Changes for page ICT Mentorship 2023 Gems
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2023-09-04 11:48
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... ... @@ -1,8 +1,8 @@ 1 -{{box cssClass="box floatinginfobox" title="**Table of Contents**"}} 2 -{{toc depth=" 2" numbered="true" start="2"/}}3 -{{/box}} 1 +~{~{ box cssClass="box floatinginfobox" title="**Table of Contents**"}} 2 +~{~{ toc depth="5" numbered="true" start="2"/}} 3 +~{~{ /box}} 4 4 5 -Summarized by [[@SirPickle_>>https://twitter.com/SirPickle_]] 5 +Summarized by [[@SirPickle_>>https://twitter.com/SirPickle_]] as a google document [[here>>https://docs.google.com/document/d/14x_13c98oq3u-FrVWK3Nh9gGLYKzBzgLgBRTdgOBAhs]] 6 6 7 7 == 1:30 Judas == 8 8 ... ... @@ -20,22 +20,29 @@ 20 20 21 21 ==== ES 1m ==== 22 22 23 -* AM session buy stops ran 24 -* RELs are the draw 25 -* MSS + Displacement 26 -* Short entry in the FVG 23 +AM session buy stops ran 27 27 25 +RELs are the draw 26 + 27 +MSS + Displacement 28 + 29 +Short entry in the FVG 30 + 28 28 [[image:image17.png]] 32 + 29 29 30 30 === Example 3 === 31 31 32 32 ==== ES 1m ==== 33 33 34 -* High of day (HOD) Buy-side was swept and had a MSS + Displacement 35 -* We look for a Judas Swing at 1:30pm into a premium PD Array 36 -* Today that PD Array was a 1min FVG 37 -* Could not get fill in the FVG so entry on the VIB 38 +High of day (HOD) Buy-side was swept and had a MSS + Displacement 38 38 40 +We look for a Judas Swing at 1:30pm into a premium PD Array 41 + 42 +Today that PD Array was a 1min FVG 43 + 44 +Could not get fill in the FVG so entry on the VIB 45 + 39 39 [[image:image23.png]] 40 40 41 41 === Example 4 === ... ... @@ -42,667 +42,149 @@ 42 42 43 43 ==== ES 1m ==== 44 44 45 -* Lunch SSL swept and we had a MSS+Displacement (2022 model) 46 -* DXY rejecting Daily OB means we should see higher prices in ES 47 -* Unicorn setup provided entry at accumulation phase 48 -* We look for Judas Swing at 1:30pm into a discount PD array (+OB offered entry at re-accumulation phase of the {{glossaryReference glossaryId="Glossary" entryId="MMBM"}}MMBM{{/glossaryReference}}) 49 - 50 -[[image:image13.png]] 51 - 52 -==== DXY 15m ==== 53 - 54 -[[image:image15.png]] 55 - 56 56 === Example 5 === 57 57 58 58 ==== NQ 5m ==== 59 59 60 -* With the idea that price is drawing towards REL (12457.25), we look for a Judas Swing at 1:30pm into a premium PD array. 61 -* Today that PD array was a 5m unicorn (Breaker+ FVG) 62 - 63 -[[image:image49.png]] 64 - 65 -==== NQ 1m ==== 66 - 67 -[[image:image33.png]] 68 - 69 69 === Example 6 === 70 70 71 71 ==== ES 2m ==== 72 72 73 -* Shorts been in control all week = expect short coverings going into the weekend 74 -* We look for a Judas Swing at 1:30pm into a discount PD Array 75 -* Today that PD array was a Unicorn or even the +OB 76 -* Price will now seek Buyside Liquidity 77 77 78 -[[image:image44.png]] 79 - 80 -ES 5m 81 - 82 -[[image:image37.png]] 83 - 84 -Original Reference: ? 85 - 86 86 ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 87 87 88 -== 3PM Judas Swing == 89 - 90 -* The same concept can be applied to the 3pm session as well! 91 -* From my personal experience I don't see this one happen as often or even act as reliable as the 1:30 Judas. For that reason I don't have many examples. 92 - 93 -=== Example === 94 - 95 -==== ES1m ==== 96 - 97 -[[image:image14.png]] 98 - 99 -Original Reference: ? 100 - 101 -====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 102 - 103 103 == New Week Opening Gap (NWOG) == 104 104 105 -The New Week Opening Gap is a strong price magnet 106 - 107 -Draw it out every week onto your charts (Friday closing price to Sunday open price) 108 - 109 -The market is going to gravitate back to it IF we are NOT TRENDING and many times become REAL support/resistance 110 - 111 -You should have the last 4 NWOGs + the current week's NWOG on your chart. So 5 in total. Have a separate template for only NWOG. 112 - 113 -Doing so gives you an X-ray view of how the algorithm will refer back to old areas of real FAIR VALUE 114 - 115 -[[image:image6.png]] 116 - 117 -Original Reference: ? 118 - 119 119 ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 120 120 121 121 == Understanding what multiple touches of NWOG means == 122 122 123 -If we see price come back to the NWOG multiple times intra week you are likely in a consolidation that's going to continue 124 - 125 -[[image:image11.png]] 126 - 127 -Original Reference: ? 