20,820 --> 00:14:31,710 | thinker at all. And look into the logic as to why ICT says this, or doesn't do that. So for the benefit, or those individuals that are just coming to my |
| 83 | 00:14:31,710 --> 00:14:43,290 | channel, you can see with great deal clarity, why I teach in my lectures, year after year after year, and when I'm on Twitter, I tweet all the time. retail |
| 84 | 00:14:43,290 --> 00:14:56,580 | traders will be regretful moments from now when their news driver comes out. Okay, so, I mean, can you honestly afford can you afford in one or two minutes |
| 85 | 00:14:57,240 --> 00:15:07,530 | to be offside on the words on the other side? of the market against where the markets going, can you afford to be in a move like that? That goes against you |
| 86 | 00:15:07,530 --> 00:15:19,560 | that quickly. And your stop loss doesn't protect you like it would normally would, because it's going to get through. I've learned that lesson painfully, |
| 87 | 00:15:19,770 --> 00:15:36,240 | and it's not fun. If you were to pull up a five second chart, that 830 on a five second chart, the high comes in at 3040 and a quarter, then the next opening |
| 88 | 00:15:36,240 --> 00:15:52,110 | candle opens 10 handles hire all in less than a minute, less than 30 seconds. It's snapped there just like that. Now my question to you is, do you really |
| 89 | 00:15:52,110 --> 00:16:04,200 | believe when you see these people out there putting 200 Lots 100, Lots 50 Lots, that they're really going to risk that on their account. And show you after the |
| 90 | 00:16:04,200 --> 00:16:16,980 | fact that this is what they did with their little empty for trade history, that that's that is such a load of crap. Because, frankly, they would be doing it |
| 91 | 00:16:16,980 --> 00:16:23,610 | live. If you were a baller like that you would be doing it live, you would show the world that you were doing that beforehand, explain that you were doing it? |
| 92 | 00:16:23,820 --> 00:16:34,710 | And then do it and be consistent about it. But unfortunately, I've never, I have never seen someone trade non farm payrolls consistently profitable. So again, it |
| 93 | 00:16:34,710 --> 00:16:44,070 | gets back to what's the likelihood of you succeeding in something? Do you want to take the highest degree of difficulty in reaching success? Or do you want to |
| 94 | 00:16:44,070 --> 00:16:53,100 | say you know what, this makes perfect sense as to why we should not be doing it, that we should not be worrying about it. And in fact, have a long weekend, the |
| 95 | 00:16:53,100 --> 00:17:05,130 | first week of every month. On Wednesday, the Wednesday prior to Non Farm Payroll, Non Farm Payroll, you can see it's the first Friday, generally, of |
| 96 | 00:17:05,130 --> 00:17:20,760 | every month. So if you know that that's the likelihood for you to get caught up in something that's not probable the likelihood of you losing money, being |
| 97 | 00:17:20,760 --> 00:17:29,580 | frustrated because it doesn't do what you would expect it to do. There's no rhyme or reason there's logic behind what it's doing. It's causing chaos. It |
| 98 | 00:17:29,580 --> 00:17:46,230 | creates movement, and movement causes what sentiment to shift. So that shift in sentiment, or establishing a bias, then presents at a later time, opportunities |
| 99 | 00:17:46,230 --> 00:17:58,650 | for professionals right now, look what it's done. One quick sudden movement 50 handled or less or less. And now we're just trading right between 3050 and 3040. |
| 100 | 00:18:01,380 --> 00:18:15,990 | So what was the what was the reason to be long? And why would you trust it to be long and not go down? See, it's absolutely 100% Casino time. So to protect my |
| 101 | 00:18:15,990 --> 00:18:28,080 | students, and be 100% transparent, I always tell you, where my weaknesses are, I have no shame in that. You have to be honest with yourself as you're developing. |
| 102 | 00:18:28,380 --> 00:18:39,330 | And if you discover where you have a specific weakness, and if you can't correct it, if you can't combat it, if there's no resolution to it, there's no way of |
| 103 | 00:18:40,020 --> 00:18:52,770 | coping with it. So that way, it doesn't hurt as much. Isn't it better for you to take those precautions? I mean, I don't know where you're from, and what school |
| 104 | 00:18:52,770 --> 00:19:04,650 | of thought you subscribe to. But I believe that this is the hardest business to engage in, because there's so much psychology behind it. And if you go into the |
| 105 | 00:19:04,650 --> 00:19:14,940 | marketplace, expecting it to just lay gold at your feet, because you participated like it's a participate in a participation award. That's |
| 106 | 00:19:14,940 --> 00:19:22,290 | unfortunately the the mindset of this generation, You think just because you open up an account, and you watch people's videos, and you studied that it |
| 107 | 00:19:22,290 --> 00:19:31,530 | should just fall in your lap. And it doesn't work that way, especially on event days like this, or CPI, even people that know how to train and I'm not just |
| 108 | 00:19:31,530 --> 00:19:39,990 | saying it about myself, there's other traders that know how to trade, even trade outside of what I teach. And they still can't make money trading CPI or Non Farm |
| 109 | 00:19:39,990 --> 00:19:40,800 | Payroll Fridays. |
| 110 | 00:19:43,110 --> 00:19:53,310 | They won't be this candid about it, because it would Mar their image. I don't care about image I don't care about it. Because me being viewed or loved or |
| 111 | 00:19:53,310 --> 00:20:02,340 | hated has nothing to do with your bottom line. That's the only thing I care about. Do my students learn properly. am I providing the information honestly, |
| 112 | 00:20:02,370 --> 00:20:12,870 | in that way you can see it. I'm executing based on the logic. And I'm also teaching you exactly when I'm not expecting it to work. It's not the algorithms |
| 113 | 00:20:12,870 --> 00:20:20,100 | broke, it's not the algorithms stopped working, and they're not changing the algorithm. It's just these are days or there's no rhyme or reason for you to be |
| 114 | 00:20:20,160 --> 00:20:31,770 | expecting precision, you just can't, you can't do it. I can probably list two or three times where the market went to a target in 30 years that I had pre |
| 115 | 00:20:32,190 --> 00:20:43,770 | determined before 830 would start. And honestly, I think maybe one of them was made public. And that was it, then you would think if there was something to |
| 116 | 00:20:43,770 --> 00:20:52,740 | this day, that I had an advantage over wouldn't I like to be flexing it and showing you publicly because I would, I would, that's my personality, I would do |
| 117 | 00:20:52,740 --> 00:21:05,610 | it. Just like I showed the precision and everything else, I caught the big move with a lot of ticks or handles earlier in the week. And that's how I train my |
| 118 | 00:21:05,610 --> 00:21:13,800 | students. Look when the moves are going to be logical, and where it's likely to form. And when you get it, you stop you close up shop. And don't worry about the |
| 119 | 00:21:13,800 --> 00:21:24,870 | rest of the week, who let the retail people trade this. Let them wreck themselves, let them get mad. Let him get all worked up in a frenzy. You're on |
| 120 | 00:21:24,990 --> 00:21:35,850 | an extended weekend, every first week of the month. This is your protocol. This is exactly how I teach my students okay. You are welcome to trade on Monday. |
| 121 | 00:21:37,080 --> 00:21:50,340 | You're welcome to trade on Tuesday, London session, New York session pm session in the afternoon for stock indices. This goes for forex and futures. But now |
| 122 | 00:21:50,340 --> 00:22:00,570 | here's where the deviants come into the conversation. I like ICT, I like some of his stuff. But I'm going to cherry pick this part and remove it from me because |
| 123 | 00:22:00,570 --> 00:22:17,040 | I'm going to be the exception of the rule. Don't do this. Here's where you need to listen. You young folks votes, okay. Especially the men do not listen, do not |
