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107-ICT Mentorship Core Content - Month 10 - Importance Of Multi-Asset Analysis

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2022-10-26 08:54
1 00:00:24,300 --> 00:00:35,760 ICT: Okay, folks, we have just finished the June content for the st. mentorship. And I want to take a couple minutes just to talk to you and kind of like a
2 00:00:35,760 --> 00:00:47,130 summary of everything that you've been introduced to and exposed to. And want to ask you, why don't you believe I made you go through the content that was shown
3 00:00:47,130 --> 00:01:00,900 in June? I believe that some of you felt like filler, like it wasn't necessary wasn't needed, or I'll come back to that later on ICT. And it's, it's
4 00:01:00,960 --> 00:01:10,710 unfortunate that some have felt that way. Because the purpose of having multi asset class analysis, that is the asset classes of the bonds, currencies,
5 00:01:10,710 --> 00:01:21,750 commodities, and stocks, is by looking at them as a whole, how they're interrelated. And all the things I covered this month, I want you to go back
6 00:01:21,750 --> 00:01:33,720 through and look for the symmetry between all four, because there's a common theme that I'm trying to draw your attention to, but you can't grasp it, and you
7 00:01:33,720 --> 00:01:48,000 can't appreciate it until you see it until you see the interconnections. And when they're most likely to be in sync with one another. What am I talking
8 00:01:48,000 --> 00:02:00,780 about? Risk on and risk off. Some of the things that you folks are in here, hoping to see right away, I want to see this, I need to see this, I have to be a
9 00:02:00,780 --> 00:02:11,250 witness of this, or I have to be taking trades. Some of you didn't listen. And I said it wouldn't be a trade signal service. And I want you to think about what
10 00:02:11,250 --> 00:02:22,740 was the point of all these lessons for this month. It wasn't that I was highlighting certain phenomenon that I like about each individual asset class.
11 00:02:24,900 --> 00:02:38,970 It's the fact that they both not only work in harmony with one another. But sometimes they decouple if there's a decoupling, in other words, if the bond
12 00:02:38,970 --> 00:02:54,210 market is going higher, that means that there's a scenario where it's less risk. interested, it's a risk off environment. So the market goes to buying bonds.
13 00:02:56,400 --> 00:03:07,350 When the bond markets going lower, then there's a risk on scenario. Risk on scenarios bring with it, the buying of stocks, the buying of foreign currencies.
14 00:03:09,270 --> 00:03:23,100 These back and forth ebb and flow type phenomenon have a reverberation, it goes through all four asset classes. And to discounted the think that it's something
15 00:03:23,130 --> 00:03:33,180 I'll come back to later on. I don't think I've really interested in learning commodities, I don't think I'm interested in looking at the s&p 500 I don't
16 00:03:33,180 --> 00:03:50,190 think I'm interested in looking at stocks. All of you know, I only trade Forex. And yet I still talk about the bond market commodities and stocks. Because it
17 00:03:50,190 --> 00:04:01,170 matters, it has a place. And some of you want to be one trick ponies, and be I'm only gonna be able to make money, fastest follow one thing, and I had to close
18 00:04:01,170 --> 00:04:11,070 my eyes, everything else around me? Well, to be a specialist, you still have to understand what the general market is going to do, most likely. And the
19 00:04:11,070 --> 00:04:22,200 importance of it as that when the markets are working well together. When all the asset classes are doing as they should risk on environments, everything
20 00:04:22,200 --> 00:04:38,310 should rally. Interest rate should be declining. If you're not seeing these things happening, if there isn't this beautiful dovetail with all four of the
21 00:04:38,310 --> 00:04:48,600 asset classes, then you're gonna have a very hard time finding opportunities where moves can be explosive, they can have a lot of magnitude, they don't last
22 00:04:48,600 --> 00:04:59,040 very long unless those conditions are there. And we have been going through a period of months where it's been very difficult to ascertain whether or not the
23 00:04:59,040 --> 00:05:07,560 market is risk or not. risk off. Sometimes it is, sometimes it isn't. Some of the asset classes are doing as they should, while others are doing something
24 00:05:07,560 --> 00:05:08,400 completely different.
