1 | 00:00:12,210 --> 00:00:22,410 | ICT: Welcome back, folks, this is lesson four, with five February 2017 content for the ICT mentorship. This month's topic is swing trading. And we're gonna be |
2 | 00:00:22,410 --> 00:00:26,520 | specifically teaching high probability swing trade setups in bull markets. |
3 | 00:00:34,110 --> 00:00:45,210 | Okay, as a reminder, when we're looking at price, we have to think algorithmic and we have to refer to the PD array matrix. So without going into great detail, |
4 | 00:00:45,240 --> 00:00:54,330 | because of study purposes only, I'm including this slide, because I don't know when you're gonna be watching this video again, so be mindful that we're looking |
5 | 00:00:54,360 --> 00:01:11,640 | for these arrays in deference to the premium or discount spectrum. Okay, bullish monthly, weekly daily sequential. Okay, monthly charts, when you're looking at |
6 | 00:01:11,640 --> 00:01:20,310 | the monthly charts of the asset class that you're studying or doing your analysis on, what you're looking for is a discount array that has shown to |
7 | 00:01:20,310 --> 00:01:30,120 | induce buying, and it's going to be evidenced by price moving higher. In other words, we're looking for displacement off of a discernible discount array, that |
8 | 00:01:30,120 --> 00:01:40,080 | means it could have been a bullish order block, it could have been a old low an old high, it could have reacted after closing in a fair value gap or void or it |
9 | 00:01:40,080 --> 00:01:51,450 | could be bouncing off of a breaker. Okay, on the weekly chart, you're looking for the same thing. Just want to lower timeframe, we're outlying discount |
10 | 00:01:51,480 --> 00:02:04,050 | arrays, and we're looking for a discount array that has shown a willingness to induce buying and that's going to be again evidenced by price moving higher the |
11 | 00:02:04,050 --> 00:02:14,580 | daily chart much in the same way we're looking for discount arrays to show evidence that there are buying in the marketplace that you're under study and |
12 | 00:02:14,640 --> 00:02:25,500 | it's going to be seen with moving higher in price. In all timeframes down candles provide new support to price and little to no weaknesses seem. |
13 | 00:02:31,620 --> 00:02:40,950 | Okay when the monthly is bullish in order to we have displacement price has already moved higher, the weekly has done so as well and the daily has done so. |
14 | 00:02:42,420 --> 00:02:49,830 | Know what you can see displacement or a rally or an impulse swing on all timeframes the monthly weekly and daily. This is the procedure gonna be looking |
15 | 00:02:50,220 --> 00:03:00,870 | to follow by all daily bullish discount arrays is a bullish mitigation block, bullish breaker liquidity void fair value gap, bullish order block rejection |
16 | 00:03:00,870 --> 00:03:14,400 | block and or a old low or high and you're going to be buying for our bullish discount arrays that are equivalent to those that are listed here. Now when the |
17 | 00:03:14,430 --> 00:03:22,740 | monthly, weekly and daily are all indicating higher prices, that means it's making higher highs and higher lows, it's an obvious uptrend. You're gonna be |
18 | 00:03:22,740 --> 00:03:31,080 | looking for daily and for our discount arrays to trade every single time it trades down to them. We're expecting we're anticipating bullishness, we're |
19 | 00:03:31,080 --> 00:03:36,030 | anticipating an injection of buying volatility, so the expansion should be on the upside. |
20 | 00:03:41,280 --> 00:03:49,650 | Now for conditions where the monthly has shown a willingness to go higher or displacement, or impulse price swing has been seen, the weekly has shown an |
21 | 00:03:49,650 --> 00:03:58,770 | impulse swing higher as well. But now say the daily chart is under correction. We don't see an impulse swing higher. It's actually coming low. It's trading |
22 | 00:03:58,770 --> 00:04:08,970 | lower now, what will we do in this conditions? Well, you're gonna be buying daily bullish discount arrays at or nested in weekly discount arrays. So when we |
23 | 00:04:08,970 --> 00:04:22,950 | see bullish order blocks or if we see liquidity voids or mitigation blocks below current market action, they may occur at an area at a nested weekly bullish or |
24 | 00:04:22,950 --> 00:04:35,760 | block may be seen or a weekly liquidity void or fair value gap. So we're gonna be looking for daily bullish discount arrays at or inside a level that we'll be |
25 | 00:04:35,760 --> 00:04:45,000 | seeing from a weekly discount array. So we're gonna be coupling the higher timeframe levels they may be overlapping or having a confluence of levels when |
26 | 00:04:45,000 --> 00:04:54,030 | the monthly and weekly are bullish, but the daily is correcting lower. All indications on the daily chart would look like probably a bear market or a steep |
27 | 00:04:54,030 --> 00:05:04,890 | correction lower. All we're gonna be doing is in these conditions we're gonna be looking at discount array As on a daily at or inside nested weekly discount |
