Changes for page ICT Mentorship 2023 Gems
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2023-09-04 11:48
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edited by Drunk Monkey
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... ... @@ -1,8 +1,8 @@ 1 1 {{box cssClass="box floatinginfobox" title="**Table of Contents**"}} 2 -{{toc depth=" 5" numbered="true" start="2"/}}2 +{{toc depth="2" numbered="true" start="2"/}} 3 3 {{/box}} 4 4 5 -Summarized by [[@SirPickle_>>https://twitter.com/SirPickle_]] 5 +Summarized by [[@SirPickle_>>https://twitter.com/SirPickle_]] as a google document [[here>>https://docs.google.com/document/d/14x_13c98oq3u-FrVWK3Nh9gGLYKzBzgLgBRTdgOBAhs]] 6 6 7 7 == 1:30 Judas == 8 8 ... ... @@ -20,157 +20,689 @@ 20 20 21 21 ==== ES 1m ==== 22 22 23 +* AM session buy stops ran 24 +* RELs are the draw 25 +* MSS + Displacement 26 +* Short entry in the FVG 27 + 28 +[[image:image17.png]] 29 + 23 23 === Example 3 === 24 24 25 25 ==== ES 1m ==== 26 26 34 +* High of day (HOD) Buy-side was swept and had a MSS + Displacement 35 +* We look for a Judas Swing at 1:30pm into a premium PD Array 36 +* Today that PD Array was a 1min FVG 37 +* Could not get fill in the FVG so entry on the VIB 38 + 39 +[[image:image23.png]] 40 + 27 27 === Example 4 === 28 28 29 29 ==== ES 1m ==== 30 30 45 +* Lunch SSL swept and we had a MSS+Displacement (2022 model) 46 +* DXY rejecting Daily OB means we should see higher prices in ES 47 +* Unicorn setup provided entry at accumulation phase 48 +* We look for Judas Swing at 1:30pm into a discount PD array (+OB offered entry at re-accumulation phase of the {{glossaryReference glossaryId="Glossary" entryId="MMBM"}}MMBM{{/glossaryReference}}) 49 + 50 +[[image:image13.png]] 51 + 52 +==== DXY 15m ==== 53 + 54 +[[image:image15.png]] 55 + 31 31 === Example 5 === 32 32 33 33 ==== NQ 5m ==== 34 34 60 +* With the idea that price is drawing towards REL (12457.25), we look for a Judas Swing at 1:30pm into a premium PD array. 61 +* Today that PD array was a 5m unicorn (Breaker+ FVG) 62 + 63 +[[image:image49.png]] 64 + 65 +==== NQ 1m ==== 66 + 67 +[[image:image33.png]] 68 + 35 35 === Example 6 === 36 36 37 37 ==== ES 2m ==== 38 38 73 +* Shorts been in control all week = expect short coverings going into the weekend 74 +* We look for a Judas Swing at 1:30pm into a discount PD Array 75 +* Today that PD array was a Unicorn or even the +OB 76 +* Price will now seek Buyside Liquidity 39 39 78 +[[image:image44.png]] 79 + 80 +ES 5m 81 + 82 +[[image:image37.png]] 83 + 84 +Original Reference: ? 85 + 40 40 ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 41 41 42 -== NewWeekOpeningGap (NWOG)==88 +== 3PM Judas Swing == 43 43 90 +* The same concept can be applied to the 3pm session as well! 91 +* From my personal experience I don't see this one happen as often or even act as reliable as the 1:30 Judas. For that reason I don't have many examples. 92 + 93 +=== Example === 94 + 95 +==== ES1m ==== 96 + 97 +[[image:image14.png]] 98 + 99 +Original Reference: ? 100 + 44 44 ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 45 45 46 -== Understandingwhat multipletouches ofNWOGmeans==103 +== New Week Opening Gap (NWOG) == 47 47 105 +The New Week Opening Gap is a strong price magnet 106 + 107 +Draw it out every week onto your charts (Friday closing price to Sunday open price) 108 + 109 +The market is going to gravitate back to it IF we are NOT TRENDING and many times become REAL support/resistance 110 + 111 +You should have the last 4 NWOGs + the current week's NWOG on your chart. So 5 in total. Have a separate template for only NWOG. 112 + 113 +Doing so gives you an X-ray view of how the algorithm will refer back to old areas of real FAIR VALUE 114 + 115 +[[image:image6.png]] 116 + 117 +Original Reference: ? 