128 - 129 129 ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 130 130 131 131 == Gaps that don't fill are rocket fuel == 132 132 133 -This means price is in a hurry to reprice to a level that's outside the range its in currently (External range liquidity) 134 - 135 -Every time we get in a trade we look for this signature 136 - 137 -Original Reference: ? 138 - 139 139 ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 140 140 141 141 == Understanding equilibrium of discount == 142 142 143 -Highest probability shorts have been exhausted once we move below equilibrium of DISCOUNT 144 - 145 -[[image:image28.png]] 146 - 147 -Original Reference: ? 148 - 149 149 ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 150 150 151 151 == Understanding low probability conditions == 152 152 153 -Key Lesson: If you have 2 equally probable outcomes you are trading in low probability conditions and essentially gambling . Sit on the sidelines and demand more information. 154 - 155 -[[image:image42.png]] 156 - 157 -Original Reference: ? 158 - 159 159 ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 160 160 161 161 == New Day Opening Gap (NDOG) == 162 162 163 -When we open at 6pm, drag a rectangle from the 5pm closing price to the 6pm open 164 - 165 -Extend that throughout the next 12-16 hours. That will act much like you see with the NWOG 166 - 167 -[[image:image16.png]] 168 - 169 -Example of precision with NDOG: 170 - 171 -[[image:image46.png]] 172 - 173 -Original Reference: ? 174 - 175 175 ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 176 176 177 177 == Quarter of the wick == 178 178 179 -When there is a bearish heavy stance on price, C.E of a wick is likely not to be traded too. 180 - 181 -If you suspect that is the case, you get the very specific price level of one quarter of the wick 182 - 183 -[[image:image2.png]] 184 - 185 -Original Reference: ? 186 - 187 187 ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 188 188 189 189 == PM session running AM session Buy stops == 190 190 191 -If you see a trending morning session like below, ask yourself where are shorts trailing their stops? 192 - 193 -Expect the PM session to take those stops 194 - 195 -ES 1 min 196 - 197 -[[image:image26.png]] 198 - 199 -Original Reference: ? 200 - 201 201 ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 202 202 203 203 == Market on close Macro == 204 204 205 -In a up close day rarely do you see the candle close on the high unless its a trending day. 206 - 207 -Typically it creates the intraday HOD then pulls away from it and closes near the high. 208 - 209 -This is the market on close Macro 210 - 211 -[[image:image31.png]] 212 - 213 -Original Reference: ? 214 - 215 215 ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 216 216 217 217 == 3:15-3:45 Sweet Spot == 218 218 219 -Generally you will find between 3:15-3:45pm a sweet spot to place a trade if we know where we are looking for liquidity. 220 - 221 -Above the market place if bullish 222 - 223 -Below the market place if bearish 224 - 225 -OR 226 - 227 -if there is an imbalance we will look to rebalance it 228 - 229 -The algo will spool to a obvious point of liquidity that had not been targeted yet 230 - 231 -Example 232 - 233 -[[image:image1.png]] 234 - 235 -Original Reference: ? 236 - 237 237 ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 238 238 239 239 == The Upper Quarter Concept == 240 240 241 -If you believe that you have figured out where the low is in the market for a particular price swing and you think its gonna go up to an old high where BSL is, the equilibrium of that run and below is where the best buy opportunities occur. 242 - 243 -As soon as we get to the upper quarter of where the target is, the market is not likely to go back for sell stops. This is because price will be in a hurry to run out Buy stops in so traders don't get the opportunity for those orders to be pulled. 244 - 245 -ES 2m 246 - 247 -[[image:image18.png]] 248 - 249 -Original Reference: ? 