28 | 00:05:04,890 --> 00:05:16,230 | arrays. And we'll buy for our bullish discount arrays at daily and or nested weekly bullish discount arrays. In other words, all this is saying is on the |
29 | 00:05:16,230 --> 00:05:27,060 | daily and the four hour, we're gonna look for bullish order blocks, bullish breakers, fair value guests below the market price, liquidity voids to close in |
30 | 00:05:27,060 --> 00:05:39,930 | on the range, basically optimal trade entry. And we're gonna be doing that at levels that are seen on the weekly chart. And it may nest with an old daily |
31 | 00:05:41,430 --> 00:05:55,440 | discount array, but it doesn't have to, primarily we're gonna be looking for a level on a weekly to trade at when to avoid buying discount arrays on the daily? |
32 | 00:05:55,830 --> 00:06:05,790 | Well, if you see a daily post a higher high and then it's rejected and it breaks down with its market structure. You're probably looking at a development of a |
33 | 00:06:05,790 --> 00:06:21,450 | bearish breaker and you do not want to be buying against that type of condition. So that would negate this bullish monthly weekly daily sequential Okay, when the |
34 | 00:06:21,450 --> 00:06:33,840 | monthly is bullish, and the weekly is correcting, and the daily is correcting will be still buying daily bullish discount arrays at or nested in a monthly |
35 | 00:06:33,870 --> 00:06:42,720 | discount array. That means there may be a monthly bullish order block that is trading down into or it's trading to close in a monthly liquidity void or fair |
36 | 00:06:42,720 --> 00:06:50,520 | value gap. Or maybe trading back to an old high or an old low. But we're going to be getting our information from the monthly chart. So while the weekly and |
37 | 00:06:50,520 --> 00:06:59,100 | daily may look bearish, if the monthly still has its conditions, it showed a displacement higher that means on a longer timeframe. They're bullish they've |
38 | 00:06:59,100 --> 00:07:06,960 | been buying. All it's requiring is the weekly and the daily to retrace lower to get another long term buying opportunity. And that's what you'll be focusing on |
39 | 00:07:06,960 --> 00:07:17,310 | by looking at nested or monthly discount arrays trading only those buying at that level. And we can buy for our bullish discount arrays at weekly and or |
40 | 00:07:17,310 --> 00:07:30,030 | nested monthly bullish discount arrays. Avoid buying weekly discounted rates if the Weekly has just posted a higher high and rejected that price high. And |
41 | 00:07:30,030 --> 00:07:37,380 | you're probably seeing a bearish breaker on a weekly chart and you don't want to be trading in this monthly, weekly daily sequential in that condition. |
42 | 00:07:42,240 --> 00:07:49,350 | Okay, so let's take a look at this example. We're gonna be looking at Silver. And we're gonna outline some of these ideas and give you some examples on what |
43 | 00:07:49,350 --> 00:07:57,930 | this looks like for high probability swing trading. Okay, folks, we're looking at the monthly chart of silver. Now, I'm going to take some Liberty here, |
44 | 00:07:58,230 --> 00:08:09,450 | because I'm pretty confident that the majority of your listening that are in this mentorship, been aware that I've been calling for silver to be bullish, |
45 | 00:08:09,630 --> 00:08:21,030 | okay. I was expecting bullishness back in 2015. And also expected some bullishness around that 1600 level after the retracement that was seen in 2016. |
46 | 00:08:21,120 --> 00:08:30,000 | But with that said and noted, I want you to take a look at the monthly chart here. And we're gonna outline some things. Now I'm going to assume for a moment |
47 | 00:08:31,380 --> 00:08:42,300 | that you're going to permit me the liberty of discussing this without having to hide all of the price action, I'm gonna hang my hat on the fact that I was |
48 | 00:08:42,300 --> 00:08:50,010 | already expecting these things. And you know about it, we already talked about it in advance. So we're not going to have to do additional work in hiding things |
49 | 00:08:50,010 --> 00:09:00,420 | because they were already in the content shared before the fact in terms of expecting higher prices on silver. But when we're looking at Silver, okay, I |
50 | 00:09:00,420 --> 00:09:18,210 | want you to take a look at what we have done historically, in the last 10 years or so. We had a really big run up in 2009 2011. And we saw price break away in |
51 | 00:09:18,210 --> 00:09:29,880 | here. We've had a really huge surge in silver, their price came all the way back down and closed in that area, that little gap in here. That's what price came |
52 | 00:09:29,880 --> 00:09:39,360 | down and hit. Okay, so we're gonna be mindful that we can see the historical reference point which caused this load of form. And why I was looking for silver |
53 | 00:09:39,360 --> 00:09:50,070 | to be bullish back then anyway, but Is this our range or determination? Are we in a market profile that's trending or are we in a consolidation? Obviously, |
54 | 00:09:50,070 --> 00:10:03,960 | there's been a rather large displacement this swing high has been violated here, and this occurred back in June. 2016 April. So April broke that swing high here |
