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Changes for page ICT Mentorship 2023 Gems

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2023-09-04 11:48
From version 10.1
edited by Drunk Monkey
on 2023-09-03 14:09
Change comment: There is no comment for this version
To version 10.4
edited by Drunk Monkey
on 2023-09-03 15:20
Change comment: There is no comment for this version

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1 1  {{box cssClass="box floatinginfobox" title="**Table of Contents**"}}
2 -{{toc depth="2" numbered="true" start="2"/}}
2 +{{toc depth="3" numbered="true" start="2"/}}
3 3  {{/box}}
4 4  
5 -Summarized by [[@SirPickle_>>https://twitter.com/SirPickle_]] as a google document [[here>>https://docs.google.com/document/d/14x_13c98oq3u-FrVWK3Nh9gGLYKzBzgLgBRTdgOBAhs]]
5 +Summarized by [[@SirPickle_>>https://twitter.com/SirPickle_]] as a google document [[here>>https://docs.google.com/document/d/14x_13c98oq3u-FrVWK3Nh9gGLYKzBzgLgBRTdgOBAhs]]
6 6  
7 7  == 1:30 Judas ==
8 8  
... ... @@ -57,107 +57,423 @@
57 57  
58 58  ==== NQ 5m ====
59 59  
60 +* With the idea that price is drawing towards REL (12457.25), we look for a Judas Swing at 1:30pm into a premium PD array.
61 +* Today that PD array was a 5m unicorn (Breaker+ FVG)
62 +
63 +[[image:image49.png]]
64 +
65 +==== NQ 1m ====
66 +
67 +[[image:image33.png]]
68 +
60 60  === Example 6 ===
61 61  
62 62  ==== ES 2m ====
63 63  
73 +* Shorts been in control all week = expect short coverings going into the weekend
74 +* We look for a Judas Swing at 1:30pm into a discount PD Array
75 +* Today that PD array was a Unicorn or even the +OB
76 +* Price will now seek Buyside Liquidity
64 64  
78 +[[image:image44.png]]
79 +
80 +ES 5m
81 +
82 +[[image:image37.png]]
83 +
65 65  ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ======
66 66  
86 +== 3PM Judas Swing ==
87 +
88 +* The same concept can be applied to the 3pm session as well!
89 +* From my personal experience I don't see this one happen as often or even act as reliable as the 1:30 Judas. For that reason I don't have many examples.
90 +
91 +=== Example ===
92 +
93 +==== ES1m ====
94 +
95 +[[image:image14.png]]
96 +
97 +====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ======
98 +
67 67  == New Week Opening Gap (NWOG) ==
68 68  
101 +The New Week Opening Gap is a strong price magnet
102 +
103 +Draw it out every week onto your charts (Friday closing price to Sunday open price)
104 +
105 +The market is going to gravitate back to it IF we are NOT TRENDING and many times become REAL support/resistance
106 +
107 +You should have the last 4 NWOGs + the current week's NWOG on your chart. So 5 in total. Have a separate template for only NWOG.
108 +
109 +Doing so gives you an X-ray view of how the algorithm will refer back to old areas of real FAIR VALUE
110 +
111 +[[image:image6.png]]
112 +
69 69  ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ======
70 70  
71 71  == Understanding what multiple touches of NWOG means ==
72 72  
117 +If we see price come back to the NWOG multiple times intra week you are likely in a consolidation that's going to continue
118 +
119 +[[image:image11.png]]
120 +
73 73  ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ======
74 74  
75 75  == Gaps that don't fill are rocket fuel ==
76 76  
125 +This means price is in a hurry to reprice to a level that's outside the range its in currently (External range liquidity)
126 +
127 +Every time we get in a trade we look for this signature
128 +
77 77  ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ======
78 78  
79 79  == Understanding equilibrium of discount ==
80 80  
133 +Highest probability shorts have been exhausted once we move below equilibrium of DISCOUNT
134 +
135 +[[image:image28.png]]
136 +
81 81  ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ======
82 82  
83 83  == Understanding low probability conditions ==
84 84  
141 +Key Lesson: If you have 2 equally probable outcomes you are trading in low probability conditions and essentially gambling . Sit on the sidelines and demand more information.
142 +
143 +[[image:image42.png]]
144 +
85 85  ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ======
86 86  
87 87  == New Day Opening Gap (NDOG) ==
88 88  
149 +When we open at 6pm, drag a rectangle from the 5pm closing price to the 6pm open
150 +
151 +Extend that throughout the next 12-16 hours. That will act much like you see with the NWOG
152 +
153 +[[image:image16.png]]
154 +
155 +Example of precision with NDOG:
156 +
157 +[[image:image46.png]]
158 +
89 89  ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ======
90 90  
91 91  == Quarter of the wick ==
92 92  
163 +When there is a bearish heavy stance on price, C.E of a wick is likely not to be traded too.