25 00:05:10,590 --> 00:05:21,840 Some of the folks that are no longer with us have grown tiresome. They don't want to deal with this anymore. It's grinded them down. And they left for a
26 00:05:21,840 --> 00:05:30,420 reason. Because they're never going to be traders, they're never going to be able to do this. Because it takes a lot of wherewithal, it takes a lot of
27 00:05:30,420 --> 00:05:39,660 conviction. It takes hard work, you got to look at all four of these asset classes to get a grasp on what the general markets doing. You want explosive
28 00:05:39,900 --> 00:05:51,180 moves you want big, directional one sided markets, that's going to come by way of understanding the four asset classes. If you cannot read what those asset
29 00:05:51,180 --> 00:06:03,480 classes are doing, individually, and as a whole, collectively, what's the dance between them? Are they moving in symmetry? Are they working beautifully
30 00:06:03,480 --> 00:06:15,150 together? Or are we seeing a chaotic mess? The markets are doing whatever they want to do indiscriminant to whatever the other asset classes are doing? Why
31 00:06:15,150 --> 00:06:27,720 would you think that takes place? Why? Why would we see a multi asset class decoupling like that, because there's a lot of uncertainty. And when it's easy
32 00:06:27,720 --> 00:06:38,340 to make money, and there are times when it's like that all four asset classes will be working in harmony with one another, they'll be doing this they should,
33 00:06:39,090 --> 00:06:58,950 across the board. Dollar index goes higher, commodities go lower. Stocks go higher. Risk on risk off, stocks fall. currencies, foreign in nature rally when
34 00:06:58,950 --> 00:07:19,740 its risk on decline, when its risk off in dollar will rally. This mechanism that we look at in terms of the marketplace, it is highly efficient, and yet very
35 00:07:19,740 --> 00:07:30,840 hard to decipher. Because it takes a lot of work to be looking at other things, not just I want to be looking at only my Eurodollar I just want to I just want
36 00:07:30,840 --> 00:07:38,760 to trade Euro dollar, I don't care what the bond markets are doing. I don't care about any of that. Can you make money doing it? Yes, you can. Well, you
37 00:07:38,760 --> 00:07:48,960 understand when the large moves are going to take place and how long to hold on to them based on those conditions. Just looking at the euro, no. Some of you're
38 00:07:48,960 --> 00:07:57,540 trying to do that. Some of you are trying to skip to the head of the line, avoid all this hard work, because you don't want to roll your sleeves up. And it's
39 00:07:57,540 --> 00:08:06,180 necessary, you have to do these things. Because if you don't, when you have periods of drawdown, when you have periods of where the market is isn't giving
40 00:08:06,180 --> 00:08:21,510 you what you want, you're gonna lose your mind. You're gonna allow psychological things to impact your ability to trade, to make decisions, hold on to trades, or
41 00:08:21,510 --> 00:08:35,220 let go of them. Because you will have an absence of your understanding about the general market as a whole. I can't tell you, the dozens of emails I got
42 00:08:35,250 --> 00:08:48,840 throughout this entire month. Can I skip this month? Can I just not worry about this? Can I just pay for the next month and not be a part of this group. And I
43 00:08:48,840 --> 00:08:59,010 was saying the same thing, everyone. It's important. Because you felt that you were never going to be a commodity trader. So therefore commodity information is
44 00:08:59,010 --> 00:09:06,090 useless to you. And you're never going to Actually Trade the bond market. So everyone was interested in what I had to say about the bonds. And it's
45 00:09:06,090 --> 00:09:15,480 interesting as I got through the bond market content, then folks were like, well, do I have to pay attention to the rest of this? Yes, you do. And if you're
46 00:09:15,480 --> 00:09:24,960 having a struggling point where you don't want to do this, you don't want to look at the other asset classes because it's too much work. It's too much that
47 00:09:24,960 --> 00:09:35,250 I'm going to challenge you with this. You're going to struggle, you might have a hidden Miss success. You're gonna have periods where you might make a little bit
48 00:09:35,250 --> 00:09:48,600 of money. But you will always feel like there's something that doesn't quite click. And it's going to be this. You have to know what the markets going to do
49 00:09:48,960 --> 00:10:01,350 as a whole. And if there isn't decoupling in the markets or having erratic behavior, your assets are not working in harmony with one another It goes back
50 00:10:01,350 --> 00:10:08,580 to if that only is going on presently, or we're coming out of that, hopefully, at the time of this recording.