55 | 00:10:03,960 --> 00:10:20,280 | that was a nice big displacement higher. So there was a big move into silver in 2015, and we carried over into 2016 price comes back down, consolidates and has |
56 | 00:10:20,280 --> 00:10:37,470 | another expansion here, trades all the way back up into these highs. Now we have created a range, we have this low to this high. Now we know all during this time |
57 | 00:10:37,470 --> 00:10:47,820 | period, which we were bullish on silver nonetheless anyway. So we have monthly breaking market structure, big displacement in price, we even took out another |
58 | 00:10:47,850 --> 00:10:58,050 | swing high back here. So monthly is bullish. Okay, even while it's all correcting lower here, all these down candles, this high been broken, big |
59 | 00:10:58,050 --> 00:11:08,190 | displays, not the 1400 level. And we broke market structure on this high here as well. So we have a bullish monthly. Okay, so we're going to outline a few things |
60 | 00:11:08,190 --> 00:11:25,410 | on this chart. I'm just gonna use horizontal lines here to save some time and make things easy to see. Alright, so we have the 1560 level, the last big down |
61 | 00:11:25,410 --> 00:11:34,320 | candle and here, the actual high. And so to be fair, and let you know what it is the high comes in it 1556. So if we're above price, we look forward to get to |
62 | 00:11:34,320 --> 00:11:43,140 | the nearest round number, which would be a 60 level, you can expect to get down into 50, the market price is above your level you're looking for you want to be |
63 | 00:11:43,440 --> 00:11:54,090 | conservative and in China, not expect that exact level to be hit. So we're having 60 level here, it could be 15 ad, it could have been used as well. But |
64 | 00:11:55,230 --> 00:12:08,310 | nonetheless, we'll drop down until weekly chart and see the importance of all that. And we have our high back here. So we have our low, but we're going to |
65 | 00:12:08,310 --> 00:12:17,880 | stick at 1400. Because that was the level of keyed off of and it's not that big of a difference in terms of where we're looking for we have a range defined |
66 | 00:12:17,880 --> 00:12:18,180 | here. |
67 | 00:12:19,679 --> 00:12:26,939 | And I'm going to take the shaded area off. Because we've already arrived at we are in a trending environment because it's wanting to move higher. It's not like |
68 | 00:12:27,239 --> 00:12:37,079 | sitting in this little tile consolidation here, it really moved on the monthly. So there's big money flowing into silver, and has been since 2015. Okay, here we |
69 | 00:12:37,079 --> 00:12:52,259 | are with the silver chart on a weekly basis. And here's that move away from that 1400 area. And here's our 1560 level, anticipating a move to that level for the |
70 | 00:12:52,259 --> 00:13:02,879 | monthly bullish order block. But now look what we have, we have another level in here for the weekly. So you have one, two down candles right before a nice big |
71 | 00:13:02,879 --> 00:13:16,319 | surge in price. So this level begins at the high. And we would use the opening on this candle as a conservative price point as well. But we're going to be |
72 | 00:13:16,319 --> 00:13:26,879 | fair, this used to high and it also puts us below these candles bodies back here. We'll refer to that in a couple minutes. But look at the price out comes |
73 | 00:13:26,879 --> 00:13:40,589 | down hits this level here. Okay, right in here. Now think about what we were seeing here, we have the monthly breaking a short term high and price rallying |
74 | 00:13:40,739 --> 00:13:51,839 | higher through and then and the weekly starts trading lower in the same time that we expect the monthly to send price higher. So while there's a retracement |
75 | 00:13:51,839 --> 00:14:04,589 | lower on the weekly chart, while the monthly is bullish, what we do is we wait for price to trade back down into a level that was discerned by the monthly |
76 | 00:14:04,949 --> 00:14:17,039 | because a while monthly is bullish, we're seeing weekly prices trading softer. And price comes back down into a weekly bullish order block which is the last |
77 | 00:14:17,039 --> 00:14:26,639 | few down candles in here. So we can highlight that because now on a weekly chart, we can see this level becomes a valid order block. We can keep that level |
78 | 00:14:26,639 --> 00:14:41,729 | at 1560. But just to keep things clear, I'm just gonna adjust as we go. So we have this level here. Price hits it reacts aggressively, and then price trades |
79 | 00:14:41,729 --> 00:14:51,329 | all the way up into making that high. And then we have since seeing that monthly chart correcting. Now just because the monthly charts correcting doesn't mean it |
80 | 00:14:51,329 --> 00:15:00,929 | hasn't changed its underlying bullishness. But look at the weekly chart. The weekly chart is moving lower. So now we have a monthly weekly Daly sequential |
81 | 00:15:00,929 --> 00:15:12,359 | where the monthly is bullish. And the weekly is bearish. And it goes without saying that the daily would be bearish in here as well. But you would be |