164 +
165 +If you suspect that is the case, you get the very specific price level of one quarter of the wick
166 +
167 +[[image:image2.png]]
168 +
93 93  ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ======
94 94  
95 95  == PM session running AM session Buy stops ==
96 96  
173 +If you see a trending morning session like below, ask yourself where are shorts trailing their stops?
174 +
175 +Expect the PM session to take those stops
176 +
177 +ES 1 min
178 +
179 +[[image:image26.png]]
180 +
97 97  ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ======
98 98  
99 99  == Market on close Macro ==
100 100  
185 +In a up close day rarely do you see the candle close on the high unless its a trending day.
186 +
187 +Typically it creates the intraday HOD then pulls away from it and closes near the high.
188 +
189 +This is the market on close Macro
190 +
191 +[[image:image31.png]]
192 +
101 101  ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ======
102 102  
103 103  == 3:15-3:45 Sweet Spot ==
104 104  
197 +Generally you will find between 3:15-3:45pm a sweet spot to place a trade if we know where we are looking for liquidity.
198 +
199 +Above the market place if bullish
200 +
201 +Below the market place if bearish
202 +
203 +OR
204 +
205 +if there is an imbalance we will look to rebalance it
206 +
207 +The algo will spool to a obvious point of liquidity that had not been targeted yet
208 +
209 +Example
210 +
211 +[[image:image1.png]]
212 +
105 105  ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ======
106 106  
107 107  == The Upper Quarter Concept ==
108 108  
217 +If you believe that you have figured out where the low is in the market for a particular price swing and you think its gonna go up to an old high where BSL is, the equilibrium of that run and below is where the best buy opportunities occur.
218 +
219 +As soon as we get to the upper quarter of where the target is, the market is not likely to go back for sell stops. This is because price will be in a hurry to run out Buy stops in so traders don't get the opportunity for those orders to be pulled.
220 +
221 +ES 2m
222 +
223 +[[image:image18.png]]
224 +
109 109  ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ======
110 110  
111 111  == Regular Trading Hours (RTH) ==
112 112  
229 +When trading futures indices you need to also consider how we closed the previous session and where we opened at 9:30 because that difference is a REAL Liquidity Void. We call it the Opening range gap.
230 +
231 +Price has a tendency to not let these areas stay unfilled for too long.
232 +
233 +At 9:30 open, every single day as an index futures trader you are going to toggle RTH on and identify the Opening Range Gap:
234 +
235 +We are opening up with a Premium if the gap is higher than the previous session close
236 +
237 +We are opening up at a Discount if the gap is lower than the previous session close
238 +
239 +[[image:image30.png]]
240 +
241 +[[image:image34.png]]
242 +
243 +Reviewing the relationship between the Daily VIBs and RTH gap + Understanding opening at a premium/discount of RTH:
244 +
245 +[[image:image9.png]]
246 +
247 +[[image:image25.png]]
248 +
113 113  ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ======
114 114  
115 115  == When to expect Seek and Destroy conditions ==
116 116  
253 +1) On the heels of any holiday that impacts normal trading hours the very next trading session, the morning is likely to be VERY low probability/choppy. The market is more prone to seek and destroy conditions
254 +
255 +(For example on Monday the market is closed due to a bank holiday, expect a choppy AM session going into Tuesday)
256 +
257 +-Let the market fall back to its normalcy
258 +
259 +-Only retail traders are rushing to the markets on a day like this like gamblers at a casino
260 +
261 +2) Higher Time frame target is delivered prior to 9:30 am open expect a choppy AM session
262 +
263 +3) Asia High and Low are raided during the London session. Then London High and Low are raided during NY creating a broadening formation
264 +
117 117  ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ======
118 118  
119 119  == Implied FVG ==
120 120  
269 +How to identify a FVG when there is no "gap" and only overlapping wicks
270 +
271 +[[image:image20.png]]
272 +
121 121  ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ======
122 122  
123 123  == When 3 PD Arrays fail your fucked ==
124 124  
277 +"When 3 PD arrays fail your fucked... it's going the other direction now"
278 +
279 +[[image:image22.png]]
280 +
125 125  ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ======
126 126  
127 127  == A CLOSE below the swing low that we would see as being a Market Structure Shift, we treat it as a Breaker ==
128 128  
285 +[[image:image3.png]]
286 +
129 129  ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ======
130 130  
131 131  == 3 candle price action signature ==
132 132  
291 +[[image:image53.png]]
292 +
133 133  ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ======
134 134  
135 135  == Event Horizon ==
136 136  
297 +Half way between a NWOG and the closest NWOG is the Event Horizon
298 +
299 +It will not allow price to escape the draw to the NWOG and it will create a surge towards the NWOG it got too "close" to but yet reached
300 +
301 +Example 1
302 +
303 +ES 15m
304 +
305 +[[image:image38.png]]
306 +
307 +ES 2m
308 +
309 +[[image:image10.png]]
310 +
311 +Example 2
312 +
313 +ES 15m
314 +
315 +[[image:image52.png]]
316 +
317 +Example 3
318 +
319 +ES 15m
320 +
321 +[[image:image21.png]]
322 +
137 137  ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ======
138 138  
139 139  == How to avoid taking a low probability FVG ==
140 140  
327 +How to AVOID taking low probability FVGs using DXY
328 +
329 +[[image:image43.png]]
330 +
141 141  ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ======
142 142  
143 143  == How far can you trust price to go above BSL or SSL for a Turtle Soup? ==
144 144  
335 +How far can you trust price to go above BSL or SSL for a Turtle Soup?