250 - 251 251 ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 252 252 253 253 == Regular Trading Hours (RTH) == 254 254 255 -When trading futures indices you need to also consider how we closed the previous session and where we opened at 9:30 because that difference is a REAL Liquidity Void. We call it the Opening range gap. 256 - 257 -Price has a tendency to not let these areas stay unfilled for too long. 258 - 259 -At 9:30 open, every single day as an index futures trader you are going to toggle RTH on and identify the Opening Range Gap: 260 - 261 -We are opening up with a Premium if the gap is higher than the previous session close 262 - 263 -We are opening up at a Discount if the gap is lower than the previous session close 264 - 265 -[[image:image30.png]] 266 - 267 -[[image:image34.png]] 268 - 269 -Reviewing the relationship between the Daily VIBs and RTH gap + Understanding opening at a premium/discount of RTH: 270 - 271 -[[image:image9.png]] 272 - 273 -[[image:image25.png]] 274 - 275 -Original Reference: ? 276 - 277 277 ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 278 278 279 279 == When to expect Seek and Destroy conditions == 280 280 281 -1) On the heels of any holiday that impacts normal trading hours the very next trading session, the morning is likely to be VERY low probability/choppy. The market is more prone to seek and destroy conditions 282 - 283 -(For example on Monday the market is closed due to a bank holiday, expect a choppy AM session going into Tuesday) 284 - 285 --Let the market fall back to its normalcy 286 - 287 --Only retail traders are rushing to the markets on a day like this like gamblers at a casino 288 - 289 -2) Higher Time frame target is delivered prior to 9:30 am open expect a choppy AM session 290 - 291 -3) Asia High and Low are raided during the London session. Then London High and Low are raided during NY creating a broadening formation 292 - 293 -Original Reference: ? 294 - 295 295 ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 296 296 297 297 == Implied FVG == 298 298 299 -How to identify a FVG when there is no "gap" and only overlapping wicks 300 - 301 -[[image:image20.png]] 302 - 303 -Original Reference: ? 304 - 305 305 ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 306 306 307 -== When 3 PD Arrays fail you 'refucked ==119 +== When 3 PD Arrays fail your fucked == 308 308 309 -"When 3 PD arrays fail you're fucked. It's going the other direction." 310 - 311 -[[image:image22.png]] 312 - 313 -References: 314 - 315 -* [[How To Fail & Not Know It Until It's Too Late>>https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/drunk-monkey7/episodes/How-To-Fail--Not-Know-It-Until-Its-Too-Late---February-22--2023-e1vclf9||style="outline-width: 0px !important; user-select: auto !important;"]] - Feb 2, 2023 (@13m 56s) 316 -* [[Feb 10, 2023 Market Review>>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=STEGBblm4dI]] (@38m 20s) 317 - 318 318 ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 319 319 320 320 == A CLOSE below the swing low that we would see as being a Market Structure Shift, we treat it as a Breaker == 321 321 322 -[[image:image3.png]] 323 - 324 -Original Reference: ? 325 - 326 326 ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 327 327 328 328 == 3 candle price action signature == 329 329 330 -[[image:image53.png]] 331 - 332 -Original Reference: ? 333 - 334 334 ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 335 335 336 336 == Event Horizon == 337 337 338 -Half way between a NWOG and the closest NWOG is the Event Horizon 339 - 340 -It will not allow price to escape the draw to the NWOG and it will create a surge towards the NWOG it got too "close" to but yet reached 341 - 342 -Example 1 343 - 344 -ES 15m 345 - 346 -[[image:image38.png]] 347 - 348 -ES 2m 349 - 350 -[[image:image10.png]] 351 - 352 -Example 2 353 - 354 -ES 15m 355 - 356 -[[image:image52.png]] 357 - 358 -Example 3 359 - 360 -ES 15m 361 - 362 -[[image:image21.png]] 363 - 364 -Original Reference: ? 365 - 366 366 ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 367 367 368 368 == How to avoid taking a low probability FVG == 369 369 370 -How to AVOID taking low probability FVGs using DXY 371 - 372 -[[image:image43.png]] 373 - 374 -Original Reference: ? 375 - 376 376 ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 377 377 378 378 == How far can you trust price to go above BSL or SSL for a Turtle Soup? == 379 379 380 -How far can you trust price to go above BSL or SSL for a Turtle Soup? 381 - 382 -NWOG 383 - 384 -NDOG 385 - 386 -Opening Range Gap 387 - 388 -These are 3 specific tools you can use to answer this question 389 - 390 -[[image:image50.png]] 391 - 392 -Original Reference: ? 