51 00:10:10,290 --> 00:10:21,150 What has it been saying all along? That's smart money is not willing to make large contributions to one side of the market or another. Or they're waiting on
52 00:10:21,150 --> 00:10:33,240 something. What are they waiting on? I'm not sure what it is they're waiting on. There's a lot of things on the horizon. Some of its war, some of its Brexit,
53 00:10:35,460 --> 00:10:45,840 Middle East, Trump being in office, maybe not being in office. There's a lot of things that's going on right now that it's making it difficult, and it's
54 00:10:45,840 --> 00:10:53,850 actually disinteresting. And I would admit that if I was coming up as a new trader, I would feel the impulse to say, Well, I'm really not going to pay
55 00:10:53,850 --> 00:11:00,870 attention to this. But I can tell you, there's a lot of things that I went through in my development that I felt that way about, but I later went back to
56 00:11:00,870 --> 00:11:14,250 them and caused me the greatest growth spurts. In my understanding as a trader. Part of the mentorship was for you to pay for me to give you the things that
57 00:11:14,250 --> 00:11:25,080 helped me get to a point where I can understand what the markets gonna do. You can see when I'm wrong, it's it's been glaringly obvious to periods where I'm
58 00:11:25,080 --> 00:11:35,370 not doing well. And it's because of the multi multi asset class analysis of these four asset classes. They're just doing whatever they want to do. But when
59 00:11:35,370 --> 00:11:51,090 there's periods where I can see everything, I can see it clearly what's going on. Example, it was this week, I do a lot to do this mentorship. And sometimes
60 00:11:51,090 --> 00:12:00,930 my attention is drawn into areas where I otherwise wouldn't be looking. But because I am a mentor, I do my best to try to give feedback and answers to
61 00:12:00,930 --> 00:12:10,200 questions by way of email. And some folks are calling me and some people were sending me texts. And there's a lot of you. And I do all those things and make
62 00:12:10,200 --> 00:12:25,920 lessons and do recordings and edit. And it's a lot. And I can only do so much as a human being I can't force you to do the things that I believe are unnecessary,
63 00:12:26,310 --> 00:12:33,240 you're going to have an opinion, you're not going to pay attention to this teaching, you're probably not even going to listen to this video, and your
64 00:12:33,240 --> 00:12:42,300 fingers in your ears, blah, blah, blah, want to hear. But it's something that's important, I wouldn't have done this month, if I didn't wholeheartedly believe
65 00:12:42,300 --> 00:12:55,620 that it was beneficial to your understanding. You'll probably never trade a bond contract in your life, you'll probably never trade stocks, you'll never manage
66 00:12:55,620 --> 00:13:06,270 your own self directed IRA. I guarantee you, there's some of us in here that are thinking that and I understand that. And that twisting your arm to do it. But it
67 00:13:06,270 --> 00:13:15,480 is important for you to know what these asset classes are doing as a whole. And you don't have to be staring at them all day long. Periodically check them see
68 00:13:15,480 --> 00:13:26,340 what's going on, get feedback from them. They should be moving in concert with one another. There's an ebb and flow that is necessary for the markets to be
69 00:13:26,340 --> 00:13:41,700 highly efficient. And when they're efficient. They create big moves, large moves, exaggerated moves, big ones, big huge profitable market moves. And
70 00:13:41,700 --> 00:13:54,000 they're easy to see coming as we outlined this week. I took a chance on some things in the last couple of weeks. And I was primarily working off of an
71 00:13:54,000 --> 00:14:04,080 intraday four hour chart to come away with my my analysis. And I said, You know what, I'm gonna spend some time with the s&p and I even looked at the FX market
72 00:14:04,200 --> 00:14:15,810 last week. And it forced me to have a period of time separation from FX. And then Saturday when I did my analysis as I normally would do. But I'm slammed
73 00:14:15,810 --> 00:14:26,370 there's a lot of slides this this month is over 200 slides in presentation. It doesn't take five minutes to do that some of you folks think that it's real easy
74 00:14:26,370 --> 00:14:34,950 for you to do it. And I thank you. I thank you for that vote of confidence that you think I can do these things in five minutes. I can't takes a lot of work a
75 00:14:34,950 --> 00:14:40,530 lot of effort and designing it and bringing things together to make it you know, user friendly.