118 + 48 48 ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 49 49 50 -== Gapshatdon'tfill arerocketfuel==121 +== Understanding what multiple touches of NWOG means == 51 51 123 +If we see price come back to the NWOG multiple times intra week you are likely in a consolidation that's going to continue 124 + 125 +[[image:image11.png]] 126 + 127 +Original Reference: ? 128 + 52 52 ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 53 53 54 -== Understandingequilibriumof discount ==131 +== Gaps that don't fill are rocket fuel == 55 55 133 +This means price is in a hurry to reprice to a level that's outside the range its in currently (External range liquidity) 134 + 135 +Every time we get in a trade we look for this signature 136 + 137 +Original Reference: ? 138 + 56 56 ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 57 57 141 +== Understanding equilibrium of discount == 142 + 143 +Highest probability shorts have been exhausted once we move below equilibrium of DISCOUNT 144 + 145 +[[image:image28.png]] 146 + 147 +Original Reference: ? 148 + 149 +====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 150 + 58 58 == Understanding low probability conditions == 59 59 153 +Key Lesson: If you have 2 equally probable outcomes you are trading in low probability conditions and essentially gambling . Sit on the sidelines and demand more information. 154 + 155 +[[image:image42.png]] 156 + 157 +Original Reference: ? 158 + 60 60 ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 61 61 62 -== New Day Opening Gap (NDOG) 161 +== New Day Opening Gap (NDOG) == 63 63 163 +When we open at 6pm, drag a rectangle from the 5pm closing price to the 6pm open 164 + 165 +Extend that throughout the next 12-16 hours. That will act much like you see with the NWOG 166 + 167 +[[image:image16.png]] 168 + 169 +Example of precision with NDOG: 170 + 171 +[[image:image46.png]] 172 + 173 +Original Reference: ? 174 + 64 64 ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 65 65 66 66 == Quarter of the wick == 67 67 179 +When there is a bearish heavy stance on price, C.E of a wick is likely not to be traded too. 180 + 181 +If you suspect that is the case, you get the very specific price level of one quarter of the wick 182 + 183 +[[image:image2.png]] 184 + 185 +Original Reference: ? 186 + 68 68 ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 69 69 70 70 == PM session running AM session Buy stops == 71 71 191 +If you see a trending morning session like below, ask yourself where are shorts trailing their stops? 192 + 193 +Expect the PM session to take those stops 194 + 195 +ES 1 min 196 + 197 +[[image:image26.png]] 198 + 199 +Original Reference: ? 200 + 72 72 ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 73 73 74 -== Market on close Macro 203 +== Market on close Macro == 75 75 205 +In a up close day rarely do you see the candle close on the high unless its a trending day. 206 + 207 +Typically it creates the intraday HOD then pulls away from it and closes near the high. 208 + 209 +This is the market on close Macro 210 + 211 +[[image:image31.png]] 212 + 213 +Original Reference: ? 214 + 76 76 ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 77 77 78 78 == 3:15-3:45 Sweet Spot == 79 79 219 +Generally you will find between 3:15-3:45pm a sweet spot to place a trade if we know where we are looking for liquidity. 220 + 221 +Above the market place if bullish 222 + 223 +Below the market place if bearish 224 + 225 +OR 226 + 227 +if there is an imbalance we will look to rebalance it 228 + 229 +The algo will spool to a obvious point of liquidity that had not been targeted yet 230 + 231 +Example 232 + 233 +[[image:image1.png]] 234 + 235 +Original Reference: ? 