| 124 | 00:22:18,000 --> 00:22:30,390 | trade after the morning session in Wednesday. So you're welcome to trade up to 10 o'clock, 11 o'clock, if you're doing stock indices. But 11 o'clock, be done. |
| 125 | 00:22:31,320 --> 00:22:43,140 | Don't touch it in the afternoon. You'll regret it. Don't touch it on Thursday, you'll regret it. And certainly don't trade on Non Farm Payroll Fridays. Because |
| 126 | 00:22:43,140 --> 00:22:50,730 | chances are you're you're probably going to be offside, which means you're on the wrong side of the marketplace, and it's going to rip against you. And your |
| 127 | 00:22:50,730 --> 00:22:59,760 | stop loss won't be respected. How's that possible? I see how I had my stop loss and my broker has to has to get me out of this that no, your broker doesn't have |
| 128 | 00:22:59,760 --> 00:23:13,710 | to do that. Okay, because if your stop loss is for instance, at 3841 and a half, okay, you're getting filled at 3850 or higher. That's slippage Welcome to the |
| 129 | 00:23:13,710 --> 00:23:25,170 | real world. Okay, there's no slippage in demo. In paper trading, there's no slippage. And that's why these guys will put that they have 50 contracts on |
| 130 | 00:23:25,170 --> 00:23:31,020 | moves like this, and they're not going to tell you what's gonna happen before it happens. They're not going to cosign what they believe before it happens. |
| 131 | 00:23:31,170 --> 00:23:43,320 | They're going to show you the history after it happens. That doesn't help you. That's an ego stroking for them. I'm trying to absolutely teach you. Okay, this |
| 132 | 00:23:43,320 --> 00:23:53,010 | is I'm pouring myself out this year. I'm doing everything I can to make you understand why I say the things I say how I do it, why I don't try to do it on |
| 133 | 00:23:53,010 --> 00:24:02,130 | other days. If you want to try to trade like me and learn how to do things that I do with these concepts, it makes sense for you to do what subscribe to |
| 134 | 00:24:02,160 --> 00:24:11,280 | everything. Because every little thing has its place in the way I think about the marketplace. You can't honestly in my opinion, you can't come in and just |
| 135 | 00:24:11,280 --> 00:24:19,710 | cherry pick certain things that you'd like me saying, Oh, that sounds cool. But then when I get to the real meat and potatoes of it all, which is these things |
| 136 | 00:24:19,710 --> 00:24:32,280 | right here. How do you avoid losing money? Nobody writes books about that. Nobody does that. Because it's not exciting. Money management books. They're the |
| 137 | 00:24:32,280 --> 00:24:41,040 | least bought books. I've already suggested that Ralph Vince, you know, and Ryan Jones. Those two fellas, you're outside of what I teach about it, which is |
| 138 | 00:24:41,040 --> 00:24:49,410 | really just a simplification, if you will, of what they talk about in their books because they're very boring. They're expensive, the most people won't want |
| 139 | 00:24:49,410 --> 00:24:59,250 | to spend that much money on a money management book. Okay, I understand that. I didn't want to do that either. When I was young, I bought all the books that |
| 140 | 00:24:59,280 --> 00:25:07,320 | gave me the indicators, because I was looking for the Holy Grail in the settings. Tell me what the indicators are mostly on my chart, what the settings |
| 141 | 00:25:07,320 --> 00:25:15,480 | are going to be. And then I'll know how to trade and that doesn't work. That does not work. Because if it did, nobody would lose money when they first start |
| 142 | 00:25:15,480 --> 00:25:25,980 | trading, because everybody does what they put indicators on a chart. And unless you know what price is likely to do, how's it going to behave? That's narrative |
| 143 | 00:25:26,700 --> 00:25:36,840 | behavior? is near and is narrative? How's it likely to do certain things? Why should it do those certain things? And then when it does those certain things, |
| 144 | 00:25:37,020 --> 00:25:52,320 | what setups, what patterns, what concepts or conceptual theory would be applicable to finding entry in that narrative, or behavior. And that's a huge |
| 145 | 00:25:52,320 --> 00:26:09,990 | chasm of understanding that 99.999% of educators, authors and pseudo traders don't tackle, because they don't know it. If you really, if you really want to |
| 146 | 00:26:09,990 --> 00:26:18,960 | teach somebody and communicate something to them, you're going to show them, both sides of the coin, you're going to show this is the strengths and the |
| 147 | 00:26:18,960 --> 00:26:26,940 | advantages. And this is where the weaknesses are. And here's the advantage of knowing how to discern who's a real mentor who's someone who's been really doing |
| 148 | 00:26:26,940 --> 00:26:35,520 | it or not, they're going to sit down and honestly tell you, this is where you're going to have difficulty. This is where it's going to be problematic for you. |
| 149 | 00:26:36,390 --> 00:26:46,290 | And why would they want to do that? Number one, they want you to succeed. I want you to succeed. I want you to be doing well at this. I don't want to see you |
| 150 | 00:26:46,410 --> 00:26:54,420 | lose, I don't want to see you suffer. I don't want to see you have monetary loss. That's why I teach in a demo. That's the reason why I show my examples in |
| 151 | 00:26:54,420 --> 00:27:02,400 | a demo. I mean, you saw live accounts this year, but it's not last year. But the irrelevant when I show you executions using the techniques and concepts that I |
| 152 | 00:27:02,400 --> 00:27:15,360 | teach I'm doing in a demo. Because if you see your teacher out here with almost 435, or whatever it is 1000 people watching me. I'm still wrapping paper |
| 153 | 00:27:15,360 --> 00:27:25,680 | trading. And you see these young men come in there oh, to paper trade. Haha. Yes, it is for compliance reasons. And I'm not a licensed trade advisor on |
| 154 | 00:27:25,680 --> 00:27:34,470 | teaching you things that I believe are going to repeat in the future. That's my opinion. I want you to challenge that opinion. As a viewer, I want you to go |
| 155 | 00:27:34,470 --> 00:27:44,250 | into your charts and see if the things I'm teaching you are really happening. Is it an advantage? And don't go into it with for a weekend or a month and say |
| 156 | 00:27:44,250 --> 00:27:52,320 | okay, I watched some videos, I scribbled a couple of catchphrases that he likes to say, and say I took notes and I did the work. That's not the work. The work |
| 157 | 00:27:52,320 --> 00:28:02,280 | was like yesterday, where I'm showing you where things will look like a setup. And even I would take a trade if it was another day, other than the day's going |
| 158 | 00:28:02,280 --> 00:28:11,550 | into Non Farm Payroll and telling you upfront, I'm going to probably get this wrong, don't follow this as a trade. And you saw it. The market did not perform |
| 159 | 00:28:11,550 --> 00:28:28,740 | like I wanted to do in only one good setup. That's it. That's, that's the line that you need to know. Where not to cross. Don't don't go into the Badlands. |
| 160 | 00:28:28,770 --> 00:28:39,840 | Okay. In the marketplace. There's these areas, there's days, there's days, the circumstances where you know, that you probably are not going to succeed, but |
| 161 | 00:28:39,840 --> 00:28:53,400 | you just have to do it. Why? Because your social equity curve needs a new equity high with cloud. That's why you're doing it. You want to be able to do well. So |
| 162 | 00:28:53,400 --> 00:29:06,150 | you can go out one, Facebook, on Instagram, on YouTube, on Twitter, tick tock. You name it wherever it is that you're doing social media gatherings. And you |
| 163 | 00:29:06,150 --> 00:29:22,050 | want to show your peers and your viewers that you were an expert today. You don't want to try to do that on this day. Okay? You don't because the real |
| 164 | 00:29:22,050 --> 00:29:32,670 | experts still can't do it either. Not consistently. And those real experts, the folks that have been doing a lot longer than these 20 year olds that just |
| 165 | 00:29:32,670 --> 00:29:38,640 | started discovering what a divergence is. What a candlestick is. |
| 166 | 00:29:40,650 --> 00:29:50,160 | You want to listen to the old hats because we've been here for a long time and we've seen a lot of things and unfortunately, we can be stuffy and old and fuddy |