336 +
337 +NWOG
338 +
339 +NDOG
340 +
341 +Opening Range Gap
342 +
343 +These are 3 specific tools you can use to answer this question
344 +
345 +[[image:image50.png]]
346 +
145 145  ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ======
146 146  
147 147  == NWOG Actual and NWOG ==
148 148  
351 +NWOG Actual = Fridays close to Sundays Open
352 +
353 +NWOG = Fridays close to Mondays Equities Open at 9:30am
354 +
355 +(On a personal note I don't use NWOG from close to Monday 9:30 open. All I use is NWOG Actual and I think that's more than enough)
356 +
357 +[[image:image47.png]]
358 +
149 149  ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ======
150 150  
151 151  == Macros ==
152 152  
363 +A macro is a window of time where the algorithm will seek untapped liquidity or an imbalance. You can split your day up into windows of time and only trade these macros!
364 +
365 +You can enter prior to the macro beginning.
366 +
367 +The run will originate inside the macro time but does not have to complete it. It can still deliver after macro close
368 +
369 +The NY session Macros (All NY eastern time):
370 +
371 +9:50-10:10am (MY FAVORITE)
372 +
373 +10:50-11:10 am
374 +
375 +11:50-12:10 pm (l never trade this one...)
376 +
377 +1:30pm Judas
378 +
379 +3:15-3:45 pm "Sweet Spot"
380 +
381 +
382 +As a bonus here are some example of my favorite macro 9:50-10:10:
383 +
384 +Example 1 (ES 1 min)
385 +
386 +SSL swept right at open into Daily C.E level
387 +
388 +MSS+Displacement created FVG and +OB
389 +
390 +SMT with NQ
391 +
392 +Long entry in FVG
393 +
394 +Target most recent high break/ NWOG
395 +
396 +[[image:image12.png]]
397 +
398 +I would also like to add that The RTH gap gave me a soft bullish bias this morning which gave me confidence in tak)ing this long. As you can see we filled it PERFECTLY (ES 15 min
399 +
400 +[[image:image19.png]]
401 +
402 +Example 2 (ES 1 min)
403 +
404 +A couple ES NFP Friday Scalps
405 +
406 +1st:
407 +
408 +LOD sweep + 1H FVG C.E
409 +
410 +Strong Displacement creating FVG
411 +
412 +1m bearish FVG clear DOL
413 +
414 +
415 +2nd:
416 +
417 +Entry off inversion level and +OB
418 +
419 +Scale at new short term high
420 +
421 +Wanted 3916 but stopped B.E on runners
422 +
423 +[[image:image4.png]]
424 +
425 +Example 3 (ES 1 min)
426 +
427 +
428 +Market left REHs at the London High
429 +
430 +Previous Week's low Sell side swept and had a MSS+Displacement (2022 model)
431 +
432 +DXY had a liquidity void to fill below meaning ES
433 +
434 +Long entry in the Unicorn
435 +
436 +[[image:image36.png]]
437 +
438 +DXY 15 min
439 +
440 +[[image:image5.png]]
441 +
153 153  ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ======
154 154  
155 155  == 10-11am Silver Bullet ==
156 156  
446 +
447 +Here's something to backtest
448 +
449 +According to ICT, between 10-11am NY time you will find a FVG that delivers 5 handles EVERY day 100% guaranteed
450 +
451 +It'll ALWAYS be there aiming for an opposing pool of liquidity
452 +
453 +You will find it on the 1min, 30s, or 15s timeframe
454 +
455 +This is true even on choppy days and shortened bank holidays where market closes early
456 +
457 +[[image:image29.png]]
458 +
459 +Simply put, the Silver Bullet is always a continuation of whatever is in motion at the time. If you cant determine what is in motion dont take the Silver Bullet.
460 +
461 +When in doubt stay out!
462 +
463 +This tidbit came from the May 6 Twitter space which imo is one of the best/most informative ones he has held... check it out when you get the chance:
464 +
465 +ICT Twitter Space | Time Based Setups & Models | May 6th 2023
466 +
157 157  ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ======
158 158  
159 159  == MSS after 1pm ==
160 160  
471 +If there is a shift in Market Structure after 1pm,
472 +
473 +Price will most likely run for Lunch and AM Session Buy Stops
474 +
475 +[[image:image41.png]]
476 +
161 161  ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ======
162 162  
163 163  == How to use NWOG inside of old areas of orderflow ==
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199 199  == ICT Glossary of terms ==
200 200  
201 201  ====== ~[[[top>>path:#]]] ======
518 +
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