236 + 80 80 ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 81 81 82 82 == The Upper Quarter Concept == 83 83 241 +If you believe that you have figured out where the low is in the market for a particular price swing and you think its gonna go up to an old high where BSL is, the equilibrium of that run and below is where the best buy opportunities occur. 242 + 243 +As soon as we get to the upper quarter of where the target is, the market is not likely to go back for sell stops. This is because price will be in a hurry to run out Buy stops in so traders don't get the opportunity for those orders to be pulled. 244 + 245 +ES 2m 246 + 247 +[[image:image18.png]] 248 + 249 +Original Reference: ? 250 + 84 84 ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 85 85 86 -== Regular Trading Hours (RTH) 253 +== Regular Trading Hours (RTH) == 87 87 255 +When trading futures indices you need to also consider how we closed the previous session and where we opened at 9:30 because that difference is a REAL Liquidity Void. We call it the Opening range gap. 256 + 257 +Price has a tendency to not let these areas stay unfilled for too long. 258 + 259 +At 9:30 open, every single day as an index futures trader you are going to toggle RTH on and identify the Opening Range Gap: 260 + 261 +We are opening up with a Premium if the gap is higher than the previous session close 262 + 263 +We are opening up at a Discount if the gap is lower than the previous session close 264 + 265 +[[image:image30.png]] 266 + 267 +[[image:image34.png]] 268 + 269 +Reviewing the relationship between the Daily VIBs and RTH gap + Understanding opening at a premium/discount of RTH: 270 + 271 +[[image:image9.png]] 272 + 273 +[[image:image25.png]] 274 + 275 +Original Reference: ? 276 + 88 88 ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 89 89 90 90 == When to expect Seek and Destroy conditions == 91 91 281 +1) On the heels of any holiday that impacts normal trading hours the very next trading session, the morning is likely to be VERY low probability/choppy. The market is more prone to seek and destroy conditions 282 + 283 +(For example on Monday the market is closed due to a bank holiday, expect a choppy AM session going into Tuesday) 284 + 285 +-Let the market fall back to its normalcy 286 + 287 +-Only retail traders are rushing to the markets on a day like this like gamblers at a casino 288 + 289 +2) Higher Time frame target is delivered prior to 9:30 am open expect a choppy AM session 290 + 291 +3) Asia High and Low are raided during the London session. Then London High and Low are raided during NY creating a broadening formation 292 + 293 +Original Reference: ? 294 + 92 92 ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 93 93 94 -== Implied FVG 297 +== Implied FVG == 95 95 299 +How to identify a FVG when there is no "gap" and only overlapping wicks 300 + 301 +[[image:image20.png]] 302 + 303 +Original Reference: ? 304 + 96 96 ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 97 97 98 -== When 3 PD Arrays fail your fucked == 307 +== When 3 PD Arrays fail you're fucked == 99 99 309 +"When 3 PD arrays fail you're fucked. It's going the other direction." 