| 167 | 00:29:50,160 --> 00:30:02,250 | duddy and maybe not hip to the to new things. Okay, the new lingo. But there's wisdom in people that have been doing That's not just me. And I love listening |
| 168 | 00:30:02,250 --> 00:30:12,390 | to older traders. I love listening to their stories. I love listening to the logic and the discoveries they've had to find out through pain and loss, and how |
| 169 | 00:30:12,390 --> 00:30:22,080 | long it took them. To do that. I tried to beat this day. It was like a thing for me, like I had to crack it. And I'm honestly telling you, I was defeated by it. |
| 170 | 00:30:23,070 --> 00:30:36,720 | I lost trying to pursue figuring out Non Farm Payroll. And finally, when at my wit's end, I said, the hell with this? I can't, I can't do it. So to avoid that |
| 171 | 00:30:36,720 --> 00:30:49,050 | pain of obsessive compulsive disorder that will flare up all the time. When those days would come each month, I would do nothing. I'll do my hobbies, I |
| 172 | 00:30:49,050 --> 00:30:58,110 | would do whatever else I was doing other than trading, because I knew impulsively I would do what? Think I see something and trade it and then regret |
| 173 | 00:30:58,110 --> 00:31:16,110 | it. How do you avoid you avoid altogether you avoid it. There's no secret to it. If it hurts, it causes you harm. Don't do it again. As simple as that. I don't |
| 174 | 00:31:16,110 --> 00:31:25,470 | care how many people around the world can show you after the fact what they supposedly did. Nobody's making a career trading on Non Farm Payroll Fridays, |
| 175 | 00:31:25,500 --> 00:31:43,170 | okay. I'll say it again. Nobody on this spinning rock is making a career. Trading Non Farm Payroll. There's all kinds of people out there writing books on |
| 176 | 00:31:43,170 --> 00:31:51,420 | how to trade Non Farm Payroll, there's all kinds of people have YouTube videos, how to trade Non Farm Payroll. And they're making money that way. They're, |
| 177 | 00:31:51,750 --> 00:32:02,130 | they're telling you, this is where the gold lies. This is where it lays in the ground. Here's where you dig it up. And you're gonna do what you're gonna buy |
| 178 | 00:32:02,130 --> 00:32:11,850 | their picks at their pickaxe and their shovels from there, where's their insights, and they're the only one making money. Nobody's finding gold out here. |
| 179 | 00:32:12,690 --> 00:32:20,070 | It's fool's gold. You think because it moves around, there's opportunity for you to make money. And when you go in there, with your pickaxe and your shovel, you |
| 180 | 00:32:20,070 --> 00:32:30,330 | just bought money. You spent money on listening to these other people who haven't made money doing it can't consistently show that they do it. They're |
| 181 | 00:32:30,330 --> 00:32:42,510 | only going to show you a book example in hindsight. That's it. That's all you're going to see your that's all you're going to see nonfarm payroll, those, we'll |
| 182 | 00:32:42,510 --> 00:32:56,700 | just call it 30 minutes. Okay, from 830 to nine o'clock. That is such a gamble. It's unbelievable. But because of the the velocity in the ferocious delivery of |
| 183 | 00:32:56,700 --> 00:33:05,460 | price when it's real quick and sudden, that's like, Wow, if I could have done that long, if it goes up, or if I could have been short break before it went |
| 184 | 00:33:05,460 --> 00:33:15,180 | down like that, me and I could make so much money. And what are you doing? Think for a second, if you're feeling that way, okay. And some of you probably looked |
| 185 | 00:33:15,180 --> 00:33:20,550 | at this this morning and said, he got it wrong. But you know, I could have bought that. And that would have been so much more money, or I would have done |
| 186 | 00:33:20,550 --> 00:33:29,400 | this or done that. Or maybe some of you listened to this and said, watch this. I'm going to demonstrate and fade ICT. And look, I did this and you're going to |
| 187 | 00:33:29,400 --> 00:33:34,440 | come up with all kinds of reasons why after the fact you don't you're still looking through your charts, trying to find some kind of trendline where it |
| 188 | 00:33:34,440 --> 00:33:50,430 | lined up board controls. But you're not going to be consistently able to follow this and make money. But why are you why are you trying to push your career into |
| 189 | 00:33:50,640 --> 00:34:06,060 | one small day? One small micro fluctuation. I don't care how big nonfarm payroll ever is, forever has been forever, we'll be in one event. That does not convince |
| 190 | 00:34:06,060 --> 00:34:14,340 | me that that's the only thing I need to worry about for my career. And see some of you are gonna be thinking, Yeah, but we need movement to make money. And you |
| 191 | 00:34:14,340 --> 00:34:23,670 | can hear the infancy when people take this or say it in their videos, or read it in their books. You need to have movement and Non Farm Payroll provides that |
| 192 | 00:34:23,670 --> 00:34:32,370 | movement, it moves, just like CPI does, it will move you out of the industry. It will move you out of the brokerage firm that you have money deposit and right |
| 193 | 00:34:32,370 --> 00:34:40,170 | now, it won't be there. That's the movement that you're gonna have. Okay, that's the movement that's going to be the result because you're going to try to do |
| 194 | 00:34:40,170 --> 00:34:58,920 | something and it's going to clean your clock. Done dusted it over. Thank you for playing. Good day. There is no participation award except for regret. I wish I |
| 195 | 00:34:58,920 --> 00:35:08,790 | wish I would just be able to see this. And people understand. Oh, yeah, this is problematic. And I know some of you want to crack it because you said, you hear |
| 196 | 00:35:08,790 --> 00:35:16,560 | me say I can't, because you heard me talk about many times how Larry Williams wanted to know how he wants to be a buyer below the opening price on big update. |
| 197 | 00:35:16,740 --> 00:35:26,220 | Well, I figured that out. I've made it public knowledge, it's power three, and you have to look at other things, and it's there. But I failed at nonfarm |
| 198 | 00:35:26,220 --> 00:35:41,010 | payroll. I couldn't do it. I couldn't figure it out. And I spent decades doing it. Trying to study and trying to optimize certain things to make it where it |
| 199 | 00:35:41,010 --> 00:35:53,280 | would work. Nope. The only thing that becomes this form fitting. Because it's a random event, you have no idea. You have no idea what the markets gonna do. On |
| 200 | 00:35:53,280 --> 00:36:02,850 | this day here, this is me rephrase that FOMC when rate announcements come out, not so much the minutes when the minutes, FOMC minutes. That's like a little |
| 201 | 00:36:02,850 --> 00:36:13,290 | nuisance type move. Okay, that's not the same thing as a rate announcement by FOMC. Okay, so when the Fed comes out, that event is two stages. Whenever |
| 202 | 00:36:13,290 --> 00:36:20,280 | there's a rate announcement being released at two o'clock in the afternoon in New York session, okay, there is two moves that take place, the first one's the |
| 203 | 00:36:20,280 --> 00:36:32,850 | fake one. And then the real move is the other direction. And I've taught that already. The FOMC minutes, just create a small, little adoration and boom, it's |
| 204 | 00:36:32,850 --> 00:36:48,480 | just a short little fizzle, and it's done. CPI is a bullet to your forehead. Okay, you have no opportunity. It's Russian roulette. And a gun that has six |
| 205 | 00:36:48,480 --> 00:36:56,280 | chambers. And there's only one empty chamber, that's CPI, that's trading with CPI, you want to spin that chamber, click it, and put it to your forehead and |
| 206 | 00:36:56,280 --> 00:37:05,580 | you think that you're going to do well with that. That's why I don't do it. That's why I don't touch it. So those events, those are the very things and Non |
| 207 | 00:37:05,580 --> 00:37:18,180 | Farm Payroll, I don't have an advantage. And I cannot I absolutely cannot know with a surety on those high impact news drivers CPI rate announcements by the |