82 | 00:15:12,359 --> 00:15:26,399 | expecting price to trade back down into a monthly level. So we have all these down moves in the weekly. The sequential says for monthly, weekly and daily if |
83 | 00:15:26,399 --> 00:15:42,419 | the weekly is bearish while the monthly is bullish, you have to wait for price to trade back down into what a monthly discount, right? That was the 1560 level |
84 | 00:15:42,419 --> 00:15:56,819 | that we identified price trades down into that 1560 level. Low comes in 1560 and rallies away. Notice also it trades down below an old low and rejection block |
85 | 00:15:56,819 --> 00:16:07,409 | below the bodies of these candles, trades through it takes another short term low here. So there's sellside liquidity and a gap between price moving up from |
86 | 00:16:07,409 --> 00:16:19,619 | here, left it open because it didn't go down all the way to this level again, on this low. So closing that gap and price surged away. What we're going to do is |
87 | 00:16:19,619 --> 00:16:31,979 | we're gonna look at in this timeframe here from the formation of the high all the way down to this level here, we're going to drop down into a daily timeframe |
88 | 00:16:32,009 --> 00:16:39,089 | and we're going to use the monthly weekly and daily sequential. Okay, so we have the daily chart here you can see how it's been trading lower, lower, lower, |
89 | 00:16:39,089 --> 00:16:51,659 | lower, lower, and until it hits that monthly bullish order block. We don't see the reaction that we would expect for bullishness, but we did keep seeing lower |
90 | 00:16:51,659 --> 00:17:06,209 | prices here. You can be a buyer. Okay, on this, regardless of it being correcting lower, okay, when the monthly is bullish, and the weekly and daily |
91 | 00:17:06,209 --> 00:17:18,569 | are bearish, you're going to wait for your best opportunity to trade down to the monthly level if the monthly is bullish, and the weekly is bullish. |
92 | 00:17:19,950 --> 00:17:30,510 | Okay, and let's go back out to a weekly chart, price is trading down into that monthly level and it's also inside of a weekly bullish order block as well. So |
93 | 00:17:30,510 --> 00:17:41,280 | now we have the monthly chart and the weekly chart and agreement. So now we can look at the daily chart when it's in correction or going lower, we trading off |
94 | 00:17:41,280 --> 00:17:52,620 | of a weekly and or monthly nested order block to be a buyer on daily timeframe. And every time price trades down into the down candles on a daily chart we can |
95 | 00:17:52,620 --> 00:18:02,130 | be a buyer because we have monthly and weekly in alignment. The discount array for monthly and weekly are supporting price or we anticipate that they are |
96 | 00:18:02,310 --> 00:18:13,350 | supporting price or that they will support price. So as price starts to make higher highs, okay, we note every down candle. Okay and I'm going to do that |
97 | 00:18:13,350 --> 00:18:32,190 | now. And this is just to illustrate when prices careening down candles, you want to be noting them and what it'll do is it'll give you |
98 | 00:18:37,380 --> 00:18:48,060 | all of the now we have a new one from yesterday or Thursday rather. And we also have to note the openings of the candles |
99 | 00:19:14,310 --> 00:19:23,520 | Okay, anything more, I think would be overkill. So we have our levels here, where we do expect to see bullishness and they're not zones, okay, their |
100 | 00:19:23,520 --> 00:19:31,560 | specific price levels, the openings and the highs on the down candles as we're looking at. So now at this moment, we're going to take our little shaded area |
101 | 00:19:31,590 --> 00:19:44,790 | off and we'll create another shaded area right from this low and to present time, okay, so now we're gonna drop down into our executable timeframe, which is |
102 | 00:19:44,790 --> 00:19:54,510 | the four hour Okay, so we have all of our daily highs are down candle and the openings on those down candles. And the same thing is done. Now also on the four |
103 | 00:19:54,510 --> 00:20:02,910 | hour time frame, you're gonna see how amazing the precision is on this because what we've done is we've you Use the sequential for monthly weekly and daily and |
104 | 00:20:02,910 --> 00:20:13,800 | use those ideas with the pdra matrix only buying on discount and I'll show you what that looks like also by applying a tool but look at all of the down candles |
105 | 00:20:14,400 --> 00:20:25,650 | okay all the down candles right before a big surge in price we're going to put it with horizontal lines in here so it just stands out and pops off the chart |
106 | 00:20:28,710 --> 00:20:31,950 | okay, we had this down candle price hits it rallies |
107 | 00:20:43,380 --> 00:20:53,010 | do down candles in here using the bodies not the wick? It's it rallies okay down candle right in here. It's it trades away creates a new high |
108 | 00:21:10,890 --> 00:21:24,480 | Okay, we have this down candle here. It rallies through creates a new high trades down into it. But Southside liquidity would be where back here. It |
109 | 00:21:24,480 --> 00:21:33,720 | wouldn't hit your stop and I got yet to find a trade around those ideas. Again, this is swing trading folks. It's not day trading. So we have a level that's |