393 - 394 394 ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 395 395 396 396 == NWOG Actual and NWOG == 397 397 398 -NWOG Actual = Fridays close to Sundays Open 399 - 400 -NWOG = Fridays close to Mondays Equities Open at 9:30am 401 - 402 -(On a personal note I don't use NWOG from close to Monday 9:30 open. All I use is NWOG Actual and I think that's more than enough) 403 - 404 -[[image:image47.png]] 405 - 406 -Original Reference: ? 407 - 408 408 ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 409 409 410 410 == Macros == 411 411 412 -A macro is a window of time where the algorithm will seek untapped liquidity or an imbalance. You can split your day up into windows of time and only trade these macros! 413 - 414 -You can enter prior to the macro beginning. 415 - 416 -The run will originate inside the macro time but does not have to complete it. It can still deliver after macro close 417 - 418 -The NY session Macros (All NY eastern time): 419 - 420 -9:50-10:10am (MY FAVORITE) 421 - 422 -10:50-11:10 am 423 - 424 -11:50-12:10 pm (l never trade this one...) 425 - 426 -1:30pm Judas 427 - 428 -3:15-3:45 pm "Sweet Spot" 429 - 430 - 431 -As a bonus here are some example of my favorite macro 9:50-10:10: 432 - 433 -Example 1 (ES 1 min) 434 - 435 -SSL swept right at open into Daily C.E level 436 - 437 -MSS+Displacement created FVG and +OB 438 - 439 -SMT with NQ 440 - 441 -Long entry in FVG 442 - 443 -Target most recent high break/ NWOG 444 - 445 -[[image:image12.png]] 446 - 447 -I would also like to add that The RTH gap gave me a soft bullish bias this morning which gave me confidence in tak)ing this long. As you can see we filled it PERFECTLY (ES 15 min 448 - 449 -[[image:image19.png]] 450 - 451 -Example 2 (ES 1 min) 452 - 453 -A couple ES NFP Friday Scalps 454 - 455 -1st: 456 - 457 -LOD sweep + 1H FVG C.E 458 - 459 -Strong Displacement creating FVG 460 - 461 -1m bearish FVG clear DOL 462 - 463 - 464 -2nd: 465 - 466 -Entry off inversion level and +OB 467 - 468 -Scale at new short term high 469 - 470 -Wanted 3916 but stopped B.E on runners 471 - 472 -[[image:image4.png]] 473 - 474 -Example 3 (ES 1 min) 475 - 476 - 477 -Market left REHs at the London High 478 - 479 -Previous Week's low Sell side swept and had a MSS+Displacement (2022 model) 480 - 481 -DXY had a liquidity void to fill below meaning ES 482 - 483 -Long entry in the Unicorn 484 - 485 -[[image:image36.png]] 486 - 487 -DXY 15 min 488 - 489 -[[image:image5.png]] 490 - 491 -Original Reference: ? 492 - 493 493 ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 494 494 495 495 == 10-11am Silver Bullet == 496 496 497 - 498 -Here's something to backtest 499 - 500 -According to ICT, between 10-11am NY time you will find a FVG that delivers 5 handles EVERY day 100% guaranteed 501 - 502 -It'll ALWAYS be there aiming for an opposing pool of liquidity 503 - 504 -You will find it on the 1min, 30s, or 15s timeframe 505 - 506 -This is true even on choppy days and shortened bank holidays where market closes early 507 - 508 -[[image:image29.png]] 509 - 510 -Simply put, the Silver Bullet is always a continuation of whatever is in motion at the time. If you cant determine what is in motion dont take the Silver Bullet. 511 - 512 -When in doubt stay out! 513 - 514 -This tidbit came from the May 6 Twitter space which imo is one of the best/most informative ones he has held... check it out when you get the chance: 515 - 516 -Original Reference: ICT Twitter Space | Time Based Setups & Models | May 6th 2023 517 - 518 518 ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 519 519 520 520 == MSS after 1pm == 521 521 522 -If there is a shift in Market Structure after 1pm, 523 - 524 -Price will most likely run for Lunch and AM Session Buy Stops 525 - 526 -[[image:image41.png]] 527 - 528 -Original Reference: ? 529 - 530 530 ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 531 531 532 532 == How to use NWOG inside of old areas of orderflow == 533 533 534 -[[image:image32.png]] 535 - 536 -ES 5m 537 - 538 -[[image:image8.png]] 539 - 540 -Original Reference: ? 541 - 542 542 ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 543 543 544 544 == Immediate Rebalance == 545 545 546 -If we are bullish and price does this formation it is one of the most powerful signatures for IMMEDIATE dynamic price delivery 547 - 548 -[[image:image40.png]] 549 - 550 -Original Reference: ICT Mentorship 2023 - Immediate Rebalance & Institutional Order Flow 551 - 552 552 ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 553 553 554 554 == Using NWOG to analyze market conditions == 555 555 556 -[[image:image24.png]] 557 - 558 -Original Reference: ? 