310 + 311 +[[image:image22.png]] 312 + 313 +References: 314 + 315 +* [[How To Fail & Not Know It Until It's Too Late>>https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/drunk-monkey7/episodes/How-To-Fail--Not-Know-It-Until-Its-Too-Late---February-22--2023-e1vclf9||style="outline-width: 0px !important; user-select: auto !important;"]] - Feb 2, 2023 (@13m 56s) 316 +* [[Feb 10, 2023 Market Review>>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=STEGBblm4dI]] (@38m 20s) 317 + 100 100 ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 101 101 102 -== A CLOSE below the swing low that we would see as being a Market Structure Shift, we treat it as a Breaker 320 +== A CLOSE below the swing low that we would see as being a Market Structure Shift, we treat it as a Breaker == 103 103 322 +[[image:image3.png]] 323 + 324 +Original Reference: ? 325 + 104 104 ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 105 105 106 -== 3 candle price action signature 328 +== 3 candle price action signature == 107 107 330 +[[image:image53.png]] 331 + 332 +Original Reference: ? 333 + 108 108 ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 109 109 110 -== Event Horizon 336 +== Event Horizon == 111 111 338 +Half way between a NWOG and the closest NWOG is the Event Horizon 339 + 340 +It will not allow price to escape the draw to the NWOG and it will create a surge towards the NWOG it got too "close" to but yet reached 341 + 342 +Example 1 343 + 344 +ES 15m 345 + 346 +[[image:image38.png]] 347 + 348 +ES 2m 349 + 350 +[[image:image10.png]] 351 + 352 +Example 2 353 + 354 +ES 15m 355 + 356 +[[image:image52.png]] 357 + 358 +Example 3 359 + 360 +ES 15m 361 + 362 +[[image:image21.png]] 363 + 364 +Original Reference: ? 365 + 112 112 ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 113 113 114 114 == How to avoid taking a low probability FVG == 115 115 370 +How to AVOID taking low probability FVGs using DXY 371 + 372 +[[image:image43.png]] 373 + 374 +Original Reference: ? 375 + 116 116 ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 117 117 118 -== How far can you trust price to go above BSL or SSL for a Turtle Soup? 378 +== How far can you trust price to go above BSL or SSL for a Turtle Soup? == 119 119 380 +How far can you trust price to go above BSL or SSL for a Turtle Soup? 381 + 382 +NWOG 383 + 384 +NDOG 385 + 386 +Opening Range Gap 387 + 388 +These are 3 specific tools you can use to answer this question 389 + 390 +[[image:image50.png]] 391 + 392 +Original Reference: ? 393 + 120 120 ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 121 121 122 -== NWOG Actual and NWOG 396 +== NWOG Actual and NWOG == 123 123 398 +NWOG Actual = Fridays close to Sundays Open 399 + 400 +NWOG = Fridays close to Mondays Equities Open at 9:30am 401 + 402 +(On a personal note I don't use NWOG from close to Monday 9:30 open. All I use is NWOG Actual and I think that's more than enough) 403 + 404 +[[image:image47.png]] 405 + 406 +Original Reference: ? 407 + 124 124 ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 125 125 126 -== Macros 410 +== Macros == 127 127 412 +A macro is a window of time where the algorithm will seek untapped liquidity or an imbalance. You can split your day up into windows of time and only trade these macros! 413 + 414 +You can enter prior to the macro beginning. 415 + 416 +The run will originate inside the macro time but does not have to complete it. It can still deliver after macro close 417 + 418 +The NY session Macros (All NY eastern time): 419 + 420 +9:50-10:10am (MY FAVORITE) 421 + 422 +10:50-11:10 am 423 + 424 +11:50-12:10 pm (l never trade this one...) 425 + 426 +1:30pm Judas 427 + 428 +3:15-3:45 pm "Sweet Spot" 429 + 430 + 431 +As a bonus here are some example of my favorite macro 9:50-10:10: 432 + 433 +Example 1 (ES 1 min) 434 + 435 +SSL swept right at open into Daily C.E level 436 + 437 +MSS+Displacement created FVG and +OB 438 + 439 +SMT with NQ 440 + 441 +Long entry in FVG 442 + 443 +Target most recent high break/ NWOG 444 + 445 +[[image:image12.png]] 446 + 447 +I would also like to add that The RTH gap gave me a soft