| 208 | 00:37:18,180 --> 00:37:27,900 | Fed, or any other country when they're doing their interest rates. So like if you're trading currencies, and you're in the euro zone, you know, the country |
| 209 | 00:37:27,900 --> 00:37:36,360 | comes out says oh, you know, we're gonna do this with our interest rates, or Japan comes out and says, you know, we're going to do something with our |
| 210 | 00:37:36,690 --> 00:37:44,910 | interest rate as well. You don't know what's going to happen and what I mean by that. Oh, yes, you can ICT you can follow the fundamentals and the fundamentals |
| 211 | 00:37:44,910 --> 00:37:55,680 | tell you all that, okay, go on there and trade intraday, based on your fundamentals. On a day like this. It'll give you another office with something |
| 212 | 00:37:55,680 --> 00:38:10,380 | packed in it. You don't want to do that with these days. These are days that look like opportunity, but they're cleverly disguised impossibilities. I know |
| 213 | 00:38:10,380 --> 00:38:17,760 | that sounds like a Debbie Downer remark like, oh, you know, I like listening to you. You always encouraged me. But this sounds like you know, a defeated ICT. |
| 214 | 00:38:17,760 --> 00:38:28,680 | It's not a defeated ICT. It's a wise ICT. I've learned this painfully. And some of you don't want to learn this lesson. Some of you want to ignore it, you want |
| 215 | 00:38:28,680 --> 00:38:34,920 | to just block that out. Now just tell me when it works really good. I want to know that give me the good order blocks, the good fair value gaps, that mean the |
| 216 | 00:38:34,920 --> 00:38:42,120 | ones that stay open. But you don't want to listen to stuff like this. And this is the stuff that keeps you in the game. Because you're going to do it wrong. |
| 217 | 00:38:43,260 --> 00:38:52,560 | You're not going to listen to these lectures in these discussions. And know that these are the problem areas in the marketplace. And they're going to hurt you. |
| 218 | 00:38:54,000 --> 00:39:04,080 | And you won't be in the game long enough to whether the normal ebb and flow of ups and downs in your equity curve. Because you're starting out and you want to |
| 219 | 00:39:04,080 --> 00:39:15,060 | be a rocket. Here you are on a launching pad, you just started learning ICT concepts, or whatever, maybe some of you are going to leave what I'm teaching, |
| 220 | 00:39:15,090 --> 00:39:21,780 | that's fine. Go ahead. I wish you luck anyway. And you're going to do something else. But you're going to have that same expectation. You're now a rocket on a |
| 221 | 00:39:21,780 --> 00:39:29,820 | launching pad. And now you because you sat down and you decided to give your time and attention to something else to learn how to do and trading. It owes you |
| 222 | 00:39:29,820 --> 00:39:39,390 | something. The market owes you something because you've studied you've watched some things. So you're entitled to what you're entitled to shit. |
| 223 | 00:39:40,740 --> 00:39:52,050 | And a lot of you won't like the taste of it. Because it's reality. And you're gonna see on these days, you can't make money. You can't not consistently not |
| 224 | 00:39:52,050 --> 00:40:04,470 | with any edge that's measurable or repeating. You will lose and because you will blow your account You're gonna say everything you learned, which had no place in |
| 225 | 00:40:04,470 --> 00:40:15,510 | the day like today was fake, flawed, it doesn't work, all the logic doesn't work. And that's frustration. That's all that is. That's not true. That's not |
| 226 | 00:40:17,280 --> 00:40:26,670 | application of the concepts in the right conditions. Because if you read the fine print with ICT, it says, we don't trade on these days, because we don't |
| 227 | 00:40:26,670 --> 00:40:38,520 | expect the precision to be there. But you see folks out there, looking forward or walks, and complaining about how this doesn't work. Because you're trying to |
| 228 | 00:40:38,520 --> 00:40:53,610 | do what you're trying to make, you're trying to make a wedding cake out of mud. Think about that, like you're trying to take something out of a environment, |
| 229 | 00:40:54,660 --> 00:41:08,370 | like swamp water, you want to be even that, because that's what you're trying to do. You're trying to do something with something that is not likely to even come |
| 230 | 00:41:08,370 --> 00:41:21,030 | close to the result you're trying to get. Because the environment is not conducive for you to be successful. It's not designed for that. So if you can be |
| 231 | 00:41:21,030 --> 00:41:37,770 | mature enough as a adult, and hopefully we're all adults here. You have to respect the measure of underlying risk. And one of the best tenants to a |
| 232 | 00:41:37,770 --> 00:41:48,960 | successful consistently profitable trader is they are none number one, respecting of risk, knowing that the first 10 to successful trading is |
| 233 | 00:41:49,110 --> 00:42:00,270 | preserving capital, not how much you can make, how much can I lose on this trade? And what can I afford to lose? And don't say, because it's 2%, I can |
| 234 | 00:42:00,270 --> 00:42:09,540 | afford to lose that because 2% For some of you, is too much emotionally and psychologically. You're looking at these funded accounts, you're thinking, I'm |
| 235 | 00:42:09,540 --> 00:42:18,570 | gonna get me a 300,000 IRA account, I'm gonna roll up all these accounts, I'm gonna get a million dollars funded. Okay? So you're saying that you're gonna be |
| 236 | 00:42:18,570 --> 00:42:32,190 | comfortable with losing 20,000? No, you're not. You're not, you're going to lose your mind. Okay. So there's two stages to understanding money management and |
| 237 | 00:42:32,190 --> 00:42:43,920 | risk management, you have to know what your account can afford to take as a law. And then you have to test that theory, psychologically and emotionally, within |
| 238 | 00:42:43,920 --> 00:42:54,870 | yourself. And many of my students and other people out there have done this, too. They have discovered that, hey, you know, what, 2%, I can't do that. That's |
| 239 | 00:42:54,870 --> 00:43:10,560 | too much. And they go down to a quarter of 1%. What you can't make money, look, a quarter 1%. You don't need a job. Because if you can consistently able to take |
| 240 | 00:43:10,560 --> 00:43:25,050 | the quarter of 1% risk, and you're trading with five times that. Do the math on any of those funded accounts. See, that's the problem. With habit your way |
| 241 | 00:43:25,050 --> 00:43:33,690 | mentorships and dollar menu mentors, they go out there and they show you this stuff that they're not doing. They'll show you stuff. Oh, well, you can take |
| 242 | 00:43:33,690 --> 00:43:40,200 | this order book, here's a trade and you listen to these cats. And say, Yeah, I took a tray. I think I took a trade I think I got in here. I don't know where |
| 243 | 00:43:40,740 --> 00:43:51,450 | they're from. But if they took the trade, all they have to do is show exactly where they got in it. That's how you know you're listening to a liar. With me, |
| 244 | 00:43:51,480 --> 00:43:58,080 | you see my executions, you see exactly where I'm getting in, you see the price, you see my stock, you see what I'm managing, and you see where I'm expecting it |
| 245 | 00:43:58,080 --> 00:44:06,000 | to go. And there it is. That's someone that's been doing it, and has been doing it for a long, long time. It has no problems showing you this is what it looks |
| 246 | 00:44:06,000 --> 00:44:16,020 | like. But you can't take risk management and money management and just say, Okay, I learned this from that video. I learned this from this person. They said |
| 247 | 00:44:16,020 --> 00:44:28,830 | this is what they do. So I mean, it's applicable to me. It's not, it's not. So my advice for you if you're trying to do these funded accounts this year. Or |
| 248 | 00:44:28,830 --> 00:44:41,490 | maybe, you know, you probably already done this and you know exactly where I'm going with it. Once you get funded, do the least. Because especially if you're |
| 249 | 00:44:41,490 --> 00:44:52,440 | new, you don't know how you're going to be impulsive. On days like this, and other days that you didn't check the economic calendar and other central tenants |