110 | 00:21:33,720 --> 00:21:45,690 | traded. At this point here. It rallies does it create a new high? No actually fails. So now we had to wait for price to trade back down into what? The daily |
111 | 00:21:45,990 --> 00:21:54,660 | look at the reaction here. Remember this little hyphenated lines, they're not elongated horizontal lines I'm showing you here with the blue lines, the blue |
112 | 00:21:54,660 --> 00:22:03,540 | lines I'm highlighting there for our these little hyphenated or shortened trend lines, okay, they're the daily bullet shorter blocks, or down candles at the |
113 | 00:22:03,540 --> 00:22:13,110 | highs or their openings. Look how price trades down through the bullish order block that would be seen on the four hour here. It violates it here. But what's |
114 | 00:22:13,110 --> 00:22:22,110 | it do? It only comes back down to what the daily look at the sensitivity there boom explodes. Okay? Price rallies up consolidates a little bit here and then |
115 | 00:22:22,110 --> 00:22:32,400 | rallies away. So now once we have this rally through liquid, it's done. It's broke a high. Okay, so it's confirmed that has done what? It's broken a high, so |
116 | 00:22:32,400 --> 00:22:45,030 | therefore there's real buying going on. So now we can go back and look at the candles in here on a four hour basis. We have one right there. Okay, but it |
117 | 00:22:45,030 --> 00:22:55,140 | doesn't get down to it. But it does trade back down into the daily bullish order block. And that's what you see there price hits it rallies away. We have a small |
118 | 00:22:55,140 --> 00:23:10,020 | little bullish order block. Right there last down candle price comes down, hits it here rallies away and creates a higher high. So now we're going to look for |
119 | 00:23:10,020 --> 00:23:20,790 | what we're going to look for the down candle prior to this high being broken up, go back down, what do you see, you see this down candle right in here. And it's |
120 | 00:23:20,790 --> 00:23:31,860 | also a order block on the daily basis. So price comes down, hits that level, and then boom, you get that surge this was that last little bit on Friday, as my I |
121 | 00:23:31,860 --> 00:23:41,400 | told you, I thought that we'd get to that at 100 level on silver. And that was the catalyst for it all. Okay. Now, you can see quickly why I do not share my |
122 | 00:23:41,400 --> 00:23:52,770 | charts like this every single time I do analysis because when I do my analysis, I have this number of lines on here. Now obviously, as you go through and you |
123 | 00:23:52,770 --> 00:24:03,660 | start moving away, I mean, you wouldn't have this or this or any of the other levels below it and keep your charts rather clean and keep the most close |
124 | 00:24:03,660 --> 00:24:12,150 | proximity levels on your chart. But by having these levels in mind, you know where the price may reach for and when you go back and you watch all my old |
125 | 00:24:12,150 --> 00:24:19,530 | stuff. Even back when I was on baby pips when I was saying that I was expecting a certain level to be sensitive. It was all of these types of things being |
126 | 00:24:19,530 --> 00:24:29,160 | employed. Now again, I'm taking liberty here and saying that, yeah, I can talk about this market, like I am doing here. And for someone that has never had an |
127 | 00:24:29,160 --> 00:24:37,740 | exposure to me or hasn't been paying attention to me in the last year or so. About silver being bullish. This would look like cherry picking hindsight all |
128 | 00:24:37,740 --> 00:24:52,800 | that business. Okay, but we've talked about silver I actually gave you on a daily timeframe. When we do our recaps and daily entries you can actually see me |
129 | 00:24:52,800 --> 00:25:00,360 | drawing the levels here saying I want to see price stay above that level here. And you know, we had a level here that I noted I said I wanted to see price the |
130 | 00:25:00,360 --> 00:25:10,560 | above that. And all these levels are in your charts. And when we talked about silver, we looked at 1800. I was talking about 1800 for a while, and also talked |
131 | 00:25:10,560 --> 00:25:25,050 | about being interested in being a buyer at 1600 Months and months ago, you know, and even though we traded down to a low of 1566, look at the sensitivity, if you |
132 | 00:25:25,050 --> 00:25:40,860 | look at the 1600 level, you look at 1600. I mean, it's pretty much to buy. And you see that big, big move up. So $10,000 worth of profit potential there. If |
133 | 00:25:40,860 --> 00:25:49,770 | you're, if you're looking to be a buyer at that 16 102 Present Levels. Now, if you look at the metals market, in the futures contracts, 1800 was actually hit |
134 | 00:25:49,770 --> 00:25:54,450 | who actually went above it, I think it's 18 or two, I think it was the intraday high on Friday. So |
135 | 00:25:55,950 --> 00:26:10,260 | when we take our setups off of these ideas, okay, what we're looking for is, okay, we have a range at which we want to see price trade from. And we know that |