bullish bias this morning which gave me confidence in tak)ing this long. As you can see we filled it PERFECTLY (ES 15 min 448 + 449 +[[image:image19.png]] 450 + 451 +Example 2 (ES 1 min) 452 + 453 +A couple ES NFP Friday Scalps 454 + 455 +1st: 456 + 457 +LOD sweep + 1H FVG C.E 458 + 459 +Strong Displacement creating FVG 460 + 461 +1m bearish FVG clear DOL 462 + 463 + 464 +2nd: 465 + 466 +Entry off inversion level and +OB 467 + 468 +Scale at new short term high 469 + 470 +Wanted 3916 but stopped B.E on runners 471 + 472 +[[image:image4.png]] 473 + 474 +Example 3 (ES 1 min) 475 + 476 + 477 +Market left REHs at the London High 478 + 479 +Previous Week's low Sell side swept and had a MSS+Displacement (2022 model) 480 + 481 +DXY had a liquidity void to fill below meaning ES 482 + 483 +Long entry in the Unicorn 484 + 485 +[[image:image36.png]] 486 + 487 +DXY 15 min 488 + 489 +[[image:image5.png]] 490 + 491 +Original Reference: ? 492 + 128 128 ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 129 129 130 -== 10-11am Silver Bullet 495 +== 10-11am Silver Bullet == 131 131 497 + 498 +Here's something to backtest 499 + 500 +According to ICT, between 10-11am NY time you will find a FVG that delivers 5 handles EVERY day 100% guaranteed 501 + 502 +It'll ALWAYS be there aiming for an opposing pool of liquidity 503 + 504 +You will find it on the 1min, 30s, or 15s timeframe 505 + 506 +This is true even on choppy days and shortened bank holidays where market closes early 507 + 508 +[[image:image29.png]] 509 + 510 +Simply put, the Silver Bullet is always a continuation of whatever is in motion at the time. If you cant determine what is in motion dont take the Silver Bullet. 511 + 512 +When in doubt stay out! 513 + 514 +This tidbit came from the May 6 Twitter space which imo is one of the best/most informative ones he has held... check it out when you get the chance: 515 + 516 +Original Reference: ICT Twitter Space | Time Based Setups & Models | May 6th 2023 517 + 132 132 ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 133 133 134 -== MSS after 1pm 520 +== MSS after 1pm == 135 135 522 +If there is a shift in Market Structure after 1pm, 523 + 524 +Price will most likely run for Lunch and AM Session Buy Stops 525 + 526 +[[image:image41.png]] 527 + 528 +Original Reference: ? 529 + 136 136 ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 137 137 138 138 == How to use NWOG inside of old areas of orderflow == 139 139 534 +[[image:image32.png]] 535 + 536 +ES 5m 537 + 538 +[[image:image8.png]] 539 + 540 +Original Reference: ? 541 + 140 140 ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 141 141 142 142 == Immediate Rebalance == 143 143 546 +If we are bullish and price does this formation it is one of the most powerful signatures for IMMEDIATE dynamic price delivery 547 + 548 +[[image:image40.png]] 549 + 550 +Original Reference: ICT Mentorship 2023 - Immediate Rebalance & Institutional Order Flow 551 + 144 144 ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 145 145 146 146 == Using NWOG to analyze market conditions == 147 147 556 +[[image:image24.png]] 557 + 558 +Original Reference: ? 559 + 148 148 ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 149 149 150 150 == Inversion FVG example == 151 151 564 +If a market closes above a FVG that you think should be bearish, thats not a good shorting opportunity 565 + 566 +Many times its communicating to you it will become an inversion FVG 567 + 568 +$ES example 569 + 570 +[[image:image51.png]] 571 + 572 +Original Reference: ? 