| 250 | 00:44:52,440 --> 00:45:04,320 | is someone that's a professional. They will not touch the market without knowing what the economic calendar is. You Yep, that is the number one tenant to knowing |
| 251 | 00:45:04,320 --> 00:45:19,260 | what not to do. Think about when we get into wintertime, and you see it's cloudy and such weather drops real sudden, and you're in areas where what snow likely |
| 252 | 00:45:19,260 --> 00:45:30,690 | happened, what do you do, and you see expectance. Now the old hats, we can smell it, just like the rain too. In the warmer months, you can smell it coming. We've |
| 253 | 00:45:30,690 --> 00:45:38,880 | been around long enough. But young folks, they only see in engaged with what's right in front of their face. At the moment. Right now they have short |
| 254 | 00:45:38,880 --> 00:45:52,290 | sightedness, they only see right in front of them. And you have to make sure that you're planning ahead, you got to project the likely scenario for you to |
| 255 | 00:45:52,290 --> 00:46:02,760 | succeed, but also compensate along the way, for detours that's going to be required that you didn't foresee. And some of those are going to be |
| 256 | 00:46:02,760 --> 00:46:13,500 | uncomfortable, because you want to be like your teachers, your heroes. You want to do exactly what they did. And I'm telling you, you're not gonna be able to do |
| 257 | 00:46:13,500 --> 00:46:22,140 | what I'm doing. Because you don't know what's going on in my brain. At the time, when I'm looking at price. None of my students can replicate what I'm doing. |
| 258 | 00:46:24,210 --> 00:46:31,950 | They can trade with my concepts and be profitable, but they can't do exactly what you see me doing. At the moment I'm doing it exactly why I'm doing why am I |
| 259 | 00:46:31,950 --> 00:46:44,010 | taking a partial at that price? Why did I wait for this to do that? So you can just read it in the comment sections of the Twitter and or on the videos? How |
| 260 | 00:46:44,010 --> 00:46:56,670 | did he know and some of these people are students with me for a long time. And they know my stuff. But because I know what I'm trying to capture in the |
| 261 | 00:46:56,670 --> 00:47:06,060 | marketplace. And it might evolve. As the market starts moving. I'm thinking okay, I didn't expect that to present another opportunity to go more more time |
| 262 | 00:47:06,060 --> 00:47:15,390 | in. So now I add more to it there when I didn't expect to see it when the trade first started. So you're not going to know what's inside my internal dialogue |
| 263 | 00:47:15,750 --> 00:47:27,300 | that's going on constantly. And all that's changing and evolving, every time a one minute candles painting. And that's one of the things you're going to |
| 264 | 00:47:27,300 --> 00:47:36,060 | discover when February when we start doing live sessions. As I'm talking about the one in five minute candles, the weak individuals here that don't want to |
| 265 | 00:47:36,060 --> 00:47:43,350 | learn how to do this, the only one signals, they want to want to learn a bias so they can go and push their buttons and hopefully get something correct to make |
| 266 | 00:47:43,350 --> 00:47:54,780 | some money, you're going to fail. Because you're going to miss the opportunity of knowing what it looks like to read every single candle from somebody that |
| 267 | 00:47:54,780 --> 00:48:08,550 | knows how to do it. And when to not expect it to work. Because you have to know where is it likely that you're going to have your face torn off. You're going to |
| 268 | 00:48:08,550 --> 00:48:18,330 | lose a limb blown account, get mad because you did something silly and it was a small loss. And you go back and try to get it back. And that becomes another |
| 269 | 00:48:18,330 --> 00:48:30,870 | loss and you do what you push and you push and you push until you don't have your account anymore. All of that is absolutely avoidable. How's it avoidable by |
| 270 | 00:48:30,870 --> 00:48:40,740 | knowing what I'm talking about right here. I'm telling you, these are the very days that starts that whole loser cycle where you get your account taken from |
| 271 | 00:48:40,740 --> 00:48:52,920 | you if you're funded, or you blow it if it's really yours, your funds your money money, it's gone because you lost it. You passed away doing stupid stuff. Not |
| 272 | 00:48:54,090 --> 00:49:08,190 | sticking to number one rule, preserve capital. How do you preserve capital, know where it's likely to cause you loss? If there is no advantage if there is no |
| 273 | 00:49:09,240 --> 00:49:22,260 | odds in your favor, it's one sided like so overly in your favor to do well. And some of you are so new you don't know what that means. That's what I classify as |
| 274 | 00:49:22,260 --> 00:49:40,380 | a low resistance liquidity run. You can't frame that. On days like this 30 years I've only had a handful a handful of opportunities where it panned out for me I |
| 275 | 00:49:40,380 --> 00:49:41,190 | was correct |
| 276 | 00:49:44,790 --> 00:49:57,180 | I honestly I really considered writing five books. The fifth book is everything not to do in trading. Nobody's buying that book. I mean, they probably will |
| 277 | 00:49:57,180 --> 00:50:10,200 | because a morbid curiosity and my name is attached to it but think about it, you wouldn't likely see that as a New York bestseller. But I wish I had this. Before |
| 278 | 00:50:10,200 --> 00:50:22,770 | I opened up my first account with Fox investments as a trader in 1992, I wish I would have known these things. This is better than teach me the right order |
| 279 | 00:50:22,770 --> 00:50:33,270 | block. This is better than tell me how to get in, teach me how to keep you not keep it how to know when a fair value gap or an imbalance stays open. See, |
| 280 | 00:50:34,320 --> 00:50:46,140 | you're all caught up with a sleight of hand. That's all it is. You're caught up with the badass woman of oh, look at this. Look at this trick. I want to be able |
| 281 | 00:50:46,140 --> 00:50:56,640 | to do that in front of other people, because then I'll get clout. Cloud is shit. You want success. You want to be able to carve out your own paycheck and not |
| 282 | 00:50:56,640 --> 00:51:06,480 | need anybody to tell you what is likely to happen next. And you want to trust that you can do what keep your account in your hands. Not blow it not go into |
| 283 | 00:51:06,480 --> 00:51:17,730 | severe drawdown, you're going to have drawdown. But you need to be able to know where those opportunities are likely to occur. And if you don't want to put your |
| 284 | 00:51:17,730 --> 00:51:27,120 | time and effort into knowing that, here's a promise that you can Guaran damn tee and take it to the bank. You will blow your accounts this year, you will fail |
| 285 | 00:51:27,150 --> 00:51:42,120 | you will never ever be profitable unless you do these things identify where it's likely to cause you loss and consistently unlikely to present opportunity for |
| 286 | 00:51:42,120 --> 00:51:52,890 | you to be profitable. Why wouldn't you want to listen to sound advice like that? It defies all logic when I see young folks, even older folks that have been |
| 287 | 00:51:52,890 --> 00:52:00,570 | trading for a while but I've had an opportunity where I did this one time, one time, one time you did something, and you're going to make that it's going to |
| 288 | 00:52:00,570 --> 00:52:08,820 | have to be always for you to be in there trying to do Non Farm Payroll or trying to guess what CPI is going to do are trying to guess what the reaction in the |
| 289 | 00:52:08,820 --> 00:52:15,390 | marketplace is going to be when a rate announcement? How many times have you seen the rate announcement come out as expected in the market do what you |
| 290 | 00:52:15,420 --> 00:52:24,990 | thought it would do. But really not it does the opposite? And they'll say Oh, well the market is priced in? They didn't say they priced it in before that rate |
| 291 | 00:52:24,990 --> 00:52:31,500 | announcement. Where's the news? People in it talking heads? And the financial experts have said no, don't trust anything the markets already priced in this. |