76 00:14:42,030 --> 00:14:56,820 But I had a member sent me an email saying that, you know, I rushed out of here this morning, eager to go on vacation and I promised to do a US dollar CAD
77 00:14:56,820 --> 00:15:10,500 trade. And no I did and promised to do $1 CAD trade, I promised to look at the market and there would be probably a trade Friday for the dollar CAD. But using
78 00:15:10,650 --> 00:15:22,290 the asset classes as a whole, all four of them. I didn't see a trade this morning. And there was no trade this morning. It was a busy day consolidation
79 00:15:23,040 --> 00:15:39,480 ahead of a large, widely followed us holiday next week. But a lot of folks go on the sidelines by seeing all four asset classes, looking at what they've done,
80 00:15:40,110 --> 00:15:51,990 going into this morning, at the time of this recording on Friday, June 30 2017. There has no real indication of what the market should be reaching for it, it
81 00:15:51,990 --> 00:16:02,010 had already met my objective for the week, it already already traded down to the low I call for and went just a low a little bit below it. So it's fulfilled that
82 00:16:02,520 --> 00:16:13,770 if it's already met that that target, what am I going to trade, just because it hit the targets, it means going to go reverse in the other direction. I didn't
83 00:16:13,770 --> 00:16:28,230 feel it could go lower, based on looking at all for the asset classes, looking at the targets on individual currencies, the bond market all these things work
84 00:16:28,230 --> 00:16:38,400 together. Some of you don't trust the level of experience I have in terms of time, using this information. You watch a slide you think you know everything.
85 00:16:38,400 --> 00:16:47,610 So therefore, it has to be this it's got to be black or white. And I've said this at nauseam, it's not black and white. There's times when the market will
86 00:16:47,610 --> 00:16:57,390 appear black and white, when it seems easy, it's so obvious that it's going to go one direction. And those times will trick you. Because you'll think that it
87 00:16:57,390 --> 00:17:05,940 should be like that all the time. And this is the difficult part about trading, you have to work those times when it's like it. But when it's not like it, you
88 00:17:05,940 --> 00:17:15,300 need to dial it back. And the way you be able to determine those conditions is by rating the market in terms of risk on risk off. And you can't get that
89 00:17:15,300 --> 00:17:25,380 adequately enough. By just looking at one instrument, one payer, you have to look at the whole universe of speculation, currencies, commodities, bonds and
90 00:17:25,380 --> 00:17:35,550 stocks. This whole month was designed to draw your attention to the importance of knowing what all of them should be doing and what is it you should be looking
91 00:17:35,550 --> 00:17:45,420 for going into the marketplace, not looking for trades per se. But looking at the commodity market as a whole. Are commodities going higher, or they going
92 00:17:45,420 --> 00:17:58,140 lower generally. Are interest rates going up? Or interest rates going down? How's that affecting the dollar? Is the dollar going up? Or is it going down?