136 | 00:26:10,260 --> 00:26:20,430 | there are levels on the monthly and there's levels on our weekly chart and his levels on our daily chart. And we key off of those and reduce the risk with the |
137 | 00:26:20,430 --> 00:26:30,030 | four hour chart. But when we're looking at price like this, and it's trading off that level here, we have to go and refer back to our range. Okay, so we have our |
138 | 00:26:30,030 --> 00:26:39,450 | range up here, high in the low which we anticipate seeing bullishness and rallying away, price shows that willingness to rally. But as we look for price |
139 | 00:26:39,960 --> 00:26:50,580 | to go higher, not only are we buying every down candle, or we'll buy below an old low, like price trades down below and on low and here, that's a discount |
140 | 00:26:50,610 --> 00:27:00,060 | array that's buying below an old low. So you pick up sell stops in the form of a Counterparty for you as a buyer. And price runs away from that. So you're always |
141 | 00:27:00,060 --> 00:27:08,460 | looking for where the short term lows are, where price could dip down below it and buy that. And there's no real waterblock playing here. So as price drops |
142 | 00:27:08,460 --> 00:27:16,320 | down, it's natural to expect this whole scenario. That's why sometimes you'll hear me say, I think that we're probably going to sweep down below an old low, |
143 | 00:27:16,380 --> 00:27:25,560 | like, for instance, what I talked about for Friday's intraday price action for the British pound USD pair, expected that low to be violated and rejected and |
144 | 00:27:25,560 --> 00:27:33,180 | we'd see higher prices. While it didn't get all the way up to the actual highs. It did give a nice bounce intraday, which is all based on the ideas that I'm |
145 | 00:27:33,180 --> 00:27:40,020 | showing you here, you have to have an understanding of where price should be drawn to. And we're seeing that on a monthly chart for silver. And on a weekly |
146 | 00:27:40,020 --> 00:27:51,150 | chart, we saw our levels react. And we, when we see this, we have to keep in mind that there's going to be the premium arrays where you have to aim for. In |
147 | 00:27:51,150 --> 00:28:00,540 | other words, they're going to be catalysts for you having resistance in your trades, coming to profitability. And this is why we had this level over here |
148 | 00:28:00,690 --> 00:28:01,830 | 1799. |
149 | 00:28:07,619 --> 00:28:18,359 | I think it's 1798, wasn't it? Yeah, 1798 was the level a hit that on Friday, beautifully, we have a liquidity void in here price trades up into closed in |
150 | 00:28:18,359 --> 00:28:31,319 | that. That was the first objective. Okay. And then after this, we have a little bit more of this void in here. But now think about what we have done. We have to |
151 | 00:28:31,319 --> 00:28:41,789 | consider what what negates our trades if we see a breaker. So we have a down candle right before another higher high than it's rejected. So we have this |
152 | 00:28:41,789 --> 00:28:52,409 | range in here this low. That's the reason why I called this level here because if you look at the low, it comes in at 1797. Even if it monkeys around just |
153 | 00:28:52,559 --> 00:29:01,109 | expands a little bit, which is what I was looking for the 80 100 level for. But it's that level and this level here. And that's why I was drawn that line out |
154 | 00:29:01,109 --> 00:29:10,439 | because this is a breaker in here, it made a higher high and failed, rejected and broke down. So we only look for this initially to go higher. Now we'll wait |
155 | 00:29:10,439 --> 00:29:17,339 | and see if the daily chart has a willingness to go higher. If it does, then we'll know that we're probably going to be looking for the 1920s and 20 twos and |
156 | 00:29:17,339 --> 00:29:26,789 | they're on keep on going higher, but we would use the monthly and weekly premium raised to arrive at what the next level would be. But while we're trading off of |
157 | 00:29:26,789 --> 00:29:35,159 | the daily and or for our each one of these charts back in here, when it bounced, you have this liquidity void that you would be looking to see filled in, okay, |
158 | 00:29:35,159 --> 00:29:42,179 | and that closes in at this candles low right here because this is the last candle wait for a down move. So that's where the selling really started |
159 | 00:29:42,179 --> 00:29:50,039 | happening at that point. You see price hits essentially right here and then pauses, creates a buying opportunity again. And then price comes down into that |
160 | 00:29:50,039 --> 00:30:00,569 | candle here, here all in the range of this body and then rallies away and one more time dips into here and then moves away. Now it took some Several months |
161 | 00:30:00,569 --> 00:30:10,139 | for this, this metal to trade up to that level. But that's swing trading, it's not overnight, it's not intraday, it takes several days. That's why we have a |
162 | 00:30:10,139 --> 00:30:19,109 | time horizon of two weeks or longer, but preferably two weeks to about a month, that's about usually when you'll see these trades pan out. So hopefully, this |