| 292 | 00:52:31,500 --> 00:52:40,890 | It's going to do that they don't do that. They wait until after the effect of the marketplace repricing on this stuff. And then they'll say this is what this |
| 293 | 00:52:41,550 --> 00:52:48,960 | you know, everybody knew that. Right? Nobody knew that. I'm telling you. If anybody was going to know this stuff, folks, it would be me. I'm telling you, |
| 294 | 00:52:49,020 --> 00:53:05,130 | honestly, I have no advantage on these days. None. I have no advantage. Absolutely none. Come on. I mean, if I sit down and tell you in a video, or if I |
| 295 | 00:53:05,130 --> 00:53:15,570 | wrote a chapter in a book, and said, This is the secret and being 90% accurate. That's the, that's the chapter you're, you're all putting the potato chips down, |
| 296 | 00:53:15,690 --> 00:53:22,200 | you're telling your wife stop talking to you, you're going to physically go out and go sit in your car and take yourself away from every distraction, because |
| 297 | 00:53:22,200 --> 00:53:34,260 | you want to know what that chapter says. But a chapter like this, or a lecture or a video or a Twitter space, about these types of things. I mean, come on, |
| 298 | 00:53:34,620 --> 00:53:46,680 | nobody wants to hear this. Yet nobody that wants to lose their account. That's never really traded with real money, had loss, blown several accounts and |
| 299 | 00:53:47,130 --> 00:53:55,170 | figured it out the hate and this is a problem. Because you can have all the resolutions in the world. You can write down a goal for yourself for this year, |
| 300 | 00:53:55,230 --> 00:54:06,630 | all you want. You can be encouraged by everything else I'm saying. And you can learn some really good stuff this year. And it all works. But guess what? You're |
| 301 | 00:54:06,630 --> 00:54:24,180 | gonna lose your ass when you don't know this. Because this right here is what takes every body out. Not knowing what's going to hurt them. You can't just keep |
| 302 | 00:54:24,180 --> 00:54:37,500 | pushing and pushing did for the purpose of just trying to make money and not identify the necessity for a shield. You're going out there with your spear |
| 303 | 00:54:37,500 --> 00:54:47,550 | you're going out there with your sword, okay. You have to have some kind of protection, your shield. What is that wisdom and money management. You have to |
| 304 | 00:54:47,550 --> 00:54:54,510 | have most wisdom before you can even implement money management. So what's the purpose of the money management you have to know? Where's it likely for me to |
| 305 | 00:54:54,510 --> 00:55:04,620 | fail? And some of you especially young men want to ignore that because you view that as weakness as a young man, that's somehow attacking your manhood, your |
| 306 | 00:55:04,620 --> 00:55:23,070 | masculinity, your identity. No. Identifying weaknesses and knowing how to navigate them. That's strength. That's maturity that is mastery. I mean, if you |
| 307 | 00:55:23,070 --> 00:55:35,130 | want to dabble, you know, like going to a casino and playing the one armed bandits. You want to treat trading like that, by all means be my guest. I don't |
| 308 | 00:55:35,130 --> 00:55:44,070 | want students to think that way. I wanted to understand, this is a area in time where probabilities are so shifted against me, I have no business going in |
| 309 | 00:55:44,070 --> 00:55:50,850 | there. Regardless of what I see in the chart period and a story it's done. It's not up for discussion. It's not up for debate. It's what it is. It's the gospel, |
| 310 | 00:55:50,850 --> 00:56:05,610 | I live by it. But that's not exciting. That doesn't make me stand out in the crowd on social media. You're damn right, it doesn't. And that's exactly what |
| 311 | 00:56:05,610 --> 00:56:14,040 | you're supposed to be doing. Because everybody else out there on social media that's trying really hard to be something they're not. They're floundering this |
| 312 | 00:56:14,040 --> 00:56:25,260 | year already. They're floundering, failing, falling on their face. All this suppose that they have the ties technology, this nothing. And no, they can't be |
| 313 | 00:56:25,260 --> 00:56:36,210 | profitable, they're falling on their face, they're things don't work. Because they don't know this rule, either. The markets are algorithmic. And if I can't |
| 314 | 00:56:36,210 --> 00:56:46,560 | find a plugin for when the algorithm is likely to do certain things, on certain days, guess what? There's no advantage there. You're gonna get chopped up |
| 315 | 00:56:46,590 --> 00:56:58,350 | grinded down to bits. And in those instances, Human nature being what it is, you're going to do what I didn't do it hard enough. I didn't trade hard enough, |
| 316 | 00:56:58,380 --> 00:57:05,250 | I didn't trust it. I didn't trust my edge. I didn't trust my system, I gotta keep going back in, I gotta keep pushing the button, I gotta keep going and |
| 317 | 00:57:05,250 --> 00:57:12,780 | taking my signals, I got to take my signal the next time, even though this is a loss. The book says the guy on Twitter says I've got 20 years trading |
| 318 | 00:57:12,780 --> 00:57:18,900 | experience. It used to be a prop firm. I never really showed anybody real track record, I haven't really been called markets beforehand. But I'm going to tell |
| 319 | 00:57:18,900 --> 00:57:21,840 | you that you got to keep pushing your edge, and then you blow your account |
| 320 | 00:57:31,290 --> 00:57:39,780 | you don't want that uncomfortable feeling of knowing that you shouldn't have been doing it and you knew it every time you push the button. You knew each |
| 321 | 00:57:39,780 --> 00:57:49,320 | time. I shouldn't do this. But dammit, I gotta do something. I can't go home feeling like this. I knew I shouldn't have traded this day, I gotta find a way |
| 322 | 00:57:49,320 --> 00:57:55,320 | to get it back. If I get it back, I'll learn my lesson. I won't do it again. That's great a bullshit. |
| 323 | 00:58:01,320 --> 00:58:09,960 | Folks, this is the books that you want. This is the chapters you want to read. These are the life lessons as a trader that you want to understand and apply to |
| 324 | 00:58:09,960 --> 00:58:23,070 | yourself. And I know, I know. They're not fun. It's not pleasurable, it doesn't give you a dopamine hit. It doesn't make you feel empowered. But it should. |
| 325 | 00:58:25,410 --> 00:58:35,370 | That's the perception of someone that's going through this stuff. I can look back and hear myself talking right now and say, if somebody would have just |
| 326 | 00:58:35,370 --> 00:58:48,210 | simply sat my young ass down, slapped me upside the head and said, Listen, Huddleston, listen, you are not going to be successful. Because you're not |
| 327 | 00:58:48,210 --> 00:58:55,560 | paying attention to this, you'll find trade setups, they're going to pay you your account will grow. And where you're gonna get knocked down is because |
| 328 | 00:58:55,560 --> 00:59:05,010 | you're not seeing this. And you're gonna fall victim to this. So this is the most important thing right now. You're thinking about what indicator settings |
| 329 | 00:59:05,220 --> 00:59:16,650 | and what timeframe. That's stupid. Because if you understand where the opportunities lie, for high probability, low resistance, some of you new are |
| 330 | 00:59:16,650 --> 00:59:25,350 | thinking. So your bear, you just want to trade resistance, no low resistance liquidity runs is when the market just freely just runs right quickly to a poor |
| 331 | 00:59:25,350 --> 00:59:33,510 | liquidity or an inefficiency. And it's so one sided and easy to see before it happens. It's quick, it delivers right away once you get in and says Nice. |
| 332 | 00:59:33,990 --> 00:59:42,930 | That's how I teach my students how to trade. Are they all like that? No. But that's the environment that we're trading in. But we tried to recognize areas |
| 333 | 00:59:42,930 --> 00:59:58,620 | that are problematic in creating those very instances for low resistance coherent signatures. So it's a hard thing for a new viewer or listener or |