93 00:18:01,650 --> 00:18:13,290 What's going on with equities? Is equities finding in ease to rally? Or is it struggling to rally and in holding more of a consolidation? All these things
94 00:18:13,290 --> 00:18:24,990 matter? They are they weigh out in the grand scheme of things in terms of feedback. Some of you're learning this, for the first time, you've never had any
95 00:18:24,990 --> 00:18:32,760 kind of technical analysis, indoctrination to the marketplace, there's nothing that you've ever done, is it the first time you ever done it, and you hit your
96 00:18:32,760 --> 00:18:39,510 spending? Some of you that have been trading for a long time, know that there are periods in the markets where it just gets really hard and you can't do
97 00:18:39,510 --> 00:18:51,510 anything right. And some of you think that you've traded before got lucky. And you think you know what it is that should be happening in this mentor ship. And
98 00:18:51,510 --> 00:18:59,490 you already had your opinion. You came in with a preconceived notion about what it is that you should be getting out of it and you had no idea what you're gonna
99 00:18:59,490 --> 00:19:11,370 be learning. It's the same individuals that have discounted this month's content. Feeling it as well. It's something apart from ethics, so therefore,
100 00:19:11,370 --> 00:19:23,100 it's not important, when that's the furthest thing from the truth. intermarket analysis is absolutely crucial to you understanding what is going to be taught
101 00:19:23,400 --> 00:19:24,060 next month.
102 00:19:26,940 --> 00:19:37,200 Don't you want to be in the asset classes and those leadership on the upside or downside based on the things that have been taught thus far? Don't you want to
103 00:19:37,200 --> 00:19:46,080 focus where all the large institutions gonna be pouring money into it? Because they're the ones it's going to explode. They're going to be moving huge, fast.
104 00:19:46,620 --> 00:19:57,990 Lots of distance magnitude, the velocity of these types of moves. That's what you're looking for. You want to find them and in between there you want to be
105 00:19:57,990 --> 00:20:08,550 able to breed a bread and butter Type trader find consistent setups here. And there was just as liquidity runs, one shot, one kills, low risk, high
106 00:20:08,550 --> 00:20:20,220 probability day trade, swing trade, give me something like a hole for a couple months. But if you don't understand the relationship of all four these asset
107 00:20:20,220 --> 00:20:28,500 classes, and what those asset classes should be speaking to you, when you look at them, that's what I focused on this month, I didn't give you a top down,
108 00:20:28,710 --> 00:20:47,280 here's the crash course on trading commodities. First notice day last trading day of the month, contract rollover. I didn't go into all those things. I went
109 00:20:47,340 --> 00:21:02,880 in talked about the most salient important things from each asset class. That's it. Notice what I've taught the likelihood of a directional move per asset
110 00:21:02,880 --> 00:21:17,370 class, and the importance of knowing what to look for and when it should happen. What happens when you start seeing just to get two of the four asset class doing
111 00:21:17,850 --> 00:21:29,430 one thing, but the other two aren't doing as they should? Is that a very symmetrical market? No. But what happens if we start seeing a third? Start doing
112 00:21:29,430 --> 00:21:39,870 it? Well, that's now very interesting, isn't it? Because it brings us to the question of okay, it's been uncertain now. But now we have a third asset class
113 00:21:39,870 --> 00:21:50,430 starting to behave as it should. So we're starting to come out of this chaotic uncertainty. So therefore, more of smart money's money is being put to work.
114 00:21:51,030 --> 00:22:02,400 Because we are just the flea on their pack. They're the big dogs, not us, we're never going to be a big dog like they are. They're large corporations, banks,
115 00:22:02,940 --> 00:22:18,120 institutions, insurance companies. Pension funds. They're deep pockets, folks. And if you haven't figured it out yet, that's what I'm punting. I'm looking for
116 00:22:18,120 --> 00:22:28,740 that. If I can't find them, there's not leaving clear tracks. Keep my hands in my pocket. That doesn't look good as a mentor. Sometimes, it doesn't look good
117 00:22:28,740 --> 00:22:40,170 as a rockstar trader. But what do you think I've been doing for the last 20 plus years, just keep staying in the game? That because if I don't do that, just like
118 00:22:40,170 --> 00:22:53,340 if you don't do that, you won't be around here. 20 years from now. You won't be here next year. Maybe you will, looking at something else, insisting there's
119 00:22:53,340 --> 00:23:10,170 something else out there better for you. Listen, if I'm not teaching it, it's not important. If I'm teaching it, it's important. I don't have enough time in
120 00:23:10,170 --> 00:23:20,910 the day to add stuff to what I already do. I don't have that the time is not a luxury for me anymore. So I made a promise to everyone that I was going to teach
121 00:23:20,910 --> 00:23:28,950 everything that I know and what makes me tick. As an analyst when I look at price, what makes me believe that price is going to behave a certain way. Why do
122 00:23:28,950 --> 00:23:35,880 I think it's gonna go up to that level? Why they think it's gonna go down to that level? Why do I think it's gonna go sideways? Why am I avoiding trading?