163 | 00:30:19,109 --> 00:30:27,209 | has been a little bit more insightful than just talking about things in general terms, like the teachings, I know some of you are just chomping at the bit, you |
164 | 00:30:27,209 --> 00:30:35,819 | just want to have practical application. But you can't have practical application without having theory. So I'm using examples. And Marcus, I already |
165 | 00:30:35,819 --> 00:30:43,829 | called beforehand, I'm showing you how I use this stuff, going into this particular pairs and these metals, and told you why I believe they were going to |
166 | 00:30:43,829 --> 00:30:51,089 | go to that level. Now you have the background behind it, what was the catalyst behind it. And when you do as you go through your charts, and you note all of |
167 | 00:30:51,089 --> 00:30:59,429 | the discount arrays, and you look for those, those buying opportunities to get you in sync with what you saw on the monthly and the weekly, and the daily, and |
168 | 00:30:59,429 --> 00:31:07,679 | you can reduce down to a four hour chart for Swing Trading, and really refine all of the levels down to a smaller timeframe. So it keeps your risk small. Even |
169 | 00:31:07,679 --> 00:31:16,019 | if you are off the trading desk, intraday, you know what you have a job or running a business, you can use a four hour chart, okay, just check your charts |
170 | 00:31:16,199 --> 00:31:22,709 | a couple times a day, and you only have to check it like an hour before the kill zones. And then you have all kinds of opportunities where you can reduce the |
171 | 00:31:22,709 --> 00:31:30,479 | risk or look for liquidity pools, the key off of and you don't have to really be a day trader. But it's not necessarily though, you can just trade right off the |
172 | 00:31:30,479 --> 00:31:44,489 | four hour chart and be fine with that as well. Okay, I'm gonna show you how you can apply a tool in Mt four. You're gonna go to Fibonacci expansion, and click |
173 | 00:31:44,489 --> 00:31:58,259 | on that. And we're going to measure a range, so we can keep it in terms of our defining of a PDE array matrix. So they were low, up to our high dropout rate on |
174 | 00:31:58,259 --> 00:32:13,979 | the high end, you're going to drag that back down into the low you just pulled from. Okay, so you have to 100 level, the high and the zero low, which is the |
175 | 00:32:13,979 --> 00:32:20,639 | low, you're always going to draw it this way. It's never going to be inverted. Like you could do a Fibonacci and all that business. Like a retracement type |
176 | 00:32:20,639 --> 00:32:28,169 | thing. That's not how you do this. Okay, what you're doing is you're anchoring from a low up to a high and drag down the second line back down to that anchor |
177 | 00:32:28,169 --> 00:32:43,739 | point. Okay, so it's gonna look like this every time a small little triangle, if you will, to the right. Okay, so we have several levels in here indicated. And |
178 | 00:32:43,739 --> 00:32:57,719 | we'll show you what they look like go into the expansion properties. And this is how they are. You have the point three, Fibonacci extension 30. The one level |
179 | 00:32:57,719 --> 00:33:06,179 | which is going to be the 100 level. Okay, you just double click on No area, if you wanna make any changes, change it to whatever you want to classify it. Point |
180 | 00:33:06,179 --> 00:33:08,369 | 20 point 80. |
181 | 00:33:12,180 --> 00:33:22,200 | Point 90, zero, and point five, which is equilibrium. And if you ever want to this is Adela, we're going to click on that type in the numbers I just gave you, |
182 | 00:33:22,380 --> 00:33:33,870 | and type it in over here, what you want to use as your descriptor, and then okay. And there you go. Okay, so we have the equilibrium price point here. |
183 | 00:33:35,190 --> 00:33:50,580 | Everything north or above it would be the premium PD arrays. And from equilibrium below, down to the zero level is your discount PD arrays focusing on |
184 | 00:33:50,880 --> 00:34:03,390 | the range defined here, that way you can then work out where your premium arrays are and what your discount rates are. So let's do that here. You can see how all |
185 | 00:34:03,390 --> 00:34:16,920 | this stuff outlines price pretty efficiently. Okay, we're gonna make this. Now you don't need to do this, I'm just showing you to illustrate graphically. |
186 | 00:34:17,370 --> 00:34:28,020 | Because I know some of you need to see these types of things to make it easy to understand. So you have basically RPD array matrix in actual price, you can see |
187 | 00:34:28,020 --> 00:34:40,680 | how price comes down into the 30 level. That is basically a deep discount. The deepest discount is 20. I don't like to see anything less than 20 and premium at |
188 | 00:34:40,680 --> 00:34:51,360 | 80. Deep, deep or very expensive, if you will, premium at the 90 level and I don't like to see any new Long's in these levels here. And I don't like to take |
189 | 00:34:51,360 --> 00:35:08,580 | any new shorts down here. So if we take our chart and move on over to after we take off our levels now, we can go into the weekly. Now notice what this is done |