| 334 | 00:59:58,620 --> 01:00:09,840 | student of me To digest this type of discussion, because you want and I understand this is exactly how I wasn't everybody's the same way. When you sit |
| 335 | 01:00:09,840 --> 01:00:17,430 | down with someone, and they're supposedly going to teach you or illustrate or demonstrate prowess in the marketplace where they can buy and sell and profit, |
| 336 | 01:00:18,780 --> 01:00:34,590 | you expect a gimmick, you expect some trick, or technique, or concept or indicator or pattern, or service or product, to put your hands all over, handle |
| 337 | 01:00:34,590 --> 01:00:45,990 | it and put it to work using it right away, or go through the process of looking for it. Okay, unfortunately, this skill here is something that you have to carve |
| 338 | 01:00:45,990 --> 01:00:58,290 | out through pain and suffering. And time. It's expensive, this lesson is very expensive, because you won't learn to appreciate it until you have been doing it |
| 339 | 01:00:58,290 --> 01:01:06,240 | for years. And you're gonna look back in your journal and say, Yeah, I can see clearly if I would have been trading on these days, which I'm telling you not to |
| 340 | 01:01:06,240 --> 01:01:18,930 | trade on, you would have lost your ass. And you can smile, and comfort knowing that you did not suffer that, because of your maturity and your wisdom and |
| 341 | 01:01:19,350 --> 01:01:28,770 | discipline, something that this generation is lacking. You get on social media, say whatever you want to say, carry on the way you want to carry on, and think |
| 342 | 01:01:28,770 --> 01:01:35,640 | there's no consequences to that. And you think with that mindset, you're just gonna go out here in these markets, and you're just going to kill it and make |
| 343 | 01:01:35,640 --> 01:01:43,080 | all kinds of money, it's going to be a cakewalk for you. And then when you have your first losing trade that goes into a series of losing trades, now you're in |
| 344 | 01:01:43,080 --> 01:01:57,030 | drawdown, you're gonna find out how fragile you really are. Because you're going to do dumb shit. You're going to make stupid decisions. You're going to chase |
| 345 | 01:01:57,390 --> 01:02:09,540 | losses, and parlay up to larger losses, thinking that you're going to get it back. And you keep digging the hole deeper. And you keep making that |
| 346 | 01:02:10,170 --> 01:02:24,570 | psychological wall higher fortifying that wall of disbelief that you're going to be successful. And all of this compounds into what toxic thinking losing trader |
| 347 | 01:02:24,900 --> 01:02:43,950 | failed trader. And all of that is easily, easily avoided. But it starts with discomfort. It starts by abstaining from these specific days in the marketplace. |
| 348 | 01:02:45,900 --> 01:03:01,290 | You all want to have a happy ending experience on these big movements. You don't even want to be in a long term relationship with the market. But the market is a |
| 349 | 01:03:01,290 --> 01:03:13,290 | cruel lover. And it does not like one nightstands you need to be able to stay and have a Viagra effect. And the only way you have a Viagra effect and trading |
| 350 | 01:03:13,290 --> 01:03:33,720 | in your equity is avoiding to quit and honestly, you want to have a slow hand. You don't want to be quick to push the button on days like this. You say yeah, |
| 351 | 01:03:33,720 --> 01:03:45,060 | I'm sorry. I don't need a Friday night floozy on either Sunday morning regret. And we just sit here and observe it and watch it from the end of the bar. And |
| 352 | 01:03:45,060 --> 01:03:57,660 | we'll see who leaves with him at the end at night. And who wakes up with an STD the following day. In the markets, everything looks good. Everything looks like |
| 353 | 01:03:57,660 --> 01:04:12,810 | you want to take it home. But then soon as you sit down and you push the button on day like this, and you get wrecked. It's not a matter of well, you know I |
| 354 | 01:04:12,810 --> 01:04:21,330 | stuck out this weekend. There's always next weekend, I'll work real hard to get my girl money up, go out to the clubs. And we'll see what I get then that |
| 355 | 01:04:21,330 --> 01:04:33,720 | doesn't work like this in the marketplace. Because you're in control of your own actions and your decisions. And when you lose your mind in days like this where |
| 356 | 01:04:33,720 --> 01:04:45,900 | it just rips against you. Do you have the discipline to say you know what? I put myself in a situation I can't correct today. It's going to take me time, maybe a |
| 357 | 01:04:45,900 --> 01:04:55,560 | couple of weeks to fix this. But I have thrown good money after bad and I have to abstain from this. And it doesn't mean I'm a failed trader. It doesn't mean |
| 358 | 01:04:55,560 --> 01:05:04,410 | my opportunities that I look for are flawed. It doesn't mean that my logic is faulty just means that I made the poor choice to engage in a day that I was |
| 359 | 01:05:04,410 --> 01:05:12,360 | told. Because all of your without excuse now, you have no excuse now for blowing your account because I'm telling you, I'm absolutely Guaran damn tee and you |
| 360 | 01:05:12,360 --> 01:05:24,750 | that this is exactly how it starts, if not on the very day of it. So if you did not listen to me and you push the button, then you traded today and you got |
| 361 | 01:05:24,750 --> 01:05:35,760 | hurt. Don't look at the rest of this day and think I'm gonna get something before the closer No, you don't know you don't. You just had a bitter pill, a |
| 362 | 01:05:35,760 --> 01:05:52,290 | jagged, bitter pill, wash it down with time, don't go in there, trying to fix it by doing more of the same shit, stop, don't do anything. Let the market do |
| 363 | 01:05:52,290 --> 01:06:01,800 | whatever it's going to do today. And I promise you, there's still going to be a plethora of opportunities throughout this year. In this one you want to remember |
| 364 | 01:06:01,800 --> 01:06:12,300 | it. You want to remember this day. Some of you probably already forgot about the CPI, the two of them that I outlined before I thought the Mark was gonna go |
| 365 | 01:06:12,300 --> 01:06:19,140 | wherever I thought was gonna go, I told everybody publicly, this is what I'm watching, this is what I would expect to see. And this is what it did do the |
| 366 | 01:06:19,140 --> 01:06:31,680 | opposite direction, immediately ran like a bullet direction. Illustrating exactly why I can't get in front of those market moves, I don't have a |
| 367 | 01:06:31,680 --> 01:06:45,660 | statistical edge and that that's consistent. So if I know that as a mentor, would I be a good instructor or teacher to you? If I know that's a weakness of |
| 368 | 01:06:45,660 --> 01:06:53,820 | mine. And I can't even prove to you like I prove everything else that I can trade with market maker models, I can trade with precision, I can get the |
| 369 | 01:06:53,820 --> 01:07:01,500 | targets I can trade lows of the day high the day. Notice that I'm not doing that on Non Farm Payroll days or CPI days. I mean, have you paid attention to nothing |
| 370 | 01:07:01,500 --> 01:07:15,870 | at least identified that much. I know where my my probabilities of success reside. And I know if I'm going to arm wrestle somebody, I'm not going to arm |
| 371 | 01:07:15,870 --> 01:07:25,860 | wrestle somebody that's bench pressing, you know, 500 pounds, Curlin 200 pound dumbbells, and it has an arm larger than my head. It has no neck. Okay, and |
| 372 | 01:07:26,220 --> 01:07:37,950 | literally looks like a mountain of muscle in front of me do what's my probabilities have beaten that? It didn't happen. So Why invite that? I don't |
| 373 | 01:07:37,950 --> 01:07:45,450 | know enough. And it doesn't. It doesn't affect me psychologically. I don't care if the opinion of others that are neophytes in this think that that's weakness, |
| 374 | 01:07:45,450 --> 01:07:55,200 | because I can't tray the head of these big moves when nobody else humanly can. You're asking for a superhero to step forward when that can't happen here. |
| 375 | 01:07:56,670 --> 01:08:06,240 | Because the markets are highly manipulated. And just because these big news drivers come out. And you might follow the fundamentals, you might feel like you |