123 00:23:39,060 --> 00:23:48,840 Like today because of my experience, knowing what these asset classes are going to do ahead of a weekend a hell of a holiday, even though the holidays, not
124 00:23:48,840 --> 00:24:05,490 Monday, not Friday, today. It's next Tuesday. And I know by experience what that will do to the markets. And I saw signs of it across all four asset classes
125 00:24:05,490 --> 00:24:19,950 today. Early. And because I had to do two videos today, and how to do your PDF slides. All those things require time. I'm not trying to hide the workload, I
126 00:24:19,950 --> 00:24:22,470 can't hide it. It's a lot. I got to do it.
127 00:24:24,030 --> 00:24:33,930 But I can only do it in the 24 hours with sleep and eaten. Do the things on the normal human being able to do and you're gonna have to find new time to do those
128 00:24:33,930 --> 00:24:44,010 same things in your trading. You got to take a peek at these four asset classes may not want to do it. Maybe your business you're running. It's just It's worn
129 00:24:44,040 --> 00:24:55,500 out. But why are you going to trade without having a greater understanding about what the market should be doing? as a whole? That's nonsense. It's foolishness
130 00:24:55,500 --> 00:25:09,810 to do that. So while you may never be a star trade, or trade commodities, or even trade a treasury bond, it's important for you to understand what they are
131 00:25:09,810 --> 00:25:20,130 doing, what's their seasonal tendency? are they behaving seasonally? Because if they're not, that means that we have a decoupling, and it's gonna be hard for
132 00:25:20,130 --> 00:25:30,180 the markets to find a one sided move with great deal magnitude. And I'm not saying you won't see trades, it's just you won't see really strong moves. Like
133 00:25:30,180 --> 00:25:41,580 we outlined this past Saturday that we saw come to fruition, beautifully across many pairs. All of our targets were hit. And they weren't small moves, they were
134 00:25:41,580 --> 00:25:52,350 large moves. And it comes by way of looking at all four asset classes. Listen, if you don't want to do these types of things, hey, I'm not gonna twist your
135 00:25:52,350 --> 00:26:05,280 arm. You do what to chew. I'm here doing what I said I was gonna do. But for you to understand what the PDF files from the top down work will give you in August,
136 00:26:06,510 --> 00:26:13,740 you need to start thinking about these four asset classes, because there's reference points that you have to know in relationship to what they should be
137 00:26:13,740 --> 00:26:29,640 telling you about the general market as a whole. This is my suggestion. This month has a lot of teachings a lot of lessons. And I want you to go through this
138 00:26:30,420 --> 00:26:44,910 again. And I want you to try to ferret out the points of discussion that I have for each asset class. And try to draw parallels to it because if you start doing
139 00:26:44,910 --> 00:26:54,840 that, you'll see where I'm leading you to with the PDF files in August. You won't be too near the minor detail. But you'll have a general understanding of
140 00:26:54,870 --> 00:27:06,180 that way when you do go through the August templates. You'll have that moment of astonishment workers. I got it now I see it. I see it now. Now you'll then
141 00:27:06,180 --> 00:27:14,070 you'll go back to the June content and say Oh, wow. Now I know exactly why he was talking about that and why he was showing this and then you'll feel silly
142 00:27:14,280 --> 00:27:21,450 that you felt that this was a waste of your time. So until next time, I wish you good luck and good trading