190 | 00:35:08,580 --> 00:35:18,540 | for you. Okay, you have all of these retracements, lower, lower, lower, lower. Okay, on a weekly timeframe, you have a small little bullish order block right |
191 | 00:35:18,540 --> 00:35:30,840 | in here. Okay? Did it pop a little bit, but it did make a new high. Why look where we're at, we're in the premium side of the marketplace on a monthly. So |
192 | 00:35:30,840 --> 00:35:45,630 | our range defined on a monthly basis, up here, bullish Otterbox are not going to be as favorable as if they were down here. Down candles comes down until it hits |
193 | 00:35:45,630 --> 00:35:58,740 | it by the algorithm is allowing price get down into a discount. So traders on an institutional basis can pile on their lungs, then price will expand and go into |
194 | 00:35:58,740 --> 00:36:14,670 | a premium. If we look at the marketplace in terms of the weekly, okay, and we look for price to come all the way back down into a level of that 1560 level. |
195 | 00:36:15,120 --> 00:36:26,010 | Remember, I had that on a monthly basis, that weekly waterblock. Here, even if we weren't looking at the monthly, you can see the importance of having this in |
196 | 00:36:26,010 --> 00:36:33,870 | your charts. Or at least having it understood in your charts, you don't have to draw it out. Initially, you may need to do this need to put lipstick on your |
197 | 00:36:33,870 --> 00:36:42,120 | chart to show like this. But over time, you will see clearly you'll need to do it and you'll know where the premium and discount spectrums are in relative |
198 | 00:36:42,120 --> 00:36:49,980 | terms to the current trading range you're working on. But look at the market trades off of this level. Now I took it to get down into discount to do this. |
199 | 00:36:50,970 --> 00:36:59,940 | And price rallies up rather aggressively. Now we're back into the premium side of the spectrum, we can go down to a daily timeframe also. And this is |
200 | 00:37:06,780 --> 00:37:18,810 | okay, you can see how price responds again, off the order blocks that are inside of the discount spectrum. And all of the order blocks on the premium side of the |
201 | 00:37:18,810 --> 00:37:27,720 | range. You can see how they while they did cause a little bit of buying opportunities in here they have small little pops, they are not as strong as |
202 | 00:37:27,720 --> 00:37:37,620 | they would be is a trader taking them down inside of the lower end of the spectrum for the discount side. So you're looking for the range at which price |
203 | 00:37:37,620 --> 00:37:50,280 | traded in. And when you're up here, the buy side is going to be hard to pan out. But they're shorter blocks. You can see those axes have a lot of influence on |
204 | 00:37:50,280 --> 00:37:59,760 | price while we're in the premium side. But then we get down to the discount side over here. A bearish order block over here doesn't do anything to hold that |
205 | 00:37:59,760 --> 00:38:06,150 | price. Because it's in a discount to the algorithm we'll just keep pressing through. And that's what you want to be seeing. You want to be seeing all |
206 | 00:38:06,150 --> 00:38:14,760 | bearish order block for up candles right for down moods, you must see them being broken as potential resistance points, just giving what and every down candle |
207 | 00:38:14,940 --> 00:38:24,090 | providing support. So hopefully this has been insightful to you guys and help build some ideas about swing trading. I'm going to give you the sell side of the |
208 | 00:38:24,090 --> 00:38:33,870 | marketplace in lesson five. And then we're going to go into actual setup type scenarios where this is just the framework and how to interpret when prices |
209 | 00:38:33,900 --> 00:38:44,100 | really poised to move in a swing trading mindset. But if it isn't doing these types of things, you can't just go in here and take an order block or buy an old |
210 | 00:38:44,100 --> 00:38:55,920 | low once it's been traded below it and assumed it's going to be a swing trade. swing trades are by definition very rule based. They're not ambiguous. Okay? |
211 | 00:38:56,850 --> 00:39:05,610 | Sometimes day trades can be rather ambiguous, if there's going to be a lot of things that can flip back and forth intraday, because it's so noisy timeframe. |
212 | 00:39:06,210 --> 00:39:14,340 | When you're looking at these monthly, weekly and daily levels, there isn't a lot of them. So therefore, everybody has been waiting for these levels to be traded |
213 | 00:39:14,340 --> 00:39:23,970 | to on an institutional basis. That's why they're so sensitive, because everybody is waiting for that same level institutionally. And when they all pile in, who |
214 | 00:39:23,970 --> 00:39:32,850 | are those players, they're the very dogs that make this market run. And all we want to do is be a flea on their back and be a part of that move. So we watch |
215 | 00:39:32,850 --> 00:39:41,850 | and wait for these monthly, weekly daily levels when they occur. It's hard not to make money doing this. So hopefully this has been insightful to you guys. |
216 | 00:39:42,540 --> 00:39:45,090 | Until I talk to you next time. I wish you good luck and good trading |