| 376 | 01:08:06,240 --> 01:08:16,020 | have it figured out, and they may come out and release the data, unless the CPI because like I said CPI is like a bat out of hell, it's gone. It's already left |
| 377 | 01:08:16,020 --> 01:08:31,650 | the building. Soon, as you see on your chart, it's too late. And it's unforgiving. Many times the data will come out and say the data comes out that |
| 378 | 01:08:31,650 --> 01:08:45,270 | would be positive for the market. But it goes down immediately. How can you predict that? You can't. I can't No one can. That's what makes fundamentals |
| 379 | 01:08:45,270 --> 01:09:03,630 | stupid to me. It'll fundamentally make you poor. This whole business is based on money. That's it, money and psychology who has the weak mind who can be squeezed |
| 380 | 01:09:03,630 --> 01:09:15,180 | out? Who can be unseeded, taken out of the trade and have their seat taken by someone that's smarter. And it's all revolving around a TV Guide schedule that |
| 381 | 01:09:15,180 --> 01:09:25,320 | we call an economic calendar. And sometimes there's a shit show on TV and you don't want to be wasting your time watching it. And that's Non Farm Payroll. The |
| 382 | 01:09:25,320 --> 01:09:39,000 | cast is always a dud. There's no plot and it never feels good. It's not a rom com. It's not anything. It's not a date night flick. Okay, it's stupid to even |
| 383 | 01:09:39,000 --> 01:09:50,430 | waste your time with it. And I'm hoping that I won't have to talk about nonfarm payroll ever again. Hopefully I've illustrated that there is no necessity for |
| 384 | 01:09:50,430 --> 01:10:01,320 | you to build all this hope and engagement around one trading day out of one month out of the entire career that you're trying to frame See, some of you |
| 385 | 01:10:01,320 --> 01:10:11,490 | young folks think that you have to do this. Like, it's paramount that you learn how to trade these days. Here's the secret to it. Here's how you trade them. |
| 386 | 01:10:13,350 --> 01:10:23,850 | Have your charts off and do something else you've traded it on the sidelines is a winning position all the time. It never loses. It never has drawdown did never |
| 387 | 01:10:23,850 --> 01:10:38,370 | get stopped out. And there's no commission costs. But it's a fucking winner every single time, every single time. Don't think so? Look at that. Move today |
| 388 | 01:10:38,370 --> 01:10:49,290 | and all of your currencies and your indices and be offside. That's a losing position. But what if you were thinking about doing it, but didn't do it. And |
| 389 | 01:10:49,290 --> 01:11:02,040 | you would have gotten hurt but you didn't. That's maturity. That's wisdom. That's strength. That's power. That knowing when you're going to fail, but you |
| 390 | 01:11:02,040 --> 01:11:16,860 | succeed by not failing. None of these people teach this way. Because they have to engage you with dazzling you with this in that engagement, this and gimmick |
| 391 | 01:11:16,860 --> 01:11:28,890 | that. How you make money. That's how you get people pushing buttons. I don't want you pushing buttons. Think about how I teach you study price for a long |
| 392 | 01:11:28,890 --> 01:11:41,640 | time before you even do any demo. Why? Because you have to discover where you're going to derail yourself. And these days are going to be a catalyst for weak |
| 393 | 01:11:41,640 --> 01:11:57,930 | minded, undisciplined train wrecks. It's not a popular subject, it's not a feel good conversation. But it should be, you should feel like you're empowered. Now. |
| 394 | 01:11:57,960 --> 01:12:08,340 | You know what? My teacher said that he doesn't have to worry about trading those days, and he can still find setups. And yes, these are days where it's a gamble. |
| 395 | 01:12:09,090 --> 01:12:20,880 | So I'm not going to put that pressure on me to try to trade and expect precision on these days when it's not possible. How How wonderful. And how liberating is |
| 396 | 01:12:20,880 --> 01:12:34,800 | that? It's this one extra thing that you don't have to contend with, and worry about and obsessively compulsively fear. But everybody else is going to try to |
| 397 | 01:12:35,070 --> 01:12:49,230 | crack the code on these days. They want to be the ones that figured it out. Hey, if someone can figure it out consistently do it, I'd be there students aren't |
| 398 | 01:12:49,230 --> 01:12:57,330 | going to shame that as something that I couldn't do. But I'm going to tell you right now, it's never going to happen. It's never going to happen. And how can I |
| 399 | 01:12:57,330 --> 01:13:10,920 | know that in confidence. Because the hand behind this market and the things that make this world spin, they're always going to be in control, they're gonna |
| 400 | 01:13:10,920 --> 01:13:21,960 | manipulate. And when there's enough money to be taken on one side of the marketplace, that's where it's going. That's it. Wherever the most money is, |
| 401 | 01:13:21,960 --> 01:13:33,840 | that's the path of least resistance. That's how your mindset should be going forward. Because that's how the hand operates. So hopefully, you found this |
| 402 | 01:13:33,960 --> 01:13:46,140 | insightful, hopefully, I was able to, more or less nailed down. Why it is that I don't trade non farm payrolls, and you can apply this to CPI, you can also apply |
| 403 | 01:13:46,140 --> 01:13:56,640 | it to ahead of FOMC rate announcements like I don't have a position ahead of FOMC rate announcements. Now, after only on listen to this, folks, only after |
| 404 | 01:13:56,640 --> 01:14:08,250 | CPI has hit the market and created its craziness, then I'll look to trade maybe 30 minutes after the news driver hits. So 30 minutes after CPI, then yet you can |
| 405 | 01:14:08,250 --> 01:14:18,930 | trade that later in the day. In the pm session. If it's still something that's of interest, you can study non farm payrolls in the afternoon session. But |
| 406 | 01:14:18,930 --> 01:14:28,770 | generally it's going into the weekend, nobody's really caring about it more. And usually the volatility is very light. So that's why not touch it. FOMC rate |
| 407 | 01:14:28,770 --> 01:14:38,670 | announcements when the first move happens, I'm trying to get a feel for what it should do. But when it does, whatever it's going to do then I know that 230 |
| 408 | 01:14:39,690 --> 01:14:47,640 | that's the that's the other direction. Not all the time, but you're gonna see that 80% of the time that's usually what FOMC does. The first move is a Judas |
| 409 | 01:14:48,210 --> 01:14:55,980 | and sometimes it's even wrong based on what I'm gonna it's wrong if I'm wrong, in my expectation what it's likely to do, but it's okay. Because I'm waiting for |
| 410 | 01:14:55,980 --> 01:15:04,890 | that penny to drop. Once the market does what it's going to do, bye Based on that initial rate announcement hitting the marketplace, then I know I'm going to |
| 411 | 01:15:04,890 --> 01:15:14,430 | try to do the opposite direction because there's so much money already in there based on what's been priced in, stops liquidity, and that's what the 230 run |
| 412 | 01:15:14,460 --> 01:15:24,300 | goes right to, in tears or face off. That's how I trade on FOMC rate announcement things after the fact I don't trade in the morning session. Because |
| 413 | 01:15:24,300 --> 01:15:32,850 | chances are, if I do something wrong, they're human psychology means that I have to do what I can to get it back. So I teach my students not to do that too, |
| 414 | 01:15:32,940 --> 01:15:43,230 | because you don't want to go into FOMC in the afternoon, after 230 When the real move takes place, with drawdown because you're going to be enticed to do what |
| 415 | 01:15:43,950 --> 01:15:56,370 | more than you should, and you're gonna be emotionally attached to trade because you have something that you've lost. So you don't wanna do that. That's That's |
| 416 | 01:15:56,370 --> 01:16:05,790 | it for today. Hopefully you found it helpful. Hopefully, I've answered some questions in regards to what it is I teach and why I teach the way I teach about |
| 417 | 01:16:05,790 --> 01:16:14,400 | it. And you don't need these days to do well. I promise. Until next time, be safe. |