559 - 560 560 ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 561 561 562 562 == Inversion FVG example == 563 563 564 -If a market closes above a FVG that you think should be bearish, thats not a good shorting opportunity 565 - 566 -Many times its communicating to you it will become an inversion FVG 567 - 568 -$ES example 569 - 570 -[[image:image51.png]] 571 - 572 -Original Reference: ? 573 - 574 574 ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 575 575 576 576 == How to approach the lunch hour when bias/target is clear == 577 577 578 -Price hasn't reached Daily/Weekly Target? Expectation for lunch hour is too look for a 5/15min low or RELs 579 - 580 -If there is a FVG or VIB just underneath that low that is a UNICORN 581 - 582 -[[image:image45.png]] 583 - 584 -Original Reference: ? 585 - 586 586 ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 587 587 588 588 == Seek and Destroy cheat sheet == 589 589 590 -[[image:image48.png]] 591 - 592 -Original Reference: ? 593 - 594 594 ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 595 595 596 596 == Partials at wicks/long tails == 597 597 598 -Whenever there is a wick/long tail inside of the range you are trading in and your position affords it, ALWAYS take a partial at the midpoint (CE) 599 - 600 -Often times price can trade right to the CE of the wick, stop on a dime, consolidate, or straight up reverse. 601 - 602 -[[image:image27.png]] 603 - 604 -Original Reference: ? 605 - 606 606 ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 607 607 608 608 == Understanding Balanced Price Ranges(BPRs) == 609 609 610 -[[image:image7.png]] 611 - 612 -Original Reference: ? 613 - 614 614 ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 615 615 616 616 == More Silver Bullet gems == 617 617 618 -The Silver Bullet FVG does NOT have to happen inside the one hour period. Only the entry does. 619 - 620 -It can refer back to a FVG that formed in the run up if its bullish between 9:30-10am (vice versa) 621 - 622 -There is a macro that begins at 1:30pm that sets the tone and pace for the 2-3pm Silver Bullet. 623 - 624 -Original Reference: ? 625 - 626 626 ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 627 627 628 628 == ICT Glossary of terms == 629 629 630 -BB - Breaker Block 631 - 632 -BISI - Buyside Imbalance Sellside Inefficiency 633 - 634 -BPR - Balanced Price Range 635 - 636 -BRK - Breaker 637 - 638 -BSL - Buyside Liquidity 639 - 640 -CE - {{glossaryReference glossaryId="Glossary" entryId="Consequent Encroachment"}}Consequent Encroachment{{/glossaryReference}} (Inefficiencies Only) 641 - 642 -DOL - Draw on Liquidity 643 - 644 -EQH - Equal Highs 645 - 646 -EQL - Equal Lows 647 - 648 -FVG - Fair Value Gap 649 - 650 -iFVG - Implied Fair Value Gap 651 - 652 -HRLR - High Resistance Liquidity Run 653 - 654 -IDM - Inducement 655 - 656 -{{glossaryReference glossaryId="Glossary" entryId="IOFED"}}IOFED{{/glossaryReference}} - Institutional Orderflow Entry Drill 657 - 658 -LRLR - Low Resistance Liquidity Run 659 - 660 -MB - Mitigation Block 661 - 662 -{{glossaryReference glossaryId="Glossary" entryId="MMBM"}}MMBM{{/glossaryReference}} - Market Maker Buy Model 663 - 664 -{{glossaryReference glossaryId="Glossary" entryId="MMSM"}}MMSM{{/glossaryReference}} - Market Maker Sell Model 665 - 666 -MMXM - Market Maker Model 667 - 668 -MSS - Market Structure Shift 669 - 670 -MT - Mean Threshold (Blocks Only) 671 - 672 -NDOG - New Day Opening Gap 673 - 674 -NFP - Non Farm Payroll 675 - 676 -NWOG - New Week Opening Gap 677 - 678 -OB - Orderblock 679 - 680 -{{glossaryReference glossaryId="Glossary" entryId="OTE"}}OTE{{/glossaryReference}} - Optimal Trade Entry 681 - 682 -PA - Price Action 683 - 684 -PB - Propulsion Block 685 - 686 -PD - Premium / Discount 687 - 688 -PD Array - Any type of ICT entry (FVG, VI, OB etc) 689 - 690 -PDH - Previous Day High 691 - 692 -PDL - Previous Day Low 693 - 694 -PWH - Previous Week High 695 - 696 -PWL - Previous Week Low 697 - 698 -RB - Rejection Block 699 - 700 -SIBI - Sellside Imbalance Buyside Inefficiency 701 - 702 -SSL - Sellside Liquidity 703 - 704 -VI - Volume Imbalance 705 - 706 706 ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ====== 707 - 708 -
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