573 + 152 152 ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 153 153 154 154 == How to approach the lunch hour when bias/target is clear == 155 155 578 +Price hasn't reached Daily/Weekly Target? Expectation for lunch hour is too look for a 5/15min low or RELs 579 + 580 +If there is a FVG or VIB just underneath that low that is a UNICORN 581 + 582 +[[image:image45.png]] 583 + 584 +Original Reference: ? 585 + 156 156 ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 157 157 158 158 == Seek and Destroy cheat sheet == 159 159 590 +[[image:image48.png]] 591 + 592 +Original Reference: ? 593 + 160 160 ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 161 161 162 162 == Partials at wicks/long tails == 163 163 598 +Whenever there is a wick/long tail inside of the range you are trading in and your position affords it, ALWAYS take a partial at the midpoint (CE) 599 + 600 +Often times price can trade right to the CE of the wick, stop on a dime, consolidate, or straight up reverse. 601 + 602 +[[image:image27.png]] 603 + 604 +Original Reference: ? 605 + 164 164 ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 165 165 166 166 == Understanding Balanced Price Ranges(BPRs) == 167 167 610 +[[image:image7.png]] 611 + 612 +Original Reference: ? 613 + 168 168 ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 169 169 170 170 == More Silver Bullet gems == 171 171 618 +The Silver Bullet FVG does NOT have to happen inside the one hour period. Only the entry does. 619 + 620 +It can refer back to a FVG that formed in the run up if its bullish between 9:30-10am (vice versa) 621 + 622 +There is a macro that begins at 1:30pm that sets the tone and pace for the 2-3pm Silver Bullet. 623 + 624 +Original Reference: ? 625 + 172 172 ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 173 173 174 174 == ICT Glossary of terms == 175 175 630 +BB - Breaker Block 631 + 632 +BISI - Buyside Imbalance Sellside Inefficiency 633 + 634 +BPR - Balanced Price Range 635 + 636 +BRK - Breaker 637 + 638 +BSL - Buyside Liquidity 639 + 640 +CE - {{glossaryReference glossaryId="Glossary" entryId="Consequent Encroachment"}}Consequent Encroachment{{/glossaryReference}} (Inefficiencies Only) 641 + 642 +DOL - Draw on Liquidity 643 + 644 +EQH - Equal Highs 645 + 646 +EQL - Equal Lows 647 + 648 +FVG - Fair Value Gap 649 + 650 +iFVG - Implied Fair Value Gap 651 + 652 +HRLR - High Resistance Liquidity Run 653 + 654 +IDM - Inducement 655 + 656 +{{glossaryReference glossaryId="Glossary" entryId="IOFED"}}IOFED{{/glossaryReference}} - Institutional Orderflow Entry Drill 657 + 658 +LRLR - Low Resistance Liquidity Run 659 + 660 +MB - Mitigation Block 661 + 662 +{{glossaryReference glossaryId="Glossary" entryId="MMBM"}}MMBM{{/glossaryReference}} - Market Maker Buy Model 663 + 664 +{{glossaryReference glossaryId="Glossary" entryId="MMSM"}}MMSM{{/glossaryReference}} - Market Maker Sell Model 665 + 666 +MMXM - Market Maker Model 667 + 668 +MSS - Market Structure Shift 669 + 670 +MT - Mean Threshold (Blocks Only) 671 + 672 +NDOG - New Day Opening Gap 673 + 674 +NFP - Non Farm Payroll 675 + 676 +NWOG - New Week Opening Gap 677 + 678 +OB - Orderblock 679 + 680 +{{glossaryReference glossaryId="Glossary" entryId="OTE"}}OTE{{/glossaryReference}} - Optimal Trade Entry 681 + 682 +PA - Price Action 683 + 684 +PB - Propulsion Block 685 + 686 +PD - Premium / Discount 687 + 688 +PD Array - Any type of ICT entry (FVG, VI, OB etc) 689 + 690 +PDH - Previous Day High 691 + 692 +PDL - Previous Day Low 693 + 694 +PWH - Previous Week High 695 + 696 +PWL - Previous Week Low 697 + 698 +RB - Rejection Block 699 + 700 +SIBI - Sellside Imbalance Buyside Inefficiency 701 + 702 +SSL - Sellside Liquidity 703 + 704 +VI - Volume Imbalance 705 + 176 176 ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 707 + 708 +
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